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Sat December 2nd, 2023 |
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Stakes Spotlight
Aqueduct Race 7
Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Deserving favorite #3 LIFE TALK has been consistent race to race recording figures and holding her own in G1 company. The class drop should assist with the main concern is holding her form for one more start and off, what in modern terms has been a full season campaign.
#4 MOST OF ALL is the up and comer in this race and as she has taken a step forward in each start that progression can continue here. She debuted in a STRONG MSW event at SAR with a subtle trip and showed some improvement wheeling right back in two weeks - a rush to get a start before the end of the meet. She was freshened for the return on 10/20 and dominated the group. That win is one that typically can be downgraded - MTO, compact field, off-track, open length win; however she did it the right way and built off the prior foundation. Physically the added ground should not be an issue here and the fitness and conditioning on her side should allow for a top effort, the test will be class, though that test carries to many others in this group without as much upside as this filly.
Aqueduct Race 8
Post Time 2:17 PM CST
There are reason for and against the "logical" trio - #5 TIZZY IN THE SKY (7-2), #6 GERRYMANDER (5-2) and #7 GOOD SAM (5-2) in this race. Of the group, #7 GOOD SAM is preferred, and not because of her local record, that is lazy handicapping, but due to her class and progression with improving figures since the debut - a class B+ debut in her juvenile season. The outside draw should assist in terms of trip as there appears plenty of early speed in the race and outside under familiar rider, I. Ortiz, they can dictate their trip.
As far as knocks, value being the main as 5-2 on GOOD SAM is line and perhaps she will drift. Stablemate GERRYMANDER has run the "faster" races though has done so with favorable (Red Keyword) trips and the recent figure should be taken with a grain of salt as it was a match race against a NY-bred filly called Sunset Louise, that finished lengths behind rivals, #3 VENTI VALENTINE and #4 KNOW IT ALL AUDREY in the Empire Distaff - both at double digits can be considered as underneath use, and spread coverage taking a stance against some favorites.
Form cycle is the concern with TIZZY IN THE SKY as she ran a HARD race under 30-days ago and could have peaked in her form cycle off the two recent top efforts.
Value at 4-1 is the main knock on #2 DR B, the winner of this event last year when the race under WEATHER. She clearly has the races that make her a player though will make her first start off the two month break and not recording a work in October. The rider change also noted and not as much of a concern as Irad sticks with GOOD SAM and primary client, though should require some price compensation today to play; and the 4-1 isn't it.
#1 SADDLE UP JESSIE has improved with the barn and circuit switch and off the current form, the connections are right to take a swing at this level with nothing to lose. Number wise her recent LRL figures stack up to compete though the class rise is significant and form from LRL does not always (more often not) transfer to NYRA.
Aqueduct Race 9
Post Time 2:45 PM CST
#3 DORNOCH is likely to be favored here as it appears the public opinion was blown away from the maiden win (KEE 10/14); and visually, in my opinion was underwhelmed. Yes, he was able to clear by open lengths but was on the left lead and drifting (NO_LINE) sideways through the lane. The pacesetters of which he was one, finished 1-2 and that maiden race has yet to produce a winner or even much improvement from the runners in that field - take a short price, but buyer beware.
Typically this race does not get a lot of credit going into the Derby Trail though there could be some runners in this group (even horses not named Dornoch) to follow and use today where value should be there in the face of a a weaker favorite. #10 PRIVATE DESIRE could get overlooked off the recent running line and outside post. He ran a competitive race on debut and validated himself with a classy (B+) maiden win over this course in September. He returned fresh (perhaps with the Remsen (G2) in mind for the Nashua where he is upgraded after the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE into a slow early pace, the race dynamic with minimal change in running order suiting the pacesetters finishing 1-2 that includes 19.8-1 winner and today's rival, #8 WHERE'S CHRIS.
Aqueduct Race 10
Post Time 3:12 PM CST
Both #2 EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS and #10 ACCRETIVE fit with competitive G2 efforts, though looking at them in today's OptixPLOT, neither horse hold any strong edge in today's field. That should not be confused for the ridiculous statement "the Plot does not like" it is more a factor of value when assessing favorites and shorter priced runners.
Morning line favorite #3 SENOR BUSCADOR also checks the boxes on class, sped and form as he finds class relief to run here. He will also cut back in distance and has been effective at a mile. In terms of Surface/Distance, he is shown as a Q4 Square (Q2 above the ParLine Standard) and that also must be considered on value with a trip from a deeper closer.
On the topic of Plot, incapable of "liking" or "disliking" as someone in the role of a handicapper assessing the data, #11 HOIST THE GOLD has a "dislike" spot - QI/II above the ParLine should make a move, a contender type move into the turn and flatten (Circle) out in the stretch.
Sat December 2nd, 2023 |
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Emily's Analysis
Del Mar Race 1
Post Time 2:30 PM CST
#2 MARGOT'S BOY came into the 10/29 race live second off the layoff though was taken out of his runstyle placed on the lead. As one that does not need the lead and returns to statebred company, he should find the right spot to compete. Pace and trip should move up #6 KERRY GOLD, though he will find a class rise on this circuit.
