Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 BIA BOLT RUNNER returns with a race under her belt and that looks to be key going back to the visuals from August 2^nd. Santiago was able to get familiarity that day and should prove key as they return today with the shorter distance and must be more assertive getting her into the race. Also returning for a second start off the layoff; #5 CANDY KICK as one that looks to benefit from the race and the changes for today’s event.

As far as the early pace, #6 SUNSET PAYNTER is not a proven front runner though with the stretch out in distance and back class could see herself forwardly placed in this race with the complexion of the field. #8 INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU and could take up a role forwardly placed once again, though overall can be on the softer side with just a select pair of races in her carer that has her competitive with the others today. Number wise similar could be said for #7 LOTTA ROSES though should see a move forward all around coming back from the common race on August 2^nd where she did not have a chance to compete given her trip that day and SPACED dynamic. 

#5 BERNIE LOMAX stands out on current form paired with the class drop. The connections are likely making this move to get a win, a belated win for this horse that has run well this season. He ran  well against a well-intended Blackteca on April 13^th and closed late on the front running winner, Fastnfurious at Fan Duel settling for place in both events. He had a look returning here on July 26^th though was compromised at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) chasing inside on a course that was playing fast and tough to make up ground on and was given minimal (NO_PUSH) ask from the rider.

#2 OVERCALENDARED could be “over the top” coming back on shorter rest from a hard fought battle just two weeks ago at Belterra Park. He broke slow and RUSH to the lead staying on through a fast (X_FLOW) pace as the BOS to get caught late in what could be a taxing effort in a race he appeared well meant in. He should find pace pressure with #3 LIMA ZULU and #6 BOURBON TEDDY, in addition to BERNIE LOMAX one that should be more assertively ridden today.

#3 UNCLE NICK is one with a look in here as he has started to show progress, interest, and improvement late. #1 TEA AFTER BALLET is tougher to trust on the win end with his RunStyle from off the pace (Quad II) and the shorter distance, though has been able to run on late for minors, an outcome that is not out of the question here. 

Going to take a swing with #3 SENSE OF SELF returning in this spot. She has struggled to find the form this year from last year though has had some subtle excuses. She returned in her seasonal debut in April on the main track in a spot and timing that suggested “prep” and ran to that from a visual standpoint on hold (TACTIC-) and showed a sneaky CLOSE (and GALLOP+) that does not appear in the running line or finishing position. She projected to IMPROVE especially when returned to the turf on May 25^th. She was not given a fair chance to compete that day with the rider TACTIC- that followed a check, TROUBLE_S at the start. The barn comes back in this spot at the end of the meet with a rider still looking for a win and with the class drop – this can go one of two ways and at the expected longer odds willing to roll the dice.

There are plenty of other ways to land in this race and much “safer” options. #7 COMMAND POINT figures to be the public default given the connections, the dominant win under similar conditions back in June and returning from a place finish as well as the return of Loveberry. #5 EMBARRASSING has shown run at this level here this season and should get back to competitive ways today. #4 BLOODY MARY MORNIN has been less consistent as of late and noted with the repetitive layoff lines, though coming back to the turf from the main track (NO_HANDLE) 20-days ago should be to her benefit and looks to move up here.

#4 APRIL’S GEM was well prepared, spotted and ridden (PERFECT) with the return to the turf in a second start off the layoff for Rosas last month. She would be no surprise to hold her form and compete #6 ROMANTIC ATTACK should benefit from the class DROP and going back to her “most recent” win, the race here last May was run under similar claiming conditions to today. 

#5 SHACKLEFORD STRONG has lived up to his name this season with a strong showing with nearly five straight wins looking to keep up that record here. He is tough to knock with that consistency and with his RunStyle (Quad I Square) in today’s field. Class wise this could be seen as a slight step up and with that the case he must hold his form and run a top effort to win. His biggest threat could come from a fresh horse in #4 VIOLENT GIGI shipping in for Contreras. He bring a level of class and figures that make him competitive here returning to top form off the layoff. He also has tactical speed and the ability to finish (Quad II Square) to work a trip.

