Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 HOT DAME showed a lot of GRIT to get the win two weeks ago at Belterra Park and will look to continue that win streak here. Running back to her recent efforts makes her a player, though she will still have to hold her form and could be peaked in her form cycle. In addition she should take pace pressure with #5 FREE LOVE in the field and even #1 JULIAISON could show more early speed on the stretch out with the rail draw.

#4 DIALED INNA was asked to show speed in her most recent start on July 12^th, however that is not her preferred RunStyle. She should sit back and track the pacesetting pair with first run. Her main track “fast” races from earlier this season stack up with figures in today’s OFR and in line with the current numbers from HOT DAME.

In addition to HOT DAME, trainer Javier Hernandez will send out #3 PELLETIER one that has not run the higher figures as her stablemate though to her credit has shown progression as of late. Number wise she is not far off #2 LUCY’S LOOKIN LEFT, one that has limited route form and still must prove herself at the distance, while also looking to require a top effort. 

Recognizing #2 MUD HUT sits as the horse to beat and one that could even present a pace advantage. While has been most competitive this season at today’s $6250k N2L level, she has come up short on the win end and visually left something to be desired in her more recent starts lacking finish.

Number wise, #3 HIP HOP EMMY has the ability to improve in that category returning from the layoff and building off the April figures. She showed run on debut after breaking slow (SLOG) and racing GREEN in what appears to be a PREP. She move forward in the April 30^th second start staying on as the BOS setting a Very Fast pace both early and late. She was clear at the wire, though tiring as she was drifting out.

#5 SISTER SAINT is often her own worst enemy with the habit of breaking SLOG/TROUBLE_S and leaving herself too much to do late, as was the case as the favorite here on August 3^rd. The added ground and experience over the course should assist, though another shorter number is projected as she has  run some of the higher figures in this field.

#4 GYURZA has a chance to step up today and could be overlooked off the recent running lines. She is another that could see her race lost at the gate with a slower start, though did show some run earlier this year sprinting and will return to the one turn distance for the first time since April. #7 HOLY IMAGE is also worth a mention dropping to the lowest level of her career and should move her up as it did with the 4^th place result here on July 6^th, though overall is still lighter than some of today’s rivals as more of an underneath player. 

There are two big class droppers with #5 AVIANO and #6 HIGH BROW a move not uncommon towards the end of the meet. Of the two and in this event as a whole, HIGH BROW is likely to receive the bulk of the attention and while the drop could assist he has shown declining form as of late and that paired with a shorter price creates some reservations, especially with alternatives in the field.

As far as AVIANO, he was claimed for $7500 back in March to note with the class change here. In addition he was not given a chance to run after taking contact, TROUBLE_S at the break and eased up shortly after. It is encouraging to see the published work on August 9^th from the gate after that race  and even Reyes given the call, a potentially live call for a rider looking for a second win this season.

#7 FIRST MASAMUNE also finds class relief and given “first” preference in the selections. The class drop should be the right move for a horse looking for his first win this season. He has come up short and run competitive races only needing to excuse one race, the recent sprint on August 2^nd when he broke SLOG and was not asked/NO_PUSH and will see Bendezu back in the saddle.

#1 CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another that has run some solid races this season and just come up short on the win end. His biggest challenge are the runners dropping in class, though expects to run his race and should find a similar trip to his most recent starts stalking behind the projects pacesetters, #4 BLOOMING GARDEN and also would not be surprised to see HIGH BROW show early speed here as well.  #3 MEMPHIS PRAYER also should trip to find a similar trip with Esquivel taking over, though as shown in the OptixNOTES, is another runner that has the gate issues and SLOG pattern to consider with value. 

A game of two as three barns are represented by a pair of runners in this race. Rivelli will give Mojica the call aboard #6 PURPLE OCTOPUS suggesting intent as he was assigned aboard #4 NEON DEION when that one was a vet scratch on August 13^th, a main track 5f Special Weight race. As far as the works, PURPLE OCTOPUS has started to improve the works as of late and with the return to training missing the month of May.

Perez has the outside pair of #7 BANANA PLAN and #8 DRAFTSMAN and both colts has a strong look in here and appear at least one is well-intended for this race. The two show limited and similar work tabs though a pattern not uncommon for this barn to knock off what is published on paper.

