Handicapper Tips & Picks

Rednour will send out a pair in this race with the more logical, established #7 J J’S SOLUTION leading off the duo. As noted he is more established overall and stacks up with the others racing here this season and could just find the right group in the final days of the meet to belatedly clear the maiden condition. Trip/Pace must still be considered sprinting as he has shown himself to CLOSE in his sprint races and that trip does require racing luck to win – something to consider in addition to his overall race record at the projected shorter number. Stablemate #1 JAKES CHANNEL takes some creativity to get to though for this horse, the intention has been to race on the turf all year. He has just the lone grass race back on June 29^th (a few other off the turf races not all showing up in the form) when setting a faster pace for the mile distance and also racing off the layoff and in open company. There is some reason to suggest he has not shown his best yet.

#4 TEMPLE FOOL makes the circuit and surface switch for this third start. He has shown some run and improvement race to race. He returns from a 36-day freshening for this race coming back from the July 29^th FanDuel race in the slop, a racetrack with standing water and had issues at the start (TROUBLE_S – possible saddle slipped) before running (CLOSE) on late.

Looking at OptixPLOT, #5 SMOOTH ATTACK could hold a pace advantage as a Quad I Square (stalked by #8 FLYING CRICKET) though class has been the hurdle for both runners and something to consider here when assessing value. 

#7 CAIRO SUMMER has the chance to pop up in this spot with some upside given the Plot position in Quad I as a potential pace advantage. That edge is paired with the OptixNOTE from August 10^th with the PREP designation as she set the pace (FTQ) and stalked by her more fancied stablemate winner, Timeless Glory.

Of the closers/Quad IV, #5 IOYA AGAIN has the slight class edge over #3 MEMPHIS PRAYER and #4 AVIANO making his first start at today’s restricted claiming condition. In addition, he comes back from a competitive race, B- OptixGRADE, 72 OptixFIG and BTL effort on August 9^th. The surface switch will be in play and while this one does prefer the turf, his limited starts on the main track hold OptixFIG that stack up with today’s group and OFR/race par. 

#5 IN OPEN COURT is upgraded with the circuit switch and from the subtle trip (TRAFFIC, SHUFFLE) on August 3^rd at Colonial Downs. She showed run in that race though not quite to the top level of her competition (DROP) and should move up in today’s field. As far as the circuit switch, the change should also benefit #6 DEE DEE B, one that has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and that should move her up naturally here – also likely to be favored on that alone and must show more (visually) to win.

As far as the local group, #8 TEXAS PRINCESS turned in a solid B- OptixGRADE effort with the poor start (pattern of gate/SLOG issues) and handling (TROUBLE_S, TACTIC-) that created TROUBLE from the inside/SAVED trip and second best of the stretch duel with winner, Sangfroid. Going back to July 23^rd, #2 QUICK AND DIRTY was given a look at a price and that carries over to this race. She has recorded some competitive figures from the runners in the field and those races over the turf. The connections have been looking to get her to the turf not only for the race last month but three times prior with races take off the turf at Mountaineer.

#4 LIMANI is also a “new face” as she makes her local debut in this spot. This race was not the initial plan as she was entered in a MSW 5.5f sprint on August 13^th and as a Vet Scratch that day, they are taking this race with the added ground and claiming tag by default.

A lot of attention fell on #4 ROCK TO FAME when he debuted two weeks ago at Ellis Park bet down to 4-1 from a 15-1 morning line. As far as coming up short, he made a RUSH into a DUEL, stalked as the race was slowing late by the winner, Alder, the race favorite for Brad Cox. DiVito wheels right back and with this circuit switch and projects intent once again and preferred of the runners with experience. #3 MAXIMUM COLOR looks very live and could be the biggest threat in this field. He has a steady work tab with some sneaky good works and the rider assignment to Esquivel is noted for a top rider picking up the mount for a barn he does not often ride for here.

#5 LAST MINUTE will fit his name as he makes his belated debut in the final days for the meet. Going back to April, he blitzed 9.4 and did it nicely laying his body down and changing leads on cue, not surprised off the move to bring the higher price tag. His works have been relatively steady as of late though some subtle gaps in the published series as a slight reservation. 

