Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 SHADY MAPLE ALSTAR is still looking for that first win this season though has been competitive and that even includes the race last week when credited with the 5^th place finish, though the effort as solid as many on the day and those returning here. Also with a “trip” on 9/24, #9 SHATTERED DREAMS one that overall must improve though certainly can step forward from the excuse last week.

#1 FIREBALLS PRIDE has been more consistent especially on the win end over #3 FOX VALLEY NAUTICA, though to his credit he has shown improvement and tough to ignore C. Stewart in the bike as a change today. The lightly raced #4 MOPPIES MOOSS also carries improvement and should be the case taking a step forward here off the 9/24 race visuals. 

#4 FUNKY WIGGLE holds the edge in strong back class and returning to top form she stands out strongly in this compact field. 

The pace should be honest here once again given the complexion of the field and with the presence of #2 HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY in the race. HE’ZZZ also a confirmed front runner and can set a fast pace, sometimes to his detriment as was the case last week setting too fast a pace that caught up to him late. Should a similar pace scenario play out #1 FOX VALLEY GEMINI and #4 GET E UP should look to capitalize late. 

#4 CALYPSO MOON comes back from one of the two common races on 9/24 and dominated the day and holds the edge coming back in here. #7 CHANGE THE TUNE was BTL way back on 9/10 and since and as one that typically follows an “every other” pattern all around should return to a top effort today. #1 STAND BY YOUR MAN changed the entire 9/17 race when breaking at the start as the favorite and keeping that in mind when looking at that common race. She returns from the 9/24 common race when off the board, though part of that due to starting behind the ground and ground loss on the first turn. With overall upside she will return here with a driver change for the first time this season and intent can be gathered with that adjustment. 

A lot of the horses in this field have been trading places race-to-race and overall similar times and figures as they return here. This could be the time for #2 LOUS PRIVATE EYE to have his day coming off a subtle trip against the flow on 9/10 and returning from an improved effort in the 9/24 common race. #5 LITTLE CHIPPER will have another chance to show his stuff here this season as a slight excuse impacted him here on 9/10 and as projected improved Tuesday (10/3) at HoP. Longshot #10 D’LOUIGI has more to show and while a driver change (and post) might be what he needs would not be surprised for him to show more this evening. 

#2 HEATH BAR looked like one of a group on 10/1 that needed and should benefit from a start and comes back with that conditioning under their belt. That similar conditioning follows #6 TALK ABOUT VALOR, the 10/1 “chalk” that did have some excuse with the outside draw and overall visuals to suggest he can improve off that race. They will require a top effort though have the race needed to compete with #4 ON HIGHER GROUND shipping in as one that looks very strong in this race and a solid horse to beat. 

#3 APPLE VALLEY has consistently recorded some of the strong efforts both times and figures with a class edge over many in this spot. #6 BOMBAY PARKWAY comes in as part of a group that could be weaker on class though upgraded from the trip (driver change back to C. Leonard) and strong close (despite the 6^th place finish) on 9/24 – an effort that was not far off place finisher #8 DOUBLE PARKED, one that had the favorable trip and doing best to hold their position late. 

#4 RADIANT DIAMOND was one of the more impressive performances from opening week and had to settle for place coming back on 9/24 though arguably ran the better race and “best” in my opinion.

Might see #10 FOX VALLEY SHANIA the second choice here and while she can improve off the  9/24 debacle, she still has her work cut out for her from the outside and with her run style as well as others in here that can show early positional speed. Alternatives (and value!) for the underneath include #6 SHESPERTIFULIKPERT and longshot #9 ZENA LOU.

There are a few in this race coming back from “drawing a line through” races: #3 ROCK PARTY was taken well out of the race right from the start on 10/1 and showed run without J. Franco giving an honest effort to compete on the day. His form prior makes him a major contender.

On 10/1, #1 LA LOLITA broke stride, had ground loss, and showed run despite what it shows on paper; and that carries to #9 BLUE DEVIL as he was extra-wide unable to overcome the draw and ground loss still honest for show – those two coming in less “obvious” than place finisher, #5 JUSTA HINTOF SPICE. 

Giving #7 WHISKEY LOU the edge over #2 GJLINDAGRIT as the two should be the clear 1-2 betting favorites. Coming back from the common race with WHISKEY LOU on 9/24, #1 LOUS ESMERALDA and #3 PEEKABOO SAL carry upside as both were hindered right from the start and tough to turn the tables though can get into the mix.

#8 FOX VALLEY JESSIE must continue to improve, though she caught the eye with a BTL effort on 9/24 and prefer her (especially at the higher number) from the GJLINDAGRIT common race. 

#6 NIKO MAN had the better of #5 GOOMSTER on 9/24 and tough to see a reversal of those two here. #3 WHATTA YEAR was upgraded from his first couple starts here this season when getting up to spice up the trifecta at 78.5-1 on 9/24. He looks to rebound to a top effort today as he was not asked last Sunday and that effort especially a strong late move gives him a look to get back into contention today. 

This is a competitive race and contentious enough to look outside #5 KING OF ACES shipping in and #4 MISTER SLEEZE as the favorite/shorter odds alone.

Longshot, #9 INCREDIBLE BOMBAY turned in a BTL effort on 9/29 one that should have him overlooked in this spot and off the recent running lines. The races on his best day stack up at this level and with his main rivals.

#6 NOT ME GRAM has recency on his side, the win from 9/16 and flow upgrade setting the solid pace on 10/1. #2 WESTERN VINNY can improve off the overall trip on 9/29. Also returning from the 9/30 race, #7 BOBS TIME has a notable driver change after not being asked and wide and #10 BAGMAN was also off the pace not asked – both have improving form while a top effort is still required. 

