Handicapper Tips & Picks

Pace could be the key to the race and looking for #6 CAPTIVATED DRAMA (flow upgrade from the 8/30 IND allowance) and #8 JUDO (freshened with the return to dirt and claiming) to get the jump on #3 DUAL MONARCHY and #4 INEXORABLE - as well as deeper closer #5 JEWELSTOWN. 

#1 OVERLY D'ORO recorded a B- OptixGRADE in a place finish at this level course and distance last November and shows up off a BTL allowance effort two weeks ago at Belterra Park. 

This is a competitive MSW with a lot of ways to go and that could see #5 PINFIRE overlooked. Going back to the Fair Grounds he presented as a TURF horse and did not have the opportunity to run on the surface given the sparse amount of grass races. Overall he was a bit overmatched on January 21st though to his credit that race has turned out decent and PINFIRE setting the pace returns as a flow upgrade. 

#7 BOAT SONG could present a hidden pace advantage in this event showing more tactical speed than it appears on paper. A move forward could also present in this second start off the layoff, wheeling right back in 12-days from CBY and from a subtle trip making a middle move into a fast pace. 

#3 CAPTAIN JACK also returns in a second off the layoff from a subtle trip last month at Ellis Park. He drew the rail and moved up early from the inside taking some kickback dropping back and racing like he needed the race chasing for the minors behind open length 3-5 winner, (also lone Quad I Square) Sinner's Sin. 

#7 MOTEL MISCHIEF could be overlooked as she ships in from HS Indy and off a sneaky good BTL effort. The race has produced two next out winners though MOTEL still finds the class rise on the circuit switch. The class change is noted though not as significant as race winner Lemorian came back in the Spinaway (G1) earlier this month at Saratoga. 

#6 RAINING SUGAR is cross entered in the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) on Saturday and given a mention should they land here instead. 

Analysis from 9/16: RAINING SUGAR showed a lot of class on debut. She made a positive physical appearance, lunged slightly out of the gate, rated inside behind pacesetters, showed another gear moving outside and taking over from the pacesetting place. That race was scheduled for the turf and clearly she can handle the main track and also off her visuals could see her handle grass as well – a versatile type. She will be tested here and from the questionable race strength as seven of the August 4th runners have come back and without much improvement in the group and remain maiden eligible.

Looking at OptixPLOT, #7 LEND IT TEWMEY could present a subtle pace advantage positioned as Quad I/II Square above the ParLine. Form and class also given him a look as he returns from a wide trip on August 18th and keying off the effort and figure earned here running at the higher $30k N2L condition back on June 4th. 

#2 LOOK AWAY put in a sneaky good run despite the 7th place finish here at Hawthorne on August 30th. He returns with a key rider change after the TACTIC- to Mojica and further intent with this placement noting a trainer scratch from a higher conditional $10k claiming race on Monday, 9/11 to run here instead. As far as the trip, he requires pace to run at and should have that in today's "Fire" Contention. 

#9 CHIMES looks tough in this spot on the drop and projects to be a shorter number. Looking outside that runner, #7 OUT OF PROMISES took the class drop to claiming company on August 28th (EX on 8/22) where she against had legit TROUBLES+ at the start. #6 C F V BRUTUS stepped up in class in that 8/28 race and with TROUBLE_S and EX worthy trip and still turned in a BTL effort.

Trip/Plot also upgrades #1 ENCHANTED MELODY and #8 MYGALJUSTICE as runners to keep on the radar. 

#7 SKIPPINJUSTICE turned in a BTL B OptixGRADE effort at this level on August 19th and that race buried behind the dirt race 6th place finish. As far as that most recent start, she was compromised by the dynamic/X_FLOW and today's race shape projects to have an honest pace coded with the 78 SpeedRate. 

The class DROP is key for #1 A FEW TOO MANY as he returns here. The change in class is key for him to compete as well as get himself into the race. He should be able to show more tactical speed in this spot, from the rail and with Mojica taking over to rate off #3 ORO AZTECA one that could present a pace advantage to upgrade him. Trip is key as the main rivals #6 D'ORO'S WISH and the Contreras pair #5 JOVA and #7 AZZARO STELL are all capable types though tend to make their run from off the pace.