Three of the runners with experience return from the August 13^th common race, a race that had two DELAY with an early scratch of a runner nearing post time and after the horses went to the gate, a further pause as the heavy race favorite acted up in the gate and had to be scratched. #8 EXCITABLE BOY moved into the role of the race favorite by default and could take up that role again off the common race, figures, and place finish. The surface/circuit change is in play for #5 METRONOME as he makes his second start and should find drier conditions than the downpour (WEATHER) he raced in on debut at Presque Isle. #6 NEON DEION will also find the surface switch, though there was some intention to race on the dirt as he was an early Vet Scratch from that August 13^th common race. He has some fitness on his side wheeling back from the WIDE trip two weeks ago, though must step up overall to win here.

Assessing the first time starters: #5 BAXLEY cooked 10f flat (wearing blinkers) at the OBS Sale back in April and expects to show speed here with Felix aboard. Visually off the breeze, he looks on the “turfy” side and overall could be some concern why it has taken this long to make a first start, especially with the longer, steady work tab. #3 KING ANTHONY really had to be put to a drive to clock the 10.3 time back in March and while he works looks more upbeat on paper (some gaps in works), he will have to show more speed to compete with this sprint distance. The works on paper are often not going to stand out with the Manny Perez runners and often look similar to the pattern of #4 MATRIX CODE first out. The barn has struggled with first time starters on the win end, and many have the pattern of breaking slow, though worth getting a look at this one in the paddock and prerace as these horses are all individuals and the right horse can overcome stats. The visual assessment carries to the other first time starters, #9 BERABERABERA and #10 QUEBRANCHO, another two for outfits that are not necessarily known for first time starters.

#6 STORMY EMPIRE is tough to get to looking at the Plot, though going through her races to date and this season, this could be the right time and place for her to get the first win of 2023. This will be her second start off the two month layoff and projects to improve with that PREP race under her belt. Class wise she will find a further change and could hold a class edge over some of today’s rivals as she has been racing against much tougher and for the higher purse structure. Looking at the Plot, #7 FIRST KITTEN is tough to ignore as the Large Square above the ParLine, stalking right off the Quad I/III Circles (#1 SAMARITA, #2 MISS WINDY SLEW and #3 PRINCESS STELLA) drawn on the inside and looking to get first run on the Quad III/IV Squares (#4 LONG TALL WOMAN, #5 SEAWARD and #8 CHAMPAGNE AFFAIR) to work the right trip. Some concern in form cycle as she is coming off the win and top 87 OptixFIG on August 17^th and must hold form here to run to that Plot position and shape. Form cycle also comes into play for #1 SAMARITA as she comes into this race on a win streak and with some “red” in the Past 3 Runlines/OptixNOTES including the REGRESS on August 3^rd. Trip also must be considered for her from the rail as she does not have many trip options with her RunStyle and that post. 

#4 FOLLOW THE SIGNS could get lost on the board in this full field and intent for this race following a scratch from a similar type of event on August 23^rd, the day when higher heats shifted to a later post time and allowed the Trainer Scratch. Following his season, the connections have been waiting to return to the turf and finally finding a grass race last month, they had to run higher than ideal against allowance company. The DROP should move him forward and even carries upside from the legit EX – EXCUSE with TROUBLE+ on July 16^th.

Both #8 EXPROMPT and #9 DRAGON DREW stayed in on August 23^rd with the smaller field, the two finishing 1-2 and should hold their form here to get back in the mix. #10 AZREAL was another Trainer Scratch from that common race and one that could add more early pace to the race. He has versatility as far as his RunStyle, though the outside post could dictate him showing early foot to get into the race, especially with a clean break – something he did not have in his July return races this year as shown in the Past 3 Runlines.

Morning line favorite, #6 LYRICAL POET makes the big circuit and class drop to run in this race. His early speed paired with the weight break should be to his advantage from a pace standpoint, something he will need and must prove best if he has to deal with today’s “Fire” Contention honest 32 SpeedRate to win. He is certainly capable of winning this race, though does appear this one is in to get claimed the connections willing to move on from this horse as the primary intent here. 

