Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 FREE ART is logical as the favorite in this race returning under similar conditions to the 9/23 event and retaining C. Stewart. #5 CATATONIC IGUANA should be in the right spot to compete for the first time this meet. Husted will send out a pair with Kyle shifting to #6 DOCTOR CRUISE, a sign of intent. 

Analysis goes through the group returning from the 9/24 common race: #3 GRACEFUL HORIZON was favored shipping in and appeared to have a slight excuse (tire) however visually all around must step up and find a way back to a top effort. #5 ROCK IT OUT was able to inherit a “lone” lead while #4 TELL THE DREAM was caught wide early and unable to get a trip from there showing run all around and finds a better draw today – upgraded from that pair. 

This race presents value if as the morning line suggests, #2 PONDA HAWK is favored as a runner that does not hold an edge in this and coming back from the recent taxing efforts. Looking at alternatives: #1 MAXIMUS caught a solid group for the level on 10/1 and finds similar conditions here to the 9/16 event, one where he was favored and given an excuse, a BTL and a follow. #6 CUTTING CLASS will make his first start off the claim and looking for the first clean trip this season as well. He had legit excuse behind PONDA HAWK on 9/24 and coming back from a strangely run 9/30 race with the top two that tight photo/DH. 

#8 FOX VALLEY TARAN was forced to rate amongst other issues last week, though the change in tactics had her off her game and should be back to her preferred forwardly placed ways here. #7 AMY MOOSS given an excuse with the trip on 9/23 has been competitive throughout and can compete with today’s field. With that said, trip can come into play and must be considered though there should again be plenty of price compensation. #6 KARATOP MOOSS has a longshot look. She turned in an honest effort on 9/10, the start of the meet with some subtle trips that followed and picks up a change in connections (trainer/driver) for this start. 

#5 READ BTWN THE LIES is just eligible for this condition and has that earning edge (as well as speed) over the others in the field. She could just be too tough for this group and another check today would see her out of this condition going forward. #1 DELIGHT MOON should be sitting on a top effort and another that has strong earnings overall. Class wise she has not been placed properly for her abilities and the change today has her back at the right level and in form to compete against today’s group. #8 MINNESOTA MIDDLE finds a slight change coming back from the 10/1 showing more run than the line suggests making a wide move; and going back to 9/23 showed run as well with BTL visuals in the show finish. #9 MATTIE SHARK also has shown some run at times this season including the 9/9 effort that puts her in the mix.

#2 THE MAGICAL WOMAN turned in a competitive effort under similar conditions racing against the dynamic on 9/23 before coming back with a complete excuse on 10/1 that at the least cost her a better finishing position if not the win. She fits as a contender along with #8 MY DADDY REVENGE, a filly that has been consists al season and competitive under similar conditions though must work a trip from the outside once again and in tougher company than the group last week. #5 SOUTH GATE SALLY will return fresh from a BTL effort back on 9/23 finishing in a blanket for the minors that included #6 SOME DANCING STAR and should offer the value of the two looking for some separation from the pair. 

#7 FOX VALLEY SADIE was dominant in her local debut on 9/10 and fresh on 9/23 had a favorable trip that did not require a top effort to win. As far as #1 HYPEYOURBESTIEUP she also had the 9/10 win, a more favorable trip and has not raced since.

Trip and tactics did #8 FOX VALLEY TESSA no favors on 9/23 and can improve off that race as she is looking to compete here with a top effort. #4 BRENDASBLAZINGSTAR is not the most obvious returning here from the 9/30 common race, though is one that was not given her best chance to compete, and her top effort is not far off others in here to get a share. 

#7 SOUTHWIND MOLLY looks to compete this afternoon as she makes her second local start this season. Going back to 9/24 she was not asked for her best and still recorded an effort that fits (stronger) as a contender.

Morning line favorite #1 IDEAL’S NICOLE does not hold any edge in this race to justify that role as the favorite and if she is favored that can create value on others. That includes the mare to her outside, #2 SILVERSHOE CHIXY as she returns with a driver change and from a subtle trip as he was caught wide early and lacked room in the stretch. #3 BOOTSY BOMBAY also returns from that 10/1 common race and another with a driver change from a less than ideal drive and also given recency with that start last week. Overall she is softer than her two inside rivals though has back numbers on her best day that are not far off. 

#4 BIG FLICKA could be flying under the radar given the recent running lines and finishing positions. She turned in a BTL effort in the 9/23 common race and was not intended for her best last week, the 9/29 race in against older just doing enough to keep fitness. #7 TICKTOCK TICKTOCK also found herself against older last week (9/29) and turned in a competitive race all things considered. #6 FOX VALLEY TASHA recorded a BTL effort opening week (9/10) before she gave up recency going into the 9/23 race - a good effort behind front running, near setup winner, #1 SLEEZY SISTER. 

#3 FOX VALLEY LEAH showed her class with a dominant win back on 9/10 and won right back making a well-timed wide move by C. Stewart. #4 FILLYS REVENGE should rebound to a top effort today and has form against FOX VALLEY LEAH going back to the opening week common race. Based on the morning line, FILLYS REVENGE should offer value over #7 FOX VALLEY KIA.

Going back to 9/10 #5 PD’S SHOWTIME went on the “horses to watch” list with the sneaky, massive effort dealing with significant trouble and turned in a strong closing run. She has not been seen since and since that race has found a barn change and will also pick up T. Warren. Overall she brings upside and has been competitive against FOX VALLEY LEAH those two battling all season and finished together back in June at Oak Grove. 

