Handicapper Tips & Picks

Morning line favorite #2 BLUE NEITH appears well-intended here for the connections. She had legit early speed, numbers and class that stacks up at this level, though could end up finding more pace pressure than expected and pace being the main knock and potential hurdle.

#4 DOWNTON TABBY also looks to have some intent as she wheels back for the second start off the layoff and returning to her preferred route distance. Class wise this will be a lateral move (same OFR) as the August 3^rd sprint race and a lower level than many of her races at Gulfstream Park. The one race with the similar 76-70 OFR as today’s 77-71 was the dominant (B+ OptixGRADE) win back on December 30^th and that race puts her right back in the mix today.

#5 SPIRITCATCHER wheels right back once again (the August 4^th race on a 9-day turnaround) for this race and looking to pair wins in her Hawthorne debut today. She has run numbers that makes her a fit on her best day though returns that top effort as well as trip. The Belterra win was with the extreme (SPACED) dynamic as the front runner cleared early and SPIRITCATCHER under a strong ride moved into contention around the turn and finished in a drive taking over from that longtime leader late. 

The lack of confirmed front runners moves #5 I DON’T KNOW MARGO into that role. She has been able to capitalize on that front end trip in the past, though did so against a softer statebred allowance group than the open here today. #4 RIBBONSINHERHAIR carried buried form that upgraded here on August 3^rd and looks competitive right back under similar conditions. The race dynamic should over her closer to the pace than her running lines suggest and could sit right off MARGO with first run.

#6 STYLE is that confirmed late closer, a RunStyle that has played against her this season and presents another hurdle today with that being her primary knock. She fits at this class level on this circuit and has current form; trip the final frontier. 

: #6 COMING UP ACES comes into this race with some buried form and could be “coming up” in the right field, time, and place – and price which is key. He will return to the statebred allowance level and will find some subtle class relief off his recent races with the higher OFR. The pace and slight addition of ground could also be on his side for today’s race as the pace projects to be honest. COMING UP ACES does not have to fall into the deeper closer role he was in last out, noting the race shape with minimal change in running order and should be upgraded off that race here.

#8 TAHOE RUN is proven at this allowance level and distance with the surface being the unknown. He has been able to transfer his form from track-to-track and held his figures off the off-tracks this year at Oaklawn Park. His overall form could see him shorter than the morning line suggests.

#7 EMPTY HOLSTER returns to Hawthorne and the turf for the first time since October of last year. He will return to similar statebred allowance conditions from that even here though finds a softer OFR and his 74 OptixFIG earned that day is one consistent with his current form and fits today’s OFR and in with today’s field.

Morning line favorite, #5 COOL AND COLLECTED is proven over the turf though will make his first start against winners. He must also improve off his two races to date and that is still some concern as he showed mild progress from his debut to the uncontested LONE lead win (lacking lead change) and through a pace that was pace coded Slow early and Very Slow late. #2 MAN ON ATTACK has run similar figures in his two turf races this season though coming back today he projects to be a much shorter number than those races this year and value is questionable on a runner with hurdles on the win end.

#4 KINGBURY ATTACK also carries form and consistency over the turf this season, though class wise is more of a lateral change from the recent claiming races and must show more to win and also pace for his off-the-pace run. 

The pace should be honest and the projected contention between #3 MARIA’S GIFT and #7 SHADOW BELLE could cancel each other out expected to battle early and joined by others in the field. Looking outside that pair for a contender, #1 NO NANETTE NO shifts back to the main track and class relief to move her up in this race. Her form this season, and even the main track form/OptixFIG this season stack up with today’s OFR. A rider change will be made today and could suggest intent with Felix taking over, a rider that has been riding well especially as of late. #4 EMITYAAZ also has run well this season and returning in this spot with class relief in the third start of the cycle, should have her competitive if there was ever a time and place to get back on track. She is further upgraded with today’s Surface/Distance race shape looking at OptixPLOT as a Large Square higher on the y-axis. 

