« 09/30/2023 | 10/02/2023 » |
Sun October 1st, 2023 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
#2 LUCK ON THE BEACH returns from a BTL effort against a
slightly higher level last week, the type of effort to have them competitive
here. #5 MR. NUTTIN NICE benefit from the race flow moving up on 9/17 and pace
could be similar to sit the trip here. #8 PADDY MURPHY also fits with the race
shape as well as his current form shipping in. #9 MILLENNIAL did not offer
value as the favorite last Sunday though should present a higher number in this
race coming off that 4th place result showing run with a wide move.
Hawthorne Race 2
#4 VELOCITY MCSWEETS caught a race shape with minimal
change in running order and showed interest and progress late. She brings in
form that is tougher to see on paper though a class change that is. #2 AMANDA
BOMBAE required the race starting on 9/9 and came back last weekend showing run
in a compromised trip and given an excuse as a result. Part of the issues were
due to driver tactics and returns here with a change. #7 MARTHA MAX unloaded a
strong close in the 9/17 common race with #5 SILVERSHOW CHIXY also finds class
relief and some interest to take a step forward in the second start of the meet.
Hawthorne Race 3
#7 STRESSFUL finds class relief shipping in for this
race and moves up with her current form in this field. She also could improve
in this current cycle with an every-other pattern, efforts that stack up
strongly here.
#1 EL CHAMPEE’ON was given his class test on 9/24 taking on
a full competitive field, a change from his two prior starts. He responded to
the ask, showing run and tactical speed and overall competitive race and good
fitness as he continued to run on after the wire. His effort was more
effective in the outcome than #3 FOX VALLEY NAUTICA one that finished well off
the board as a 98-1 longshot though visually showed some run and interest in
that trip to suggest he is moving forward in this form cycle.
Hawthorne Race 4
#5 CLEARCHOICE DE VIE is a flow upgrade as he was part of a
fast early pace on 9/17 with the race slowing late and losing ground in the
process. He fits in this field and a contender with a top effort. #9 FOX VALLEY
CARLIN turned in a wide closing run and “winning” type effort/B for the level
back on 9/17. He was not as effective on the class rise last weekend though should
be able to cycle back to a top effort in here and at the level where he fits. Ground
loss seemed to play a role in #8 TREY ROCKETTE coming up short as the favorite
on 9/12 at Aces. He was parked wide throughout and forced to make an early wide
move with the race starting to slow late and the top two in a photo for the win.
#7 MAXIMUS catches a slightly tougher field than back on 9/16
when he came up short as the favorite. Overall he brings upside when given an
excuse as the favorite that day and overall BTL effort in the 4th
place result.
Rivals from the 9/26 HoP race will return here with #2 FOX
VALLEY CRETE flattening out late behind the pacesetting winner and had just
enough to hold for place with #1 JULERICA one paced finishing with the bulk of
the field right behind CRETE in a blanket for deeper minors.
Hawthorne Race 5
#5 FEELING IT fits on this circuit and level with form from
some rivals on this circuit including #9 DRINKING AND DREAM a perfect trip
winner under similar conditions on opening day.
Longshots: #7 HERMIA’S STAR showed a lot of more run than
the line suggests given the handling and overall visuals that suggested “prep” on
9/17. #8 PARADISE TOMORROW must step up
against those two that have an edge in this spot though finds some class
relief, the right change from the 9/23 race against a tougher class of horse.
Hawthorne Race 6
This is a competitive race and condition won last weekend by
#5 PLAY ME ROCK one that fits right back in this spot and against some common
rivals. One of those rivals #7 HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY also returns here and was favored
in the event. He should benefit from that start and while he was favored he was
driven very aggressively early on, and the fast pace did him no favors playing
a role as he was slowing late and should be much fitter today.
#3 TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER also looked to be using the 9/23 Qualifier
for fitness as they went to the lead and for a runner that can race forward
though tends to be more effective with a stalk-and-pounce run, the trip they
look to get back to today especially with HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY in the field and
confirmed front runner.