Trainer John Haran had a nice priced winner on Wednesday with Not Very Gentle and this horse is very similar. He ran a decent race at this level two back before running a better race than looks on paper last out, while facing much tougher. He could be returning to the form he showed earlier in the year and could be dismissed at the windows. 3-MEMPHIS PRAYER chased last out but lacked the finishing kick in that spot. He's going to need pace to chase as he figures to rate back early and run on in the lane. Let's see how he finishes in here. 1-BLURT has the potential to steal this race on the front end as he comes off a good effort last out. His two wins this year have both been gate to wire as the bug rider is likely to send him for the lead once again.

Not a great bunch and a horse that looks to be a good claim as 6-DEE DEE B comes in from Kentucky for Mike Reavis. She has run better in her last couple of starts and is fit off some lengthy morning works. Expect her to settle off a contested pace that should come back to the field. 5-IN OPEN COURT is another that will be closing late in the lane. She has faced tougher at Colonial in her last couple and gets the benefit of Esquivel in the saddle. 8-TEXAS PRINCESS just missed last out but that wasn't a great bunch either. She's another that is likely to sit back early and make one move, but with the new shooters in here, I wouldn't be surprised if she runs underneath in the gimmicks once again.

A nice bunch of 2yo runners as the horse with a little experience gets the nod. Went to 4-ROCK TO FAME as he comes off a good effort in Kentucky on his debut. He has speed, was pressed in his last and may be able to clear in here. Let's see if the stamina to finish is there today. 3-MAXIMUM COLOR debuts for Robertson as he has a nice workout pattern leading into here. To works are consistent and Esquivel gets the call. 6-STEELER MISCHIEEF comes in from Kentucky as he has also worked consistently into this spot. Every runner that has shipped in from this barn has been well intended as he could sneak off at a bit of a price.

A really tough bunch here as any could win. Took a bit of a shot with 3-KING ANTHONY as he debuts for Hernandez. He was gelded prior to his debut but has been working well and runs for an owner that has had a tremendous meet. 5-METRONOME comes in for Harty who has had success when shipping here this year. He flashed some speed in his debut before giving way but shortens up a 16th and should have more stamina for this start. 6-NEON DEION ran a good race on the grass in his debut as he chased and ran on late. He figures to rate in the second flight early and should be running on in the stretch.

Once of the most surprising horses this meet has been 5-PRANCIPANTS as she has looked like a different racehorse. The move to the Witthauer barn has helped as she has five victories on the meet. The last was the most impressive as she rated in the second flight and finished well. Quick return but she can handle this move. 2-COMMAND POINT is the one to beat as she has also been solid on the season. She has been favored in her last five and has finished no worse than second in her last four. 6-STACK SHACK was a horse I liked last out and she almost got the job down at 13-1 while sprinting. With the stretch in distance, expect her to show speed as she may try to clear and never look back.

Many in this group have beaten each other up all meet and the battle happens one last time. 7-FIRST KITTEN gets the nod for me off a solid performance in he last in a race that came off the grass. That wasn't the best AOC $40k bunch but it was similar to this field. She has tactical speed and should be able to pick where she wants to rate early on. 1-SAMARITA has been fantastic recently, winning three straight, the last impressively. She figures to rate close early from the inside but could potentially have some pace pressure early. 4-LONG TALL WOMAN isn't quite the horse she was last year, but she also isn't bad by any means as she has found the board in all seven starts on the year. She got a bit unlucky in her last as she got clear a bit too late but she's another with tactical speed who shouldn't be too far off the leaders at any point.

I'm really baffled by 6-LYRICAL POET as he makes his second start of the year but takes a big class drop after just missing for $32k in his last. Why does Ward have him here today. Maybe he crushes the field but I'll look to beat him and go to 8-EXPROMPT on top. He chased in the four horse turf race in the heat last week and battled the entire way. With his closing style, the bigger field helps as he should be charging in the stretch. 9-DRAGON DREW has speed and should be using it to get away from the outside draw. He had Exprompt measured in his last and figures to be a solid threat once again.

