Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace looks to be contentious (Fire) though with the lower SpeedRate could still benefit a horse with early speed. #1 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN could be that horse as he returns to the lower N2 claiming level going back to a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort making a RUSH into a fast (X_FLOW) pace and holding for place. His early speed could try to get some separation and that would be key as the “Square” stalkers #3 UNCAPTURED DREAM and #6 FABRICATOR will be sitting in that “cat bird seat” looking to pounce. Those two have the tactical edge over #2 STOLICH and #4 MASQUERADE BALL, two runners sitting from further off the pace in Quad IV when making that late run. 

#7 ANNINA DREAMS worked efficiently back in March at the OBS sale though also looked like one that was still growing and could be part of the reason they backed off the published works until June and comes into this event with the consistent drills. #2 MISS MIKOS also picked up out of the sale in April and has a longer worktab into this race and that could be a sign to watch here.

Brian Cook will start a pair of homebred O’Meara runners in this race with #3 BLUESUP GREENSDOWN and #6 EDGE OF TOWN both showing similar worktab coming into this race. Lezcano has picked up more calls than Reyes and that could be a sign as well as the drill back on June 18^th as a potential EDGE.

Boyce will return with the pair of #5 DEVIL and #8 BEEHIVE and those two holding the experience edge over the others, however, still must improve off those races to win. The debut figure for DEVIL was stronger than the race itself and as far as BEEHIVE, she had issues at the start before showing early speed and should be fit coming back from the WIDE DUEL three weeks ago.

Block #4 THERE SHE GOES has a steady series of works with a live rider as Colon is aboard and that is preferred over #1 QUERENDONA, one that looks to have some “faster” half mile gate works though also shows a gap from July to August. 

Splitting the Rivelli pair, #2 WILMA MANKILLER is the more accomplished and her form this season holds an edge over the others that have been racing here this season for the level. #5 VIOLA potentially holds the most upside as she makes her second start. She was highly regarded before the debut going back to last year and had to work her way back around slowly and carefully and for that initial start. She was handled expertly by Mojica and benefit from the complexion of the field. If she is able to benefit from that experience and step forward in this race, she could easily mix it up with this field to compete. 

#2 KATIE M’LADY has been consistent all season and proven under similar stakes conditions that makes her the main player in this race and the horse to beat. Her early speed also makes her the horse to catch as she holds that pace advantage over many in this group. If they can’t run with her early perhaps they can try and run with her late and could be the key for #1 SUMMER DAY one that has been competitive in similar statebred stakes events and those races buried in her form could be overlooked especially as she has yet to run back to a “faster” race this season. 

#1 SWEET LITTLE LISA has been consistent this season and her form should hold as she steps up to take on winners. She has been consistent, shown tactical speed and the ability to finish. She also retains Centeno a rider that found the “learning experience” on debut and returning last month for the win – his presence here is noted as he was aboard #6 FROSTED ÉCLAIR as she was dominant (B+ OptixGRADE and HARD effort) pulling off the 18-1 upset against $15k N2L claiming company earlier this month.  

Centeno was also aboard #4 CRYSTAL SNOW in her most recent start, a solid place B- OptixGRADE effort as the BOS. She has some buried turf form and form at this level keying off the BTL effort and on June 8^th her only race sprinting on the turf. #5 BALI BABY will again be tested in allowance company though could hold an edge with improving form this season and over the claiming group others exiting the open $20k event last week earning a B- OptixGRADE. 

As an individual, #3 STOPSHOPPINGAMY makes a lot of sense in the role as the morning line and projected favorite. She has her biggest challenge in the race shape itself and working a trip – if she shows speed she could find early contention with #1 RUNNERS HEAT, #4 TIMELESS GLORY, #5 FEEL LOVE all front running types projected to mix it up early, and if she continues to have the gate issues that have been present this season she could limit any overall edge in a field with other capable types.

#6 GO STORMIN GIRL is a contender for one of the unluckiest horses this meet. She took a tough beat after a heated stretch duel on June 11^th only to come back 11-days later to suffer a DQ in a controversial call. She returns today with a freshening and some subtle class relief to suggest with everything this meet she is in the right spot to get the picture taken.

#7 PALACE MAGIC has a favorable stalking RunStyle as well as form and figures in line with this claiming level. The timing is the prime concern as she lands here off a 46-day unplanned freshening as she has been entered twice this month and both times a vet scratch unable to compete.

Trip is key for #8 MAYSTART but her win earlier this month was no surprise despite the longer 19-1 odds. She has shown run all season going back to the BTL races in March and coming back with the freshening to the sprint distance. That consistency should carry here and again trip with her RunStyle the main hurdle for Weatherly again. 