Block will also have #1 LUCKY ROMANCE and #5 TOUGH LITTLE NUT, two runners that are capable first out look well-prepared off the works and with live riders assigned both will require visuals in the paddock to upgrade/downgrade for this race and more specifically today’s sprint conditions.

As far as the other two, the runners with experience: #2 ADIOS COOL ARROWS needed to show more in his debut to support with confidence and also one to follow on track as he was a late scratch here last Sunday nearing post time at 15-1. #3 KING OF THE PALACE also must show more off his PRM debut, though to his credit he had shown some run and through adversity and ground loss navigating around a loose horse. 

Looking at the Plot, #1 CONSTITUTIONAL LAW should fall into a favorable stalking trip though looking through his OptixNOTES he has shown distance limitations and that is the prime concern here assessing as a top contender. Similar distance/stamina concerns for #5 CONI’S COUP one that could be a shorter number in this race and lacks an edge in that role, when looking at his Plot position compared to others and with today’s race shape. The early pace should be Contentious (Sun) and honest (40 SpeedRate)  with stretch out runners, #3 EASY FAST and #4 NULLARBOR joining more confirmed front running types, #6 BOONE’S PATH and #8 MINNESOTA MOON.

#9 PATH TO SUCCESS has struggle to get the win or earn that B OptixGRADE at the N1X allowance condition this season and noted with the DROP Keyword shown in the Past 3 Runlines. While he does return under similar allowance conditions today, today’s OFR is lower than some of the events this season to suggest he can hold his form though still requires a lot in his favor to win.

Number wise #2 STAR NATION does not have those big figures that jump off the page, though has run races in line with today’s competition. He has plenty of stamina on his side for today’s distance and even form coming into this race. While more was expected from him on August 6^th, he could have some excuse with the WIDE trip and racing against (X_FLOW) the dynamic – a race shape that was Very Slow early and late. His RunStyle and closing kick is similar to rivals PATH TO SUCCESS and #10 WESLAN and should be the higher odds of that group.

Number wise #7 T LAW is also softer than many of today’s rivals, though to his credit he is a lightly raced three-year-old that has run well in each race to date. This will be his second start off the layoff and for Kirby and a lateral move as far as today’s OFR identical to the July 30^th race where T LAW showed run making a WIDE MOVE and the timing off (TACTIC-) and potentially intent with the rider change coming back today. 

Looking at OptixPLOT, #5 TAPE TO TAPE appears to hold a pace advantage in this race and that edge over some of the other front running types shown in Quad I/III. He fits on his current form and coming off a solid, B OptixGRADE in the Work All Week stakes last month – good effort though just getting caught by #3 W W CANDY making his WIDE CLOSE and benefit from the race FLOW.

#1 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK also fits today’s race shape sitting as a Quad II Square and has class and the highest 99 OptixFIG shown in the Past 3 Runlines to make him a main contender in this race. He has that positional speed and should have first run on W W CANDY as well as #4 NAVY SEAL.

With a similar Plot position, #6 BRESLAU will look for a similar trip, though one that must run back to a top effort to compete. Some intent could be in play showing up on this circuit for Contreras and with regular jockey, Esquivel along for the ride. #9 DEVIL’S TOWER has some back numbers that put him in the mix and holds upside from the TROUBLE trip and rough TROUBLE_S in the Work All Week stakes, though off the visuals and with a similar OFR, he could be better suited towards an underneath award today.

#2 SHARP HERO comes into this race with figures that fit on par and off the highest last out 94 OptixFIG. While that makes her a fit on numbers, class wise this is a step up and not sold the connections have this quality mare in the right race today in against the older horses. 

Perez has been patient and determined to find a grass race for #4 PIRATE MARMALADE that today looks to be that day. He was scratched twice with races taken off the turf before accepting the surface switch making his debut last month. Stablemate #1 MANEUVER was also scheduled to debut on the turf and will have that surface switch today as well as some foundation on his side for this third start.

#7 OVERDUE HONOR also has been looking to get back to the turf and one that is more established on form and figures with some of the higher recorded numbers in this field. Those factors all around make him the more obvious type in this race though he has come up short at the shorter price, has the layoff lines and not much upside as a six-year-old gelding to create some reservations when picking holes in the favorite.