Hawthorne Race 7
#6 INCREDIBLE LOREAN earned a follow off a sneaky effort
here on 9/9/ She was taken off the pace early and showed run in a BTL effort
making a move through traffic and overall was unable to show her best on the
day. A driver change is made as Wilfong takes over and slight class change as
well to suggest some intent.
#7 FOX VALLEY BUSTIER is another that has shown some buried
form this season. Going back to 9/15 she made a wide move and again parked wide
against a tougher group on 9/23. The 9/15 event was a common race with her
stablemate #8 ROCKNROLL DAKOTA and overall there was not much between then on
that day with the expected price discrepancy.
#4 CUPID’S REVENGE showed run against a higher class on 9/10
and similar last weekend with both of those efforts on par for today’s event. #1
SOMESTARSANDI has progressed with each start this season and returns to a level
where she has been competitive in the past. She was under similar conditions
back on 9/16 with a wide move in a race where the top two finished together and
clear. #3 FOX VALLEY REEVA also looks to improve back under similar conditions
from 9/17 showing run against the race dynamic playing a role in the 4th
place finish.
Hawthorne Race 8
#4 ILLINI JETSET was not on the level for the competition on
9/22 though showed interest with a wide move – the type of effort that should
translate competitively here. #3 LUCKONURSIDE was given a follow from the 9/17
BTL effort and came back with another game effort last Sunday (a little scared)
between horses for place and continued to go out past the wire. #6 BROOKLETS BANNER
could still be a start away as he makes his first start of the season and
coming off the qualifier two weeks ago. His back class makes him a player and
early speed should make his presence known early and things tough on some
others with a similar run style in this field.
Hawthorne Race 9
#3 UNHYNGED SPEED has been able to gain fitness this season
and conditioning in races where he was overmatched against the competition. He should
be able to build off those starts and at a level here he can compete and should
offer value as well.
#8 CAVIART RICHMOND was as competitive as any of the horses in
this field and at this level here this season. He could get dismissed with the
driver change and off the running lines. #7 M I ROCKIN, a dominant 9/15 winner
though number wise has yet to run as “fast” as some of today’s rivals. There is
some projection as he can step forward as a lightly raced sophomore that does
appear to hold upside. Casey Leonard remains with #1 FARMERS ONLY has been fine
this season though without any real excuse coming up shorter on the win end and
is one that tends to find public attention.
Hawthorne Race 10
A lot of newer faces making their local debut for
the season. #9 BIG CHRISTIAN is the highest earner this season and one that
looks well intended for this spot and looking to get back on track and back to
a top effort.
Hawthorne Race 11
#7 GOOMSTER is tough to knock as the favorite, a
consistent type that has been holding his form and competitive races this
season; and no disgrace chasing a strong, much the best Niko Man last week.
#4 AUNT PERCILLA came in with a form edge on 9/9 and a
credible race (B) making a wide move returning on 9/17. Going back to that 9.9
race, #10 BLUE DEVIL was given an excuse and one he rebounded from to turn the
tables with a dominant win on 9/17 making him a player back at this level once
again.
Timing was off for #3 SWAN OF DREAMS last week and one that
looks to rebound here and based on the morning line projects to be higher than
the 3-1 odds on 9/24 and in the face of
some common rivals from that event showing back up here.
Hawthorne Race 12
#2 CALIBER appears the horse to beat. He comes back with a
driver change off a less than ideal trip last Sunday and still has been able to
maintain his form and figures – both strong in contrast to today’s group.
#6 FOX VALLEY OZZY lacked room late and finished with a
strong close on 9/17 and validated that effort on 9/24, a common race and
competitive given the wide trip.
Current form is also tough to knock on #1 FOX VALLEY PATRIOT
though does find a subtle change as he takes on older here and for the most
part has been in against three-year-old company.
#2 RUSH TO JUDGEMENT had a class edge and showed it on the
track with the 9/17 win. They took last week off and in this spot with some
confidence given the rise in class.
Hawthorne Race 13
#3 THE MAGICAL WOMAN is upgraded from her races this meet
and in this spot. She had a look returning from a solid 9/10 effort on 9/23 and
caught a solid group and compromised by the pace against the dynamic early. #5
RONA MAE can also be upgraded from a different 9/24 race though a similar
hurdle against the race flow and still game for place. She has a common running
line with THE MAGICAL WOMAN going back to 7/20 at Spr.
