Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 RAGS TO RICHES will look to turn the tables on #1 AMAZON PRINCESS, the dominant (B+) winner of the common race last week. Going back to the September 29^th race, AMAZON PRINCESS was able to track in a perfect trip, meanwhile RAGS TO RICHES was taken back early and showed run in a trip compromised, competitive BTL effort.  

Fellow three-year-old #3 TELL ME YOU LOVEME has recorded some of the higher figures this season and returning to those efforts makes her the horse to beat. She also returns from the 9/29 common race making a strong close and in form as she returns here. #7 COLD ROAD SODA turned in a similar off the pace trip, a strong close move behind AMAZON PRINCESS. 

#2 FOX VALLEY LANDEN set a solid pace that caught up to him late getting collared as the favorite on 9/22 and looks to contend right back in this spot. #6 FOX VALLEY CAYMAN was upgraded from 9/22 given a complete excuse on the day and regained some confidence returning to win in a softer spot last Friday, 9/29. #4 KAGE DANIEL could fly under the radar returning from that 9/22 common race and subtle trip showing run – the “slow start” was due to Franco taking back early and made a wide move. 

#5 IMPERIAL HANOVER comes into this even with solid form and maturity on his side as one the four-year-old runners in the field. He was compromised with the outside draw and ground loss on 9/22 though still returned in an honest account especially late making a late charge. #8 RESERVED PARKING also returns from that 9/22 common race and his trip was more subtle and validated that slight trip with an improved run and strong late move on 9/29.

As far as the juveniles: #2 APRIL’S BIG GUY had to deal with the outside post on 9/23 and inside traffic here last week (9/30) playing a role in the 6^th place result – also worth noting the top two finished clear of the rest. That group for the minors included #3 FOX VALLEY BRUIN a lightly raced type though again taking on older. 

#8 TIME TO RYDE comes back today against older, a change from the restricted two-year-old condition last week. Her effort was massive, and showed a lot more run that perhaps the running line and finishing position suggests. She earned a big follow off the race and even with the age hurdle, cannot be discounted. Another lightly raced juvenile, #3 FOX VALLEY NOVA has enough ability to show up with today’s group, though also her work cut out for her giving up experience, recency and taking on older.

#4 STAR OF NOB HILL could hold an edge bringing in her current form, form that stack up against the more established types in this race. #1 AUGUSTA SATIN is tougher to trust given her overall effort and tends to run the same race each time and projects similar again today. Rival #5 XENA’S FOXIE was right in line with AUGUSTA SATIN last week and of the two carries more upside lightly raced, showing progression race-to-race.

#2 RG’S TRACER caught the dominant front running open length winner, Legal Liar on 9/15 showing run behind that rival and was favored off that race here on 9/22. The 9/22 race shape was showing late and overall competitive group on the day and can see him back on track here.

#9 SILVERSTONE was upgraded from the 9/17 effort setting a solid pace and could see a similar tactic her looking for Bates to take them as far as they can on the lead.

#7 FOX VALLEY TREASON also falls into that “logical” category. He races himself into shape at the higher conditions and turned in a competitive run making up ground strongly late behind perfect trip, Playtorock last Saturday, 9/29.#3 JIMMY THE DUKE has been solid here all season long fits right back in at this level and holds a slight edge over common rivals, #1 ERNIE THE MOOSS and #10 DASH AROUND.

#4 JET AIRLINER is tough to make a strong case for as the older gelding is still looking for that first win of the season, though improvement from the 9/29 effort is expected and could get into the mix at a price. #5 YANKEE BOUNTY comes in with a similar record over the past could of seasons though has shown some progress in this current cycle. 

Tough race to get creative in and from a value standpoint, #7 GHOST SHARK could drift higher than the two main rivals, #4 FOX VALLEY JASPER and #6 ILLINI JETSET. 

The race shape could set up for #5 FOX VALLEY JULIAN to turn the tables on #2 GORGEOUS BIG GUY coming back from the 9/22 common race. There should be more pace for JULIAN here and one that does not have to make his run from as far back as he did that day to compete. Looking to get creative and going back to that 9/15 common race; #9 FREEDOM’S PLAYBOY was given an excuse with the trip and overall visuals suggest he has more to show and likely to be dismissed with that running line sitting on top off his pp’s. FREEDOM’S PLAYBOY has form against GORGEOUS BIG GUY going back to 9/10 with a strong “B” effort that day and against others back in this event.

#9 AIN’T NO MOJO had a look under similar conditions when entered on 9/17 though unable to compete (sick) that day. He looked to be “given” the 9/24 race not asked just allowed to stretch his legs and get the start against a higher class. Intent looks in play with that placement earlier this season, the race under their belt and change to C. Stewart. 

