Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 4 Fox Valley Gump 1 Josie Rocksmyworld 2 Likely Blue Bayou

P 6 Dandy’s MNM 4 Bombay Parkway 3 Dune Dame

P 1 Free Art 4 Vinny Lou 3 Key Ingrediant

P 6 Coach Mamacita 7 Rockin Faye 4 Delightful Donna

P 2 Fox Valley Carlos 5 Redhot Sky 4 U S S Ark

T 4 Lou’s Miracle 1 El Champee’onn 2 Tear In My Beer

P 1 Fox Valley Reem 2 My Eyes Adored You 5 Revenge Rosie

T 4 Hocuspocusnfocus 2 Lous Amazon 6 Broadway Lassie

P 2 Fox Valley Gina 5 Dandy’s Ms Swifty 6 Platinum Shark

T 4 Party Of Two 7 Zions Realy Chilly 6 Jammin High

P 3 Foxman 6 Super Taco 2 Mystic Revenge

T 1 El Brae Brae 2 Lous Lexi Lou 3 Ingo Bingo Bango

P 9 Dandy’s Showtime 2 Can’t Stay Too Long 8 Bapa’s Last Call

#8 BLOOD MOON needed a more aggressive ride here on August 16^th and that change in tactics should be in play today with Lezcano taking over and finding some class relief and slight distance change – further positives. In terms of the early pace, both #1 RIVER BOY and #6 POKER PLAY can show speed with the former coming off a top 13-days ago and the latter overall tougher to trust with other front runners in a race. That scenario of contention can assist #7 FLYING SAMURAI with a stalking trip, another finding class relief and a rider change to suggest intent in the final week of the meet. The rider change back to Giles aboard #3 NOT VERY GENTLE also suggests intent; while the two did not pick up a win earlier this meet their two starts together finished on the board and competitive under similar conditions to today’s event. 

#8 LAKE MILLS made a positive physical appearance (PRERACE+) on July 26^th and showed run with adversity at the break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) making a MOVE to finish third over a main track profile that was playing fast and tough to make up ground on. He fits today’s conditions and in current form shown in Past 3 Runlines lacking “red” with OptixFIG in today’s OFR.

The race shape looks to have Contention (Fire) though a lower 13 SpeedRate to assist horses with tactical speed. The race shape and class change can also benefit #1 ROGER MCQUEEN and #2 LUCKY SHOT both also in form (lack of “red” OptixFIG in OFR) and looking to find this spot as the right spot to compete. 

Looking at OptixPLOT the “Red” PlotFit suggests an unpredictable pace scenario. #2 SLAVA UKRAINI is the lone “E” though coded “Red” in the OptixRPM (RunStyleMatch) due to the Quad III position. #7 G T FIVE HUNDRED shifts to Quad 1 with the stretch out in distance though finishing ability (Circle) is the concern with today’s added ground especially with the layoff lines, recent front wrap addition and class rise.

Class is the concern for former Mason runner #4 ICE BLAST though intention should be there as he makes his second start off the claim and returning to a route of ground on the one week turnaround. He should fall into the right trip, a trip that will be key with the two Large Squares of #1 MILLARD’S SMILE and #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE tracking right off of him and have the class edge on their side.

#5 COMING UP ACES had an “upset” look when he was entered last Thursday in a statebred allowance on the turf and lands here following that trainer scratch. He has some class on his side, numbers that stack up on his best day though still requires to run that top effort with price compensation required. #6 T LAW is interesting runner in this race as he shows up in this spot racing above condition. The placement might just be what is available and in form (with OptixFIG in line with others) the connections are willing to take their shot. 

Throughout the meet we’ve seen many Block runners favored without much edge in the field and that could be the case in this event with #1 MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY. He fits in this race and coming back from a DQ from show three weeks ago earning a B- OptixGRADE. The rider change to a journeyman should assist on this horse that can be a handful at times. The value is still required as others in this field have run faster races and he still must show he can run faster if those others run their race.

