Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 ISLAND CRUISER turned in a BTL "winning" effort on debut and tough to knock, even as they return as the expected favorite. #12 SINE QUA NON worked four days before the debut and often a sign for Ellis first out and getting a horse prepared to race. The barn can also get horses to improve off a start all around and this one has a move forward noting the debut trip - SLOG, X_FLOW and physically ROUTER build. 

#6 YOLO CALLS makes more sense at the shorter number than #3 ALWAYS SMILING in this spot. Morfin will send out a pair of runners with the preference to #2 BLACKENED over #1 TURQUOISE BIKINI especially at the higher odds, though the barn has been cold - price compensation required. 

#7 ALIGATO is not the "win machine" but looks well placed here with form at this N2 level and upgraded off their current form and figures back at a flat mile with today's expected race shape. They should sit with first run on #1 IRIDEO on that will come running late and does appear intent with the return to Berrios and exiting the long series of graded stakes tries looking for the first win on the year. #9 ALMENDARES is a fine horse though does not hold any edge over his older rivals in here to justify the short price - though capable, to be clear. 

There is a scenario for #3 THE GIANTS CANDY to hold as front end pace advantage in this field. The layoff is in play but does appear intent they are looking for the win for this 5yo gelding and given the layoff history is not the "prep" type and must come out race ready. 

Keying off the two runners returning from BC Friday: #9 STAY HOT was thrown to the wolves off the maiden win right into G1 company on less than a 30-day turnaround. To his credit/class he was able to hold his form pairing an 87 OptixFIG, a number and effort not on that G1 level, though one that should transfer here. #4 LORD BULLINGTON did not standout on paper but stood out PRERACE+ physically on the track. That is something to look for today noting he is the "tout himself" type. 

#7 BOWTIE BOYS makes his belated second start and subtle class change from the productive debut back on 8/11. Fellow second time starter #8 EXPRESS LINE looked to use the debut as a PREP and has TROUBLE at the start and in running. There are some concerns it has taken 133-days to return and also shows up as a gelding and for the tag - those moves come with mixed signals though overall has more to show than he did first out.

The class change could move up #3 AMBIGUOUS and becomes a player if he can transfer his turf numbers back to the main track. His debut he took KICKBACK and will be something for Prat to avoid as they draw inside and outside of RIGHT TO FRONT, a horse with a SLOG pattern. #1 RIGHT IN FRONT was competitive here at DMR on debut and looks intended returning to this course as they were allowed to race protected last month at SA and has a little more adversity than #6 SHARPAZANO. 

#5 WHITEBEAM is proven in G1 company and has that edge over many in this field, including stablemate #3 SURGE CAPACITY. That class edge is even present over the other Brown #10 FLUFFY SOCKS but not by much and seems well-intended here and upgraded as she returns to a course where she has run well over in the past. The intent is further second off the layoff and I. Ortiz making the trip to ride.

#8 QUEEN GODDLESS also holds a G1 win, however that was an off the turf race with a lone trip. She has held her form this year and even recording a B OptixGRADE last month in the Goldikova (G2) coming off the layoff. She has shown some versality in her RunStyle though also must work a trip with today's race shape (many E/EP types) and this post position. 

Trip is key for #12 WAKANAKA from the far outside post. With that said, she has buried form and graded stakes form that stacks up with today's group. The change in distance is also a positive as she is an effective miler, with this distance being her max. 

Like Brown, D'Amato comes in with multiple runners into this race including a new face #1 ELOUNDA QUEEN. She was dominants in Group 3 back in August and had a subtle TRAFFIC trip and less than ideal rider TACTIC- and breaking SLOG for a filly that visually looks to have more early speed. While she overall could have the class edge over stablemate #2 HAMWOOD FLIER, the sophomore filly will be tested here against older and regardless of outcome worth a follow. 

The R. Quinonez can pop with a price and shows up with a pair of FTS in this race. The unknown factor can upgrade both and even giving slight preference to #2 I WANT RUFFLES (15-1 ML) over #5 MISS WORLD PEACE. 

