Handicapper Tips & Picks

Morning line favorite, #5 TWO B has come up short at the allowance level and should find pace contention with others in this field including #1 HALF MAGIC and #7 BLACKTECA. Value should land on #2 BOULDERING coming back off a solid close and should have pace to close into as a price alternative to #4 COURTMAN. Recent maiden #3 ANGELIC KNIGHT has shown some quality in limited starts and would not be surprised to see them hold form against winners for the first time. 

While #5 BIKINI BOTTOM fits logically as the favorite, #7 TAP THE KEG ships in and finds class relief on this circuit. In addition, she has been keeping early pace on stronger early paces than BIKINI BOTTOM and seems some intent for this one to ship into this circuit at the same time drop to compete.

Tough to know if the morning line sticks for #1 BOURBON LIFE coming off a TROUBLE_S making a MOVE and GALLOP+ at the higher OC level three weeks ago; #6 MASTEROFHISCRAFT also returning from that race made a RUSH before losing ground and can take back to make a run. #4 CARD TRICK finishing second had a LONE lead and still NO_FINISH and could find more contention up front here to consider as the listed ML favorite. 

Class wise it will be a test to see where #5 TIZZY INDY fits but from a physical standpoint the TURF has been projected for this one for quite some time. 

This is a tough race with many coming back off layoffs and the group as a whole unproven at this allowance condition. #6 BITSY PERFECTMATCH must step up class wise though has a favorable runstyle for today's race shape and has a steady series of works coming back for this event. #3 ENTITLEMENT has the primary class question, though has sneaky form over this course from the maiden races last season. 

There has not been much in terms of intent #8 ACTIVE DUTY for the turf though physically appears a versatile type and has resented kickback at times. The races he exits are all higher race par than today's event. Turf could have been the intent for #9 Z Z'S PRINCE last out and keying off his route races last season he improved speed figures and this would be the time and place he turns in a top effort. 

As far as #10 SOLOMON VANDY he turned in a "winning" effort in a tough photo loss three weeks ago. With that said, he has not shown progression he paired a top from earlier this season and today's event carries a higher race par, this a hidden step up in class. 

#6 PYRENEES has recorded some of the highest figures in the field and recorded those numbers last year as a juvenile. This will be his first start in almost a year and looks to be intent coming back off the layoff here at FG picking up where he left off. 

On debut, #5 CAFE RACER caught the eye and projected to IMPROVE. It took awhile for that improvement given the excessive layoff lines that followed and given that history is the type of horse that must come out race ready.

#1 EARL OF DASSEL also holds some buried form here at FG and appears intent returning with recency in this second start of the cycle. Trip/pace is noted for this runner as he has shown the repeated lack of early speed though will be running on late.

#4 CURLIN GUNNER appeared intended for turf on debut back on 10/29 at CD. While he had to deal with the surface switch, he also came out on the track green and WASTED a lot of energy prerace. He has been given the time and added work (as well as Lasix) to suggest we could see a different horse today. #6 HOPE JOE'S RIGHT physically has a TURF look and with the progression race to race with the two turn foundation could take a step forward in this third start. 

#15 INTERLUDE is sitting on the AE and might have to wait another day but one to keep an eye from return on 11/25, a BTL effort behind the open length pacesetting winner finishing in a blanket for minors.

The "obvious"  runners are listed as the morning line favorites and certainly could get the job done in that role. #1 ISOLATION is the value of the group as she returns here with buried form under similar conditions. 

This race is open to a “new face” and #6 BLOWOUT MOUNTAIN could be that horse. He has been patiently managed since picked up from the June sale working an even 22.1. The placement here is reasonable racing for the $20k and as an AR-bred runner racing in open company he is also eligible for the Arkansas bred bonus with a top three finish. #7 PROFESSIONAL GRADE will actually find a slight step up in class for this event though back in for the tag. To his credit, he has presented speed figure progression with each start and noted contrast to the declining numbers for #2 SANTHECONCRETEMAN looking to turn things around making the class change. #4 LEAD FOOT has the most experience and possible one of the most “raced” juveniles in the crop as he makes his 8^th career start today. To his credit he has moved up on the required drop and should hold plenty of fitness with the foundation and exiting WIDE trips in the most recent starts. 