Del Mar Race 2
Post Time 3:00 PM CST
#3 UNKEPT SECRET is logical as the expected favorite - she stands out over this field on speed figures and in terms of class moving forward with the drop to this level in the current form cycle. #1 IPANEMA GIRL is lighter on numbers though has shown some progression. She will return to this level and coming back from a race shape that was fast early and late. She also had the front wraps added and should be monitored on the track.
Del Mar Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
D'Amato again is well represented with three runners. #3 TURN ON THE JETS has a class edge and won this race dominantly (B+) last year. He is also capable at this 5f distance, a course and distance that upgrades #1 UNCONQUERABLE KEEN as he steps up here. #4 HONEY PANTS might want more ground and returning from the 3 month break could benefit from the race. Similar in terms of distance for #2 LANE WAY as the 5f is a little shorter than his ideal.
Del Mar Race 4
Post Time 4:00 PM CST
#6 DISCO BALL has won at this level going back to last summer and has held his form coming back this year. He was freshened returning last month at SA and turned in a "winning" effort for the level with a WIDE trip.
Del Mar Race 5
Post Time 4:30 PM CST
For the first time in her career #9 GO WITH GUSTO will race strictly against fillies. She showed ability on debut, despite the DQ and validated that form with the BTL effort in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine. She had a subtle trip in the Qatar Mile on the BC undercard and overall form that makes her a player in here. #11 ZONA VERDE has her work cut out from the outside post though showed GRIT breaking her maiden closing weekend DMR summer and returned with a BTL effort in the Surfer Girl (G3) and IMPROVE is projected.
Del Mar Race 6
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
#7 BETTER THAN GOLD brings upside into this second start showing run on debut X_BIAS. #6 IMAGINATION will get a lot of attention for the connections and following the place finish three weeks ago. The 11/11 six horse field was half Baffert including the pacesetting winner, Pilot Commander and today's rival #1 BRITISH ISLES.
Del Mar Race 7
Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Both #5 WEBSLINGER and #8 PROGRAM TRADING are proven on class, surface and distance, the two finishing side-by-side in G1 company back in August at SAR and present logical on that front - and will find the bulk of wagering support as a result.
#7 REDISTRICTING was stepped up to G1 company in just his second career start and off a dominant debut win. He had some excuse in the Belmont Derby (G1) with ground loss and unable to overcome the outside post. A layoff followed and while the allowance in October did not earn the strongest figure, but visually was very impressive. As a lightly raced type, he has potential upside that could put him right on the level of his main rivals.
#1 SILVER KNOTT was "much the best" with the BC Juvenile Turf (G1) win, however he has not shown progression since and others have caught up and passed him. #9 SEAL TEAM could get a lot of attention for the connections and with three wins in four starts since returning from the layoff. Those three wins were earned with favorable trips including the Twilight Derby (G2) last month.
Del Mar Race 8
Post Time 6:00 PM CST
The two non-Cal bred runners, #3 ELIGIO and #4 DES DOIGTS are upgraded from class and current form to compete in this spot. #7 SALSATION raced at this level over this course and distance back in August and while he did not pick up the win that day his show finish and 81 OptixFIG fit on par.
Del Mar Race 9
Post Time 6:30 PM CST
#5 SEA DANCER has run well in all three starts and shows up on this circuit along with the return to maiden company. She post a B OptixGRADE in her 8/13 MSW effort at SAR and looked rushed with the connections taking a shot in the Juvenile Fillies at KYD. #8 GOLDEN GHOST also makes her return on this circuit and off the three month break. She has shown progression race-to-race and legit early speed; she is given a flow upgrade (VF) from all three starts.
#6 POPPY'S JOY did not have a fair shot on debut and appears to have more to show and could also hold some hidden intent. She was entered in the Juvenile Fillies Turf back on 9/9 and was a trainer scratch rerouting here.
Sat December 2nd, 2023 |
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Peter's Simulcast Plays
Fair Grounds Race 1
Post Time 12:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 2
Post Time 1:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 3
Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 4
Post Time 2:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 5
Post Time 2:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 6
Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 7
Post Time 3:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 8
Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 9
Post Time 4:45 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 10
Post Time 5:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 11
Post Time 5:45 PM CST
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1
P 10 Hangover Hill 1 Allbetsonfritz 5 Call Me It
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2
P 1 Boston Bound 2 Dupree Hanover 3 Donttouchmytruck
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3
P 10 Better Than Pride 1 Lets Go Jude 3 Speaker Of Peace
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4
P 6 Reactor Now 1 Lets Tie One On 9 P L Octavius
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5
P 4 Instantaneous 7 Fabrizio 9 Toronto
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6
P 9 Tobins Profit 3 High Voltage Deo 7 Come On Artie
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7
P 3 Smooth Lou 4 Going Fast 5 Easton Beach
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8
P 9 Uncle Frank 2 Jabberwocky 7 Sometime Somewhere
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9
P 1 Points North 2 Cold Creek Queso 7 Funatthebeach
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10
P 3 Stormalong 10 Acapulco Sunburn 4 Boozer
Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 11
P 3 Undrthesouthrnsun 7 I Ama Rocket 1 Seriously Hanover