Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace could be more contentious today and find a set up to get #3 FRONTIER METIS into the mix at a price. 

#6 FOX VALLEY CAYMAN figures to be a strong and legitimate favorite in this race with the number expected to be shorter than the 8-5 ML. 

#5 GOTTA GO GRAM follows an every other pattern that should have him back to a top effort here and looking for that belated win this season. #4 MAZIN BLAZIN and #7 DOCTOR CRUISE are improving with each start are tough to knock, the shorter number however is. Longshot #1 DOWNTOWNLEROYBROWN projects to improve from the October 20th common race and should be overlooked off the recent running lines and finishing positions to get in for a share. 

#7 MOPPIES MOOSS looked to improve with the driver change though broke stride both times and those races have created an "every other" pattern - his top races compete and given some excuses along the way can still project improvement. 

#5 MISTER SLEAZE appears value in this spot. He has upside with the current form cycle and coming back from the slightly higher conditioned race last week. He did come up short as the favorite though that might have been more of a mistake by the public than the horse - he was credible in the show result making a wide move. 

This spot should be as favorable as any for #5 R TYLER TOWNE one that has been facing much tougher company this season.

#1 SUPER SHARK and #3 FOX VALLEY CARLOS could present the edge in here on class as the others come back from slightly softer events last week. 

There could be some short priced runners on the card tonight though the shortest price award could land with #2 FRANKSNATIVEWESTERN - and deserving as his form this season towers over this group. Trying to mix in a price, #9 INCREDIBLE BOMBAY has another poor draw though buried form including the effort last week with severe ground loss. 

#4 ADALECIA had a sneaky look last week at a big price and off the visuals could have been in the number with a better trip. #1 KARATOP MOOSS earned a follow from earlier in the season and while she has held form as of late those effort were not on the "winning" level given the class and should be the higher number over #10 DELIGHT MOON returning from the common race last week. 

#5 PANIC ALARM was two lengths behind Paddington (with legit trouble, though not cost the win) back in March and held his own against solid competition overseas. Since shown up in the US his class showed in the La Jolla (G3) making a move against the flow and behind perfect winner, #10 MALTESE FALCON. Wheeling right back for the DMR Derby(G2) he improved number wise and again with adversity from a slow start showing a move through traffic. He picks up a live rider today and given the complexion of the field should hold value.

#11 MONDEGO might have been “over the top” leading into the VA Derby (G3) and has been freshened for this spot. With the time to regroup he will also reunite with Rosario, a rider that has been up with success in the past and could suggest intent here. Intent could also follow #2 BE YOUR BEST as she wheels right back in three weeks where they were likely expecting more in the Sands Point (G2) a race run over a wet course in the rain and she did not have the trip to be her best on the day.

#6 WEBSLINGER has the resume to be given the role of morning line favorite. He will give up some recency and keying off his form cycle in the past, he often races himself into shape and his top effort is required here to win. Value is also some concern with #12 SILVER KNOTT as like WEBSLINGER needs to time his run. He is in good hands with Buick back aboard for the first time this cycle, though value must compensate as this is a competitive field. 

This race starts with #3 CODY’S WISH, a multiple graded staked winner and defending his win in this race last year. Coming back this season and overall he has been most effective around one turn and has the two turn distance today. Santa Anita can play differently than Keeneland when he was able to close with the race FLOW last year. While he is the horse to beat, he can be beat.

#1 STAGE RAIDER is softer on class, though has recorded fast races that stack up on par. His form with those races is upgraded around two (or 1.5) turns. He has tactical speed and grit and could find a similar inside stalking trip to the stakes race at Ellis Park back in August, his first start for Devaux.

#7 ALGIERS strong during the Meydan meet, a season that kicked off with a synthetic start. He has that pattern coming into this race exiting the Durham Cup (G3) at Woodbine (also has been entered in the Woodward (G2) BAQ 10/1) to prepare for the Breeders’ Cup coming off the layoff. Doyle will be back aboard to further intent.

#8 SHIRL’S BEE is legit longshot and to say the least, another that will be class tested though one to mention as he is the most curious entrant in this field. He showed a lot of ability winning on debut and in a quality, full field race first out. He validated that debut in stakes company for a second start. He required time and found the changes all around returning last month in the Bourbon Trail Stakes, a race that looked every bit a PREP, though could not have guessed this spot was the target. He has trained consistently out of the race and D. Stewart has been working with this one and has been a struggle to get him to change leads; he is late to get to that right lead in the stretch, something he failed to do in the Two Thousand Guineas (G3) and might have cost him the race. 

#11 LUMIERE ROCK was right off #2 WARM HEART back at Ascot with a textbook R. Moore ride getting the first run while LUMIERE ROCK was late to get into the clear. While the quality of WARM HEART is tough to knock, LUMIERE ROCK could be under the radar in this race. The quality of three-year-old fillies does not end there with #7 LINDY in the race and returning from a BTL effort in the QE II (G1) last month.

