Handicapper Tips & Picks

A tricky race to start the closing day card. The race shape is tough to assess with many changes to run in this spot and that combined with the 5.5f distance. Controlling speed could sit with #3 HIP HOP EMMY making her second start off the layoff and wheeling back in two weeks after setting the pace and fading late. #1 GOTTA B KITTEN ME is the lone “E” shown on OptixPLOT, though finds a distance change along with the rail where she will be tested, though not out of it as she looks for a belated win. #7 SUNSET PAYNTER is another looking for a belated win. She has shown run in spots, though not always has been placed in the right spot for her abilities and finding the softest level this season, she should have little excuses here.

#4 DR. BELLA also finds a class change and that change with the distance brings trip into play especially for one that has a pattern of gate/SLOG issues and makes her run from off the pace. #6 EVIE JEAN is lighter on class and found the right group to clear the maiden condition last month. While she is who she is, she fits with this field and as a consistent type can find her way in for a share. 

#5 JAMAICAN TRAFFIC has some buried form here at Hawthorne sprinting and at this $6250k N2L claiming level to suggest she can compete. #2 HOLY IMAGE moved up on the class relief to run at this level in the August 20th common race. Overall this is the level where she fits and while she does not have any strong edge she comes into this race with form and should offer value given the recent running lines, finishing positions and the connections. 

The TACTIC- on #2 SENSE OF SELF has been less than ideal all season and to her credit has shown run with that trip adversity. We shall see what Bendezu brings as he jumps aboard today for the first time and coming back with the shorter sprint distance.

Hugo Rodriguez returns with a pair in this race and keying off recent visuals, #4 GOOD MONGOLIA is preferred over #3 GET NONE coming back in this race. The class drop moved up GOOD MONGOLIA last out and finds a positive rider change as Colon takes over – the rider that was assigned on August 23^rd before the Trainer Scratch.

In terms of the early pace, there are many that prefer to run on or near the lead giving the edge of that group to #6 JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL. She comes back today to the level she dropped into on August 13^th and turned in a competitive effort to move into a DUEL after stumbling at the start/TROUBLE_S. She picks up Esquivel today and seems to further intent for this runner. 

#2 MAGNA MASSA has consistently run some of the higher figures of those in this field and if she can put it together today this is the right spot. She has the tendency to SLOG and trip comes into play following and part of the reason for the minor finishes. At the closing day of the meet they should be all-in looking for this belated 2023 win. 

Better late than never as #4 MARYHADALITTLELAM makes a belated return on closing day. She has some hurdles coming back off the layoff, though at the same time did show she can fire fresh breaking her maiden on debut and could project improvement coming back as a four-year-old. There is also a pace scenario to flatter her RunStyle making a run from off the pace with plenty of Contention shown with the “Fire” rating on OptixPLOT.

In terms of the early speed, things should be kept honest be #5 SISTER KISSES coming off a solid debut win last month at Ellis Park. Claimed out of that race, she will be tested to hold her form and there can be some reservations as it appeared she was well intended favored first out for hot connections.

Eduardo Rodriguez will also return with #1 VISIONISTA from a subtle trip lacking ROOM playing a role in the show allowance finish 11-days ago. She will make her second start (only other time was the $20k debut at FG in December) in for the tag today, though not a "giveaway" at the higher price tag and the timing waiting to make this move in the final day.

The lack of true E/EP types could benefit #1 STAR ON THE MAP one that has been able to show early speed in the past and wheels right back with a significant class drop to suggest intent. In addition to a potential pace advantage and the class relief, he now has some conditioning under his belt and can be upgraded further with the TROUBLE in running.

#3 CHERRY ORCHARD is not a true front running type though has shown more tactical speed at times and that could be the key here with Colon, the place rider from July 30^th back aboard. He makes the shift to Quad I as does #7 ONE ACE that could see him upgraded under today’s conditions though overall has been average (C/C+ OptixGRADE) at this level with his most competitive race this season the $4k claiming event on July 18^th at FanDuel.

The pace (or lack of) could be a hurdle to play against #6 JACKPOT BOY on that fits otherwise at this level and one of his more competitive races this season was at this distance on July 23^rd making a CLOSE X_FLOW following another SLOG, a pattern for this horse. #4 INDIO GUAPO has yet to run that “fast” race, though has some upside as he takes the needed class drop and positive SHORTER distance change. 