The "pair" trend continues with Miller: #3 CALIFORNIA CODE can be upgraded making her second start in MCL company and cutting back from the 10/22 (next out winner) race; #8 DREAMING OF HOPE was "protected" off the claim on 10/20 racing against winner and returns to maiden company and her debut (9/9) figure is as strong as come of the other "proven" types in this field including, #4 BOSSY BRUIN GAL and #9 CAPO SORELLA. 

#1 MIRANDA RIGHTS was upgraded X_BIAS at KYD on 9/7 and returned last month with a B OptixGRADE in a less than ideal trip giving up first run to the winner resulting in the place result. Casse wheels right back for tis race and in good hands with Prat (seemed to have some options) aboard. #5 MALTESE FALCON brings upside exiting the Twilight Derby (G2) TROUBLE trip last month back to allowance company. He will lost Hernandez to #3 LIL NAS (statebred) but perhaps that was by design after the recent trips trying to change things up and T. Baze has been riding better this season, than he has in quite some time. 

#7 HAWKER also returns from a TROUBLE trip at this level last month. That race was also his first start back in 245-days and to his credit took a step forward number wise with that effort. #8 IRISH PROPHET also returns from that 11/5 common race and upside following a similar second off the layoff pattern and should hold fitness returning here with the WIDE trip and better draw. #6 LAHAINA FLAVOR still has some class questions, though their BTL effort is noted along with the morning line odds and today's race shape that could have them in the mix. 

#8 SILVERSTONE was flying under the radar in the 11/18 common race and turned in a BTL effort that will not have them overlooked here and again has a tough outside post to overcome with not as much price compensation. 

Both #2 ERNIE THE MOOSS and #5 AL HAMMERED were right there side by side for the minors. #7 WATT A HARDT had to deal with traffic while #1 FOX VALLEY CRETE was parked wide and should not have that issue here from the inside.

#1 FOX VALLEY YORK finds some subtle class relief and while he is a juvenile against older his form has held this season and retains Bates as a positive. 

#3 MISTER SLEAZE is preferred over #7 MY FIRST TIME returns from the 11/19 common race. 

#7 ILL TELL YOUR DADDY looked short in the 12/26 common race and should be fit and tough with their early speed in this spot and second of the cycle. #6 FROZEN SHARK has been game back to back weeks and holding his form puts him right back in the mix. 

Juvenile #1 DOWNTOWNLEROYBROWN has been moving forward as of late and the timing off that progress paired with a slight change in class should have him in the right place to compete. #3 U S S ARK needs a big step up to win though in this third start back should continue to move forward and at the big number could get into the mix and also show more early speed. 

#3 AMAZON PRINCESS comes into this race with form that might not be clear on the paper and should offer more value according to the morning line than rival #1 BOOTSY BOMBAY. Value could even hold over #7 LUCKY DOTTIE one that is very logical as an individual at the right level for her abilities picking up a strong driver in Bates though has not raced since early November. 

Most of the field returns from the 11/18 common race and tough to look outside the top three led by #2 LOUS AMAZON and #9 MOPPIES MOOSE. Lack of value with #3 LOUS ENCHANTRESS and #4 CHANGE THE TUNE picking up the minors with longer shots #5 ALLY BABA and HONOLOULOU capable underneath.  

#1 KAGE DANIEL burned money as the favorite in the two most recent starts and could be upgraded with price compensation returning today. Skipping last week perhaps is to their benefit and could also see a change in tactics stalking inside rather than sent to the front, like in those recent starts.

#3 SEE YA WRITE N was dominant again last week and against many of the rivals he will face off against today. #4 PONDA HAWK being one and one that reunites with K. Husted to suggest some intent. #6 CAMMILLS MONEY MAN will make the first start off the claim for team Leonard and has upside off a subtle trip and poor driver tactics last week. 

#1 PADDY MURPHY was the value last week and should hold form here at likely short. #2 MANNY TOO SPECIAL missed last week due to illness and while they have some back races to make a contender though lack of recency is noted. 

