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Thu January 18th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Fair Grounds Race 1
Very tough N2 to start the card with many, many that have been stuck at this condition for quite some time. #7 LONE STAR MAX comes into this race with current form in this cycle pairing B- OptixGRADE including the most recent start racing above condition in N3L.
Three runners, #2 MARVIN'S POSSE, #4 MYSTERIOUS SPIRIT and #9 CROSSING IRIS exit a common race on 12/7 in for the higher $12.5k tag -- all three are similar and can upgrade the higher of the group on the board as overall there is not much between them.
#8 LACEY'S STAR returns from the highest last out figure with the maiden win on 1/5. She will be tested to hold her form and repeat on shorter rest as she appeared well-intended in that race just under two weeks ago.
Fair Grounds Race 2
Perhaps there is some improvement for #8 NERVY for this second start. He debuted back on 12/3 and was very reluctant to load, very fractious, nearly flipping in the GATE and was not checked out 🙁 prior to the start. Claimed out of that race, he has worked since and returns under similar claiming price.
As far as the new faces there are a group of FTS and #7 OUR HEATSEEKER one that will trade class for recency as they make the first start off the layoff a first for a claiming tag. #4 SKINNY BOBBY did not move up as much with the class drop in the two more recent starts. There could be given a slight pass for 1/4 as they lacked aggressive handling in a race controlled on the front end by the winner with minimal change in running order.
Fair Grounds Race 3
Post Time 1:45 PM CST
#3 LUNA VIEJA as the favorite could present a pace advantage with their early speed. Overall form has been competitive at the starter allowance condition and coming back from a tough ball and call with the DQ last month. #5 MIDNIGHT RAID will get another try at this level with some consideration given to the most recent start followed up with the 417-day layoff.
#4 LAUGHINALLTHEWAY will likely have to improve number wise off the debut to win, though a number first out that stacks up with many in this field and others at shorter ML's. In terms of the debut, he was dominant/B+ and that could carry on the step up to take on winners.
Fair Grounds Race 4
Post Time 2:15 PM CST
#8 SLICK AND FAST will give up recency as he returns to FG and the main track. HIs overall form fits and especially his debut number and effort, the only start sprinting on the dirt. #10 RUNLIKECARL has some run and was showing progress leading into the 12/1 event at DeD. That day was poor weather and track conditions and could get back on track here and at the one turn distance.
#6 SAFARINAS was very dominant on debut and that goes beyond just looking at the running line and open length win. He showed multiple gears after the SLOG. That type of effort should see him step up and compete against winners, however this is a tougher spot as he lands here against older established foes.
Fair Grounds Race 5
Post Time 2:45 PM CST
#6 BRENNAN'S HONOR has some recency and has been trying to get to the TURF since the October debut. They have been pointed here and under similar conditions noting a scratch from 12/16. #3 GLACIAL POWER showed run on debut and had intended to return to the turf at SAR without much luck with one race rained off and a vet scr on 8/12.
First time starter #10 HEN HEN was also looking for a turf sprint. HEN HEN worked in company with older MSW debut winner Champlin (1/15) back on 12/18 and looked to get something out of that drill losing ground on that rival early (won 6f wire to wire) and made a move to get in contact and in front by then end of the drill.
#4 SUMMER IN ADRIANE turned in a solid effort on debut though came up short as the favorite finishing in a BLANKET on 12/15. Intent was to run back at a mile on 1/13 unable to draw in and they will take this spot instead. The distance is also noted for #11 EXEMPTION as they make their debut here and had been entered twice in turf routes this season and without luck both times unable to draw in off AE.
AE runner #13 GO CAPTAIN is worth a mention as he had an EX - EXCUSE on debut at Oaklawn.
Fair Grounds Race 6
Post Time 3:15 PM CST
#7 UNION MIST and #8 FASTA LAVISTA BABY return from the 12/21 common race finishing together at the wire though neither has shown much improvement in their races and that could open the door for others in this field especially on the win end.
#5 LIUZZA should move up with that start under her belt and with the added ground and caught the eye training last summer suggests she has more to show. She and #9 VELVET KISSES return for their second starts from the 12/16 debut run under heavy rains, poor track conditions and visibility.
#1 PRETTY ANA makes her debut here and could have been waiting for the start of the sophomore season as well as the route of ground. She was training briefly last year though given time to grow up and her training has been consistent as of late. She should be fit as can be and given some confidence with the breeze in company on 1/6 going better of pair. Stablemate #3 ANGEL OF FAITH must show more though has shown progression with each race and has the two turn foundation as she returns here where if she is going to show her best this is the time.
Fair Grounds Race 7
Post Time 3:45 PM CST
#9 REMUNZEL was working well leading up to her debut and the BTL effort was no real surprise. She will make some changes here with the surface and distance though off her visuals, she should not have any issues there.
Fair Grounds Race 8
Post Time 4:15 PM CST
Fair Grounds Race 9
Post Time 4:45 PM CST
#7 RAGTIME LADY has shown progression with each start this meet and comes in with the highest last out figure. #2 MARTYNA'S JOY ran a solid race on debut, though she and the winner both ran on from a similar off the pace position.
Fair Grounds Race 10
Post Time 5:15 PM CST
#5 LIL CHILLY was a trainer scratch from the LA Futurity where they had considered as the spot for her to make a debut. They picked a turf race on 1/1 instead and should be fit from that event where she stalked outside and behind the eventual front running winner, Army Day one that appeared well intended bet down as the favorite from an 8-1 ML.
Trainer Davis, Jr has a pair in this race: #3 ABOUT TO SET SAIL has has some adversity in her first two starts and despite those issues has shown run and can improve with a clean trip; FTS #7 BETSY'S ALL IN looks as fit and ready as can be off the works and will see how she fits on class here. Similar in terms of conditioning for #2 HOLY MOLY SHIPMAN coming in for her debut for M. Silva.
#6 SISTER ELLA will find a change in class as she makes her first start against statebred company. With that said, the two races she returns from lack much of a race par change and must step up should that hold.