The long layoff was in play for #8 DARK SOLUTION coming back in June and has still not run back to his races prior to the break. Some excuses could be given for the main track starts and projected to move up on the turf (and was well backed) on August 10^th, though noting his prerace antics (WASTED) he gave off signs that was not going to be his day and that carried into the trip as well with a potential excuse attached to the August 10^th race.

#9 SCENIC JUSTICE has been the most competitive on the turf, though has come up short on the win when at shorter prices this season. Those races also run at HS Indy where he was able to race at the statebred level and finds a higher OFR shifting to this circuit. In addition, he has not shown much progression number wise and his figures this season pair up not stand out over others in this field that expect to be much longer odds. One of those is #2 SMILING STORMY keying off his debut number, that 63 in line with many in this field and can be given a pass for the TROUBLE_S and X_WIDE trip on the main track in June and has since scratched from two races taken off the turf in July. The 67 OptixFIG earned by #5 STROLLNTOTHEMARKET stacks up with others in here and from his visuals should take to the TURF as makes his first start here on the grass. 

The outside three all have speed in here but they also appear to be the best three in the race. With that said, the race could still have the pace fall apart as 2-LUCY'S LOOKIN LEFT looks to be in a great stalking spot and closing late. Her race two back was solid at this level as she was only a neck behind Free Love at the wire. Maybe she's in an upset spot today. 6-HOT DAME has speed and has been very good this year, running first or second in nice straight starts. She ran huge here back in April before a trip to Ohio but returns today with a big shot, if she can shake loose from the other speed. 4-DIALED INNA has speed but doesn't need the lead to win. She runs for a barn that has had a great meet and comes off a race where she battled into the lane last out. Curios to see where she settles early in here today.

Not a great bunch here and also not much pace to speak of either. Have to think 2-MUD HUT inherits the lead and possibly cruises the entire way around. She ran well last out, chasing the lone speed, but she may become the speed today. 4-GYURZA turns back to a sprint as she drops back in class as well today. With the bug rider in the saddle, she may rate a bit closer early and hang around late. 5-SISTER SAINT closed some ground to finish third last out as the 6-5 favorite. She's in a similar situation once again as there's not a ton of pace to chase. Let's see if the added 16th off that start is the great equalizer.

I'm torn with what to do in regards to High Brow. I think you either have to pick him and single him or not use him at all. I went for the later of the two as it could backfire on me. Going to look to 7-FIRST MASAMUNE as he takes the class drop into today's card. He has some tactical speed and this race has no committed front runner. Let's see if he rates close early and takes over in the lane. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER was claimed out of his last but remains at the same level once again. He will need pace to chase as he figures to sit back early and close late. 1-CHRISTMAS PRESENT is another who could sit closer early and look to battle the entire way. Troubled starts have compromised him in his last couple but he merits a look if he can get away well today.

Babies on the turf with a solid field set to line up. Seems like every time Manny Esquivel comes in to ride at Hawthorne he has success so I'm giving the nod to 5-TOUGH LITTLE NUT on debut. Breeding suggests win early and also turf breeding as Block runners have had a great meet on the grass. Let's see what he looks like in the paddock and warming up. 6-PURPLE OCTOPUS and 4-NEON DEION have been working together, with Purple Octopus outworking his stablemate. Rivelli always good with young runners and with Mojica riding Purple Octopus, I'll look to that one over Neon Deion to run 2-3.

An excellent field with a lot of stakes quality racehorses. The distance is the key as at six furlongs 5-TAPE TO TAPE should have enough speed to make the top and never look back. He's been strong in his last three and nearly held on going a 16th further in his last. Expect him to shake loose in here and wire the field. 3-W W CANDY was all heart in running down Tape to Tape last out as Abel Lezcano gave him an incredible ride. He needs that pace to chase once again as he figures to close well. The only question is if he can catch the frontrunner in the lane or not. 7-WILDWOOD SICILIAN has tactical speed and could rate the closest early to Tape to Tape. He has run well at the distance but comes off a layoff into here and will need his best to compete with the top two.