#5 CELIA'S CIRCLE projects to be a longer shot in this race and for good reason as he steps up in class shifting to this circuit and comes in with the "slower" figures compared to others. With that said, he is worth a mention coming back from the freshening and July 1st night race over a course with standing water and they showed run/MOVE after the SLOG and on hold (TACTIC-) between horses (TRAFFIC) against/X_FLOW the dynamic with minimal change in running order. 

This is a competitive race and that could see public attention default to #2 SPEED WARNING the new face shipping in from Laurel Park with the barn (same owner) change to Engler. The change in locale could move this one up though as far as OFR there is not real change in this race from his turf races this season and has lacked excuse not to win. Lopez, the rider on August 3^rd had Speed Warning in a perfect trip sitting right off the pacesetter and when the running started late, he was just one paced/PLODDY doing best to hold show.

DiVito will send out a pair in this race and project #6 PLAUSIBLE DENILE to appear the more obvious even with the surface switch, though as far as his races this season he has been disappointing and lacking any clear excuses. To be fair, today’s OFR is lighter than the allowance races he has run in this season and could move up on that alone. His overall form is more concerning than the surface switch and rider change, though those moves at this point do not totally inspire confidence. As far as his stablemate #7 EASY FAST, he is less accomplished though carries upside. In terms of numbers, his maiden 80 OptixFIG stacks up with others in the field and if he is to step up off that figures, this would be the timing. The connections were looking for a sprint race prior to the August 20^th start and off the visual and “placement by default” he physically looks on the SPRINTER side and should move up with that distance change alone.

#3 ON K P is the most established runner at this level, course, and distance though perhaps to a fault as he has run well though even on his best day has had to settle for a minor. While it is capable he catches the right group, time, and trip here, some value is still required on the win end.

Assessing the two recent maiden winners: #1 CONGRATS ON FIFTY came through as the favorite his second start and could gather some intent for turf as that race was moved to the main track. As far as the track profile on July 26^th, the track was playing fast and tough to make up ground on keeping those factors in mind when looking at the running line and finishing position. As far as the strength of that race, Ice Shard (BIAS upgrade) came back to win, though the rest of the field still remains in maiden status and many that could require MCL to compete. #5 SAWYER FOX dominated the group making his return on August 6^th. He is capable of holding his form and even taking a step forward as a lightly raced type. The board should be monitored as the “live” Catalano runners have been heavily represented in the pools this season – even at a shorter price, and “intention” value must still be assessed even as “they” might “knew.”

Hernandez taking back over on #4 TRY TRY AGAIN catches the eye as he has had success aboard going back to the early season efforts and April win as well as the ride from the rail on July 27^th gaining just too late on the PERFECT trip winner and today’s rival, #3 LYKAN.

#6 BLOW TORCH wheels right back to run here under similar conditions though a slightly lower OFR that could move him up in today’s event. He also finds a rider change with Loveberry taking over and could see a more assertive ride, a ride keeping him close to the pace.

#7 CAN MAN DO should also be looking for the lead as that is where he has been more effective and looking at the Surface/Distance Plot could have that early pace advantage. Class could have had him exposed making his return last month off the 52-day break to the higher all around OC$40k event. There was some intent to run in the August 23^rd race and unable to get Santiago that day as he was aboard the eventual winner, W W HOTSHOT, that could have been reason for the scratch and lands here where Santiago can keep the call.

This could be the day for #1 REAL NEWS and for Martinez, a strong outfit that has at times struggled here at Hawthorne this season. He has back class and on current form has shown progression with improving OptixFIGS/GRADES making this third start off the layoff. #4 LAND MARK DEAL also returning from the August 10^th race where he had a big look on the day and turned in a good effort all things considered; and especially considered the poor TACTIC- from Santiago that will quickly see the rider change and return of Centeno today.

Looking outside that pair at a pair that could be overlooked and contend: #3 HUEY ATTACK has a longshot look in this race and could be a live look for the barn with Esquivel taking over. As far as current form, he has held his form though has been overmatched in the races this season and should move up with the class change and softer OFR moving him up into contention. As far as the surface switch, physically he looks on the TURF side and going through his form has run competitive races on the turf – the Dark Star Turf Sprint last year at Canterbury was not competitive enough for the win though the 87 OptixFIG fits here and going back to his other turf sprints out at Arlington Park (RIP) his numbers remained consistent and even recording a 92 OptixFIG in a stakes at Ellis Park.