#9 DIDIA is not as flashy, but she is game. She has a will to win and if she is in with a shot and any point in the race any horse around her better be prepared for a dogfight.

Quality is no question with #6 INSPIRAL and deserving of the morning line favorite role on that alone. Distance wise, this will change for her as she has been a consistent miler stretching out here. 

#4 MATAREYA draws well for her style and could sit the right trip again, the trip that got the better of #1 GOODNIGHT OLIVE back on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. Since that win, Matareya was compromised by an extreme track profile at Ellis Park, one that played every bit to the front running strength of #7 SOCIETY. Matareya returned in the Ballerina (G1) where she drew inside, saved ground, not a bad trip overall, however for her she prefers to race in the clear of horses and Prat can dictate that trip here. #2 CLEARLY UNHINGED has a tall task as a the lone sophomore in the field. She will trade the maturity for local experience and should run an honest race here, holding a favorable and versatile run style for this race. 

Not going to make the case that #9 ASTRONOMER is the “best” horse in the race though he is doing very well coming into this race and that current form could be (along with Ryan Moore) on his side. He has had some favorable trips since coming back from the layoff, though also had to come out of his natural run style a bit. As far as the “better” horses in this race, they might have seen their better days and to win would rely on back class and a trip to carry. #1 SHIRL’S SPEIGHT can be upgraded with his RunStyle and the 30-1 morning line, though would be surprised if that number sticks. #10 SONGLINE is very honest though really does not offer much value. The up-and-comers in this race hold upside, though are three-year-old’s taking on older and price compensation is required.  

Pace looks to make this race and value to be found as #4 IDIOMATIC, #5 ADARE MANOR and #8 RANDOMIZED could all take wagering support off their current form and recent wins streaks. All three have been able to find favorable scenarios, whether trip, race shape or track profile and all three share a similar RunStyle today and will take on a different dynamic than what they have had in their favor this season..

#3 PRETTY MISCHIEVIOUS has been consistent and Gaffalione has been able to put her in the race and sit the right trip – a trip she could find here stalking a contentious pace. #9 CLAIRIERE is no value at the 4-1 morning line, though that line could drift and 7-1 being fair odds she is playable. This type of race shape is one she has had success with in the past.

#6 SEARCH RESULTS is another that given the right ride could fall into the right stalking trip. She must also bring a top effort; she ran a top winning the Locust Grove (G3) last out at CD and requires every bit of that 49-day recovery time to come back today with the effort needed to win. 

Tough to make a strong "win" contender case for #11 LE DA VIDA as she is lighter overall than some of her main rivals in here. With that said, she comes into this race in form and her RunStyle avoids the early contention where she can stay in the clear and pick up horses and one to include in the verticals. #7 WET PAINT will be looking for similar in terms of trip, though has had some favorable setups and overall has not shown much improvement. She also gives up recency coming off a 77-day layoff into this race and the Alabama (G1) effort, her highest figure to date was earned with the track bias. 

Looking to get creative and outside the box: #1 SHAHRYAR looks pointed to this race and some intent with the projected rebound here. The distance of today’s race is his ideal and in terms of current form, this will be his second start of the season with this race in mind. Demuro will be back aboard, fits this horse and watching him in the morning he looks very well on the track at Santa Anita in the morning. #13 WAR LIKE GODDESS is a proven stayer for the distance, she ran a “winning” race in this event last year setting for show stacked against the course profile. Trip is key once again given the draw, though she will move in one post and some of the speed coming out of the race with the defection of Get Smokin. 

Giving those two a "price" look while respecting and not knocking #5 AUGUSTE RODIN and #9 MOSAHDAF in any way as they are the "most likely" in this event. Form and timing is the main knock on #11 KING OF STEEL wheeling back in two weeks for a horse that is typically given more time between starts - something that would need to be required in price. 

#5 DERMA SOTOGAKE has talent, has been pointed to this race and can compete with this field in their current form. The connections are making a bold move to race here after the KY Derby, a very unconventional move and one they recognize and will not be embarrassed in making. This is a quality horse and would not risk a move like this unless they were confident he belonged. The connections scratched from a race over the summer when he was not where they wanted him to be and seems all systems go for the Classic. DERMA SOTOGAKE has tactical speed and has shown grit when challenged and plenty of stamina in the tank.

DERMA SOTOGAKE should hold value, an easy play at the 20-1 morning line, coming in as the least “hyped” Japanese runner with #8 USHBA TESORO in the race. He is a very good horse and deserving to be the shorter of the two, though given the recent scratch and what was already a lot of hype might find himself favored if not close to it.

