Handicapper Tips & Picks

The R6 9/16 winner #6 LOUS ANDIAMO returns here and looks to get back on track from breaking stride in a higher level race last Sunday. The 9/16 common race (R6) has been productive as both #1 DAISY DUTCHESS (#4 MR RED THUNDER) and #3 BELL BOOTS showing up in this spot improved overall in their respective races last week.

#5 MAPLE GROVE MANGIN was the heavy favorite (though no show jump) in the 9/23 common race and despite finishing well out of the money showed a lot of run making a couple of moves and given a follow with the excuse on the day and preferred of that group. #9 JAMMIN HIGH is on the softer side overall though a good effort as one that looks to be moving forward and could get a share. 

Both #7 KIZZZMELIKEYOUMISSME and #8 BROOKE’S OCEAN return from a competitive common race last week and both deserving of a follow. BROOKE’S OCEAN was shorter odds of the two and with the 5-2 ML assignment. She drifted off that ML and also showed some regression as well as a compromised trip making an early move into a solid pace. In addition, she shares common races holding her own against today’s morning line favorite, #3 LOOK KIMBO.

#6 FILLYS REVENGE put forth a top effort going back to 9/10 in a strong time for the level and might have seem some regression last week. She does appear to be a “need the lead” type and might find some pace pressure and contention here she must deal with. 

#3 FOUND MY ROCK should be overlooked and offers value in this race. She earned a follow with the BTL effort on 9/15 and similar coming back from a subtle trip and overall BTL race again on 9/23 despite the running lines and finishing positions. Her form coming into this race is buried off those trips and looks to have some intent today with the driver change as Kyle Husted takes back over. #5 ADMIT also returning from the 9/23 race and looks more “obvious” with the recent finishing positions though does not hold that much of an edge of the two with #4 BABE’S IMAGE putting in a game closing run though was also flow aided.

#1 DRIVIN THE DIXIE also worth a mention while she is lighter overall compared to her rivals, she is likely to be given a tactical change here and one that should be showing speed right from the start.  That tactical change is noted with #6 GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW shipping in. At HoP last out, she was the dominant front running winner leaving rival #4 HALLEYBIGCOMET chasing for place. She (both) comes into this event in form though overall does not hold much of a class or speed edge.

GOTTALOVEMYSHADOWN might even end up favored or close to it even with #8 MY DADDYS REVENGE in the race. MY DADDYS REVENGE also returns in this spot with solid form though requires her top effort here with the older and open company runners in this field.

#4 RUMBLEINTHEVALLEY was given a look in he 9/23 common race and with the trip and outside post suffered ground loss throughout and all things considered still turned in a game race. Going back to 9/23 a driver change was expected following the 9/17 trip and does return today with a driver change to Killeen.

That change allows Seekman to return to #6 TANKMETODENNYLAND and that is not the only key change as the  much needed class relief from the recent starts is also made and should move up at this level. The change in class is also in play for #3 SNAP KRACKLE NTROT shipping to make a local debut off her solid form this season at Aces that fit on par. 

This is a tough race and many in here have traded places when against each other and looking for some value and if any get overlooked on the board. #7 UNHYNGED ZENZERO could be that runner finding class relief from the event last week and returning to a level where he has been competitive in the past and this season keying off the 9/17 race. #9 BRENDASBLAZINGSTAR from that 9/17 race could be a reach though showed run especially late and held her own against others in this field.

That race was a common race with #1 YANKEES PARTY one of the lightly raced types in this field and to her credit has shown improvement race-to-race. A similar lightly raced with progression is also in play for #5 ILLINI BELLE as she comes back from the distant place finish behind dominant chalk winner, Chickabell last weekend.

#3 FOX VALLEY TATUM is another improving type and while she was slightly outclassed last week her 9/23 effort was game, and a repeat of that effort makes her a player here. #4 REVENGE ROSIE is another that has run some competitive races though not as consistent and noted as she comes back today from the place last Saturday.

Today should be the day for #5 FOX VALLEY YORK one that has been holding his own against some solid rivals picking up checks throughout the year. He has shown improvement in this current cycle and returning from a game effort behind a much the best, Fox Valley Durham on 9/22.

Morning line favorite #8 FOX VALLEY KODIAK turned in a BTL strong effort at this level on 9/17 earning a follow - the competitive effort last week even on the class rise was not unexpected.

#3 CUTTING CLASS looked to be a player in the common race last week and was never given a chance to compete with legit TROUBLE and still showed run given an excuse. #8 SKYWAY GYMMASTER also given a “excuse” with the trip given early trouble trying to establish position from the outside and still made a move to close late in an overall BTL effort in line with the others that finished in-the-money with factors in their favor.

Their trouble as well as “trips” from others further benefit #2 PONDA HAWK as he had the run of the race and smart handling by Husted. #5 SOME NOBODY also had a near “perfect” trip and lacked finish while #6 FOX VALLEY B GUMP came closing late after he was taken back and gave up early position.

#7 BAGMAN projects to be a big number once again and is one that has been moving forward with each start this season and while others come into this race a little more progressive, an improved effort is projected and might be enough to get in the mix. 

#7 ASHLEECOLDMUFFLER was upgraded from a subtle 9/10 trip and benefit from that race and the right placing from the connections on 9/16 rewarding all around with the win. #6 DOWNTOWNLEROYBROWN also looked to benefit from the 9/10 race though did not benefit from the 9/22 placement coming back in a tough spot and overmatched once again. He did to his credit move forward number wise and should hold that form as they make the class drop here.