#7 RACE DRIVER is the “other” Martinez and making his first start off the claim in this spot. He has some strong back numbers on the turf sprinting going back to 2020 in Kentucky and at the FG and that carried here last Fall with two strong numbers earning B/B- OptixGRADE in those place finishes.

#9 LET’S GO ALAMO will find some class relief as he makes the circuit switch from the competitive Optional Claiming events ($80k purse) at Colonial Downs. He could also be upgraded on his current form and form cycle when taken out of his RunStyle on August 17^th into a DUEL and can move into his preferred stalking trip, sitting outside of #5 BOURBON TEDDY and #6 SMOKIN RICHIE especially as they favorably draw outside and reunite with Lezcano.

#2 COMISKEY PARK has found his top form as of late at FanDuel though coming off two top efforts looks peaked both on numbers and visuals coming into this race and should be considered if a shorter price is in play. Value should also be assessed with #8 MAJOR WAGER one that has some back races that put him in the mix, though his current form requires returning to those efforts here to win. As far as his recent races it should be noted that he did have a legitimate EX – EXCUSE in the July stakes at HS Indy. 

#3 READTHECLIFFNOTES moves up as he returns to statebred company and has shown class, versatility, and consistent figures this season to compete in this spot. Esquivel will take over today and could be some intent despite this being the first time aboard. He is preferred in this spot of the three Boyce runners and of the others in this field.

Mare #5 CAT ATTACK should keep the pace (and likely #8 GITA’S LAD company) honest while #4 JEFF THE LION is overall lighter on the win end, he has a solid late kick (Quad IV Square) and could come running late and offer a little more value today than #2 WESLAN and #6 SILVER QUARTERS two with a similar RunStyle and Plot position.

#1 TEMPER TANTRUM is the other in this field that has shown he can compete at the stakes level, however…he is a much different horse on the turf than on the main track and while his turf races fit strongly he has yet to show he can transfer that form to the main track. 

It is interesting to see Erin Thompson ship in #7 LITTLE HOT MESS for this race and could suggest intent today as they pick this spot to make their first start off the trainer change. They were entered and with Perez aboard in the Clarksville Stakes ($100k purse) on July 7^th at HS Indy and ultimately a Trainer Scratch from that event. LITTLE HOT MESS recorded a solid 75 OptixFIG on debut at Keeneland, her only turf start, after setting a Fast early pace, a number that stacks up as the highest in the field.

#8 MADAM BLUE is right there with LITTLE HOT MESS number wise earning a 74 OptixFIG after nearly pulling off the front end upset win on debut back in July at LAD and following that effort was privately purchased and makes her first start from that sale today for Rivelli and Loveberry in the saddle.

Number wise the rest of the field sits below those two off what they have run in their career and this season at Hawthorne. The shift in distance back to a sprint could benefit #2 PACIFIC VIEW one that has been knocking on the door all season. #3 BONITA D’ORO as she was more effective from off the pace making a run in those sprint though as far as class for the MSW level. Class also appears the challenge for #6 ANGEL EXPRESS one that has been consistent this year though must find a little more off those efforts here to get the win. 

Trainer Lilia Gonzalez has had a fine meet and done so with some price horses. She has 1-GOTTA B KITTEN ME in here as she takes the class drop. The recent races have shown signs of improvement and while sprinting she may rate and rally. Let's see if she gets enough pace to chase. 3-HIP HOP EMMY has speed as she made the top in her last and contended well into the lane. She did tire late but now shortens up a 16th as that could make the difference. 6-EVIE JEAN has tactical speed as she was a good winner two back and ran well in her last. She has been in the best form of her career this year and merits a look.

The pace in here is going to be quick and contentious. Let's see if it sets up for the closers. Huge Rodriguez has two entered as I'll look to the longer price and go with 4-GOOD MONGOLIA on top. She has run well at this distance this meet and was closing late in her last. Maybe she can upset in here. 3-GET NONE has been a turf specialist and may have needed her last. She makes the second start off the layoff as she should be flying in the lane. 6-JUJU'S SPECIALGIRL needs to avoid a pace battle upfront as she could tuck in just behind and close in the lane. She battled in her last and picks up Esquivel today.

