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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu January 25th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 3

Post Time 1:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 MUNCLE turned in a BTL effort on debut and had adversity. They lunged out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and lacked a trip (TACTIC-) in a race shape with minimal change in running order unable to show their best on 1/4. The BTL debut effort and overall IMPROVE visuals from three weeks ago (went off shorter than the others in that 1/4 common race) should have them sitting on a top effort here. 

Fair Grounds Race 4

Post Time 2:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 LEGALLY LUCKY appears logical based on the back numbers from 2022 that stack up strongly on par. This will be the second start off the layoff and finding considerable class relief from the recent sprint at Oaklawn.

Longshot #1 MARMO MOON is a long time maiden though a recent MCL participant giving them another look at the right level for their abilities. This marks the third start off the layoff and returning to the route distance where they have been more effective and can present upside off the TACTIC- TROUBLE trip two weeks ago. 

Fair Grounds Race 5

Post Time 2:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 KOBLA MAS lands here after the recent weather and cancellations at Oaklawn with this one needing a race and could be intended for this race to come off the turf, though has surface versatility. Going back to 12/15 he appeared well intended, however compromised by the race shape and taken well off the pace (TACTIC-) and left with too much to do when putting in the late CLOSE. 

Fair Grounds Race 6

Post Time 3:15 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 EARL OF DASSEL showed his class closing into a SLOW/Slow Early pace on 12/15 with a BTL effort making a MOVE through TRAFFIC. That could be necessary here with an unknown race shape with many making changes for this race that could put pressure on projected favorite, #2 EMPIRE'S BEST. 

Turfway Park Race 5

Post Time 6:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 RETROSPECT presents upside from the first two starts at ELP last summer. She has been given time to mature further and has consistent works coming into this race.  Longshot #6 A DOLLAR A DAY can IMPROVE off the 12/30 start and could get in the mix at a big number. She has the benefit of the local experience and showed run after a TROUBLES+ making a WIDE MOVE. She has back numbers that fit in or not far off many of the more "obvious" in this field.

Turfway Park Race 6

Post Time 7:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 DANSEUR D'ORO returns from a complete EX - EXCUSE with the obvious TROUBLE+ as the favorite on 12/27. Her prior effort on 12/8 with the game (B) place finish supporting and playing a role in the public support. In both efforts this season, she was SLOG and could be a reason for the rider change today looking for her to return to days of showing more tactical speed. 

#1 MORE THAN A DIVA presents a legit threat with a return to a top effort. She will return to Turfway where both efforts last season stack up on par for today's race. Both of those efforts in for the claiming tag and has been protected since making the change today a more logical and less concerning "drop" placing here where she can compete. 

Turfway Park Race 7

Post Time 7:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The debut effort from #11 GALLERYGAL could see her step up from the MSW level into this spot to compete against winners. 

#6 CATHOLIC GAL returns from the freshening and some class relief as she makes her second start in against winners. There appears some intent with the placement around ONE_TURN and for this meet. She was scheduled to race here back on 12/8 and takes this spot instead for a sophomore debut return.