Trip is key for #7 TRY TRY AGAIN one that has also been competitive at this starter allowance level and finding some subtle class relief from the higher OFR in the $20k claiming event last month. 

#4 FOLLOW THE SIGNS could get lost on the board in this full field. Following his season, the connections have been waiting to return to the turf and finally finding a grass race last month, they had to run higher than ideal against allowance company. The DROP should move him forward and even carries upside from the legit EX – EXCUSE with TROUBLE+ on July 16^th. FOLLOW THE SIGNS beat a main rival here, #10 GRAND HIDEAWAY in a similar $10k turf sprint here last October. #12 DRAGON DREW also shares some of those common running lines and one that has shown run this season, though requires to show more to win and needs a lot in his favor given no favors with the outside post.

#1 EXPROMPT is at the right level and in current form to get the win today. With that said, value is required as trip/pace figures to be the main hurdle with his RunStyle paired with the rail draw. #2 IAN GLASS has been without a win in over a year and likely part of the reason for the significant class drop, dropping to the lowest level of his career today. With that drop he also has been  just common as of late and losing ground late without excuse, something that did not seem a factor of class, rather a lack of interest.

Loveberry jumps back aboard #3 CLEAR N CONVINCING as he returns from injury. He has had success aboard this horse in the past. Most of that success has been at the route distance and going back to Arlington Park prior to 2021. He does hold a sprint win over that AP course at this 5.5f distance, when closing from well off the pace and had a fast pace that day to close into. Looking towards a “closer” #6 STAR OF KODIAK could be that horse and longer odds of the two. He will return to his preferred surface/distance off the freshening and back in at a lower claiming level that should have him in the right spot for his abilities. #8 REMEMBER THE MAINE also has a strong closing kick, though much, much tougher to trust on the win end as his most recent win was back in July 2021.

The return to the turf could also benefit #7 AZREAL looking to get back to his top form. The timing and step up in class wheeling back in two weeks for the $20k event on July 19^th did not appear ideal and those factors were further compounded by the TROUBLE_S. 

The turf-to-dirt move has been effective for #3 MISTER KELLY in the past and could signal intent with that move here by Winebaugh. As far as form MISTER KELLY has been competitive this season under similar conditions and his 2022 finale win was at today’s class level. He has shown enough tactical speed to work a trip and try and secure first run on the pacesetters, #5 CAT MAN DO and #6 W W HOTSHOT and the jump on #2 BLOW TORCH and #7 LIKE A SALTSHAKER – with #1 LYKAN a much deeper closer in this race/field.

#8 ENJOY THE MUSIC comes back with a slight freshening and in this spot noting a scratch from an OC$10k turf sprint on August 2^nd. That change could suggest intent, however the move to the main track is a surface this horse has not performed well over in the past. Not only does he show 0-for-4 on the dirt, but his figures also dropped on that surface and rebounded shifting back to turf or synthetic. 

#1 MY MORNING GAL is worth trying to get creative with as she returns to Hawthorne and given another try on the turf. Physically she appears capable to handle and even move up on the turf with her lone turf start, her second career start and placement was a first against winners taking on allowance company at HS Indy, the main debut win at FanDuel/Fairmount back in 2020. Class wise she comes into this race with a slight step up though has some back class as she did win the Debutante stakes here in 2020.

#4 WAY TOO SMARTE also has some back class, the 2022 Oakbrook stakes winner. She also holds some upside off her form this season and can benefit from today’s distance change (SHORTER) returning to a sprint.

#5 BALI BABY Has shown progress this season and seems to be racing herself into form. She was a mental mess (MANIC) making her return back on July 9^th losing her race before it started and then losing it again in running. She stepped up showing early speed on August 3^rd though also the visuals to suggest she prefers turf. She moved up on the grass two weeks ago, though as far as class was not on the allowance level for the win and should have herself in the right spot today back at the claiming level. #6 SHE’S WANDAFUL, the winner of that August 9^th allowance race was able to benefit from an EASY_LEAD and LONE trip to hold and should find more pace pressure today with #8 PRINCESS STELLA, #10 STACK SHACK and even MY MORNING GAL in the field.