#2 MAN ON THE MOON plays a big role in the handicapping/race dynamic of this event. His numbers stand out as some of the highest in this group. In addition, his front running style should have him the “speed of the speed” and if others try to run with him it could be to their detriment. Willing to get creative in this spot with #1 CHISHOLM TRAIL returning fresh to OP off the 68-day break. Throughout his career he has been consistent though not often at the right level to compete and dropping to a new low should be right in line with this level. #6 MULBERRY STREET is another that is who his is and nothing of any overwhelming edge in this spot as an individual. What he has on his side is recency and local form. He has some versatility in terms of dictating a trip, something that should be an asset here. 

#6 FULL AUTHORITY returns to OP and some intent for this second start off the freshening. As far as that 11/2 LRL race, his trouble was not overly obvious though did appear to impact the trip and again not too costly as the race appeared a prep. Since then they shipped to OP and has been training steadily and quickly assessing the published works. #1 LAKE RADIO he often has the tendency to break slow and that could come into play with the rail draw. As a race horse he has some versatility to work a trip from on or off the pace and has solid local form and competitive races at the level despite still looking for that first OP win.  #5 SHADOW MATTER will make his belated return in this spot. He was reclaimed by Asmussen back in January and would have been claimed for $40k when he made his next (and most recent start) in January. The placement is honest as they are not looking for the big drop coming back and if someone wants to claim, this is the fair number. The rider Erik Asmussen has limited experience riding and has shown on the track - he must step up in the saddle. #3 BOURBON SPIRIT is likely to be favored and while capable and likely live for the connections, he does not hold any strong edge in this field to justify that number. 

#1 EL MATADOR will get a look in this second start with some changes following the debut. Going into that first start, he worked just 5-days earlier, made a positive appearance on the track and showed interest despite the running line and finishing position after the slow start. He was flattered when the 11/9  fourth place finisher, Mikealicious came back to win a 8f MSW here last weekend, Midnight stormy at MCL $50 at Turfway and others finishing in the money with improvement next out. #7 WARP NINE has the two turn foundation on the dirt and returns here with the 33-day freshening and subtle change in class. He has not quite shown that “winning” effort, at the same time has not run a “bad” race. Connections and trainer B. Cox will send out a pair with the experience edge siding with #8 CHARLESTON. This will be his third start and first stretching out in distance.  

#6 K J’S PISTOL ANNIE returns from the layoff back in similar conditions from last meet. She showed she can bring a winning effort fresh keying off the maiden score on 12/20 as well as compete at this level noting the place and blanket finish on 2/12. #7 BE MY HUCKLEBERRY the only time in her career she was at a level similar to today was the maiden win back on 7/16. She will also return for a claiming tag today and not suspicious as she ran for the $40k last season and more of a move to find her the right level to compete. #8 BETTY JO also showed she could fire fresh breaking her maiden on debut. The effort and number is not one she has been able to run back to and noted at the time last year, the Moquett barn was sending out live and has not been the case to start opening week. With that said, she held her own at this N2 claiming level last year and that is fine enough for the level. 

#5 DIVA TREVA  has a longshot look in this spot as this would be the time and place for her to run back to her top efforts and those races on par to compete here. Coming back off the layoff at Remington park she returned on the turf before shifting to the main track on 11/14 and given the trip/tactic- she was not given the chance to run her race that day. They land here with a local work as well as racing for the tag, though no “giveaway” at this number and for a decent $60k purse.  #8 ROCK STAR PARKING figures the most likely, she is logical proven at the claiming level and with current form in this third start off the bench. #3 LUCY’S CAKES FLY is relatively unproven on the dirt as this will be her third start and the other two on the surface had some excuses attached. Her form, figures and class stack up here that gives her a look to transfer that form. 

