Handicapper Tips & Picks

D’Amato has a lot of the field covered and upgraded #3 HONEY PANTS returning to this course and #4 ELM DRIVE one that physically presents TURF and returns to the grass for a second time. #6 UNBRIDLED MARY should appreciate the cutback in distance as she makes the second start off the layoff and suggests intent by Sadler for this stakes race. Berrios remains with MARY opening up #8 WET MY BEAK for J. Ortiz; this lightly raced four-year-od moved up on the turf and this season overall and should continue to hold her form here.

As far as #2 WHITE MOONLIGHT she has class on her side and proven at this extended sprint distance. She was more effective on the lead two back then covered up over a tricky turf course at Goodwood prior to the three month layoff. #12 PLAYLIST also holds some quality though also will be tested for trip given the draw and race complexion as well as the longer sprint distance – value considerations for that pair. 

#10 LAST CALL LONDON has been freshened after the summer series and with form at this statebred stakes level to compete. He was the horse to follow out of Pleasanton with a BTL 5^th place run that day and just unlucky in the Graduation Stakes. He was rushed back for the Im Smokin and was not at his peak performance that day. #12 MICI’S EXPRESS really stepped up in the statebred stakes division; his two BTL in the money finishes did not go unnoticed. He will return to this conditions after taking on open graded stakes company in the Zuma Beach (G3) last month. #11 MAGIC SPOON ran a huge race on debut, and someone seemed to know this one was a runner as he was bet heavily and down from the 6-1 ML. 

The first stakes of the Breeders’ Cup is a tough race to decipher as a case can be made for every runner in this field. In just a limited sample, keying off a trend for BC at Santa Anita, the US based horses have had an edge over this course over European runners, a shift from the trends at Keeneland and Churchill where it is tough to say the course profile, shipping distance or 5f distance played a role. In short, spread; leading up to the race clues on the race track (visuals) and the board can help in terms of play/ narrowing down a key or contender. 

The analysis starts with #7 TAMARA as she is listed as the favorite and being discussed as perhaps one the bigger singles on the day and even weekend. While what she has done on the track merit the “horse to beat” with improving numbers, open length wins and recent G1 victory. She is doing something new as she stretches out in distance, and while capable and tough to hold that against her as many others will stretch out around two-turns, she is the shorter number so that becomes a bigger factor. In addition, she has not shown herself to be a good gate horse, and that must be considered before rather than after.

Looking at Contenders, #12 JUST F Y I has a similar resume with softer numbers though has run against solid competition. She improved with added ground as projected from her debut and won the Frizette (G1) with class is a massive downpour. She has been on the Santa Anita grounds and makes a positive physical appearance, something of a trait for trainer B. Mott.

Todd Pletcher will sent out a trio in this race and looks to have intent. #3 SCALABLE could be that preferred horse despite still holding maiden status. Going back to her debut, she caught a strong group late in the meet and projected to improve off the race with added ground. Pletcher rather than finding a maiden spot where he was stabled, shipped to Santa Anita to run in the Chandelier (G2) a race run over this course and distance – intent. She turned in solid effort given the dynamic of the race, #6 CHATALAS controlled on the lead for a “hot” barn and moderate pace. SCALABLE tracked inside was game to earn place and really the only runner in the field to make up ground. She appears to have come out of the race well going to work at Keeneland on October 27^th in company with G1 winning stablemate, #1 CANDIED holding her own, on hold and while the two earned the same time for the move, in my opinion preferred SCALABLE visually. #11 LIFE TALK has been consistent and has foundation on her side moving forward steadily though still must improve on the G1 level to win. 

#11 SHE FEELS PRETTY has shown herself to be a special horse in her first two starts and deserving favorite. She showed a ton of class to win on debut against the profile at Ellis Park and in similar type manner and trip (SLOG) waited for her cue to run and allowed the class to take over. She dominated a strong group in the Natalma (G1) getting clear late and in hand continued to gallop out beyond the one-turn mile well within herself. She appears to have come out of the race well not wasting much time before returning to training and brings in a steady series of works every 6-7 days for this race. #15 GO WITH GUSTO (cross entered in Race 1) also ran on the same Woodbine card, though in the Summer (G1) giving a solid account (BTL) effort. She requires a lot of racing luck to even make the race though one to keep on the radar.

In terms of the European runners: #6 PORTO FORTUNA comes out of some of the strong G1 races and holding her own against that top level competition. #9 CARLA'S WAY will have the class and distance test though appears the right time as she is steadily improving race to race. #14 LES PAVOTS is another solid filly, the outside post is no bargain though could get overlooked on that factor.  

This is a competitive race where many have run fast, proven class and will face off with each other today in a real test for this group. Decisions must be made to narrow down as a case can be made for almost all in the field.

#6 LOCKED is solid in the role as an improving type that has shown quality since his debut. Stablemate #11 NOTED is likely to fall through the cracks to the more obvious runners and with speed figures that are not as high as his rivals likely to stay one of the longer on the board. In terms of speed figures he must run the race of his career to win, though he has done what has been asked of him in each start and tough to knock this honest horse. Watching him work the word “robust” comes to mind; his most recent drill was in company with #9 FIERCENESS one that looks to be coming into this race well, like his visuals galloping at Santa Anita though still need to see him prove it on the track and around two turn. NOTED worked outside FIERCENESS the two given the same time with NOTED in a strong hold and did not appear they wanted him to pass while the two earned the same time. I. Ortiz has been aboard both horses and remains with Noted as J. Velazquez, former T. Pletcher first call picks up the mount on Fierceness. 

Looking to find some separation and have an opinion, choosing to look outside the group returning from the Champagne (G1) - all are quality though prefer others in this spot. 

#10 MUTH is proven at the distance of the Baffert pair and with the edge on recency. #2 PRINCE OF MONACO did what needed to be done pairing stakes wins though nothing overly impressive and will be doing something new today with the added ground and larger field. 

Of the O’Brien team, #8 UNQUESTIONABLE is preferred despite R. Moore sticking with #2 RIVER TIBER. UNQUESTIONABLE is exiting strong races, a "winning" G1 last out at Longchamp and should be set up for the mile and in strong hands with Dettori.

Noted in the Juvenile (race 8) is worth a follow with #4 CAN GROUP and #3 TOK TOK coming out of the Bourbon (G2) the common race last month and both solid types. 

Trying to get creative in the finale (#3 HEJAZI is "most likely", though coming off a layoff and has faltered as the “most likely” in the past.#5 MAN CHILD looks peaked to run his race returning from the layoff. Overall he is lighter than most of his rivals, though should consider the majority of his races were contested in the juvenile season and if can present upside off those races, he can step up to this level.