Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 BUMP IN THE NIGHT debuted on the closing weekend of the previous CD meet in a full field MSW race that overall was on the weaker side for the level. The race has been productive and enough to see her move forward off the debut (and the rail) for this second start on the drop. 

Mott coming off a strong BC showing could look to see that momentum continue in this spot with #5 BEARINGS. Going back to the debut last December, they showed run struggling over the off-track making a sneaky CLOSE GALLOP and projected to IMPROVE with added ground  - a STRETCH out they will find today. They returned off the 294-day layoff on 9/23 (night racing) likely needing the race and given a very aggressive warmup that took something out of them before getting to the gate and against the Slow early and late race shape was unable to get into the race there to compete. 

Drury has picked this spot for #3 PIGALLE (trainer scr from 11/3 under similar) for their return. While they are not the most creative, they are logical. 

#5 STORMQUIST will make their third start off the layoff and second start for A. Claire. He was claimed out of his maiden win on 10/7 for the $50k tag. He was protected and "given" the allowance on 10/27 wheeling off that win just 17-days later and in a spot where they were overmatched and should appreciate the DROP to compete here. #8 FAMILY FACTOR looks to have some intent for Colebrook wheeling right back in 10-days for this event and one that looks to need the shorter, one turn distance as well. Those two can present value alternatives to the McPeek pair of #7 HAM SANDWICH and #9 HEY JOE JOE. 

Contreras brings in #1 GRACE AND GLORY from HS Indy to debut here and could be seen as a confident move for these connections to debut on this circuit. 

#6 CHURCHTOWN finds some class relief off his recent series of stakes race to run in this spot and on this circuit for Attfield. As far as running on this circuit, the turf season has concluded at Woodbine where he is based and has been training. CHURCHTOWN returns from a freshening and has historically shown he can fire his top effort off the bench. He could be overlooked off his recent running lines and finishing positions, ignoring the BTL effort with legitimate TROUBLE+ in the July G2 and upgraded off the WIDE trip in September at KY Downs. 

#5 FRIAR LAURENCE makes his third start back off the layoff and subtle class change placed according to his abilities. When he showed up on 9/29 he was WARM, WASTED as well as wearing front wraps - something to monitor on the track today. #7 NIFTY dropped to run for the $32k tag back in August at SAR, he turned in a competitive B- effort and has been freshened and pointed for this spot kept at the same level without a suspicious drop. 

#4 UNDER OATH has the benefit of recency as he returns here in a second start back off the layoff. That return on 9/29 can be given an EX - EXCUSE on multiple factors from the trip itself to the COLD barn during the meet. His prior numbers and class stack up to present a contender. The class drop is less of a concern with this cold racing today for a tag late in the four-year-old season with racing this year, whereas the drop on #1 AIR COMBAT creates some reservations running for a tag off the layoff and late in the season. 

#4 BABA VOSS was unable to draw into a Keeneland allowance and fits on class based on his dominant effort breaking his maiden and competitive allowance effort in the 9/7 KY Downs race, that has held form.

Both #1 OSCAR AWARD (BTL) and #12 TALL BOY returning from competitive efforts on 10/12 at Keeneland with both runners recording a B- OptixGRADE. That is the same GRADE as place finisher #3 KING CURLIN one that had a more favorable trip of the set. 

#2 CLEAR THE AIR has upside and might be using this race for something upcoming at Turfway where he has run well and has been training, though one that should also handle grass. 

#5 SHARK SOLICITOR has been in top form and logical as the favorite, horse to beat. #7 REVEREND SCOTT skipped last week though going back to 10/20 he was part of the contentious pace that saw the race slowing late. #6 FOX VALLEY PRESLEY was able to regain some confidence against a softer group last week and should be able to hold their form from this season and in this spot. 

#4 EAGLE ON A HILL won at a similar level earlier this meet and comes back from a trouble trip last week. #1 BROOKLETS BANNER returns to similar conditions this week from last and was competitive with a "winning" type effort on the place finish with #5 SEE YA WRITE N, the lone winner. 