The pace might not be enough for #3 MIZZEN ASH to target as she cuts back in distance and projects to make her run from off the pace – a trip that is also noted for #9 RARE ACTION ATTACK, Quad IV Square.

#7 GET NONE has benefit from favorable trips in her recent wins. She could fall into another favorable trip (Quad II Square) here though she will also step up in class slightly for the $20k tag and again gives up recency (something not uncommon, though not always favorable) off the 90-day, three month layoff. The class change is also for her stablemate #2 GOOD MONGOLIA, on that has recency on her side though those current numbers sit on the lower end of the OFR and compared to the others in this field. 

Starting off a great wagering card on the grass as there are four turf races on the evening. There's not much pace in here which flatters the chances of 6-SUNSET PAYNTER as she makes her second start at this level and stretches back out. She was compromised at the start in her last as she hit the gate and got away last in the sprint. With a clean break today, along with the move back to two turns, I expect a much better effort. 5-CANDY KICK appears to be in a drop, hopefully win, and get claimed position as the meet nears its end. This barn has been very solid but this is quite the plunge in class after being claimed for $40k last October. 8-INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU has run her best races on the grass. She closed with a rush in her last but that was off an insanely fast pace upfront. I expect she rates closer early in here and contends in the lane.

Sometimes you just have to give the nod to the favorite and move on. 5-BERNIE LOMAX won't provide much value but is the best horse in the race. He has a couple of poor lines but 4 of his last 6 starts have been solid as he has earned back the $15k claim price from January. A win and a claim here puts the connections ahead in the end. 2-OVER CALENDARED has tactical speed as he comes back from Belterra for this spot. There are some others that may be faster early, but a stalking trip will put him in position to contend late. 4-LIMA ZULU runs his best when forwardly placed and may be pushed to show speed in here. The connections are having a strong meet and the price should be right.

We welcome jockey Jareth Loveberry back to the saddle and hopefully back to the winner's circle as he returns from injury aboard 7-COMMAND POINT. The horse has been solid on the year and ran a fine race against $20k company last out. With really no early pace to speak of in here, expect her to rate close and draw clear in the lane. 2-APRIL'S GEM was a good winner at the distance last out. She get the solid riding Hernandez in the saddle, who has been very good this meet and is another that may rate a bit closer to the early pace today. 6-ROMANTIC ATTACK takes the class drop as she comes off a solid effort against allowance-company in her last. Her running style should put her just behind the early pacesetters as she will look to get the jump on the closers in the lane.

This one appears to be a slam dunk and as long as there's clear sailing, I find it very tough for this field to defeat 5-SHACKLEFORD STRONG. A great claim for $5,000 earlier in the meet, he has defeated starter company in three straight, doing it impressively. As long as he doesn't have a terrible break from the gate I expect he is in full control. 7-TRY TRY AGAIN has been so consistent this year and defeated Shackleford Strong four races back. He needs some pace to chase which is the one concerning factor in here but he could settle in the second flight and close ground to finish underneath in the gimmicks. 4-VIOLENT GIGI may be the one who can push things upfront as he returns off a bit of a layoff into here. If he can get back to those races at the end of 2022 or early this season in Oaklawn, it puts him in with a shot.

A really strong Starter race with a decent amount of pace but 6-W W HOTSHOT has a different type of speed from the others. He looks to try to clear the lead and I expect he does. This is his best distance and with the return to the familiar Becker barn I expect a big performance. 2-BLOW TORCH could be the sleeper in here as he has won three of the last four. If another happens to battle W W Hotshot early, he could be the one to settle in just off the pace and rally in the lane. 1-LYKAN was claimed off a victory in his last, running a solid figure in that spot. With the drop to the $20k rate he becomes eligible for this spot. His style figures to have him settle a bit back early, but look for him to close some ground in the lane.