#2 JR STRIKE THREE has held his form though has just been slightly overmatched this month and requires the class drop they find here to compete. He will require that class edge as he is a juvenile against older. 

On paper tough to split rivals, #5 DOCTOR CRUISE and #7 MAZIN BLAZIN as they have been knocking heads with each other and hold a sight edge in the group. These two return from a common race on 11/19 with both #3 HEZARENGADE and #6 ASHLEES SILVER GUY, two rivals that showed up in that event and project to hold form here. 

#10 SUPER SHARK will take on something new this season with the outside draw and could be a shorter price as he has been throughout this season. 

Number wise #8 KIZZZMELIKEUMISSME and #9 ONE R ANDIS STAR standout but both must overcome the outside today and have struggled with similar draw and could open up the race to #5 SILVERSHOE CHIXY. She is looking for that first meet win and returns to a level similar to when she took a tough beat as the favorite on 10/29.

#2 GO WITH FLOW finds both a positive change in class coming off a WIDE trip last week and looking to turn the tables on #4 SENORITA MOUSE for the first win this meet. #6 LOOK KIMBO has often struggled to pair up wins and top efforts and something to consider as she returns here off the win and driver change.  

#8 HOLDEN STEADY had buried form giving them a look and near upset on 11/11. The trip was compromised from start to finish creating an excuse on 11/18 and a look right back. 

#4 BAY BRUTE makes a local debut this season and first race of the year. The qualifier last week did what needed to be done and seems live today for the Husted team. Intent also appears in play for #5 FOX VALLEY MONACO with the all around changes returning to HAW. 

#10 MACH POWER struggled from the outside last week and has a similar challenge today with the draw. As a positive they have that start under their belt and find a softer spot here. 

#7 LOVE TAP HANOVER also returns to HAW and going back to 11/11 did not have an ideal trip bottled up along the inside in traffic. 

6-GUSSY’S TRUMP CARD-Just needs a better trip

1-FOX VALLEY CRETE-Inside post might make the difference

8-SILVERSTONE-Outside post but decent form

1-FOX VALLEY YORK-Likely tough with inside draw

3-MISTER SLEAZE-Mostly competitive form lately

6-ROCKIN ROG-Big chance despite layoff

6-FROZEN SHARK-Maybe reaching peak form

1-DOWNTOWNLEROYBROWN-Meets a somewhat easier group

7-I’LL TELL YOURDADDY-Possible the best speed

3-AMAZON PRINCESS-Meeting easier should help

1-BOOTSY BOMBAY-Maybe the rail gives an advantage

4-DRIVIN THE DIXIE-Doubt if Casey took drive just for the fee

2-LOUS AMAZON-On top of her game; beat these last two

4-CHANGE THE TUNE-Beat top pick 3 back; been close since

3-LOUS ENCHANTRESS-Maybe sent to early lead

8-KOA-Meets easier but has to overcome outside post

5-PLAYTOROCK-Could have dead aim late

6-FOX VALLEY MCKEE-Interesting player with driver switch

3-SEE YA WRITE N-Won 3 of last 4 this level

5-CAMMILS MONEY MAN-Claimed from last; may awaken

7-ARTSPIRE-Comes flying late

2-KEY INGREDIANT-Been competitive this level lately

7-JR STRIKE THREE-2yo figures vs older

9-CHECKERSWITHGRANDPA-Badly needed last race

7-MAZIN BLAZIN-Won last two; maybe reaching peak form

5-DOCTOR CRUISE-Always competitive; might get the trip

10-SUPER SHARK-Maybe fastest but starts from tough post

9-ONE R ANDIS STAR-Can lead throughout despite post

4-SENORITA MOUSE-Won last couple; don’t ignore

8-KIZZZMELIKEUMISSME-Back to right level; wakes back up

3-FOX VALLEY TREASON-Always major player this level

5-AMERICA’S FLEET-Seeks second straight victory

7-FRANKIEPARK-Won last time Cordarius drove

2-BAY BRUTE-Might need a race but probably leads off the gate

5-FOX VALLEY MONACO-Meets easiest in a long time

10-MACH POWER-Tough post but easier company