Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 LADY FREE WILL showed sneaky run on debut after a SLOG made a middle MOVE and late CLOSE at a time when Lanerie was COLD. She can move forward off that race and has the benefit recency, a change from many others in this field returning from slightly layoffs. #9 STAGE BELL also fits logically. She has current form coming into this event, project to IMPROVE off the CD start last month and finds the class change with prior dirt form to fit at this level. 

#3 SOLIDIFY turned in a BTL effort on 9/22 compromised from the rail SLOG making a move to finish in a BLANKET at the wire. That effort (and overall form) fits right back at today's condition on class and speed - trip will be key from Navas. 

#3 STEEL RACER looked to be "given" the 9/21 race coming off a two month break under a passive ride. Overall visuals suggest they can benefit from the DROP they find here. #8 I FEEL THE NEED was a vet scratch from that same 9/21 race at CD and fits at this level. The challenge with her, especially with the projected shorter odds is trip as she is a confirmed closer. 

The lone mare, #6 FLORIS is a legitimate longshot, though has back races that make her competitive with a top effort. She comes into this race on a repeating form cycle pattern a third off, two sprints to a route, has produced a top effort in the past. 

As far as #1 EAST SHORE she fits as she has consistently turned in OptixFIG on OFR and competitive efforts at the claiming level. She will give up recency off a near three month break and has shown the pattern of racing herself into shape - yet to run one of her better races fresh, to consider as value (lack of) off the bench. Value also should be noted for #7 WINDY BAY as she is capable though does not hold a strong edge to justify being shorter than others. 

#7 SUCH SOUNDS has consistent turf form that fits and experience over this course keying off the maiden win earlier this year. She has struggled with the recent layoff lines and encouraging she shows up with the 27-day turnaround and back to the preferred surface. Going back to 9/21 she added front wraps for that race, a change from previous starts and should look for that removal here. 

This race goes through #11 AIR OF DEFIANCE with a strong edge over the others with experience in this field. 

Brad Cox could be tough with a solid pair in this race. #1 INSIGNIA has not been as flashy figure wise compared to stablemate #4 PUNCHBOWL, though has been solid in every start and consistent. The figures (and hype) from PUNCHBOWL should have her as the strong favorite here. While those numbers from earlier this season make her legit, she is not very exciting of a play at a short number coming off the layoff and first start against older. 

#7 HOLY FOLEY is logical in this spot and has slight edge over #5 HOLA GATA as she makes her first start against winners. Some racing luck is required for #13 BE MY SUNSHINE to draw in and with the draw though as an individual fits and should appreciate the distance cutback. 

#2 RUNNING MUNNIN returns to a similar condition from the debut last month, showing run and should be able to build off the debut. #5 RUNAWAY JOKE returns from a productive maiden event at KYD and could certainly improve out of that debut given the draw trip and experience alone. 

#9 WE MISS ARLINGTON should be ready for his debut given the pattern from DiVito and reasonable placement first out. #11 KARLWITHANARL makes their debut for Medina, a barn quietly having a good meet with the presence of Saez notable picking up this call.