#6 IDEAL’S NICOLE benefit from everything in her favor on
9/17 and noted as she returns with others from that event here.
Sun October 1st, 2023 |
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Jim's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
Hawthorne Race 2
Hawthorne Race 3
Hawthorne Race 4
Hawthorne Race 5
Tough spot as the two-year-olds take to the track. A mix of horses coming from other racetracks, fairs, etc. 1-READ BTWN THE LIES has the race over this Hawthorne strip and it was an easy win last out. With the inside draw here there is no reason to think she won't be able to repeat that performance. 5-2 is highly unlikely as she looks to go off much closer to even money. 9 DRINKING AND DREAM also has a win over the track but will have to overcome the outside draw in here. With a lot of unknowns amongst these juvenile pacers, the best route for her may be to look to leave for a early position and look to avoid traffic. 3-ROCKIN LEGAL can't be dismissed while at a possible big price. She likely needed her last as she was coming off a short rest but raced well during the summer and looks to have some potential.
Hawthorne Race 6
Hawthorne Race 7
Hawthorne Race 8
Hawthorne Race 9
Hawthorne Race 10
Hawthorne Race 11
Hawthorne Race 12
Hawthorne Race 13
Sun October 1st, 2023 |
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Ron's Picks
Hawthorne Race 1
3-NOT ME GRAM-Tough despite missed start
2-LUCK ON THE BEACH-Better chance in easier company
9-MILLENNIAL-Beaten lukewarm fav had tough trip
Hawthorne Race 2
4-VELOCITY MCSWEETS-Meets easiest in quite a while
7-MARTHA MAX-Overdue dropper
5-SILVERSHOE CHIXY-Expected better in last; drops
Hawthorne Race 3
1-EL CHAMPEE’ONN-Seems better than the rest so far
7-STRESSFUL-In money half her Minnesota races
5-MR ATHENS-Just because
Hawthorne Race 4
5-CLEARCHOICE DE VIE-Possibly leads throughout with drop
9-FOX VALLEY CARLIN-Narrowly lost 2 races back at this level
2-FOX VALLEY CRETE-Just missed as favorite at Hoosier
Hawthorne Race 5
1-READ BTWN THE LIES-Dominant winner in Hawthorne debut
5-FEELIN IT-Faced better at Hoosier
9-DRINKING AND DREAM-Won here early September
Hawthorne Race 6
5-PLAY ME ROCK-Got up late versus these in last
7-HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY-Ran out of gas in last; can make amends
4-MAC’S MARVEL-Great form all year versus similar
Hawthorne Race 7
1-SOMESTARSANDI-Competitive last 2 months; meets older
5-DELIGHTFUL DONNA-likely tries for the lead
4-CUPID’S REVENGE-Meets somewhat easier
Hawthorne Race 8
4-ILLINI JETSET-First Lasix might do the trick
6-BROOKLET’S BANNER-Off since Dec but qualifier says
ready
8-MARSHALL MALONE-Steps up after winning last two
Hawthorne Race 9
2-AMERICAN CRUISER-Drops to make local debut
7-M I ROCKIN-Might finish fastest of all
3-UNHYNGED SPEED-Finds softer company in this spot
Hawthorne Race 10
10-TALK ABOUT VALOR-Winning machine but toughest task yet
3-PERLUCKY-looks like a front-end threat
9-BIG CHRISTIAN-Good form vs. good trotters in Indiana
Hawthorne Race 11
7-GOOMSTER-Won 8 of 11 this year; 2nd in the
rest
4-AUNT PERCILLA-2nd at level despite early
break
6-LA LOLITA-2ND Lasix; front end threat
Hawthorne Race 12
1-FOX VALLEY PATRIOT-Can extend his streak to three
3-CALIBER-Maybe drops into a winning spot
6-FOX VALLEY OZZY-Usually in the hunt
Hawthorne Race 13
2-SKEETER MACHINE-Says try to catch me
3-THE MAGICAL WOMAN-In money 8 of 9; won 4
8-DANDY’S MNM-Last was too tough; price shot