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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu February 8th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson
#8 TEMPER TANTRUM is upgraded as he makes his second start off the layoff and key class DROP returning from the 1/20 event. Tough to get an assessment on the pace scenario as it sits pre-scratch, though the early pace projects to be honest enough for #7 SEVEN CHANNELS to work a trip. 

Fair Grounds Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 SHELLI'S ANGEL has a longshot look in this event keying off her form from prior seasons. She has yet to run a "winning" race at this level, though going back in her form those events carried a much higher race par than today. 

Fair Grounds Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 MIDNIGHT RAID projects to IMPROVE off the visuals (MOVE, TRAFFIC) on 1/18, his first race back off the 417-day layoff. It is encouraging off the effort overall and with the connections wheeling right back in three weeks and remaining protected. His numbers prior to the long break support him as an individual with figures and class on par. 

Fair Grounds Race 9

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 PERRINS ran a competitive race at this conditions last March recording a BTL effort. He will make his second start off the layoff (a strangely run race on 1/13) and coming back from a sneaky TRAFFIC, TROUBLE trip and less than ideal handling (TACTIC-) something to give Lanerie a chance to redeem today. 

Turfway Park Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Upgraded from 1/27 with the WEATHER conditions racing in the rain: #7 KIT CAN RUN was caught X_FLOW and should have pace to run at given the projected pace dynamic here; #10 LADY HAMILTON was unprepared at the start (GATE, V_SLOG) and compromised her trip and chances in the process. 

Turfway Park Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 VINO ROSATO has been long looking for the DROP she finds in this spot. Given the running lines and finishing positions, she has shown more run than it appears "on paper" and should find the MCL level right for her abilities.