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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu December 28th, 2023

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Emily's Analysis

Gulfstream Park Race 1

Post Time 11:10 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 OKAY FINE has recorded figures in line with #3 GREY PRINCESS has been competitive under similar conditions with a recency edge and should be higher of the two. OKAY FINE recorded a B OptixGRADE at a slightly higher level back in October over this synthetic course and route distance. The 11/17 race has been productive and slight upgrade given her trip and race shape. #6 BATTLING BUBBLES is also logical back at the $12.5k level, a level where she recorded a B Grade in February over this course sand distance. 

#1 HUGE G, the long four-year-old will make a belated return and might be in tougher with this group though brings some upside and potentially intent for the connections. She will make a barn change, a barn that can pop at time at prices. Her effort on 8/12 can be upgraded as she broke in a tangle and sent into a solid pace on the lead before losing ground and clipped heels when backing up in hand. #5 STARSHIP SIGRUN has a pattern of gate issues though the class change and race shape that could find her more competitive in this spot than in prior races. 

Gulfstream Park Race 2

Post Time 11:38 AM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 MAYBE MAGIC has shown improvement race to race, though number wise not on the MSW level she has been racing at prior to today. The class drop should move her up naturally and on par with today's group. 

Gulfstream Park Race 3

Post Time 12:07 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 KISS ME HARDY fits as an individual, though does not have any overwhelming edge in this group. The trip from the rail at the one turn distance is also an unknown as she makes her local debut and first start off the layoff. 

Recency sides with #5 SILVIA V'S HEROES as she wheels right back in this second start off the layoff and with class relief. The change moves her up and is one that holds form over the GP main track and one turn distance. The change in class also moves up #4 JELLICLE KATZ and could be overlooked for the connections in a spot where she fits. 

Gulfstream Park Race 4

Post Time 12:36 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 ELLIE'S RUNNER wheels back for this second start with some changes from the debut earlier this month. Class wise she will find a slight change as a positive though also the distance for this longer bodied type to take to the added ground. Trip wise she broke SLOG and from the outside took back to try and save ground and was in hand most of the running showing interest late behind perfect winner. 

#9 SHE CAN SCAT showed some run in her first two starts at Hawthorne and projecting to IMPROVE off the debut she was unsettled (WASTED) in her second start and was freshened for the GP meet. The route off the bench in October appeared a prep and was upgraded with the WIDE trip X_FLOW on 10/29 and to her credit improved at this level on 12/7, an overall effort in line with #5 CAJUN ANTHEM, one that projects to be shorter of the two today and much shorter than last out. 

Gulfstream Park Race 5

Post Time 1:05 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This event could see a move to the Tapeta, a surface that #1 PAWKY holds experience over. Her races on the surface have been competitive and sit on par keeping in mind those prior races at a higher level. The drop to race for the tag is not a concern after she show finish last out in stakes company as she broke her maiden at the $35k MCL level. She has not run for the tag since appears the connections just need to place her where she can compete. Stablemate #5 MY LION races protected as she makes her first start off the claim and since August and a lateral class move to run in this event. 

The shift from the turf to the Tapeta could also benefit #4 MINT EDITION one that has some buried synthetic form and figures that fit in line with today's race par. 

Gulfstream Park Race 6

Post Time 1:34 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 SECRET LOVER makes sense as the favorite as he has been consistent on this circuit number wise and finds class relief to race at this level for the first time at the end of the season.

#6 TEAM TRAVIS caught a tougher group in his debut just over two weeks ago. The class change and timing could suggest intent (along with the rider change to Lopez) for this second start. #7 KHOPESH is a little sneaky in here for their second start. The debut earlier this month at WO might not look like much "on paper" though this one after a SLOG made a sneaky CLOSE and GALLOP+ after the wire showing more run than it may appear in the running line and finishing position. As a FL-bred they do not have to race for the $50k, a move that with a win would open up protected conditions going forward. The barn does not win a lot of races at GP as some reservation though something that should create price compensation. 

Gulfstream Park Race 7

Post Time 2:03 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 FRIAR TUCK has been competitive under similar conditions and coming back off another layoff could have intent for Cibelli. The barn has sent out just a few starters so far this meet with one winner, Inveigled ridden by I. Ortiz. #7 SOUPER SUCCESS will make his first start for a tag since the claim back in January. Winless since that time in eight starts, the drop makes sense looking for the win and is in for a reasonable $35k price - the claim for $20k. Class is the main concern with #6 EXPROMPT as he takes a rise off most of the races this year for Campbell, though has back class that would support him in this event. 

Gulfstream Park Race 8

Post Time 2:32 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Loza, Jr. is a smaller outfit though has had success and #2 K. C. Chief returns off the layoff in a spot where they can compete with the race moved to the Tapeta. D'Angelo is not the barn one will catch a price with as they show up with #4 SWING LOW off the claim and return to this circuit. The barn has had the bulk of their success this meet at the claiming level and this one has surface versatility with local experience. #6 SPACE LAUNCH also returns off the layoff and off the claim for live connections. On the turf, they move up off their form, though is an unknown on the Tapeta paired with the mile (8.32f) distance. #7 RED FLAG ALERT is upgraded on the Tapeta and could fall into a drip with the draw similar to the 10/15 race. 

Gulfstream Park Race 9

Post Time 3:02 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 SALACIOUS has some upside off the first two starts. He caught at strong race for the level on debut, a race that given the sprint distance appeared to be a prep. There was improvement for the second start and some adversity with early trouble and ran on late with the top two racing forwardly placed finished together at the wire. #4 ALWAYS BE SMART created his own issues breaking slow and making contact with the gate on debut. He showed interest through overall visuals that suggest this grindy type runner will appreciate more ground/router. Weaver has sent out some live runners this meet and signals intent with #9 TEAM CAPTAIN for this second career start. Lynch also has sent out live runners this meet and has had success this month with maiden runners as they send out #8 MYTHIC PERFORMANCE though those others follow a different pattern than this one and could be an underlay in this race.