There are two runners in there that stand out among the others: #6 SAKE ships into this circuit and the class change moves her up in a big way. She is upgraded on the Plot and from her running lines even coming back from the layoff. The Pimlico race was a competitive allowance on Preakness day with a full field, and from off the pace (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) SAKE showed run in spots though was unable to get into the race. #1 I’M BOX OFFICE has yet to run to the figures of SAKE, though has shown progress race-to-race and off the visuals she could still have that top effort in her and has not shown it yet. She was given a follow off her races last year and jumped up with the TWO_MOVES to break her maiden impressively (B+ OptixGRADE) here in June and showed run against winner on August 2^nd making a MOVE through TRAFFIC earning a B- OptixGRADE behind the top two that finished together at the wire. 

#1 MADELYN BELLE comes back today looking for a third straight win and even the debut visuals has her nearly perfect to start for Catalano. She showed a lot of class (and was well intended, backed by the public on the board and favored heavily in the will pays) getting up to win over the turf in July. She did have to work hard to get the win (B+ OptixGRADE) overcoming adversity and encouraging that she has been given some adequate recovery time, the 35-days for this race. She is tough to knock as an individual and should fit today’s race shape shown as a Quad I Square – tracking right off Circle, #3 LOVEYOULIKECRAZY; and could even see #4 COMMISSIONER GULCH forwardly placed as well.

#2 JULYNNE is lighter number wise though could still present a move forward and as a Square on the Plot suggests she can compete against today’s field. She showed a lot of class (B+ OptixGRADE) to break her maiden on debut, though a taxing effort (HARD) that required recovery time, recovery time she was not given and that impacted her in the races that followed. She showed progress coming back just over a week ago at Fan Duel and the connections must be encouraged enough off that effort to make the trip and quick turnaround here. 

#1 FIRST HILL has first preference on the morning line and most likely to hit the wire first. She has foundation at the route distance on the turf and consistently recording some of the higher figures in this field. She will return here off a competitive effort sprinting at Ellis Park given the far outside post and WIDE trip that followed.

#2 APPLE EVER AFTER returns in this spot to make her second start off the layoff and shows intent repeating a form cycle pattern from last year. She improved second off from a number standpoint and projects to do the same here. She should move forward off the August 5^th Colonial race, a race she needed and showed interest in from a visual standpoint.

Intent could also be in play for #6 BROADWAY CHARM as she shows up here first off the layoff and for trainer Brian Cook – a barn change that was made after the debut and had been training with Ken Sweezey off that claim down in Florida. As far as the debut effort, the show finish was BTL though in terms of class will be tested here with Special Weight company. The class change (rise) is also noted for #10 LEAPIN LEVA shipping in off the Mountaineer debut last month. As far as the effort she took a tough beat on the wrongside of the photo, a photo that going the other way she would not be in this race.

#7 SILVER EYES also remains with Special Weight company a level she has been overmatched (DROP) at this season, though has been looking to get on the grass (was even scheduled to debut over the turf here last June) all season and from a visual standpoint she should handle TURF. #3 GOLD OAK and #4 BONITA D’ORO have had their chances on the turf and proven on the surface though have not quite shown that “winning” race yet and class, like others here remains their big hurdle on the win end. 

The Thursday opener comes down to trip as there appears to be a good amount of pace in this race. 5-SPIRITCATCHER ships in for this race as she comes out of four straight turf tries at Belterra. She doesn't show much for early speed but has a good late kick. Expect Centeno to have her positioned well early and running on late. 7-LORRAINE'S LEGACY faced much tougher on the turf two back and held her own late into the lane. She dropped to win her last and was claimed out of that spot. She takes the logical step back up in class as she should be able to tuck in just behind the early leaders. Let's see what she shows us in here. 2-BLUE NEITH has speed and has been solid on the grass. She comes in off a bit of a layoff into here but has run well when fresh in the past. The question is how much company will she have in here upfront?

Off her last race and with the class edge, 4-RIBBONSINHERHAIR looks to be very tough in this spot. She rated mid-pack in her last and was running on in the lane to finish a good second. With some pace on either side of her, look for her to get a similar trip once again. 6-STYLE has to hope the pace is quick and contested as she tends to rate and rally late. She closed to finish third in her last couple was was gaining too late in each. I worry that she gets that same trip once again. 2-SECRET OPERATION ran well in her last, considering her big price. She's another that will need pace to chase but she could be picking up the pieces late.