#2 IZEONDEC is an interesting horse in this spot. The connections have tried to run as MTO and certainly would be okay if there were a surface switch this afternoon, though they also have shown run on the turf. One of those turf races was here back in May when compromised by the TACTIC- by Emigh and saw a quick rider change to Felix off that effort. His prior start, the local debut on April 13^th was a sneaky good race and the type of TROUBLE trip that warranted an EX – EXCUSE.

#3 SHARP AZ NAILS physically presents as a runner that can handle turf, and despite being entered a couple times looking for the surface switch they look to find that grass debut today. Class wise he should fit at this claiming level noting he was handled by allowance company this season and benefitted from the PERFECT trip to break his maiden at the Special Weight level. That race was sprinting and following this runner, he does carry some distance limitations. The mile looks to be his max and requires the right level, trip, and pace to get the added ground. Hernandez taking over today projects to be assertive and likely to see this one on the lead right from the start.

Some distance limitations have also been observed on #6 LAWMAKER and part of the reason he has settled for minor finishing. He comes into this race in form for today’s N2 claiming level. #5 IMPULSIVENESS will give up some recency returning from the 53-day freshening. He is one that has been knocking around at the N2 level for quite some time and while he has been consistently running his race he requires a lot in his favor to win – not out of it though price compensation is necessary. 

This allowance race comes up light for the level and those races are tough to assess and can often come down to which horse gets the trip and in form over the “best” in the race. #7 TWIRLING ROSES could fall into that profile coming into this race on an “every other” pattern and some subtle trips this year, still looking for that first win. In terms of pace (Plot) he does not have any edge over others and shows up with a similar position to #4 CORTESE, the likely favorite and #8 RICHIESONAROLL, one that could appear “lone speed” on paper. As noted the “tricky” complexion of this race, this is not a race that really upgrades/downgrades any horse in particular.

Runners from off the pace: #2 STAR NATION Is upgraded on OptixFIG and class over #5 DASH TO THE CASH, a pair of runners that should land in a similar trip – Quad IV Squares. #3 POWER ALLEY could get attention off the connections and presence of Loveberry, though as an individual still has something to prove and IMPROVE to compete for a top spot in this race. 

Projected favorite, #1 SIMPLE LOGIC has benefit from favorable trips this year and while he could fall into another one today looking at OptixPLOT, coming up short with the PERFECT trip last out creates reservations at a short price and reasons to get creative with others looking for value.

#7 MCMONEY could appear a logical alternative with the recent win and coming off a show finish in his most recent start and where Hernandez lands noting he had been aboard some others in this race in their most recent start. He did have a favorable POCKET ground saving trip and lacked excuse under similar conditions earlier this season as one that might lack value. #5 DANCE SOME MO should find himself in the right spot to compete and some intent as he makes his second start of this form cycle and looking to pick up the first win for these connections since taking over.

As far as the previous “Hernandez” runners: #6 ARMAVIR comes into this race lighter than others, though has shown progress with each start this year and especially in his current form cycle. He projected to move up with racing and added ground and has done just that, he will be out to show he can take that further step forward needed to compete against today’s group today. #8 BAKENEKO has struggled at the N1X allowance level this season, though going back through his form, he has run races that would make him competitive, even his race here on the turf on May 21^st earned an 81 OptixFIG, a number in today’s OFR and one that is in line with the other “logical” in the race. Class and trip is key for #4 SON OF GRACE, though with the “bunched” Plot visual he could benefit with his RunStyle and at the least come running late to pick up pieces. 

#1 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY looked to benefit from the class drop on August 13^th though the SLOG and race dynamic (despite fast pace early and late there was minimal change in running order) were factors he was unable to overcome. Some intent should be in play as they come right back today and come back with a rider change to Centeno, the rider aboard for the place finish on June 7^th and has not been up since.

#5 BORN AGAIN GEORGE also returns from the August 13^th race and upgraded from that event as he lands here in the second start of the form cycle (looked short off the 39-day break) and intent with Felix back aboard. The Plot position suggests he will race closer to the pace and should land in the right trip as a Quad I Square. #2 RISKY BOY comes back from that same common race, though one that is a more “common” type this season consistent with the C+/B- OptixGRADE races – tougher to support on the win end.