Tough with unproven runners but worth a shot to look for a price. Going to give a chance to 1-MANEUVER as he looks to get back on the turf today. He ran well in both career starts and gets the hot riding Abel Lezcano in the saddle. He figures to sit back early but there looks to be enough pace in this race to close into late. 7-OVERDUE HONOR has had turf intentions in his last couple but stayed in when each came off the grass. There were some questions to be answered as he returned off the long layoff but he seems to be rounding back into form and should be sitting on a big race. 9-SCENIC JUSTICE is at his best on the grass and we will see how he handles the move to the sprint. He closed too late in his last but has gone favored in three straight and figures to take action once again.

Nice little race if the field stays intact. I’m giving a slight nod to 4-DIALED INNA. She’s going to be racing with blinkers for the first time in her career. She owns decent speed but think that they’ll have her tracking what could be a heated speed duel between Hot Dame and Free Love. 6-HOT DAME could be the quickest of the two and she’s been a bear on the front end. She won 10 of her 39 starts but five of ten, along with four seconds, this year. 5-FREE LOVE didn’t handle turf in last but she was in good form prior. Won two of her three races at the distance and three of eight at Hawthorne. 

2-MUD HUT could break through. She’s been trying to earn her second victory for a while, she graduated almost two years ago, but she has finished second all four times she ran at this level. Maybe this will be her day. 5-SISTER SAINT was favored in last but wound up finishing a bit behind Mud Hut. However, that was her first local trip and she was making her first start in a month with only one dull drill during that span. Could be fitter for this trip. 3-HIP HOP EMMY takes on winners for the first time. It’s been almost four months since her last start but her recent drills have been decent and she is returning to the races at the right level.  

It looks like it’s 6-HIGH BROW’s race to lose. Beaten favorite in four of seven races this year drops a few levels. Think she’ll finally make amends and maybe go home with different owners. 7-FIRST MASAMUNE also drops. He hasn’t been quite as competitive as top choice but he should be expected to improve dramatically at this level. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER was claimed from last and returns at the same level. He finished third in last but only by a neck and the winner of that race came right back to win again. Late runner needs some pace help but seems likely to get it. 

Heard 6-PURPLE OCTOPUS is a runner and he’s certainly been working like it. He’s been outworking older with regularity. His barn brings them ready. Guessing he graduates at a short price. The other runner from the barn, 4-NEON DEION, doesn’t sport the quick works of top choice but he does race for the top connections and he’ll utilize an Eclipse mentioned apprentice in the irons. Wouldn’t take him lightly. Trainer Chris Block also has a couple runners in here. Both have been training regularly and can be expected to be ready at first asking. 5-TOUGH LITTLE NUT has been training well for a barn that brings them ready. 

Going to try with 10-WESLAN. In this speed-filled race. I would expect someone to come flying late and Weslan does appear to be the best closer in the field. He has been finishing behind some in here but could show more in a race featuring a stronger early pace. 3-EASY FAST meets winners for the first time while also trying two turns. This race has multiple front runners but he could turn out to be the quickest of them. 5-CONI'S COUP carried his speed much farther in last, his second start of the year, and held on for second. In his third start of the year, he could take it all the way. 

Great race! Don’t know if the five-pound “bug” allowance will make much difference in this race but the distance certainly will. 5-TAPE TO TAPE led for all but the last couple jumps in last but that race was at six and a half furlongs and this race is a sixteenth shorter. He likely holds the speed advantage once again. This time he might not get caught. 3-W W CANDY passed them all including top choice in last. He has been far more successful on this track and at this distance than top choice. He will be flying late. Could get there again. 1-CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK is the leading money winner in the field. However, the huge majority of his wins came versus Indiana breds, two of the remaining wins were at Will Rogers Downs and he had one allowance win at Oaklawn last year. Has competitive speed figures but not 100% sure he belongs with these. 

7-OVERDUE HONOR ran fourth, splitting the field, in his lone turf start. However, he took a year and a half off after that race. He's had two races this year since coming back. Both were scheduled for turf but both were moved to the main track. This will be his first race back on turf. Hopefully he does well. 1-MANEUVER completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle. He raced competitively in both starts but could be ready for a much stronger effort. 3-A P BLAZING GREEN might be the quickest of these. He’s making his 12th start as a maiden but he has been competitive recently. He was entered in turf sprints in his last three but all those races were moved to dirt. Today we’ll see what he can do on the lawn.