Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 POINT AT YOU turned in a sneaky good BTL effort in his MSW debut last month at Belterra Park. He showed run in a less than ideal trip from start to finish and ran on late through traffic and getting into the clear too late galloping out in front of the winner with ease. He would be compromised back in at MSW at this level, though Claire smartly places him on this circuit and in $20k maiden claiming company where he can compete. 

Vanden Berg has been very smart about where she is placing her horses this season and #3 LUNA MOTH fits back at CD at the claiming level given protection (and NO_PUSH from Emigh) last month at HAW. 

The race shape should be honest and perhaps more than it appears on paper with that pace the key for #4 MY GOOD FORTUNE to run her race and compete. 

There is a group returning from the Locust Grove (G3) two weeks ago but before discussing them will look at some runners returning to CD that fit this race. #1 BHOMA showed a lot of ability as a juvenile with progressive numbers, surface/distance versatility and overall class. She struggled following that season with just one sophomore start and needed some racing coming back this season. She has started to find her form as of late and returns to the main track here off a BTL effort last month under similar N3X conditions as KD. 

Stall picks this spot to return with #7 ROYAL TAKE CHARGE one that has run some of her better races here at CD. They had considered running in the Locust Grove (G3) though a trainer scratch with intent for this spot.

Stall taking this spot for ROYAL TAKE CHARGE will be interesting if they keep #5 FANNIE AND FREDDIE in this race. She would be asked to wheel back in 13-days for one that has been given much more time between starts. As far as her as an individual she is deserving of a follow as she was very WARM two weeks ago and never able to get into the race (TACTIC-) after a very rough (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break. #4 SOUL OF AN ANGEL was also compromised at the start and from the rail was stuck bottle up SAVED TRAFFIC behind the pacesetters that finished 1-2 including open length winner, Search Results. 

Juvenile #6 TICKTOCK TICKTOCK is due for some racing luck. She has paired up EX - EXCUSE's this season going back to the BTL on 9/17 to suggest she could compete under similar conditions. She lack that opportunity last week with the outside post, ground loss and hidden TROUBLE impacting her overall race. C. Stewart sticks with her today noting he had been on a few in here including morning line favorite, #5 RED CLOVER one that has been competitive here at this level, projects to hold her form and compete in today's field. 

#3 CANT STAY TO LONG ran a "winning" (B) race here on 9/17 and validated that effort with an honest effort against a higher class of competition here last Saturday.

The connections of #8 SENORITA MOUSE come back with a more reasonable placement today - they took their swing against higher this meet and she was overmatched in both starts. 

#9 JOANIE B returns the winner, upset winner of the 9/22 common race. She had the benefit of the trip and loses both her driver and cozy inside draw that played in her favor last week. Rival #1 LION VIRGIN take the rail today and one that needs pace to close into and should find some today. 

#2 ASHLEE'S LIL ANGEL could get overlooked in this field from her running lines and not picking up the BTL effort under similar conditions back on 9/15. 

#5 MAGGIE AT BAT was taken out of her running style last week (9/22) sent to the lead and just tried to last as the "best" in the race. She should return to her preferred off-the-pace style and similar with a drive change, C. Stewart the win driver from 7/7 back in the bike. She will return with #4 ICE DANCE those two in a common race on 9/15 and also a driver change which could signal intent though off the visuals from two weeks ago she must show more and projects to be shorter here given the ML. Some value concerns could also be present on #1 LUCKY DOTTIE as she also returns from the same 9/15 event. 

#3 BIG FLICKA turned in a pair of competitive races this season and projects to hold her form here though will find a major change as she steps up to take on older and intent could be less clear in this spot. 

The class change is significant for #7 FOX ALLEY CAYMAN showing up here and the right spot to get back on track. He projected to move up in a second start of the meet though had a subtle excuse on 9/22 with the trip given both traffic and ground loss.

#3 CAMMILLS MONEY MAN will give up some recency as he makes his first start on this circuit and start in September. As he shows up with those changes the class change is also in play and can move up in this spot based on his 2023 form this season. The recent 8/31 effort was willing as he had a subtle trip and with the race shape led by even money Triv going gate to wire and chased by place with CAMMILLS MONEY MAN moving wide and rallying in a blanket for those deeper minors.

As far as the group returning from Race 5 on 9/22, #6 MAJOR HARLEY has the slight edge and a solid effort once again he was drifting out late; and rivals #4 VINNY LOU and long shot #8 DUM LUK MOOSS was not far off of him and both showing competitive efforts making up ground with wide trips.

#2 BEACH COWBOY was favored under similar conditions back on 9/15 and will have the chance to rebound here after breaking stride around the turn and was not asked after to get back in to the race. The race he returns from was productive with Koa coming back to win the 9/22 common race and M I Rockin was not disgraced by open length winner, Marshall Malone in the Sunday finale. That is noted as this lightly raced type must improve given the more established older runners in this field to win. 