#8 MONEY AGENT has shown more run at times than perhaps his running lines and finishing positions suggest. His 79 OptixFIG back on June 9^th stacks up well for this level and since then had a pair of excuses with the Hawthorne Derby placement and TROUBLE in the July 23^rd race that followed. The ride from Hernandez two weeks ago was far from ideal and suggests intent to return with a rider change. Stablemate #6 PIRATE MARMALADE had shown intent to race on the turf and finally getting to the grass lost his race out of the gate 11-days ago making a mess of the break and racing on hold from off the pace not asked for run.

The August 16^th is also the common race for the two Block runners returning here and looking to find the right group and trip to clear the maiden condition. #10 EVEN THE WIND has shown run going back to his debut at Tampa, however, has yet to take that needed step forward. He can be counted on to run his race, and if that race/trip is good enough he could win. #9 BORDER PATROL did not shown much run up in NY against the class where he made sense for the statebred level and the connections landing here looking for class relief. From a physical standpoint he is on the smaller side and could see with the blinkers added today to get him to use his natural (POP) early speed to try and carry the distance of ground.

BORDER PATROL showing more early speed could make things tougher on some others in this field (#1 DARK SOLUTION, #3 PAINTSVILLE) and might assist #7 REGIMENTAL and #4 ELECTRIC CHARGE with their needed trip and racing luck as horses that have run some of the higher figures in this race, however have come up short on class.

First time starter #2 NEWS AT NINE appears live on debut for Davis, a barn capable with debuting runners. They have been looking for a turf route race noting a scratch from August 9^th at HS Indy when those races came off the turf and appears to be race ready as they have shown intention to run on the turf and on this circuit.

With a couple committed to the front in here, it could set things up nicely for 6-FABRICATOR to sit back and rally in the lane. He was claimed out of his last and has held his own in his last two. He's back at the same level and could be a decent price. 3-UNCAPTURED DREAM will need to avoid becoming a part of the pace battle as he figures to sit just behind the leaders and get first run on the late closers. He just missed last out but has continually run well with Giles aboard. 2-STOLICH could be another to benefit from a possible contested pace as he shortens up today. His best races have come at Hawthorne and he may be overlooked a bit off a poor running line on the grass in his last. Let's see if he can upset for a barn that has had a solid meet.

Liking the workout pattern from 7-ANNINA DREAMS as she comes into her debut. A nice string of quick half mile drills followed most recently by a solid 5/8 work should have her fit and ready. The barn has had a fine meet as this is their first juvenile to debut here. 5-DEVIL has run a pair of solid races as she showed improved speed from the inside in her last. She should be forwardly placed once again and could improve in her second start at the distance. 8-BEEHIVE recovered from a bit of a poor break in her last to run on nicely. She was beaten less than a length in that start and looked to be getting to the winner late. From the outside she may be able to settle a bit early but should be closing well in the lane.

May have overthought this but we will see. A good amount of speed in here as we will see how 5-VIOLA takes to the dirt. She ran a big race on the grass in her debut but has worked well on the dirt. Expect her to settle early and rally in the lane. 1-MYSWEETANNALYZE has run a pair of good races to open her career, both while at a price. She figures to tuck in just off the early leaders and should be closing quickly late. 2-WILMA MANKILLER has had a very good meet. She ran a huge race at this level last out and may have the chance to shake loose and never look back.

Only two with speed in here but they are both from the Boyce barn. Have to think they don't both go early, likely leaving 2-KATIE M'LADY to make the top and control the pace. She has been tremendous her entire career and a great fit with Felix in the saddle. 4-JOURNEYIST is the other Boyce runner in here with speed as she may be in a stalking spot today. She did run a huge race last out but isn't quite the same talent level as her stablemate. 6-WHITE LIES is hopeful of that contested pace upfront as she figures to rate back early and run on in the lane. It was a big sprint effort in her last but we will see how she handles the stretch back out in here.

A couple with speed in here as the move back to the grass could help the chances of 1-SWEET LITTLE LISA. While she was victorious on the dirt in her last, I expect she improves off that with the move to the grass. Let's see if she can save ground and run on late. 2-MOVE IT BABY is one of those with speed as she steps up off the claim from her last. She almost held on in that spot and shortens up a 16th in here which should be beneficial. 5-BALI BABY is one that will need pace to chase but she is proven at the distance and has posted solid figures. Lezcano has fit her nicely in the saddle and is back aboard once again.

Tough race as there's not a ton of pace. Hoping 6-GO STORMIN GIRL can rate a bit closer early and come running in the lane. She comes off a bit of a rest which may have been needed but she likes this track and distance as she could sneak away at a bit of a price. 5-FREE LOVE is one who could show speed as she figures to try to shake loose early in here. She's posted some solid efforts while facing tougher and should be on the gas from the start. 3-STOPSHOPPINGAMY disappointed in her last as she was the heavy favorite. She figures to tuck in just off the pace and should be moving forwardly in the lane.

