Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 TRUST ISSUES turned in a BTL effort on debut in the show finish after a TROUBLES+ and strong CLOSE. 

#1 LOUISIANA LIBERTY comes into this race with progressive form in this third start off the layoff. In addition to the improving form, she will find the class relief she has been looking for and considerable softer condition than the two most recent stakes races. 

#1 AGENT KOSTA might not be the "most likely" in this race but as an individual he stacks up with the others and could present upside off the layoff. His career high figure was recorded first out and the two races that followed earned subtle "flow upgrades" and were run on shorter rest. 

#7 UNION RUN was BTL and might have even been "much the best" on 10/5 in the second place finish. The ride had him compromised throughout and off that race the connections stepped him up in circuit to CD where he was caught WIDE throughout unable to overcome the outside post. The off track and primarily slow early pace place against him on 11/17 at HS Indy left with too much to do making up ground in a race without change in running order for the top three finishers. 

#4 HAIG POINT returns after losing the rider at the start just two weeks ago. There could have been intent on the day returning to Turfway where he has run well in prior seasons and off the 38-day freshening. HIs runstyle should fit today's race shape with tactical stalking speed to sit off the projected pacesetters, #2 BOITANO (preferred over) #7 DRIFTWOOD. 

#1 IOYA AGAIN is upgraded on the class drop and trainer intent for this spot. He was claimed back in September here at Hawthorne and protected in the first start off the claim at FG. Not only was the intention questionable on the day the X_WIDE trip gave them little chance to get into the race. The class change should also assist this runner in terms of trip as he could sit closer than recent races when well off the early pace. The early pace in this race should prove a dynamic for him to make his off the pace run. 

#11 SAVE THE MISCHIEF earned a follow off a BTL debut at a time the barn was cold at CD. They returned in the 10/19 turf sprint, a race with minimal change in running order and this one was compromised by that dynamic, wide trip and rider tactics making an aggressive move in the lane. They returned in a route race on 11/11/ showing early speed before faltering and could be part of the reason they come back to the one turn here - along with the rider change and blinker addition. 

#1 YES DAY is a weak favorite returning from a flow aided win just 15-days ago. Some value concerns could follow with #2 EKATI FLATTER in against open company and a rougher spot when she faced open on 10/25 at her home HS Indy track. 

#6 THUNDERS ROCKNROLL should be in the right spot, time and place to compete. She will find class relief off her most recent starts and also with her early speed could present a front end pace advantage.

#4 AALIYAH EZRI has buried form under similar conditioned races from the summer series. She will return here in her second start off the claim, the change in circuit and also cut back to a one turn sprint for the first time in a long time. As far as #7 LAURA'S CHARM, her current form and figures stack up well to compete at this level. The surface switch back to the synthetic is the price concern with the ML number as her three efforts recorded softer numbers than her other form at the time. 

Lobo has been sending out live this meet and that could present upside for #8 RAPPING WISH as she makes her belated debut here. There has been some prior placement from last meet starting with a gate scratch on 1/25 to suggest intent for this circuit. After that late scratch she was entered again on 2/23 when unable to draw in off the AE at this same $30k MCL condition.

The class drop off the long layoff creates some reservations with #9 K'ANTHEIA. Her two MSW starts earlier this year both competitive with the BTL on debut and shown finish at KEE with both races recording the higher numbers in this field and the horse to beat off those figures alone. #5 KEKIONGA might have had some trouble off camera on debut and noted as has been off nearly a year and from a solid productive debut back in January at Gulfstream Park during the Championship meet. There could be some concern returning here off that near year layoff and right in for the maiden claiming tag. At the same time, the drop might have been the plan all along, tough to know.  

The class drop seems like the right move for #4 WINSTON WOLF. He was not on the level of the higher allowance company following his debut and since has shown progression race-to-race in claiming company. #9 DAVID'S  TUITION also has held his own in N2 claiming company in this form cycle with some adversity going back to the TROUBLE (and against the WEATHER impacted track conditions) at KEE and a flow upgrade from the 11/23 CD start. 

#1 RIVEIERE and #3 WISH list present solid form and even slight class edge exiting the NYRA races and that could be a slight edge over morning line favorite, #5 VANISHED as she has had little excuse as of late and come up short as a short number. #6 ZAPPERA also exiting the NYRA circuit could present upside as a lightly raced type that showed run on debut against the flow and returning fresh off the layoff for the new and solid local connections