Handicapper Tips & Picks

Willing to get creative with #3 LADY MERCEDES. She has overall upside with the class drop, recency in the second start off the layoff. In addition, she is upgraded from the HS Indy race on 10/19 given the track conditions and compromised X_BIAS.

#4 ELI'S PROMISE might not be the "best" horse in the race though if he is able to rate off what projects to be a contested early pace, he could sit the "best" trip. The form cycle pattern also suggests intent going turf-to-dirt, second off, a move that saw him win off the same pattern earlier this year here at Hawthorne. 

#8 DANCING PRINCESS has been her down worst enemy with the poor gate (TROUBLES+) antics that have had her compromised in the most recent starts. She has a solid race back in June at ELP, perhaps not the strongest MSW group, though with many stepping up from MCL, that could be to her advantage on class. Class could also upgrade #4 NAUTGHY MISS as she returns off a slight freshening, a better draw and has improving OptixFIG coming into this race. 

As far as the runners stepping up in class, #6 BETTE DAVIS made a positive PRERACE+ appearance and also things to like in running making a MOVE after a rough TROUBLES+ break and continued to GALLOP+ to suggest the IMPROVE. 

#9 HENRO was a vet scratch back in June at Ellis Park and a trainer scratch on 10/29, perhaps with the off-track to suggest intent for this spot and timing. Both #7 EUSEBIUS and #10 EVAN ON EARTH have been working steadily at CD coming into this race for their debut and could suggest intent for their connection. Prefer #2 GRAND EMPEROR making their debut as a new face over stablemate #11 FLOATATION STATION, one that has the edge on experience though has come up short of a "winning" race for the level. 

#5 STIR CRAZY earned a B OptixGRADE at this level on 9/15 with that as an edge over #1 LADY ARSINOE and #4 CREATIVE CAIRO and could even be a slight edge over her stablemate #7 ANATOLIAN.

#2 PRETTY PROVOCATIVE moved up with age and with the move to the turf and exiting a mildly productive race last out at KY Downs. That shift to the turf allowed her experience at the distance as she remains going longer here, and something she needs as she is racing above condition at the N2X. This spot was picked with a trainer scratch from an 8.5f turf race on 11/4 perhaps the distance as part of that decision. 

The back-to-back layoff lines are a knock for #5 EVIE'S ENCORE though otherwise a solid fit in this race and could even hold a class edge coming out of higher OFR events over others and into this race. That includes #10 BIG DIG one that did find the right level with the drop on 9/29 and had adversity in the trip playing a role in the outcome, a BLANKET finish. 

#1 AMAZON BABE has the one layoff line from her debut last summer with some setbacks coming back around. That is noted as she likely must come out race ready and does have a steady local series of works into this event. 

Pletcher shipped #3 BE YOU out to Santa Anita to run in the American Pharoah (G1) last month and could have had some BC intent, though had plenty in the Juvenile including the race winner, Fierceness. They rerouted here to Churchill Downs and from stakes company to maiden company for the first time since his August debut at Saratoga. #9 RESILIENCE put forth a "winning" type effort at the level here on 10/1 and improved all around off his debut effort at Saratoga.

#4 DOCTOR NASH will take a subtle change in class and distance for this race. This marks his third start off the layoff and comes into this event with progressive form. Form and intent for CD is noted given the prior placement and where he has run some of his stronger races and results. 

#13 CLOUDY was unlucky with the trip on 10/15 and needs some luck to draw in (and from the post) today.

The AE runners would add more pace to the race and those runners staying out of the event should assist #8 BAD BEAT BRIAN as he projects to be the controlling early speed. #1 JUST MIGHT might not me at his best at this point in his career, though has fitness on his side and upgraded from the change in post and race shape from the rail where he can tuck in behind BRIAN and look for first run. He returns from the KEE common event last month won by #4 HEAVEN STRETCH with a favorable ride to prevail in the BLANKET finish alongside #5 MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE. 

#6 FRONT RUN THE FED is upgraded racing X_BIAS in the Turf Sprint (G2) at KY Downs, though trip is still crucial given his off the pace RunStyle - a factor for #9 PURPLE DREAM as well. #3 OCEANIC also exits graded stakes company, though in terms of OFR is more of a lateral move and needs more to win.  