Couple of maidens earned a follow from a common race back on 9/9. #5 AUGUSTA SATIN a more established type was game behind a dominant La Rosa and validated that run coming back to finish second on 9/15 with a very wide trip; #4 TROUBLE SEEKER caught the eye making a legit move on 9/9 and effort that earned a follow and projected to improve off those visuals. #7 IRIDESCENT REMI also out of that common race has benefit from favorable trips and just seems to turn out the same race each time. She showed that again on 9/15 with the top four together at the wire which included #8 TYLER TY. 

#1 ALLEGHENY HANOVER is taking advantage of the condition shipping in to compete in this spot and projects to be a heavy favorite given their current form against today’s group.

#2 DUNCANS RANGER has not shown to be as “fast” this season though has local experience and buried form especially coming back from the 9/22 event (some runners from that race running in R3 earlier on the card) with a BTL effort and competitive race for the level. #9 ARA DASH also returns from that 9/22 race and one that can take a step forward especially as they return with a driver change coming off a less ideal tactics (and wide) last week. 

#4 TELL ME YOU LOVE ships in with the edge over #2 MILLINDASFEAR making their local debut.

Looking at the local group and going back to 9/15 common race: part of that outcome was due to #5 RAGS TO RICHES setting a fast pace early and lacked finish well off the board as the favorite and can rebound here with some intent given the driver change and back numbers that fit on par. #7 COLD ROAD SODA also could step up as she makes her second start of the cycle and with the driver change as Lambright can take back and make one run and should have pace to run at. #1 AMAZON PRINCESS was competitive against that group making a wide move as part of the four horse blanket finish. Today she moves from one extreme to the other coming off the outside draw last week which played a role in her trip unable to overcome the post with an extra-wide trip and subtle BTL all things considered.

Some upside can also be projected with #6 ROCKIN Q with a subtle trip lacking room at a crucial point in running and impacted their finishing position. 

#5 SUNMASTER finds a significant class change coming back from a competitive event last Friday as noted with some other horses from that race running earlier on the card. He can also be upgraded for a different reason as they set a strong pace that caught up with them losing ground late – his overall form should be able to transfer here. #6 PRINCE OF STYLE was given a follow exiting the common race with SUNMASTER on 9/9, a solid race with Marshall Malone coming back to win. He could be overlooked off that effort (a subtle excuse) given the trip and could be some intent here with the driver change.

#7 FOX VALLEY TREASON also shares the common running line from 9/9 and the class change from last week should assist as well as the return to Seekman the driver from 9/15 when recording one of his strong numbers to date.

Returning to this level, #1 PLAYTOROCK was disqualified (controversial imo) as the unofficial winner on 9/22 and overall looked much the best of the group on the day and had buried form from her two races starting off the meet to support that run. She projects to hold her form here as well as #3 CHECKME one that was given an excuse with the trip, excessive ground loss throughout. #8 RESERVED PARKING is below that pair though in form to get a share once again.

The class change is noted for #9 DINGER GRAM making their second start of the meet and in a more reasonable spot for their abilities – overmatched last week though given their first start in more than 30-days looked to be given the race. While improvement can be projected, the morning line does not appear to offer much in price compensation. 

#1 FRANKIEPARK earned a follow off a subtle 9/9 trouble trip and projecting to improve, did just that on 9/17 with the “flow” aided place finish. #7 ERNIE THE MOOSS had a favorable 9/9 trip taking a tough beat and while it might look “on paper” he took a step back; he was compromised with the trip bottled up inside traffic lacking running room.

#5 JIMMY THE DUKE is more obvious with the recent “1” sitting on top if his pp’s and competitive under similar conditions though catches a solid group here and looks his toughest test this season.

14-year-old #4 AL’S HAMMERED was also slightly flow-aided with the race shape slowing late on 9/22, though also looked to need the race and can get back to a top effort with this 2022 local form (and back class) is on par for this race.

#9 DASH AROUND must also find his top form to compete here.  While he finished second last week, he ranged up and just refused to go by the winner – visually a bit different in my opinion to the “fought gamely” he seemed to hang. #10 INCREDIBLE BOMBAY should be the higher of the two coming back from that 9/22 common race and given an “Excuse” on the day as Finn was unable to overcome the draw and compromised trip that followed showing run through the adversity and ground loss. They could have a similar change here and trip (price) is noted. 

#2 SUBSUDIZE will make his second start at the claiming level on this circuit and class wise is in the right place for his abilities. The outside post and 5f distance did him no favors (can sit closer to the pace today) and he still ran a solid race noting the top three together at the wire. 

He will make his first start for Koriner off the Miller claim and Miller will still be represented here by #7 WESTWARD LOOK. He has a look and looks to be some intent returning to the claiming level second off the claim and what looked to be giving him a race protected, wheeling back in two weeks (and wide trip) on 9/10. 