Two in here from the Rodriguez barn as 5-SISTER KISSES comes in off the claim in Kentucky. She raced well in her debut and was taken for $16k. She takes a logical step up in class here as she should be able to stalk the pace and pounce in the lane. 2-MAGNA MASSA is another that will likely get a good tracking trip. She ran well on the grass last out and has battled this meet as she looks for her first win on the year. 3-HEAVENLY SCENT has speed and may be quick enough to make the lead. If she is able to clear, she could potentially never look back.

Looks like it is the move to win, and maybe get claimed, with 1-STAR ON THE MAP. He clearly had some issues as he was claimed back at Arlington in 2021 and came back this meet after a lengthy layoff. A rider change on the class drop as Lezcano figures to send for the top and look to wire this field. 6-JACKPOT BOY has been clunking into the mix of late and could again as the added 16th will benefit him. He is going to need pace to chase though and there isn't much of it in here. 3-CHERRY ORCHARD will likely be chasing as he has run some decent races on the meet. He has lacked finish though as he tends to run evenly in the lane.

Like the move to bring 2-SPEED WARNING in as he has run well in turf sprints and finds a nice spot today. He has enough speed to tuck in just off the leaders and get the jump on the closers in the lane. 5-SAWYER FOX ran a nice race in victory on the dirt last out and should be forwardly placed in here. Let's see how he handles the grass as he comes back in after training in Kentucky. 6-PLAUSIBLE DENILE also could be one that rates close as he shifts to the grass as well. It was a solid effort two back but he disappointed a bit in his last. Wouldn't be surprised if we see some speed with Weatherly in the saddle.

Trainer Coty Rosin has had a fine meet as he sends 6-BLOW TORCH out in this spot. He ran solid races in his last two as he chased a strong winner last out. Look for him to sit back in the second flight and come running in the lane. 3-LYKAN will be coming from a bit further back as he makes his second start for the new connections. He closed down the center of the lane in his last but was just left with too much work to do. He's worth a look though as he could sneak off at a decent price. 1-WEST WARPATH has enough speed to contend as he should be able to get a good early position and run on late. The distance suits and the price should be right.

Some turf sprint specialists in here as 1-REAL NEWS comes off a good effort last out. He settled back in there and closed behind a solid winner. There's not the same type of early pace in here though as he should rate closer and rally late. 6-SMOKIN RICHIE has the speed but he was left to chase in his last. He should be the one to make the top today as his best races come on the front end. 4-LAND MARK DEAL closed nicely last out after a slow start. If he can get away a bit better today, he should be able to rate closer early and contend late.

3-READTHECLIFFNOTES is the horse for the course as he has won 10 times at Hawthorne. He has tactical speed in here but is typically at his best when rating just off the pace. Look for him to track stablemate 5-CAT ATTACK and run by in the lane. Cat Attack has speed and may have the ability to clear and never look back. He's better on the turf but does have a dirt win here last December. If he goes unchallenged early, he could potentially steal this race. 6-SILVER QUARTERS won't show much early speed but could come running on late. He's going to need the top two to battle early though which may be unlikely.

Last race of the meet as the meet's leading trainer has the heavy favorite in 8-MADAM BLUE in here. She showed speed and battled to the wire before being caught in her debut but comes here today with nice works and gets Lasix for the first time. 9-GOLD OAK has tactical speed as she figures to tuck in behind Madam Blue. She has been better since getting to the turf and may be a decent price. 3-BONITA D'ORO could be a longshot play as she closed well two races back. Lezcano has ridden her well and there may be a good amount of pace to chase.

1-GOTTA B KITTEN ME drops and turns back in distance. She’s been tiring late in her races but has been displaying good speed early. Think she’ll finish with something left at this distance. 4-DR. BELLA ships in from Indiana. All of her previous races have been against better. Think she’s dropping to score.6-HIP HOP EMMY tired in last but she was making her first start since April. This race is a sixteenth shorter and she should be fitter from her recent trip. Could be on the lead throughout. 6-EVIE JEAN took 26 races to break her maiden but came right back with a good second-place finish at this level. Could be a major player once again.

3-GET NONE might get it all. She wasn’t up to the challenge when taking on $20k claimers in last but she did win her prior two races at the $10k claiming level giving her six local scores. Figures to be tough off the drop. 1-STACY ATTACK owns better speed than top choice and she did win her last but she also finished behind Get None the last two times they met. 6-JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL was favored over top choice in last and she did run well but got passed late and wound up in second place. But think she’s a bit quicker than her rivals in this spot. If she can secure the early lead, she might last on the front end.

