Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 B SUDD is still unproven at today's two turn route distance, a factor that should see him drift from the 5-2 ML designation. Some value is required with that in play though as an individual he fits on speed, form and class and could even present a pace advantage expecting to be forward and attempt a front running score. 

#6 QUATERNION is proven over this course, distance and class level keying off the MSW win back in May on the Derby undercard - that effort makes him a player today and should find the right trip tracking just off B SUDD with first run.  

#3 FURIOUS ANGER looks live for Romans and suited to today's sprint distance. His work on 9/9 was sneaky good as he was not asked for the bulk of the drill asked and answered with a strong run in the final furlong and went out strongly after the wire, the move executed as designed. The barn will also sent out #6 BOPTROT to make his belated debut, the five-year-old in his first start here. He has the faster works "on paper" given a different ask in his style of training - also not he most willing to change leads. 

#9 BEARINGS made an impressive run according to OptixNOTES when he made his debut last December at AQU. He will give up recency and as far as distance, this 6f could be shorter than his ideal, though still has some run and ability to given a mention and follow here. 

This race could be open as ML favorite #5 SAHALAT going out for Pletcher has been cold here at CD with "logical" type runners coming up short and remains a trend to follow and react to for opportunities. 

Couple of longshots to give a mention as the public is likely to default to the Cox pair (#1 MANCIATA D'ORO and #2 SLIP MAHONEY) and look toward #3 DENNINGTON (hot barn okay horse) and #5 OSCAR ECLIPSE (class tested) as the alternatives and shorter than potential fair odds; with a similar lack of value on #7 BIG DATA with the 5-1 ML (fair at least 5x that number) as he comes into this race below (speed/class) for today's par.

#4 SHIRL'S BEE showed talent on debut in a productive maiden race in debut and validated that effort coming back in stakes company. He has not been seen since and has been training consistently over this course coming into this race though has a tough task ahead coming off the bench and 9.5f distance - where that price compensation comes into play.

Oliver wheels right back with #6 LINCOLN HIGHWAY an interesting move though not totally surprising as the effort just under a week ago was sneaky good and the trip compromised his chances for a better position. 

#3 LOYAL COMPANY has yet to run a "bad" race (all green/black OptixNOTES/GRADES) since his BTL debut back in March. He was class tested last month in the Ellis Park Derby making his stakes debut and showed he belonged at the level; however he was exposed on distance and upgraded with the cutback today. 

As far as #6 EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS he also has been tough to knock in his races to date, however has benefit from favorable trips/race shapes. In addition, he just paired up his debut figure last out at Saratoga in allowance company and that is noted as he has yet to take that progressive step forward.  By contrast, LOYAL COMPANY has improved his OptixFIG race-to-race and his two more recent Ellis Park starts recorded higher figures (99, 98) than the paired 97's for EVERSO. 

Looking to get creative, #5 CHAMPAGNE CALLING has a lot of ability and given the timing, placement of races and trips has not always had the opportunity to show her true potential. One of the races that caught the eye was the allowance back on the Oaks undercard run over today's course and distance. She had the "longshot" look that day as well keying off her sneaky good local (CD) debut and dominant (B+ OptixGRADE, TWO_MOVES, X_FLOW) MSW win at Tampa. CHAMPAGNE CALLING earned a 95 OptixFIG for that allowance win, the second highest dirt figure in the field - a number behind the 100 earned by #2 TAXED in the BES (G2) a number that could be an outlier given the course/distance and sticks out from every other number TAXED has run. 

#2 METAPHYSICAL is worth consideration in this competitive event especially at her morning line. She returns from a legit EX - EXCUSE that compromised her ability to run her race in the CT Oaks (G3) last month. She has stakes/graded stakes experience and has run well in this races considering the two-turn distance and remaining at one-turn might turn out to be the right overall move for this filly. 

#9 LEXA has some legitimate longshot qualities to her in this race though upside at the same time to make a case at a price. She showing progress since coming back this year and even since her juvenile debut here last year improving figures race-to-race. That was cut short on 8/5 at Ellis race compromised by the post and trip unable to work something out in addition to being her first start against winner. The 8/5 Ellis Park race has been a productive "key" race and one that could be overlooked as the runners from that event that came back in their next start finished off the 8/5 board and their names do no appear in the short comment "paper" running lines. 

#9 RUMBLEINTHEVALLEY has back numbers and class that makes him a contender in this spot. His current form can also be upgraded in this second start of the cycle and of the meet returning from a wide trip against the flow on 9/17. 

#7 FOX VALLEY SADIE was impressive with the win (B+) making a wide move. She has been competitive all season and competitive against many of today’s rivals. She is value in the face and if #5 FOX VALLEY TARAN is favored, one that fits here though was able to get a comfortable front end trip on 9/10 and likely to find a different, more contested early pace today.

#10 TICKTOCK TICKTOCK turned in a BTL effort despite given a legit excuse on 9/17. The overall visuals from that event suggest that they can compete under similar circumstances. This race could be a little tougher, though a competitive effort all around is projected.

#2 SOUR GRAPES unable to compete last week (SICK) given a follow from the 9/10 race, a near excuse given the trip and making a move against the flow and can improve.

Visually looked like #3 RONA MAE was not asked for her best (combined with ground loss) on 9/10 and with a move forward projected, she looks to compete here.

#8 FOX VALLEY LEAH did have a favorable “perfect” trip though visually dominant on 9/10. Rival from that race and again here, #7 SOME DANCING STAR could get overlooked here and the “no factor” is not considering she was making a strong late run and visually could see a move forward off that 5^th place here.

#4 ASHLEES’S LIL ANGEL posted a BTL effort on 9/15 and could be given strong consideration at a similar level to last week though as she steps up here, will be tested. 