#3 TREY ROCKETTE is going to make his second start on this circuit and improvement expected from a decent run closing ground late with ground loss and continued to run on after the wire. The outside draw could assist the number on #9 ALBERGO HANOVER coming back from a higher level event on 10/1 and makes his second start on this circuit.

Class relief comes into play for #5 ALWAYS A WARRIOR as he ships in for this event. #6 LUCKYCHRIS returns with some class relief and back to the level where he was competitive on 9/24. #7 GUSSY’S TRUMP CARD will be required to improve though another that finds some overall class relief from the races earlier this season and could be further intent with K. Husted in the bike today – he was the driver for Fox Valley Carlin, the 10/1 show finisher. 

#4 G T FIVE HUNDRED could present a pace advantage in addition to being logical as he fits on class and speed coming off a series of competitive efforts under similar conditions here at Hawthorne. #6 NAVY SOUL is moving forward this season as a lightly raced four-year-old. He figures to be under the radar for the connections and off the recent running lines/finishing positions - despite a BTL effort last out, 9/19.

#2 QUEEN OF MISSOULA is another logical type - she fits with improving form and should handle the added distance. Arnold has sent out live runners as of late and shows up here with #5 GATHER a filly that was scheduled to run at Keeneland in April to suggest intent for this meet. As far as the debut, she had adversity from the start shown some interest, has more to show and the added ground is also to her benefit. 

#1 SOUPER QUEST could be super tough in this spot with their early speed, rail draw and proven turf sprinter with figures that are consistent and on par. #6 MOUNSIEUR COCO has subtle back class and numbers that are buried and could be overlooked coming back from the 9/9 KD G3 ($1 million) event dealing with traffic and has a slight excuse. The rider change suggests intent and especially with trip as they should show more tactical speed today. 

Longshot on the morning line, #11 GOLD FOOT turned in a  sneaky good, BTL debut race where he had legit TROUBLE+ dealing with inside TRAFFIC still turning in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire. 

Sean McCarthy could have a day with a few live runners on the card and coming back with #5 QUICKLY PARK IT off the freshening from Del Mar. She will return to the starter allowance condition, the level of her most recent start where the trip/TACTIC- compromised her chance to compete on the day and projects to IMPROVE. 

This is a competitive race where a case can be made for many in this group. If the morning line sticks, #4 ZE'BUL has a look as a horse that has struggled to find where he fits and the connections placing him in some tougher spots where he should appreciate the class relief today. The surface/distance change should not be an issue. 

5-LOUS MANDALORIAN-Like the way things set up for him

7-SHADY MAPLE ALSTAR-He seems to be one of the fastest of these

1-FIREBALL’S PRIDE-Capable of leading throughout

1-ANNAS LUCKY STAR-Should be very tough in Illinois breds

4-FUNKY WIGGLE-She was a monster here last year

5-LOULITA-Finally broke long winless streak in last

2-HE’ZZZ A WISE SKY-Back to IL breds; shouldn’t get caught

1-FOX VALLEY GEMINI-Leading earner; best of the rest

4-GET E UP-Sharp qualifier; rested and ready

4-CALYPSO MOON-Late move in last got them

9-ILLINI DIVA-Might duel with top pick late

1-STAND BY YOUR MAN-Better than last two would indicate

1-TRU CASH-Won last 2; blistering barn

8-LOTA GRIT-Just a head short in last

9-FOX VALLEY PARKER-Surprised many of these in last

4-ON HIGHER GROUND-Beware the shipper; 1^st time IL breds?

6-TALK ABOUT VALOR-Might lead throughout

3-LOUSDOBB-Always in the hunt

1-FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT-Right trip can do it

3-APPLE VALLEY-Might finish fastest of all

7-SKEETER MACHINE-Threat to lead from flag fall to finish

4-RADIANT DIAMOND-Just seems faster than her rivals

10-FOX VALLEY SHAINA-Early break cost her in last; post hurts

2-BELL BOOTS-Question morning line; big chance

5-JUSTA HINTOF SPICE=Needed last after 3 months away

7-NEVER MIND N-Shipper does love to win

9-BLUE DEVIL-Can come from far back

7-WHISKEY LOU-Fights off other speed

2-GJLINDAGRIT-Right off the pace; won 7 this year

5-HONOLOULOU-Secures show dough late

6-NIKO MAN-May have forgotten how to lose

5-GOOMSTER-Last 2 losses came at the hands of Niko Man

2-LOUS ANDIAMO-Possible distant 3^rd late

5-KING OF ACES-In money 10 of 11 this year

6-NOT ME GRAM-Never far off the lead

8-ONE BAD DRAGON-Might need the race

8-LUCK ON THE BEACH-Beat easier with authority

3-TREY ROCKETTE-Better trip from better post

6-LUCKYCHRIS-Just missed this level 2 races back

SPINSTER (G1): The race shape today is a different scenario than the Personal Ensign (G1) that allowed #2 IDIOMATIC a "lone" lead and took advantage of the dynamic and track profile - factors that played against #3 NEST as she is upgraded of the pair today. #5 BELLAMORE has not show to be as "fast" as those two. Though she has buried graded stakes form, that quality to transfer here as she makes her first start for the new trainer (same owner) and familiar rider Garcia. 

#6 SOHO broke her maiden impressively sprinting on talent alone as she is not a 5f type. She should move up with the added ground and her debut already fits with the majority of this field.

#5 LOTERIE has the benefit of surface/distance and stakes experience given an upgrade from a tough, rough trip in the Juvenile Fillies Turf last month still finishing a solid second; her rival #2 FLATTERY benefit from a much, much more favorable journey to win.