Handicapper Tips & Picks

This race could be more competitive then the morning line favorites, #2 ROSE DARLING and #8 OLD FASHIONED GIRL, as certainly capable types.

#3 FROSTY TALE (longshot) is exiting higher race par events and has shown intent to run here this season. She was entered in a 8f MCL $30k event unable to draw in on 12/30 and seems intent off the layoff and drop in claiming tag from that prior scheduled race. #9 QUEEN LEXI (value) has back numbers on par and current form this season with upside remaining at the MCL level. The MSW placement has played a role in her race record at this point. She had TROUBLE_S on 1/10 chasing a moderate/SLOW pace where the top two both class droppers finished together at the wire. She will return from a higher $50k MCL event, a shift from #5 NURSE CAROLYN running back under similar $15k MCL conditions on the day.

#9 KATIE GOT LUCKY (contender) turned in a B OptixGRADE, a winning effort for the level back on 12/2. She was not as effective in the 12/23 outcome making a WIDE MOVE against the dynamic. #6 OH POLLYANNA (value) finds similar class relief as she makes her third start this season exiting the same common races. She has held her form and slight improvement that should transfer naturally with the class change and has the overall class edge to #3 IN A PEACH picking up a rider change along with the drop. 

#4 LUCKY ANA should sit as the controlling speed (Q1) in this race. She was a flow upgrade from 12/13 though tends to run on that every other pattern. On her best day she has recorded figures in line with #1 SATISFIED one that comes back from a B OptixGRADE on 1/3 and blanket finish just ahead of #7 SPLIT DECISION. 

#2 DALTON'S LOVE (exotic) reunites with Bermudez, a rider that is familiar with this runner and can move forward in this second off the layoff - a pattern from TP last season. There should be some pace to chase with stablemate #8 ANA in the field one that one her best day fits with this field though overall does not present any edge. 

#3 A REAL HERO remains protected in this second start off the layoff and with a positive distance change stretching back out to a route of ground. She should offer value over #7 TALK RADIO both earning B- OptixGRADE in the 12/22 common race. #4 ON A TOUR turned in a BTL effort in her return on 12/30 and is a lateral change (par) for this starter allowance. 

#3 ONEPARTICULARHARBOR made a CLOSE into a "Snowflake" last month and finds a "Sun" under similar N2 conditions. Today can be taken as a slight step up from that event, though a drop from the prior higher N2 events last year. Asmussen has just four starters at TP in 2024 picking up their first win on 1/18 in an MCL event with L. Machado. 

#12 REMEMBERING was showing progression last summer and had TROUBLE, NO_PUSH at KEE in October and projected to IMPROVE. She returned last month off the two month break and with traffic on the day should step up here and should hold some value off the recent running lines paired with the outside post. #4 JANEY CREED also showed run and BTL though did have pace to run at and benefit from a similar Fast early pace in both HS Indy starts.

#6 BEFRIENDED (weak favorite) is likely to be favored once again and returning from the common race on 12/27. She ran find on the day, a bit one paced/PLODDY and finished in a BLANKET at the wire with #1 OUR GIRL FLINT. She was able to CLOSE into a VF/Very Fast early pace, a pace to present an upgrade to #8 ARGAN holding as the BOS that day. While that group returns here, today's event holds a higher OFR. 

The change in class is in play for #10 EXTREMELY GRUNTLED some relief from the recent two starts at Oaklawn Park and not on that level appears the reason McPeek will ship in here and hope to catch the right group. #2 RYBAKINA had a tough SLOG/TROUBLE_S start on debut. She should benefit from the debut last month and from the added ground/STRETCH. 

Morelos is looking for the first Turfway win since 2013 though could have a chance here with #6 LAST CHANCE DANCE first off the claim. This filly was competitive on 11/30 and compromised with a change in tactics from the outside post on 12/27.

#10 BRISBANE ROAD has run some of the higher figures in the field and those numbers buried in her form. This timing could be right coming off the layoff and back with Burgos, a rider that has had success this meet and for this barn.

#8 ALLINTHECALL has shown progression in this form cycle though faltered (NO_FINISH) with a PERFECT trip last month. The change in class makes sense in this case and should have no excuse just must show up today.

#1 MIDWAY MIRACLE was racing above condition on 12/13 and had a legit EX_EXCUSE from the start and put in a sneaky CLOSE. The this one has a documented pattern of gate issues and will look for some of that to improve here in the second start of the meet and added ground. The pace scenario should be honest and on current form brings a similar closing kick to #8 CALRISSIAN one that is rerouted to run in this spot after they were entered and unable to race last weekend at Oaklawn due to the cancellation. 

Given the recent layoffs and less than ideal outcomes, #1 SONG PARODY could be placed in the right spot and to regain some confidence. She has been working consistently over this course and picks up a live rider and the rail where she looks to avoid issues early and get to the lead. 

#8 MS TEMPTATION has a win under similar conditions here last meet and must run for the tag in the first time in a long time. That change comes reluctantly though could be what is needed and can move up in this second start of the cycle. 

#7 DIVINE CHARGER is logical; she was a bit one paced/PLODDY last month though did have to deal with the outside post and WIDE trip as a result. The class change is noted for #10 SOUPER EXPLOSIVE shipping in for Casse though overall she has not shown much improvement, continues to have some gate issues and likely to get attention here, especially for the connections. The value concerns should be noted and carried to #11 AALIYAH EZRI. 

#1 NO BODY LOVES ME has suffered ground loss in both starts, the draw on debut and carried X_WIDE earlier this month. That should be avoided from the rail and should show more tactical speed keying off the debut effort and the significant class drop today. 

The class drop moved up #7 BAYTOWN BAMA GIRL on 1/10 and comes back from the WIDE trip wheeling right back and projects to be much shorter here. The class drop was scheduled for #9 ROYAL ITCH entered and scratched from the 1/10 common race and from a subtle trip back in August, their debut. Both #8 SEAU N'TAP (rider upgrade) and #12 LINDSAY will find class relief today but is a lateral change in par.