Both #2 SLEAZY SISTER (upgraded setting fast pace) and #3 FOX VALLEY TASHA (BTL) from the 9/17 common race - the race shape was slowing late and the top 5 finished together. #4 ADALECIA was part of that blanket result though did benefit from the race shape and saving ground.

#5 FOX VALLEY GINA looks overmatched against this group though given a mention when she returns to the right level given a solid close on 9/16. 

#1 MATTIE SHARK should be under the radar coming off the recent two weeks. She opened with early money on 9/9  before drifting up against a higher class and projects to improve off sneaky visuals on 9/16. #6 RK’S TONI also returns from that common race and subtle trip, though part of the trip due to running against some better rivals – number wise she is on the slower side. On the same day (9/16)  just one race earlier (R9) #2 MISS LARRY also projects to improve coming back from that 7^th place result. Like MATTIE SHARK, #7 MINNESOTA MINNIE raced in the 9/9 event and has some improvement available in her own right with numbers not far off the better races from #10 REVENGE ROSIE.

New face #4 READ BTWN THE LIES figures to be a big threat returning to the efforts she recorded in the first part of August; those efforts stand out strongly here. Those races are not far off the more established #5 SAFE GUARD as she ships in for a local debut.

#8 TRIDENT BORN might be race out making a September debut here though has shown some run at times and expects an honest effort here.

#4 JOY IN MUDVILLE leads the pack returning from common race on 9/17 with a BTL effort. #5 FREE ART knows how to win and finds some class relief off her most recent HoP start to move up at today’s condition.

Overall tough to split longshots here, #6 FOX VALLEY LANSING and #7 FOX VALLEY CARLOS both turning in competitive races with different style trips in the 9/16 common race. #10 APRIL’S BIG GUY was just behind that pair on the day though off the visuals, he appears to have a move forward. 

#7 THE MAGICAL WOMAN finished right behind #1 MY DADDYS REVENGE on 9/10 though overall there was not much between them visually. #8 FOX VALLEY KIA also not far behind them on any metric with her show finish impacted by the race flow and trip taken off the pace early.

#6 FILLYS REVENGE comes out of a solid race on 9/10 and showed legit speed from the start more than what it shows on the running line and figures to be the controlling speed here. 

Tough to knock #8 FOX VALLEY TESSA off her two starts this season – and improvement race-to-race. She was smartly handled to hold for the 9/10 win and came back with a “winning” effort second place finish on 9/17.

#1 HYPEYOURBESTIEUP also is logical as she has been a consistent type. Taking last week off, she will return from the 9/10 win and perfect trip going clear from her competition.

Those two share a common rival in #7 CHICKABELL – one that returns from a place finish alongside FOX VALLEY TESSA on 9/10 and overall has been consistent finishing in the exacta. 

The analysis starts with #9 BROOKE’S OCEAN projects to be favored here with her recent form and figures coming into this race. Running back to the 9/7 effort she could be very tough; at the same time she was on the improve recorded a new top and there is some concern coming back today if she did peak in her form cycle – that would open up the race.

Keeping in mind the open length winner, Toncredblyfastforu on 9/17, both #1 KIZZZMELIKEUMISSME and #2 ADMIT finishing gamely for the minors and fit back under similar conditions here. That outcome also upgraded #6 FOUND MY ROCK one that made a move, subtle BTL and has back numbers and form from Oak Grove that fit on par here to compete.

#3 DRIVIN THE DIXIE is softer number wise, though mentioned as she also from that common race could get overlooked and visually a BTL effort in her own right and could be some intent with a driver change. 

5-MAPLE GROVE MANCIN-Seems fastest by far

2-MR RED THUNDER-Strong longshot 2^nd in last

9-RUMBLEINTHEVALLEY-Last couple weren’t bad

7-FOX VALLEY SADIE-Great wins last two

5-FOX VALLET TARAN-Refused to lose local debut; very game

10-TICKTOCK TICKTOCK-Late break cost her

8-FOX VALLEY LEAH-Won seven of eight

1-ONE R ANDIS STAR-Takes charge quickly; can last

5-KEEN KATHY-Maybe improves with trip over the track

2-SLEAZY SISTER-Might seize control quickly and stay there

3-FOX VALLEY TASHA-Could have dead aim late

5-FOX VALLEY GINA-Maybe improves enough to share

5-SAFE GUARD-Indy shipper meets easier

4-READ BTWN THE LINES-Just scored in Minnesota

10-REVENGE ROSIE-Tough post; tough team

5-FREE ART-Last was too tough and post hurt

3-REPO MAN-Like that Kyle chose this one

4-JOY IN MUDVILLE-Narrowly lost last despite traffic

1-MY DADDY’S REVENGE-Things should set up perfectly

6-FILLYS REVENGE-Won 18 of 38 starts; speed plus

8-FOX VALLEY KIA-Close 3^rd in an Open

7-THE MAGICAL WOMAN-Great form; red hot connections

2-ILLINI BELLE-Impressive 2^nd in career debut

1-HYPEYOURBESTIEUP-Daylight winner in last; can repeat

7-CHICKABELL-3 wins, 2 seconds in 5 starts

8-FOX VALLEY TESSA-Impeded but still 2^nd in last

2-ILLINI BELLE-Impressive 2^nd in career debut

1-HYPEYOURBESTIEUP-Daylight winner in last; can repeat

7-CHICKABELL-3 wins, 2 seconds in 5 starts

8-FOX VALLEY TESSA-Impeded but still 2^nd in last

9-BROOKE’S OCEAN-Found a much easier spot

4-BABE’S IMAGE-Big chance at big price; barn 3 for 3 so far

2-ADMIT-Usually close but over 60 starts since last win