It is his first start of the year, but 10-STACK SHACK is very fast and should be able to get a good trip from the outside draw. If expect he gets away in good order and should rate just behind a contested pace before moving forwardly in the lane. Let's see if he can pull off the upset as he has worked consistently toward this spot. 7-GET NONE loves the grass and the distance. He has just the one race on the year, which was a win, but was claimed and the claim was then voided. Time away since that race and now returns. With the layoff, and potential short price, I know he has a shot but could be upset too. 4-WAY TOO SMARTE has run some big races in the past on the grass and at the distance. If the pace is contested, let's see if he can sit back and close with a rush.

8-INEEDAGIRLLIKEYOU looks like the obvious choice. She’s run on turf four times and finished in the money in three of them, including her maiden win. She can display good speed but, as in last, is capable of closing with a rush. 5-CANDY KICK drops to her lowest level ever. She hasn’t shown much in her three previous turf attempts but those races were probably against stronger rivals, although those were all maiden races. Should improve off the drop. 4-BIA BOLT RUNNER isn’t exactly a sleeper but should be a square price. She finished a bit behind top choice in last but hadn’t raced in a few months. Should be fitter from that effort. 

5-BERNIE LOMAX drops. He’s coming off a terrible effort but he got off to a poor start and never recovered. He finished second here earlier in the meet. Good tactical speed could have him in perfect position to pounce late. 3-UNCLE NICK has been in good form lately. He finished second in his last two starts. Like top choice, he’ll be tracking the early pace, waiting for the speed to come back to him. 4-LIMA ZULU could be the best of the speed. He wired the field in last downstate. Might do the same in his Hawthorne return. 

7-COMMAND POINT looks tough but not necessarily a standout. She’s been in great form since shipping in. She finished in the money in all local starts, recording a win, two seconds and a third from four Hawthorne starts. It will be great to see the return of Jareth Loveberry in her irons. 4-BLOODY MARY MORNIN could give top pick a run for the money. Her last, a main-track sprint, was just a tune up. She’s been far better on turf. She’s had 18 races on the lawn and finished in the money in 15 of them, including six victories. 2-APRIL’S GEM just beat a similar group at this distance. She has a similar running style to top pair. Could turn into a great stretch duel. 

5-SHACKLEFORD STRONG has been a monster as of late. He won five of his last seven, running well on the lead or coming from far off the pace. However, with little other speed in here to challenge him, can see him making an easy lead and relatively coasting for much of the race. 7-TRY TRY AGAIN will try again. He beat top choice earlier in the meet but finished behind that rival the last two times they met. He’s fresh off a narrow loss versus tough $20k claimers and could be primed for a slight upsetting effort. 2-ICY BLAST won his last two. However, both were routes and he never even raced at this sprint distance. Would imagine that with the turn back in distance he’ll be coming late but might have to settle for a minor share. 

6-W W HOTSHOT could be a standout. $40k claim from last in allowance company meets much easier than he just beat. Should win this at a short price. 7-LIKE A SALTSHAKER is another with a high winning percentage. He’s been victorious in three of his four local races, including last two. Best can get him close. 8-ENJOY THE MUSIC is an enigma. He’s been a winning machine, five of six this year and six of 10 last year. However, he’s also a synthetic horse. He never won on turf or on dirt. All of his victories have been on synthetic tracks. How sure he’ll be able to chance that today.  

6-SHE'S WANDAFUL seems to hold the speed advantage. She wired a good allowance field last time out. She’s not the only speed in this race but she has a good chance to wire them again. 7-GET NONE is an interesting runner. She got claimed from her last two, both wins, but both claims were voided. Moves up in price for this one but she will be flying late and can get close in a heated pace race. 3-MIZZEN ASH just won at this level. She owns a pretty good late move. Could easily figure in the outcome.