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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu November 23rd, 2023

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Stakes Spotlight

Churchill Downs Race 11

Post Time 3:14 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 XIGERA projects to be a heavy favorite and logical in that role. She picked up her first graded stakes win last month and paired triple digit figures with the return to the dirt in this form cycle. She will be required to hold her form off those new tops. The race shape could assist as some of the early "speed" could come out with #1 HIDDEN CONNECTION opting for the Chilukki (G3) last Saturday. 

#7 MUSIC STREET should be under the radar coming into this race. This will be her first graded stakes try, though there has been some intent for this level, noting three scratches from graded stakes events in the past. #9 BELLAMORE reunites with M. Garcia and back in this stakes event where she finished second last year. 

Fair Grounds Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As individuals a case can be made for many in the field, though in terms of this race as a whole, it has a "pace makes the race" feel. #7 SUPER OCHO has enough early speed to make himself the "speed of the speed" in this race and dangerous if left alone. Others could press and try to keep the pace honest, a scenario that should assist #1 CHASING TIME from the rail. Intent looks in play by the connections in the second start of the cycle and following a favorable/improving second off, a repeating form cycle pattern.