The timing and trip did #6 GUITAR MAN no favors and a role in the place finish as the heavy favorite. #1 YOU NEVER CAN TELL might offer the value over #4 JR STRIKE THREE the two exiting common races this season and JR coming off the 9/22 win, a blanket finish with the top four together at the wire, including #7 FOX VALLEY KODIAK.

#8 FOX VALLEY DURHAM showed dominant early speed setting a strong pace and controlling gate to wire on 9/22. With that said, that race did not look to be as strong as Race 1, the common race for many of his main rivals. 

Try to get creative here with #7 FOX VALLEY MCKEE coming back from the visuals where he was not given a chance to show his best on 10/1. His starts from earlier this season stack up on par and in the mix with today’s rivals. One of those rivals, #9 TELSTAR picks up a driver change to C. Stewart and his overall form has held up this meet.

#6 CAMMILLS MONEY MAN was given consideration on 9/29 though off the in-running visuals, looked to need a local start and with that under their belt a move forward is projected and similar with potential intent given a driver change. #4 WESTWIND IDEAL comes in with current form and what looks to be a positive change in class coming back from a higher conditioned event last Friday, 9/29. 

#2 KEY INGREDIANT earned a follow from back on opening day and off that race was favored here on 9/15. Some excuses can be made for coming up off the board in that role, though must return with a top effort today and has not raced since. #1 ISLE COACH should be able to move up off his races this season with the drop this afternoon, though like KEY INGREDIANT gives up recency (value concern) without a start since 9/15.

#3 LION VIRGIN has not quite shown up with that “winning” race for the level this season, though has held her form and should translate again in this spot. She has some common running lines with others in this field including #6 RED CLOVER coming back from the 9/29 common race and ground saving place finish. The winner of that race, #9 ROCKIN FAYE benefit from Lambright making all the right moves and timing, a test here with the outer draw.

As far as some other recent winner, #2 ALWAYS GOT POWER had a slight setup on 9/29 and #8 JOANIE B had a similar trip from 9/22 with her upset victory. 

#1 ICE DANCE and #5 LUCKY DOTTIE going back in their form have turned in efforts that make them contenders, however this season, they have not shown those races and their current form has just been average.

#5 HAPPY HAPPY returns fresh and from a BTL effort when in against open $40kOC company back in July at DMR. That effort is not a standalone and supported by competitive efforts in MSW company, much more competitive with numbers on par for this race and with the others in the field. 

#2 SAND TO SEA comes into this event as the horse to beat with solid efforts and higher figures in her two starts, though there are some lightly raced types that can project upside and should be under the radar. #5 TAKE CARAMIE shows up for a second start and given a follow from her debut last month at DMR. She took slight contact at the start and showed run bottled up in traffic and when getting into the clear late. #8 SARANDE was compromised by a legit stumble at the start when she made her debut last summer and further compromised by the subtle trip in her second start (X_FLOW, SHORTER) before the wide trip last November that was followed up by the long layoff. She has some of the "slower" figures, but given the noted excuses and those efforts recorded as a juvenile, a case to be made we have not seen the best of her. 

#7 LEN'S LUCK has not always had the "luck" part of his name with "trips" and the layoffs throughout his career and playing a role in still looking for that initial win. With each race he has shown run competitive even with adversity such as the layoff return in early July, coming back 19-days later with a BTL show finish and wheeling back once again on August 11th showing a strong MOVE, X_FLOW and visuals to IMPROVE off of. 

This allowance event will be the return for #5 PRACTICAL MOVE, his first start since the SA Derby (G1) and scratching from the KY Derby (G1) in the days leading up to the race. While he might just be the "best" horse in the race, he will be tested to prove that in this field and coming off the layoff. The layoff is also in play for #4 NEWGRANGE and while he is another that must prove his San Pasqual (G2) setup stakes win was no fluke, his presence in this race can create a more contentious early pace. Of the two and of the pacesetters PRACTICAL MOVE (Large Q1 Square) has the edge, the higher 72 SpeedRate is noted as a factor for him to overcome. 

Rivals #6 TRIPOLI (looking to rebound from a disappointing Pac Classic (G1) effort) and #7 DIVINE ARMOR might not be the "best" horses in the race, though there is that pace scenario that can assist their RunStyle (Q2/4 Square) to sit the trip. 

Heading into the finale a couple of lightly raced fillies with "trips" this season could step up off their initial starts: #5 PERSIA made a positive physical appearance and one that can handle added ground (STRETCH) though as far as the race, she had a legit EX - EXCUSE from SLOG start to TRAFFIC TROUBLE finish was unable to show run bottled up inside; #9 SHE IS ROMANTIC caught the eye in the morning leading up to her debut and showed run recording a BTL OptixNOTE and IMPROVE Projection - that race is the key as she returns to the turf today; #11 WILLA T could be part of a live group for Yakteen and a little more obvious off a competitive debut and one of a few (preferred over stablemate #4 BLUE OASIS) with surface/distance experience. 