#1 KEY INGREDIANT had a legit excuse last week and going off prior and buried form from earlier this season appears in the right spot to rebound.

Waiting for #6 BAMA LOU to show up since 10/20 when given a legit excuse that day on trip and showed a strong middle burst despite breaking. 

#2 TIME TO RYDE unable to compete last week also had a tough draw and draws better today. The majority of the season she has been in against older and that carries here though many of the older are also proven types and tough to back with confidence. 

#8 FOX VALLEY CARLIN was given a flow upgrade from 10/29 setting a solid pace for the distance. That effort should provide fitness for this season and as one that does not need to be forwardly placed to win and has been competitive under similar conditions this season. K. Husted lands here rather than stablemate, #2 PONDA HAWK and in for the higher claiming tag as well. 

#6 GENIE INA BOTTLE had strong form last year and intent could be in play as she makes her third start of the cycle and T. Warren, the key driver from last year takes over tonight. 

Bates drove #1 SOME DANCING STAR to perfection on 10/21 and comes back in the bike and from the 10/28 trip. T. Seekman was a fit with #2 ROAN BY DESIGN earlier this season and looks to be cycling forward into this event. 

Juvenile #2 FOX VALLEY YORK finds a logical change in class, that should have him in the right spot to pick up a belated win this season. C. Leonard taking over on #1 CCCULATER is a major upgrade especially going back to 10/28 when he opted to stick with stablemate Mazin Blazin, the place finisher. #6 SIGN OF THE TIMES comes out of the same common race last week and did not have the right trip under W. Avenatti and still managed to hold show. 

#1 KIZZZMELIKEUMISSME picks up a driver change and that could be the key as she has been competitive this season and her early speed at times against the race shape. She should offer value over the more "obvious" rivals returning here. Going back to the 10/27 event last week, B. Bates with #7 FRISKIE JOLIE was unable to work a trip from the outside draw and given an excuse on the day projects to improve. Value should stick given the recent pacing lines and driver change. #10 ICE DANCE has the outside today and trip is required though one that could get overlooked and be along for a share.

5-SHARK SOLICITOR-Stalks then pounces

3-FOX VALLEY TREASON-Great form; could easily be best

1-PLAYTOROCK-Maybe post position relief helps

1-BROOKLET’S BANNER-Just missed; ready for 1^st 2023 score

4-EAGLE ON A HILL-Won the last time he raced this level

5-SEE YA WRITE N-Seldom wins anymore but always close

4-TELSTAR-Seconditis but maybe breaks through today

5-TELL ME I’M FAST-Likely more effective with drop

3-DUM LUK MOOSS-Big improvement when dropped this level

2-SWAN APPEAL-Needed last over track; drops

6-BAMA LOU-Good speed but often breaks

1-FOX VALLEY ADIRA-Just missed but 0-for-27

4-ROCKIN ARLENE-2^nd in five of 7 this year

8-AUGUSTA SATIN-Raced well with Leonard in the bike

2-TIME TO RYDE-Missed a start but good prior

3-SPIRIT SHADOW-Won last three; slight edge

4-FARMERS ONLY-In great form for months

2-PONDA HAWK-Won 3 of last 4; ready to tackle better

2-IWANNAROCKNROLL-3rd race after layoff; guessing big effort

1-DUNE DAME-Been knocking at the door

4-GO WITH THE FLO-Moved a bit too soon in last

4-JOANIE B-Maybe wears down the speed

3-LION VIRGIN-Finishes fast; likely in the money

7-ONE R ANDIS STAR-Would like better from inner post

5-READ BTWN THE LINES-Meets older but finishes fast

2-FOX VALLEY YORK-Been racing mostly in stakes

7-SIGN OF THE TIMES-Flew late at 67-1 in last

5-RESERVED PARKING-Been racing competitively

1-KIZZZMELIKEUMISSME-Gets the right trip today

5-VELOCITY MCSWEETS-Maybe finishes fastest of all

4-TONCREDBLYFASTFORU-Usually major player this level