#5 J BIRD TIME made a positive PRERACE+ appearance for his debut here back in September. He was entered on 10/28 at Keeneland, a turf race and might have been secretly hoping for a main track switch. #3 CHAPERONE projected to improve with added ground and did just that here in the second start. They were entered MTO for an 8.5f MSW event on 10/28 at KEE and unable to get that surface switch have been waiting in the wings here. #10 RAPOPORT will look to build off the BTL debut for Pletcher given the added ground off that experience. 

#4 TAKEITONTHERUN projects to be much shorter on the board than she was just a week ago, though exiting the common race with many in this field has that edge on her side. That effort last week is one she must repeat to keep the edge over the others and with the new face #2 GW DREAM coming in from HoP and should move up with the class and circuit change alone. 

#3 SEE YA WRITE N had to settle for place last week though might have been "best" watching the race play out objectively. His form this season stacks up solidly to merit the role of horse to beat. #2 MANNYS TOO SPECIAL has not recorded that "fast" race this year though finds a subtle change with some hidden form to get back in the mix today. 

In terms of value, #3 WHO SAYS was not far off her rivals coming back from the common race last week. Both #2 THATS CACHE and #4 PRINCESS POPPY were able to stayed forward and could find some added pace contention with the inside and outside drawn runners. 

At times J. Franco has been a bit of a liability on the win end and creating trips. That was the case with #4 PLAYTOROCK last week. The BTL effort was in the face of many of today's returning rivals and with better handling can step up off the show last week. The driver is noted as it could apply to #6 KAGE DANIEL coming back today with a driver change to K. Husted and some subtle change in class as well that should see him move up naturally. A little more was expected from #8 REVEREND SCOTT and off that wide trip could step forward off the outcome last week. 

#2 ADALECIA had buried form and an excuse on 10/28 upgrading her on 11/4 ultimately resulting in a win. she worked hard especially taken out of her natural runstyle and perhaps if there is a knock coming back against similar here, it would be the requirement to hold form once again. #3 DANDY'S MS SWIFTY also altered her runstyle and gained late with overall visuals in line with ADALECIA and could present the value of the two today. #9 TIME TO RYDE just cleared the maiden level and will be tested on that front here. With that test in mind, she should compete with today's group given her progressive form and many of those maiden races this year where contested against older. 

#7 FOX VALLEY CARLIN has held his form this season and that form is in line with today's group. #1 CUTTING CLASS also has held his form and coming back from a place finish behind today's main rival. Improvement is projected for #9 SECTIONLINERONNIE as he makes his second start of the meet and returning from a wide trip in the 11/5 common race. 

#6 KEY INGREDIANT had buried form from earlier this season and showed up off those efforts with a game effort behind wire-to-wire winner, #4 TELSTAR.

#7 DUM LUK MOOSS is due for some racing luck. He moved up on the drop the past two weeks and that should carry here again.

#3 FROZEN SHARK is not the most "obvious" returning from the common race last week, though visually appears one that can improve off that result. 

1-ENVIOUS ANGEL-Was moving well in last when checked

4-TAKEITONTHERUN-Just missed but might have breaking issues

2-G W DREAM-Indy shipper figures to be tough

3-SEE YA WRITE N-Seems most likely but is usually vulnerable

4-PADDY MURPHY-Might have best chance to upset

5-BOBS TIME-Gets top driver; watch for late move

5-ICE DANCE-Seems like the fastest of this group
2-THAT’S CACHE-Getting close all meet

4-PRINCESS POPPY-Sharp winner of last lost driver to top pick

6-KAGE DANIEL-Class drop might do the trick

3-FOX VALLEY TREASON-In great form for months

9-MY FIRST TIME-Indy shipper; top connections

2-ADALECIA-Easily handled these last time

3-DANDYS MS SWIFTY-Moves late to finish second

1-FOX VALLEY TATUM-Move to the rail a big help

3-ARTSPIRE-Beware the late mover

2-BROOKLETS BANNER-Wired last but faces more pressure tonight

7-FOX VALLEY CURLIN-Just beat most of these

4-TELSTAR-Just won this level; can again

1-ISLE COACH-Could be tough with class drop

6-KEY INGREDIANT-Pressed top pick throughout in last

1-IDEAL’S NICOLE-Far tougher with drop to this level

4-DUNE DAME-Hard tryer can get close

3-GO WITH FLO-Best gets her close