Very competitive race here with 5-6 in with a shot to win. 7-FOX VALLEY TREASON closed well late in his last and may benefit from the outside draw as he'll be forced to sit back early and make that move again. The pace upfront should be honest so let's see if he is in with the upset shot. 9-SILVERSTONE returns to Hawthorne after a trip to Hoosier last out. He has some tactical speed and may look to leave for a spot early to avoid have to work too hard the final quarter of the race. 5-YANKEE BOUNTY looks for career win 41 in start 192 as he still have some giddyup in him. He should be able to rate mid-pack early and make up ground in the lane.

10-LYONS MIKI-Good form might overcome outside post

2-AMAZON PRINCESS-Had trip all 3 Hawthorne starts

1-RAGS TO RICHES-Driver been red hot

2-FOX VALLEY LANDEN-Back on the winning track

3-FOX VALLEY PATRIOT-Dominated his Leg 1 of the Carey

6-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Very good at times; just crushed

4-IMPERIAL HANOVER-First Lasix might do the trick

1-MUCHO DIAMONTE-Tough if he stays flat

2-FOX VALLEY BRUIN-Likely improves off debut race

3-FOX VALLEY NOVA-Earns Team Leonard first win

1-AUGUSTA SATIN-Tries to lead throughout

5-XENA’S FOXIE-Just missed; finishes fast

9-ROCKIN ARLENE-Had a couple good Springfield races

3-JIMMY THE DUKE-Will try to take them late

9-SILVERSTONE-Maybe fastest but post could hurt

8-AL’S HAMMERED-3^rd start of year; Leonard back as pilot

4-FOX VALLEY JASPER-Good all along; 2^nd in Leg 1

6-ILLINI JETSET-Just missed in tougher; 2^nd Lasix tonight

5-FOX VALLEY STEELER-Speedy; can surprise

2-GORGEOUS BIG GUY-Can get the right trip again

5-FOX VALLEY JULIEN-Was too far back in last; can make amends

8-FOX VALLEY YORK-Been close most every time

2-LULING CITY-Appreciate that early speed

9-AINT NO MOJO-Tough post but easier company

8-MR RED THUNDER-Price shot can share

6-GUITAR MAN-Might grab lead and stay there

8-FOX VALLEY DURHAM-Wired last 2; can do it again

4-JR’S STRIKE THREE-Gets perfect pace scenario; flies late

6-CAMMILS MONEY MAN-Meets easier with 2^nd Lasix

9-TELSTAR-Dull in last; bounces back

2-KEY INGREDIANT-Shows more sustained speed tonight

1-ICE DANCE-Finds room tonight

6-RED CLOVER-Right there last three this level

8-JOANIE B-Surprised this level in her last race

7-GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW-Needed last over mile track

8-ADMIT-Years since last win but gets close

10-DUNE DAME-Better than last effort

RACE 7 - PHOENIX (G2): This is the type of race from top to bottom where a case can be made for all in the field and capable on their best day. That comes into play with the more "obvious" types coming off recent wins or in-the-money finishes as well as the runners returning today off longer layoffs when assessing the field looking for the horses that can be sitting on their "best day" part of their form cycle. Pace is key here as well as there is no true "E" need the lead type and tactical/positional speed looks to be necessary.

#3 SIBELIUS fits those factors as a horse with some recency, tactical speed and given the recent finishing positions and the connections (public fancied the names they are more familiar and comfortable with) should hold the double digit morning line odds. He is also a true 6f horse where he has done his better running and given some upgraded from the races since returning from Dubai. He was giving up recency catching a solid group in the Aristides at Churchill in June, a stronger group that included Gunite near miss away from pairing G1 wins. SIBELIUS took the trip across the country and caught another solid field in the Bing Crosby (G1) where he was caught WIDE chasing a solid pace. He should be handled more assertively today with Saez taking over and using his early speed something that was to his detriment in this event last year finishing fourth while trying to rate though a WIDE trip. 

RACE 8 - Jessamine (G2): #5 TOUPIE showed a lot of talent on debut after making contact with the gate rushed up into a duel, staying on as the "BOS" going clear from that rival and the others in the field strongly to the wire and under a strong hand ride - rider showing not going to the stick. She was brought back after a two month freshening to the turf and stakes company last month at Colonial turning in a solid effort off the bench and clear place behind the pacesetting 1-5 chalk winner, No Nay Mets. That stakes race has held form with four horses running back and three of those next out winners. As far as intent, the turf sprint race was likely a starting point for TOUPIE coming back in this later part of the season and perhaps  this stakes race in particular as the intended goal stretching her out and looking to earn black-type. She is listed at the 20-1 on the ML, something that would be severe overlay and especially with Prat aboard for Motion is unlikely to be anywhere near that number.