3-UNCAPTURED DREAM should be tough. He’s been in great form since early June with a maiden win and a narrow loss in his first start against winners. His speed figures stand out. Should exit this meet on a winning note. 1-I’M YOUR CAPTAIN didn’t handle the turf or the company in last but he did finish second in his previous start, the only time he has raced at this level. He’s a bit quicker than top choice but not sure he’ll be able to hold that runner off late. 6-FABRICATOR was just claimed. Comes right back at the same level. He looks like one of the few in here likely to make a late run. Could get close.

8-BEEHIVE just missed in her career debut. Not sure if a poor start cost her the win but that race should have set up a solid foundation for her. She was well regarded going into that first race. Could make amends for her backers in this one. 1-QUERENDONA’s drills are better than they look. She’s been popping solid morning efforts while working at one of the top racetracks, and facing some of the top horses, in the country. 4-THERE SHE GOES is another whose works are worth noting. Her barn doesn’t always work them fast and she has been quicker than many. 5-DEVIL, stablemate of top choice, ran well in both starts. She finished behind Beehive in last but she might own better speed and speed wins most of the races around here.

2-WILMA MANKILLER might not be a lock but she does appear to be among the quicker members of this field. She ran away from a good group in last and did it with ease. Think she could have a tougher time today but the outcome could be the same. 5-VIOLA has only the one race, one win to her credit but she looked impressive in that victory. Also, that race was contested on turf. There’s no guarantee that she’ll display the same kind of late run with the switch to dirt but, if she does like the surface, she should find the longer distance of this race to her liking. 1-MYSWEETANAYYZE has been ignored in both of her races but she proceeded to win both of them. Her speed figures seem to lag behind those of some in here but it’s hard to argue with success.

2-KATIE M’LADY is the highweight in this contest but, in reality, she might be able to carry me and still win. She raced primarily on turf but she is three-for-three this year, including a dirt stakes score, and she has been victorious in seven of her 12 career races, along with four second-place finishes. Shouldn’t get caught. 4-JOURNEYIST, stablemate of top choice, seems to be the only one with a glimmer of hope to beat top choice. She hasn’t been quite as hot, she only one her last two, but she was narrowly beaten in her previous three starts. 6-WHITE LIES seeks to end her career on a winning note. She regained some of her old form in last and came on late to score in an open allowance. The move back to state breds and what could be an even better pace might set things up for her again.

1-SWEET LITTLE LISA, fresh off a maiden score. Could be tough. She finished second in her debut, on turf, and was entered for turf in her subsequent starts but both races were moved to the main track. She is bred for the lawn, however. She’s been off five weeks with only the one drill but know she’ll be ready. 5-BALI BABY looks like the only one capable of beating top choice. She just missed in a far tougher race than anything “Lisa” has faced so far. If she runs the way she did in last, she might be the first to cross the wire. 4-CRYSTAL SNOW could contest the lead. She led most of the way in her last two and came up just a little short. The shorter distance of this race could work in her favor.

3-STOPSHOPPINGAMY just missed. She’s moving up in claiming price but might be meeting a little easier than she has been facing under the conditions of this race. She went off as the heavy odds-on favorite in that race. Guessing she makes amends at another short price. 5-FREE LOVE could turn out to be the best of the speed despite the turn back in distance. She’s been tiring while meeting better but she wired the field, in a sprint, the last time she took on low-level claimers. Could try to do it again. 4-TIMELESS GLORY is another turning back. She won two of her last three starts running on or near the lead but figures to come off the pace a bit today.

Going to take a flyer with 8-MONEY AGENT. I know they were high on him early in the meet but he must be a head case in the gate since he has so much trouble at the start. Last, however, was his best race yet. They might be getting him under control. Can surprise. The two trained by Chris Block, 9-BORDER PATROL and 10-EVEN THE WIND, both figure prominently. Border Patrol finished third here in his local debut which was also his first race with Lasix. He could improve from both. Even the Wind ran well in five of his six turf races. He’s likely to be stalking the pace once again. 7-REGIMENTAL comes off his best race yet. He led most of the way and, even after he got passed, he made another run at them. 

T 1 E L Titanic 7 Hilarious Archie 4 Blue Katana

P 8 Reign Supreme 7 Leave It To Leo 6 Hes Sure Good

P 4 Cupid Shuffle 9 At Ease Hanover 1 Premier First Star

T 7 Queen Cabal 1 L A Parti 10 Muscone

P 6 Quite Nice 1 Hurrikane Msrodine 7 Sunset Soph

P 8 Sauble Ace 3 Ikes Dream 3 The Moment Arose

T 4 Ancient Wall 5 Hp Joni Moni 3 Quick Fix

P 7 Santana Hanover 6 Tignanello 3 Sounds Good

T 4 Lastkickatthecan 6 Shiny New Penny 10 Pretty Special

P 10 Beef N Cheddar 1 Machin A Trick 6 Sharky

P 2 Three Somewhere 3 Dice It Out 9 Cereal Killer