#1 GOTTA GO GRAM has not had much of a chance here this season by the placement over his head. He was overmatched though showed run in spots before breaking stride on 9/10 and ran on late behind the open length much-the-best Fox Valley Durham on 9/22. Those efforts are right in line with #3 PONDA SPARK as he makes his local debut giving up both experience and recency.

#4 DAY OF LEGENDS Is a legitimate longshot though one that has shown improvement in his two starts this season and another move forward can be projected with the visuals from 9/23. That race was won with a favorable trip by #10 FOX VALLEY CARLOS one that was much more local than his 28-1 odds with the upset though much hold his form and work a trip from the outside again today.

#2 ROCKONBIGSTAR returns with class relief and upgrade with the “drop” projection given on both 9/16 and 9/22. He should find himself more competitive with the class change though overall he is who he is and has not shown much progression this year. Number wise #9 SKYWAY LAZARO must also step up though off his visuals it appears we have not seen his best. 

#5 BARELY FUNCTIONAL could be overlooked in this competitive race with buried form coming back in this spot. He projected to improve with the return to the TURF also racing WIDE X_BIAS in the DMR stakes on 8/4 and again should IMPROVE off the 8/27 TRAFFIC trip and added ground from that 5f race as well. 

#2 IMPACT WARRIOR ran a “winning” race (B OptixGRADE) for this N1X allowance level with the place finish on 7/29 at DMR; and came back with a competitive B- OptixGRADE in the DMR Oaks (G1) just 3 weeks later.

#6 YERWANTHERE was BTL on 8/26 after the SLOG made a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE X_FLOW in that fourth place run and given a look as she wheels back under similar conditions here. Also from that common race #8 GIMME MO BABY and #9 SHOCKING GREY were not as eye catching visually, though noted the TACTIC- for both. 

This race is just so much of an easier spot than what 3-FOX VALLEY TATUM faced last time out in the Incredible Tillie leg. She raced well in that spot, posting a mile that is far better than all but 5-ILLINI BELLE in here. In the end it just  come down to price for which of these horses provides the better value. 1-YANKEES PARTY raced well last out but needs to continue to improve off that effort. She should find a good spot from the inside in here and may be able to pick up the pieces late.

3-BELL BOOTS-Took leg 1 of Dygert

4-MR RED THUNDER-Two big races after lengthy layoff

5-MAPLE GROVE MANCIN-Early break cost him in last

3-LOOK KIMBO-Won this level two races back

1-REAL SLICK CHICK-Rail speed might do it

5-RACIN FOR ROYALTY-Decent form all year

8-MY DADDY’S REVENGE-Dropper should be best of these

5-ADMIT-Tries to break long winless streak

6-GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW-Won last 3 in Minnesota

5-OUR THERAPIST-just won 2023 debut

6-TANKMETODENNYLAND-Been facing tougher rivals awhile

3-SNAP KRACKLE NTROT-Enters the fray late

5-ILLINI BELLE-Blows by them late

7-UNHYNGED ZENZERO-Speed needs to stay flat

1-YANKEES PARTY-Gets close with late burst

8-FOX VALLEY KODIAK-Just missed in leg 1 Incredible Finale

5-FOX VALLEY YORK-Been close lately

4-MY BUDDY STEVE-2nd Lasix; improvement expected

3-CUTTING CLASS-Had ton of trouble as the favorite in last

8-SKYWAY GYMMASTER-Couldn’t recover from early break

2-PONDA HAWK-Just won at this level

7-ASHLEECOLDMUFFLER- Overmatched in last; tough this level

10-FOX VALLEY CARLOS-Outside posts haven’t bothered him much

3-PONDA SPARK-Good chance despite recent missed races

#1 AMERICAL THEOREM could get overlooked in here as he returns from a two month freshening and from the BTL effort in the Bing Crosby (G1) a trip compromised by TROUBLE, ground loss (X_WIDE) and recovered to run on (MOVE) late.  He will be joined by his stablemate #9 SPIRIT OF MAKENA one that has form, recency, and early sprint speed. Going back to the Bing Crosby (G1) SPIRIT OF MAKENA was given an EX – EXCUSE from the SLOG that took him out of his RunStyle and from there suffered a “trip” unable to get into the race. He came back with an improved effort in the Pat O’ Brien (G2) though was again not given the right trip for his style course and distance. If Bravo is assertive today and this one gets to the lead he can be tough there are not many (including the Baffert group) that are true E RunStyle horses at the 6f distance.  

#9 STILLETO BOY looks intended for this race returning to Santa Anita and in this second start of the cycle. There was not much intent from the training, timing, and handling in the Pacific Classic (G1) and since has returned to his GGF base to train and this should be the spot they are looking for the win (and you’re in) and to be more aggressive in trip at a preferred 9f distance. 

Espinoza was unable to work a trip with #2 WAR AT SEA from the draw and caught wide against the DMR turf profile compromising his DMR Mile (G2) race. Going into that race, he had a big look coming off a strong “prep” that he nearly won despite giving up recency and the shorter 5f distance. He should be overlooked in here with the recent running line and 9^th place finish sitting on top off his pp’s.  #7 TWIST also wheels back from the DMR Mile (G2) earning a B OptixGRADE despite his 5^th place finish noting it was a blanket for place behind Du Jour, ground saving and expertly handled by Prat.

#3 HIT THE ROAD probably should have won this race back in 2021, as he was probably the “best” on the day and Geroux costing him a better position with the trip. Since that race, HIT THE ROAD has struggled both to get the win and himself with the excessive layoff lines. This will be the first time in a long time he has been able to string races together; and also in this cycle has a better draw today without the post extreme to overcome.

The two D’Amato trained runners #4 HONG KONG HARRY and #8 CATHKIN PEAK are fine, capable, but likely to be short in this race without much edge over the others.