5-SISTER KISSES was a commanding winner in her debut at Ellis. She was heavily favored in that race and drew off to win by seven. She was also claimed from that effort. Faces winners for the first time but is she runs today like she did in that last race she could win another by daylight. 1-VISIONISTA could stalk then pounce. It took her nine starts to break her maiden and they ran her back on turf in her first start against winners. But after that dismal experiment they sent her out of the main track and she finished third in allowance company. Drops in for a tag today. Has a good chance to edge by late. 2-MAGNA MASSA has been racing competitively for a while. Fresh off a third-place finish on the lawn, she heads back to the main track for this. Worth noting is her second-place finish at Churchill the last time she raced in a claimer on the main track.

Don’t really like 1-STAR ON THE MAP but he’s dropping sharply after showing nothing in his first race back after a 20-month layoff. He might still have enough left to win at this level. 3-CHERRY ORCHARD finished in the money the last five times he raced at this level. Might finally get over the hump in what appears to be an extremely weak field. 4-INDIO GUAPO is another dropper. He’s had eight career starts without showing much but he might suddenly improve at this level.

It’s possible that there will be a three to four-way fight for the early lead in this race but think 1-CONGRATS ON FIFTY just might have the edge in that department. This will be his turf debut but they had him entered for turf in his last start and that race got moved to the main track. He crushed the field in that five-furlong dirt sprint. As mentioned above, this is his turf debut and he’ll be meeting a plethora of other speed but he might be capable of putting them away. 2-SPEED WARNING makes his local (Hi Marty) and barn debut. He ran well in two of his three previous turf races. He could try for the lead today but think his game is just going to be pressing the pace. Turf experience could give him the edge. We’ll see. The pace of this race is likely to be fast and contested and that could set things up for the two Childers-trained runners, 9-KINGSBURRY ATTACK and 8-MAN ON ATTACK. Both are likely to go off at high prices and both are likely to be coming on late.

6-BLOW TORCH looks tough. The field he faced in last, though short, was superior to this. And the same can be said for his prior two races, which he won. Of course, he’s going to need some help in the pace department. There isn’t that much speed in this race and is one of the runners gets clear easily, this late runner could have a hard time catching them. 7-CAN MAN DO looks like the best of the speed. He’s probably going to face some early pressure but seems likely to put them away before too long. If he can do that soon enough, he might not get caught. 4-TRY TRY AGAIN is usually in the hunt. He owns competitive speed figures. Like top choice, he could be pace dependent, however. Will make a late move but not sure it will be enough.

7-RACE DRIVER might surprise. He raced on the main track all of 2023 but he was good on turf in the past. He narrowly lost his last two turf races here in December. Figures to be stalking the pace in his first race after getting claimed by this barn. Could get there late. 1-REAL NEWS, stablemate of top choice, certainly figures. He’s earned more on turf and more at this distance than any of his rivals. He’s had trouble in both races this meet. A clean trip could get him home in front. 2-COMISKEY PARK, 6-SMOKIN RICHIE and maybe a couple others, could be fighting it out on the front end but if one does succeed in getting clear early, they might not get caught. 9-LETS GO ALAMO ships from a tougher circuit and drops in class. Wouldn’t count him out.

3-READTHECLIFFNOTES is always tough against Illinois breds. His lone win this year came in the Black Tie Affair against state breds. But he generally runs well against any kind of competition and any kind of surface. He’s been good on the lead or coming from off the pace. Won 10 of his 17 local starts and he’s five for 11 at the distance. Can’t guarantee that he’ll win this but he does promise to give his all. 5-CAT ATTACK could be worth another look. She’s a mare meeting the boys but she is loaded with speed and seems likely to grab the early lead. If not challenged quickly, she could take it all the way. 2-WESLAN is likely to show some late run. Don’t think he’s fast enough to win this but he could get up for the show dough at a price.

8-MADAM BLUE seems likely to graduate. She finished second in her debut in Louisiana after leading much of the race. Today she’ll get Lasix and make her first start for the leading barn. Don’t think they’ll catch her. 6-ANGEL EXPRESS was favored in last and did run well but she was checked late which cost her momentum. She still finished third but would likely have been better with a clean trip. 5-GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN never had a chance in last. She lost her footing at the start and never recovered. But her other turf races weren’t bad and she’s turning back to her best distance for this. Could come flying late.