No clear favorite here. Going to go with 5-SMOOTH ATTACK. They have been trying to run him on turf and should finally get the chance. Comes off a good second-place finish. Could score in his grassy debut. 7-J J’S SOLUTION had had seven turf tries and finished in the money in two of them. He’s been in decent form lately. Makes his 26^th start but maybe it will be his day. 1-JAKES CHANNEL might have the best turf pedigree. However, he has been crushed in every race. But, he did show some speed in his lone turf race, going a mile. Might be more effective on the turf at this distance.

Not in love with 1-BLURT but this race is almost devoid of early speed…other than him. He wired the field in last when dropped in class. Might be able to do the same here despite taking on better. 5-IOYA AGAIN never won on the main track but he did have three seconds and two thirds in 13 starts while taking on far better. Drops to the lowest level of his career. Good late move is possible. 2-GOLD BUCKLE will never be considered quick but, compared to most in here, he’s a speed demon. He’s been running evenly but might have only top pick ahead of him coming out of the far turn.

8-TEXAS PRINCESS gets the nod. She raced competitively in her three turf starts. Might be taking on a bit better here but she can finish with a rush. 2-QUICK AND DIRTY showed some ability in her turf races. Unfortunately those races took place in 2020 and 2021. She had only one start, on dirt, in nearly two and a half years. Not sure what she has left. 4-LIMANI might be the quickest of these and early speed has been tough on this very firm turf course.

No guarantees here but 4-ROCK TO FAME displayed good speed in his debut at Ellis. He got caught in a speed duel which doomed his effort there but probably set him up perfectly for his Hawthorne debut. 3-MAXIMUM COLOR has been training forwardly for a barn that does well with their first-time starters. Esquivel (42% win percentage this meet) in the irons is certainly a plus. Owner Carolyn Wilson sends out a pair trained by Larry Rivelli. Both 1-GAVEL and 5-LAST MINUTE own sufficient drills and both could figure in the outcome.

8-EXCITABLE BOY was favored in his debut after the heavy favorite scratched at the gate. He almost lived up to his odds by leading from the start. He tired a bit to finish second. Not quite sure how to gauge that race but runners from his barn almost always improve with experience. Have to give him the benefit of the doubt. 6-NEON DEION ran well in his debut, finishing third of eight on the lawn. Moves to the main track for this. Runners often benefit from that move. Races for the leading barn. Could be tough. 3-KING ANTHONY had a couple sharp works coming into this race. He finished on even terms with another from this barn, two drills back, and that runner won a very tough heat on Thursday. This none might fly under the radar. Don’t ignore.

Hard to look past 5-PRANCIPANTS. She could very well be the most successful runner at the meet. She’s making her 15^th start of the year, winning five times. She was racing for the $5k claiming tag early in the year but she just scored an allowance win. She was getting good anyway but really kicked it into another gear after they moved her to grass. 1-APRIL’S GEM moves up in class but she’s riding a two-race win streak and she beat the morning-line favorite of this race in her last. Her last two wins were at seven and a half but the extra sixteenth mile of this race should be well within her realm. 2-COMMAND POINT has been favored in her last five races but managed to win only one of them. However, she’s been competitive every time. Could finally make amends.

The red-hot 1-SAMARITA should be tough. She won her last three races, showing good speed in two of the races and coming from off the pace in the other. She’s beaten many of these runners at least once. Has a good chance to do it again. 4-LONG TALL WOMAN was favored in last but couldn’t catch Samarita, finishing third by a neck. But she could get some help today. There are other front runners in here that might soften up top choice on the front end, if they choose to send that filly. Maybe this one will get the best of that one today. 7-FIRST KITTEN is always a threat. She’s dropping back out of allowance company. Like top choice, she’s comfortable on or off the lead. Could be right there at the finish.

6-LYRICAL POET takes a strange drop after making a strange trip here from Saratoga. This fleet gelding narrowly lost for $32k. Can’t understand the drop or the trip here but he does loom as the one to catch. 5-MALPAIS has some past class. He hasn’t been too sharp this year but he hasn’t been in this easy. The move back to the lawn should certainly help. 8-EXPROMPT also figures big time. He was the odds-on favorite in last but had to settle for second. Could get his revenge for that loss today.