The question here isn't the ability but more the surface as 8-TAHOE RUN will try the grass for the first time. After some near misses, he has rattled off back to back victories, defeating open company in his last two. He returns to face state-breds here and should be able to sit mid-pack early and run on in the lane. 2-MAN ON ATTACK has shown turf ability recently finding the board in both recent grass starts. He has some tactical speed and should be able to  tuck in just behind the early leaders. A rider switch to Centeno today and let's see if that makes a difference. 5-COOL AND COLLECTED looked like a different racehorse in his second career start compared to his debut. After showing little interest first time out, he was sent straight to the lead and extended in the lane. The 10-1 price was incredible in that spot but you won't get the same price today.

With the outside two likely to show speed, I'm looking to 2-TALKTOMEJUSTICE to find a good stalking trip and take over in the lane. She ran a nice race with Colon aboard two back and gets back to two turns, where she seems at her best of late. Class relief helps as everything could line up for a nice score. 3-MARIA'S GIFT has a pair of runner-up efforts at this level in her last couple. Centeno rides once again as she may be alongside Talktomejustice early and trying to outkick that one late. 4-EMITYAAZ has faced tougher throughout her career as the class drop could put her in a good spot here. She does have some tactical speed but figures to settle mid-pack early and run on in the lane.

Really competitive race as there's a few in here that could show some speed. 8-PENUMBRAS MAKER has run well in her last couple, both races that came off the grass. She was able to run down a game Spicy Italian in her last and that one came back and won over this track last week. With some speed ahead of her, expect her to rate and close in the lane. 3-R KATIEBUG comes off a solid performance against state-breds in her last. She stalked the leaders in that spot and just missed at the wire. She draws well here and could get a perfect tracking trip once again. 9-WANDA STRONG has been good this season as she has founds the board in all four starts. She just missed after a troubled trip in her last and will be another to benefit if the pace is quick and contested upfront.

She's lightly raced but has been good in her three starts as 1 -MADELYN BELLE looks to be a heavy favorite in here. She stalked the pace in her last before getting up in the shadow of the wire while facing open company last out. The race conditions allow her in here today as Loveberry picks up the call. 6-COWGIRL FRANKIE will be hoping for a contested pace upfront as she figures to settle early and rally late. She ran a really nice race on the grass in her last but has had her best success at three quarters. 3-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY has speed and could challenge early. She was an easy winner in a short field last out but will finds things a bit tougher here. Let's see if she tries to clear early and look to wire these.

A couple of shippers along the inside that are both in with a shot. 1-FIRST HILL has speed as she stretches back out today. She battled the lead two back before giving way late but in here may be fast enough to clear. 4-BONITA D'ORO stretches back out after a pair of decent turf sprints in her last couple. She has finished nicely late in each and may get overlooked at the windows. 2-APPLE EVER AFTER also ships in as she looks to get back to her turf form from last fall. She has only one start on the year which came on dirt but ships in as she picks up bug Rodriguez in the saddle.

This might not be a “gimme” race for 2-BLUE NEITH but it seems to come close. She’s had 15 turf races, winning two and coming close in most of the others. This speedy filly might face some early pressure but this shorter sprint/route could be perfect for her. Makes her local and barn debut. It could be a winning one. 5-SPIRIT CATCHER just scored her first turf victory. Her speed figures suggest that she could be as fast as top choice but she comes from far back and there might not be enough speed to set up for that kind of late run. 7-LORRAINE'S LEGACY is interesting. She showed little in her lone turf race, running for a barn that specializes in turf runners, but she did generate a competitive speed figure in that spot. Got claimed from a winning dirt effort in last. Her new barn does well with their claims. Might be able to surprise with this one.

Not in love with 4-RIBBONSINHERHAIR but she did finish second in her local debut and she beat most of her current rivals in that effort. Could be even stronger after getting a race over the track. 6-STYLE finished third in last two. She was only a half length behind top choice at the finish and might have been moving even better. Maybe she’ll get by all of them late. 5-I DON’T KNOW MARGO might be the quickest member of this field. She seldom makes the lead but there isn’t much other speed in here. Might grab quick control.