#4 Z U SOON was well-intended backed in the will pays and opened with early money here on July 26^th and was less “meant” wheeling back in 11-days on August 6^th, his most recent start. He is one that tends to run that “every other” race and benefit from more time between starts, the pattern here. Reyes, the win rider from earlier this season will also jump back aboard and could suggest intent today as well. The class DROP should benefit #8 PERFECT WAGER again wheeling right back in a week. Pace/trip is key as he makes that run from off the pace, Quad IV Square, though should be back in the right spot here and with an improved run from just 7-days ago. 

Seems to be a good amount of pace in this race. Hopefully things set up for 3-NOT VERY GENTLE to rate and run on late. He does step up a bit in here but has been solid most of the season. He was hung wide in his last but should get a better trip today. 6-POKER PLAY comes in from Iowa for this start as he has speed. He has the potential to be the quickest to the lead and could get brave if he makes the top. Good speed jock in Santiago in the saddle benefits as well. 8-BLOOD MOON is one that comes out of a much tougher race last out. He chased before tiring in the lane but they went very quick in there. Expect him to settle here early and move forwardly in the stretch.

1-ROGER MCQUEEN was in quite tough in his last two. He held his own against a very solid racehorse in Shackleford Strong last out, running step for step with that one until mid stretch. Things are a bit easier here as he figures to stalk the leaders and move forwardly in the lane. 4-ROCKET HOTSHOT will be hoping for some pace to chase. He was claimed off a victory in his last and gets the bug rider in the saddle. I slight improvement off that effort puts him in the mix once again. 8-LAKE MILLS closed in a race that had a ton of pace last out. Although winless on the year, he has been facing much tougher. Expect him to come running in the lane.

Not a ton of pace in this race as 2-SLAVA UKRAINI has the potential to show speed and never look back. He was a good winner on the dirt two races back and could clear and never look back. 7-G T FIVE HUNDRED stretches back out as he comes off the layoff into this spot. It was a good sprint effort in his last and he could get a good tracking trip in here. 4-ICE BLAST was claimed off a front running score two back. That was was a bit deceiving though as there was not much along the lines of pace in that race. Expect him to settle back early and come running in the lane.

I really liked the effort last out from 5-IMPULSIVENESS as he faced a solid field in Kentucky on the grass and held his own. He has run well in his last two and has the turf intentions the majority of his career. The breeding is solid and I expect a strong closing move in the lane. 6-LAWMAKER has tactical speed as he figures to rate just off the pace and move forwardly in the lane. He raced into some early traffic in his last but recovered to run evenly as he chased through the lane. Without much pace early in here, he shouldn't be too far back at any point. 1-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY will likely be closing from a bit further back in this spot. His last two have been solid as well but he turns back to the mile and may need to get started early.

A little bit of rain could be beneficial to the turf course and also to 7-MCMONEY as the course has held speed well of late. He ran a solid race at 7 1/2 furlongs last out but looks to benefit from the added eighth of a mile today. There should be enough pace to chase as he figures to settle early and close well late. 1-SIMPLE LOGIC has been the heavy favorite in five straight, but has been the runner-up in the last four. He's always right there but has lacked some of the necessary finishing kick. He's going to take a ton of action again but will need to finish as Emigh is back in the saddle. 5-DANCE SOME MO is one of those with speed as he may be the fastest of the group early. If he is able to clear and run uncontested through the opening half, there's potential for him to get brave and continue on in the lane.

I like that Felix gets back aboard 5-BORN AGAIN GEORGE is I felt he rode him well two back. He was much more assertive early in that spot and with the other Pat Clay runner in here, he should get a perfect tracking trip. He likes this track and may sneak off at a bit of a price. 8-PERFECT WAGER comes out of a tough race in his last but he ran well as he ran on in the lane. If another goes with Wildwood Secret early, it will help for his closing move. 1-SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY has been disappointing this meet as he now makes his second start at this level. He appears to be one that was going to be competitive at the allowance level but just never hit his stride. He was claimed out of his last and remains at this level which may not be a great sign.