Miller has a chance to sweep the early double with #2 AMERICAN LILY making her belated return here and has run well on this circuit and condition keying off the 1/22 race. 

#5 KRISTI'S TIGER could be her biggest threat and one that projects to improve in this spot. She prefers the ONE_TURN distance and also has buried form at this N1X condition keying off the B+ OptixGRADE on 3/26. 

#2 POTITO was given the TURF? Projection when he made his debut on 7/22 at Del Mar and also a slight flow upgrade as the winner, Mici's Express (now multiple stakes placed) closed from off the pace. POTITO returned on 9/4 and can be given some excuse with a rough start, legit TROUBLE+ and can improve off the 8th place result. Some positive intent could also be in play as debut rider, Rispoli is back aboard. 

As far as the first time starters only have seen #3 BILLY JOE SHAVER and off the visuals looks every bit a TURF horse watching him train on the main track. 

#6 SAHARA SUE comes back for the second start with the right changes from her debut. The overall visuals suggested she needed/given the race on 8/24 and further visuals suggest she can step up off that race with the DROP and added ground (STRETCH) both changes she has going for her here.

#1 NO CAN QUIT is another "double digit" runner that can IMPROVE off her debut showing run making a MOVE through TRAFFIC and overall adversity from the SLOG and TACTIC-. 

#10 NUMERO DIX has been competitive at this level coming back this year for Mullins pair BTL efforts and logical off those races here. he can be tougher to trust with his off-the-pace RunStyle where they will likely take back to save ground from the outside post - at the same time this race dynamic should allow plenty of pace for him to target. 

#8 BEAR MOUNTAIN was fortunate given the trip breaking his maiden MSW with the trip and following that race and layoff the connections placed him overmatched this year in N1X allowance company. The DROP makes sense for this horse and should move up with that change. 

#11 CAPTAIN COOCHIES will find some interesting, even belated changes as OptixNOTES projected TURF and DROP for this horse going back to the races earlier this year and finds those changes today.

#2 SIX MAGPIES will make a belated return and seems a reasonable spot with the subtle class change to compete. The 11/19 event has been hit or miss, there were a couple winners next out and next, next out including One More Bid pulling off the flow-aided Mathis Mile (G2) win. 

The lightly raced sophomores, #10 AUTOLINE did not seem to be asked for his best after the slow start three weeks ago; #5 NO SECRET was no chance after breaking slow/SLOG and tossing his head (TROUBLE_S, GREEN) and returns today with a rider change, blinkers and in for a tag as well as the surface/distance switch; AE #12 BOLTS DESTINY also did not have much chance on debut with the rail draw and the SPACED extreme dynamic against a (high OFR) MSW group on closing weekend at DMR. 

The potential for a nice return in here comes from post draw more than anything. Last out, 8-ROCKIN VIC got stuck inside and was shuffled into the turn before finding room too late to close. I expect he gets into the outer flow a bit earlier in this spot tonight. He may just be one of those horses that doesn't race well when drawn inside, as seen from recent starts. 1-ALLEGHENY HANOVER is going to take the action off the recent races in Indiana. That's a strip that typically plays much more quickly than Hawthorne and this one may be overbet. The likelihood that Dandy's World gets sent after him early with the P-driver may compromise his chances a bit as well. 9-ARA DASH hasn't had great trips in his last couple and will need things to unfold the right way to win from the outside. The best route to go may be to follow Rockin Vic into the lane and see if he can roll on late.

6-TICKTOCK TICKTOCK-Tough if she stays flat

5-RED CLOVER-Just second in similar

9-JOANIE B-$92 winner this level in Haw debut

5-MAGGIE AT BAT-Close this level last couple

1-LUCKY DOTTIE-Trip over the track helps

4-ICE DANCE-Tough trip in local debut

7-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Class drop big help

4-VINNY LOU-Better post; flies late

6-MAJOR HARLEY-2^nd versus similar last 3

2-BEACH COWBOY-Can’t ignore blistering connections

7-IRIDESCENT REMI-In money last four

5-AUGUSTA SATIN-Led most of the way in last

2-XENA’S FOXY-Needed last; big-time improvement

1-ALLEGHENY HANOVER-Indy shipper should be tough

7-FOX VALLEY NEWPORT-Placed 1^st in last; can win for real

2-DUNCAN’S RANGER-Up late for show dough?

2-MILLINDA’S FEAR-Meets somewhat easier

1-AMAZON PRINCESS-Better post big help

4-TELL ME YOU LOVEME-Outgunned and broke in last

4-TELSTAR-Knocking at the door

3-RJ’S DIEGO-Faces easiest yet; first Lasix

3-CHECKME-Had trouble both local starts

5-JIMMY THE DUKE-Does he make in three in a row?

1-FRANKIE PARK-Just missed this type

9-DASH AROUND-Win and a place last 2 times this level