2-MAN ON ATTACK could win at a square price. He has shown some turf talent in his two races on this surface. He does own decent speed but think he’s more likely to attack late with all the other speed in this field. 5-COOL AND COLLECTED is hard to figure. He showed absolutely nothing in his debut, on turf, but came back six weeks later to wire the field, again on turf. It’s been about another month since that race and he’s had one useful drill since. He’s not the only speed in this field. We’ll see what happens if he gets pressured early. 6-COMING UP ACES hasn’t won in a couple years but he is the only one in here with two turf scores, he closes well at times. And he’s moving back into Illinois breds.

4-EMITYAZZ had had three races at this meet and had legitimate excuses in all three. She made her turf debut in her local debut, was in too tough in her second, and was in too tough in a race that was too short in her last. She’s finally in the right spot. Should awaken. 7-SHADOW BELLE is likely to be sent right to the lead. She typically sprints but the last time they stretched her out she won in near wire-to-wire fashion. She seems to be rounding back into form. Might lead all the way. 3-MARIA’S GIFT figures prominently. She might not be quite as quick as Shadow Belle but she does own good route speed and she’s coming off two straight seconds at this level and distance.

9-WANDA STRONG has been in great form this year. She won only once but all four of her races have been sharp. She missed by a nose in last after a troubled trip and if that race had been at today’s distance, she probably would have won. 6-SAKE ships in to try our turf. She’s had some great races and some there were not. Her lone win came at a minor French track in 2021. She’s likely meeting easier here than she has been facing but that’s not a guarantee that she’ll do much better. Not sure 3-R KATIEBUG will turn out to be as good as her older sisters but she does appear to be on her way to a good career. She missed by a vanishing head in last, her first turf race, and she’s another that might do even better with the extra sixteenth of real estate. Don’t ignore 1-I’M BOX OFFICE. She has shown considerable improvement this year over last. She finished third, a couple lengths behind top pick in last but she did have stretch trouble and had to overcome that to regain her momentum. She’s a very real threat.

1-MADELYN BELLE looks tough. She broke her maiden on dirt versus Illinois breds two starts back and then took on and beat open company on the lawn. She’s back on dirt and back in state breds for this. Could extend her win streak to three. 3-LOVEYOULIKECRAZY wired the field to break her maiden in last. Don’t think she’s quite as quick as top choice but she’s likely to be chasing that filly all the way around in close proximity. 6-COWGIRL FRANKIE could get the ideal pace ahead of her if the top pair and one or two others in here lock up in a speed duel.

Interesting race. Certainly no standouts in here. But like the way 8-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN finished in last. The race was obviously too short for her but she was making up ground late. Worried that she might display more speed with the stretch out but if her rider can get her to relax in the early going, she might be able to run by them all late. 1-FIRST HILL has had some competitive efforts and her speed figures suggest that she’s the one that should win this. 2-APPLE EVER AFTER hasn’t shown much but she’s another taking on a somewhat easier group. Could be racing right off the pace. 3-GOLD OAK should have little trouble grabbing the early lead. She seems far quicker than the rest. However, she’s been running out of gas in short sprints. Not sure she’ll last the distance on the lead.

T 2 Fitness Class 3 P L Rainbow Dash 7 Emoji Hanover

P 6 Cheese So Pretty 2 Rocket Girl 3 Lyons Ladyluck

T 4 Tea Lake 8 Love Those Legs 7 Zippy Zipporah

T 1 R Peaky Blinders 6 Shermont 9 Charmbo Titan

P 3 Dollydaydream 5 Snake Eyes Hanover 6 Hurrikane Msrodine

T 5 Ricardo 2 Crystal Baller 3 Lite The Candles

P 10 Sharky 9 Three Somewhere 2 Hello Rocky

T 4 Connor 8 Titan Flax 3 Hp Joni Moni

P 1 Watching You 2 We Believin 3 Scrappy

P7 Cereal Killer 2 Lil Red Sportstar 1 Speak Of Way

P 7 Highnett 3 Chesapeake Sunrise 9 Sunshine Love