8-BLOOD MOON was thrown to the wolves when he had to take on the likes of Moment in his local debut. Although he owns decent speed, he didn’t stick around for long in that race. However, it did give him a trip over the track. Meets a far easier group with the drop in class. Could wake up in a big way. 2-VERRAZANOINTHESKY riders a two race win streak and he won three of his four races at the meet. He’ll be tracking the pace once again. Meets somewhat tougher here but should still finish with authority. 6-POKER PLAY could be sent right to the lead. If nobody pressures him early he could take it all the way. 

Interesting race with that $12,500 exemption. But it does seem likely, with all the speed in here, that things could set up for a closer in spite of a seemingly speed-biased track. 8-LAKE MILLS fits that description admirably. He doesn’t own a big late move but he’s more of a “grind them down” runner. The drop in price can’t hurt. 1-ROGER MCQUEEN can press the pace but he can also track. He ran well the last three times he was entered in claiming events. Looks like a major player in this contest. 6-PINBALLER makes his 12th start of the meet. Fleet five-year-old won two of his last three. Could be right there from flag fall to finish. 

Have to give the nod to 3-GLOBAL EMPIRE. I’ll give him a pass on his last. Facing Moment is no easy task. But, other than that, he has been in competitive form all year with two wins and three other in-the-money finishes in 10 starts. 7-G T FIVE HUNDRED is an interesting runner. He’s coming off a second-place finish in his local dirt debut, though he was placed first through DQ. He’s stretching out for this. Although his previous route races weren’t so sharp, he should be given the benefit of the doubt at this level on the main track. 2-SLAVA UKRAINI has had two races against claimers and won them both. He owns better speed than most in here. Could be on or near the lead all the way around. 

4-CHAD'S FLASH can surprise. He's never run on turf and he’s never been around two turns but he looks like the only real speed in this race and he might be able to just coast on the lead on what is going to be very firm turf. 6-LAWMAKER  has been in decent form. He finished second at this level in his last two. Should be stalking the early pace once again. Could ease by late. 1-MONSTERONTHEMIDWAY was just DQ’d from a third place finish at this level, making his first start against winners. As usual. He'll be stalking the pace. Just not entirely sure the pace will be quick enough to set up for his late run.  

This race is wide open. There isn’t a toss out among the bunch. 4-CORTESE might be the best of the speed but he doesn’t seem likely to get an easy lead. However, Felix can generally coax good speed out of those he pilots. Might put the rest away. 8-RICHIESONAROLL was unable to catch the lone speed in last but he didn’t lose by much and he was clear of the rest of the field, including Cortese. He does own good speed and has a chance if he breaks on top. 5-DASH TO THE CASH might be overlooked after a poor effort last time out but he broke slowly in that race and really had no chance to catch them. He does possess a strong late move and he could benefit if the top pair lock up in a speed duel. 

1-SIMPLE LOGIC adds blinkers. He ran with them in his debut but not in the 21 races since. He's had a case of seconditis, all four races this year and in nine of his 22 starts, but maybe blinks on will make the difference. 7-MCMONEY finished a bit behind top choice in last but he might have been moving better at the end. The extra sixteenth mile of this race could be a great help. There is a lot of speed in this race but not sure if any are as fast as 9-AQUACAT. He won his last two by daylight, one on turf and the other on the main track. He jumps in class for this but he just might be quick enough to stretch his win streak to three. 

Will this be the last time we see 3-NYOMAN? This 11yo is still racing competitively but he is 11. In any case, he’s going to be racing right off what should be a fairly heated pace. Might take them late. 2-RISKY BOY had little chance versus the lone speed when he dropped to this level for last but the pace is likely to be contested in this race which should help to set up for his late run. 7-WILDWOOD SECRET could be the best of the speed. He’s been tiring late but he was claimed from last by a barn that has been having a lot of success with their claims. Might finally get the distance.