#7 STICK WITH CRAMER holds back numbers from earlier this season that makes him very competitive at this level and consistent in those efforts. He could be overlooked from the 9/24 effort when drawn outside and was shuffled back early on giving up significant position, his chance to compete on the day and showed interest after the trouble showing more run than the line suggests.

#4 HIDDEN ASSASSIN was favored back on 9/17 and compromised by the extra-wide trip in that role settling for place. He came back last week and against with early ground loss was compromised and showed more run than perhaps the line suggests and can improve. The effort on 9/17 was validated last week when #2 CLEARCHOICE DE VIE came back to win. The win from CLEARCHOICE DE VIE was visually just as good as place finisher, #6 JULERICA as she comes back today and should offer value of the two and can present a move forward today.

#8 MISTER HAT could outrun his morning line odds coming back from a BTL effort and subtle excuse in the 10/1 common race. He earned a follow off the trip and visuals though the 11-year-old gelding will have to find his top effort for the top spot though not out of the mix. 

#10 TOWN GOSSIP could be just too much for this group as he finds class relief in this third start of the cycle shipping in for the connections. He has been a little unlucky with the outside draw in this cycle, though the fitness and class change could be the equalizer today.

#1 ROCK JAGGER moves the post extreme from outside in as he comes back from a BTL effort, a “winning” type effort on 10/1 that was right in line with #9 M I ROCKIN; and ROCK JAGGER can improve off that place finish and figure as well giving the preference of the pair coming back in this event.  

As far as some of the other “new faces” making a local, seasonal debut, #4 SONIC FLARE is preferred as an individual though has the hurdle giving up slight recency following the scratch last Friday at HoP. 

2-PONDA SPARK-Sharp winner in Haw debut

3-FREE ART-Leading driver chose him over top pick; same connections

1-REPO MAN-Lightly raced; expected to improve

3-GRACEFUL HORIZON-Flat tire in 1^st local start

5-ROCK IT OUT-Good chance to lead throughout

1-MARTHA MAX-Has dead aim late

2-PONDA HAWK-Won last 2; can extend streak

3-SETONCRUISECONTROL-Needed last on this mile track

1-MAXIMUS-Beaten favorite 2 back this level

2-FOX VALLEY GINA-2^nd be a head to tough winner in Leg 1

8-FOX VALLEY TARAN-Beaten fav in leg 1 had tons of trouble

1-FIRST OF HER NAME-Been sharp last two

5-READ BTWN THE LINES-Dominant last three

2-REVENGE ROSIE-Somewhat competitive lately

10-SHESATRACKSTAR- Qualifier showed promise

8-MY DADDYS REVENGE-Won 3 of last four; 6 of 11 this year

2-THE MAGICAL WOMAN-Chance but finished behind Revenge last 3 times

6-SOME DANCING STAR-Big chance for show dough

7-FOX VALLEY SADIE-Rides 3-race win streak

1-HYPEYOURBESTIEUP-Tough but missed start might hurt

3-ILLINI BELLE-We haven’t seen the best of her yet

7-SOUTHWIND MOLLY-Faces easiest field in a long time

1-IDEAL’S NICOLE-The drop should help

2-SILVERSHOE CHIXY-Traffic trouble cost her in last

9-CHICKABELL-tough post but up to the challenge

1-SLEAZY SISTER-Won 4 of 5; narrowly lost the other

7-TICKTOCK TICKTOCK-Can’t ignore red-hot connections

3-FOX VALLEY LEAH-Winning machine; 8 for 9 this year

7-FOX VALLEY KIA-Won last but couldn’t catch Leah previously

1-RONA MAE-Rail speed might share

4-HIDDEN ASSASSIN-Better post; more competitive

2-CLEARCHOICE DE VIE-Quickly grabs the lead; might stay there

6-JULERICA-Monster last quarter in Haw debut

10-YNOTTHISHOS-just surprised from outside post

10-TOWN GOSSIP-Dropper gets second Lasix

1-ROCK JAGGER-Post position relief big help

9-M I ROCKIN-Just won this level on Sunday

RACE 7 - TCA (G2): #4 STATIC FIRE is legit early sprint speed and that could present a subtle pace advantage for her in this race. She has been able to make the lead through a fast pace, whereas some of her other rivals when on the lead are doing so under slow/moderate race shapes. That includes morning line favorite, #6 YUUGIRI one that has had some gate issues breaking a little slow as of late and found success with the stalking trip last out in the Open Mind Stakes. She was value in that spot and in the pace of #1 WICKED HALO, a weaker favorite given the timing and race shape. With that said, WICKED HALO projects to return to a top effort today and also to show more early speed, a RunStyle where she is much more effective. 

RACE 9 - AMERICAN PHAROAH (G1): #2 MUTH comes in with some of the strong numbers and looking to pick up his first graded stakes win. He did take a step back in the Best Pal (G3) though to his credit stayed on as the BOS/Best of Speed unable to hold off his stablemate Prince of Monaco, the next out winner of the DMR Futurity (G1). Following the Best Pal (G3) the connections entered, though scratched from the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga and have been pointing to this race. MUTH has kept up his training and visually coming into this race the right way with some strong works in quality company topped off with a very impressive move on 9/25 to prepare for this race.

There are some quality maidens in this race and runners that fit with the others in this field. #3 NEXT LEVEL has been progressive number wise race-to-race though was not on the level of the DMR Futurity company last month to present as a contender here. #6 BE YOU also has graded stakes experience coming back the Hopeful (G1), a rough run race. #7 INDISPENSABLE showed run after a compromised start and worked strongly right after the debut - this could be an ambitious jump in the second start, though all around can project he has more to show.