#8 KOBLA MAS could be a pretty smart claim for the connections and placement finding the right spot for this one to race on the dirt, which does appear to be his preferred surface. As far as class and speed he does not stand out but does stack up and could be overlooked in this field. Trip should also suit his style as Bejarano will look to make a run from off the pace and the pace should be honest given the complexion of the field and his stablemate, #5 LIFE ON THE NILE returning off the needed freshening. #1 DANCE SOME MO Rosin probably had this starter condition in mind when they ran for the $50k tag last out and took the gamble there would not be any claims. His form and figures fit at this level though must work a trip from the inside. Castillo has picked up some live mounts in limited starts with two wins as the Mikealicious rider as well as scoring on the favorite Royal Meghan for D. Jacobsen. Jacobsen will be represented by #6 KANT BEAT THE ROCK as the barn looks to continue the first week success. This one has been knocking around the level at AQU and wheels right back for this race. Trip is also noted and distance unproven stretching out the two turns. His other route races were run back in California on the turf and did appear to have some distance limitations.

#5 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE is where Castillo lands and looks to be in a live spot returning to OP for Broberg. His current form the starter allowance level has been competitive and should benefit from the subtle distance change to 6f here. #6 SHACKLEFORD STRONG showed some class early on in his career, though was stymied by layoffs and since coming back in 2023 has been a consistent runner and finding his top form as of late. He will show up off the two month break, a break that was not necessarily planned noting a vet scratch from a $10k starter sprint back on 11/4 at CD. That scratch paired with current form suggests intent as if this one was going the wrong way, they could find a claiming race and can almost guarantee there would be takers. Suppose the only knock on #1 COLONEL VARGO is form as he come off two top figures (and track/flow aided wins) in this form cycle and again wheels back in three week for a third start in just over a month. Some positive intent could be projected as they again find a spot to race protected and remain sprinting – trainer scratch from a 12/9 AQU 9f $10k starter allowance.

#2 SILVER PROSPECTOR is in the top spot with value compensation only. He is capable though one that tends to need everything his way to win and gives up recency for this spot where he fits this condition to race protected – a similar conditioned play resulted in the most recent win on 2/11. #5 TONKA WARRIOR is the type that requires precision timing and ride and might have found his fit with Gallardo. The pair return today after a win over this course back in May and fresh from the CBY turf stakes in June finishing in a blanket at the wire. #1 COMMANDPERFORMANCE fits logically here though have to wonder why the connections would remain at the allowance level after clearing the N2 last month at 9f with the Tinsel Stakes right there.

#11 DOUBLE CROWN is cross entered for the Tinsel Stakes on Saturday and tough to guess which spot they take as both have positives and negatives. His current form stacks up with this field though must overcome the outside post and on Saturday, Santana has the call. Santana is aboard #8 FULL SCREEN as he is one of the first Casse shippers this week coming in from California.  

#6 CAPTAIN JACK is all systems go as he makes his second start off the claim for Contreras, key angle, and intent back in for the tag protected last month. As far as the 11/11 race, lack of intent was noted but also the poor start that had him further back than probably they wanted. #12 LORD GRANTHAM also looks live for the connections in this spot. Not only is the barn sending out live, this one fits at the level off the layoff and returning from the traffic trip show finish last month. Bejarano aboard LORD GRANTHAM will be replaced by Zimmerman, and he is not without a mount sticking with #11 MASTER OF ARMS. As an individual he is fairly common and coming into this race should hold his form as the connection take another class drop still looking for the first win since the claim going back to June 2022. #9 IMMORAL has come up short on the win end under similar conditions though has found his way into the minors and no reason why he cannot once again. 

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