#13 PROXY could also get “lost” on the board with the competitive nature of this field and outside draw. He is a G1 winner and has experience over this course keying off the BTL place finish in the Big Cap (G1) at this course and distance back in March. As far as the outside draw, he is better outside than inside with this type of race shape and Rosario has been able to find versatility when needed as far as trip placement and drawn outside the main pacesetter, Arabian Knight, he could just follow him from the gate and establish position into the first turn. 

The defection of Arcangelo changed the complexion as the entire field moves in and some runners must not adjust tactically. #12 ARABIAN KNIGHT was always committed to the lead with his RunStyle and draw though #3 WHITE ABARRIO now must show more early speed as he is in post two and does not have “speed” horses on either side to establish position or he will shuffled early out of his race. #6 SAUDI CROWN has been a front runner and that can be expected off his current form, running lines, however watching him train into this race they have been working on him “rating” off horses, a change that can take away the edge he requires for this classic distance. #2 ZANDON, now with the rail has a tough task as far as trip, though in good hands with the rider change to Dettori. Number wise ZANDON is the most consistent in terms of recording triple digit OptixFIG and should be the highest odds of that group to upgrade on value alone. The assessment still considers him a longshot to win the race, he is less of a longshot to find his way into the minors. 

With some of the other early speed on the AE, #7 NOBALS could be controlling speed in this 5f turf sprint. The instructions for Corrales back on Derby Day was to sent and get to the lead and those similar tactics are likely in play here. He was legit speed against the course profile in the Troy (G3) with his presence that day playing against #3 CARAVEL (and should play against her again today) looking to regain her top form and projects to be a much shorter price this BC time around. #11 JASPER KRONE is suited to today’s 5f distance and while he has some early speed even if he lacks NOBALS type of speed he has enough positional, class and distance to be right there drawn outside both  NOBALS and #5 LIVE IN THE DREAM.

#1 BIG INVASION must be left in the mix especially anywhere near the morning line. Rosario has been off and on this season, though has historically rode well in California and served as a "wake up" in the past. That jockey trend should be followed early on and especially for this race as trip is needed for both his RunStyle along with the rail draw. Stablemate #9 ROSES FOR DEBRA is a very solid turf sprinter, as far as class she has not faced this type of graded stakes test/level of competition. 

#9 GUNITE could be legit and sit the trip drawn outside #7 SPEED BOAT BEACH. Both of those horses are upgraded here from a pace standpoint and their edge over morning line favorite and returning champ, #8 ELITE POWER. There is a strong scenario where SPEED BOAT BEACH is just quicker to the front (should also follow track and trainer trends) and position himself to go gate-to-wire. If SPEED BOAT BEACH does not gun it and try to clear GUNITE benefits drawn outside and in that scenario has enough early speed to sit on his hip with a stronger finishing kick. In terms of current form, GUNITE has been freshened since the Saratoga meet and from the PRX Mile back to his preferred one turn distance. The trip is key and getting the jump on #8 ELITE POWER, similar scenario to the Forego (G1) back in August.

In terms of the local group: #3 AMERICAN THEOREM (back to back BTL) is value coming into this race under the radar; a contrast to #6 THE CHOSEN VRON. Both should hold their form to compete here and preferred especially on value with #2 DR. SCHIVEL and #4 HOIST THE GOLD coming off wins. #5 THREE TECHIQUE is a longshot to win with this RunStyle paired with the 6f distance though can be upgraded with a favorable second-off form cycle pattern. 

5-RG’S TRACER-Scored this level 2 back; can surprise again

1-EX WHY ZEE-Needs to leave better

2-NOT ME GRAM-In money 2 of last three versus similar

6-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Drops; seems much the best

4-FOX VALLEY FALCON-Wired last two, threat to do it again

2-MAJOR HARLEY-Gets close with late attack

7-DOCTOR CRUISE-Lightly raced but should be good enough

4-MAZIN BLAZIN-Been good every race

5-GOTTA GO GRAM-Best would be good enough

3-LOUS AMAZON-Tough if she stays flat

2-LOUS ENCHANTRESS-Plenty quick; might wire them

7-MOPPIES MOOSS-Fast finish gets her close

5-MISTER SLEAZE-Beaten favorite in money last three

2-AL’S HAMMERED-Took a lot of early money in last

1-ROCKIN MEDICINE-Can awaken versus somewhat easier

7-CAVIART RICHMOND-Maybe fastest if he fires

7-ASHLEE’S SILVER GUY-Just beat many of these; 2^nd Lasix today

1-SUPER SHARK-Seems to be meeting easier

3-FOX VALLEY CARLOS-Quicker than most; has to be caught

2-FRANKSNATIVEWESTERN-Been meeting far tougher; can dominate

1-MILLENNIAL-Finally post position relief

4-GUSSY’S TRUMP CARD-Rounding into form

9-FOX VALLEY TATUM-Drops into wake-up spot

7-MATTIE SHARK-In good form; likely contender

4-ADELECIM-Been a victim of tough trips