Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 1 Always A Catch 9 Premier Elsa 6 Crafty Crystal

T 2 Socially Distanced 5 Looks Like Game On 1 P L Quinella

P 4 Splash Of Pink 8 Onlythegooddieyoung 7 Ethel

T 5 Southwind Caeser 4 Magnificent Seven 3 Spicy Red Head

P 9 Beth 5 Red Dirt Flash 6 Starbetta

T 5 Prince Of Sussex 9 Memo 2 Stella Alpha

P 2 Wry 7 Speaker Of Peace 5 High Voltage Deo

T 9 Jayport Roadrunner 4 On The Ropes 6 Rittson

P 1 Huntress Shes Got It All 5 Som Much More

P 7 Raptors Won 6 Powered By Mach 3 Two Pistol Annie

P 5 Western Wish 3 Need To Breathe 9 Snow Shark

#4 NO NANNETTE NO comes into this race with buried form. She was competitive in both December starts and coming back from the 1/19 event where she can IMPROVE. The trip had her compromised caught WIDE and made a CLOSE in hand (NO_PUSH) playing a role in the outcome as she was unable to show or give her best on the day. 

#2 SPOILED ROTTEN must turn her form around though has had some excuses and should be paired with price compensation to supplement that projection of reversal. She was making a lateral move to this circuit on 12/29 and had TROUBLE_S that followed fist off the claim two weeks ago and wheels right back and back to the level she was claimed and lower race par than the two prior starts this season. A turnaround in form is also required for #5 DOCS SEVEN as she makes a local debut. Her effort back in October at FanDuel stacks up on par, though did break slow before making that late run and something to consider as she does project to be one of the shorter numbers in this field based on the ML though could drift up from that assignment given some of the others in this field.

#9 VARTON could be the “speed of the speed” though has run her faster races and most competitive races when “LONE” and might not find that trip in this field with #4 AWESOME BIRDIE and #6 KOALA in the field, two mares that have form and flow upgrade from their most recent starts into this event.

#7 RIGHT TRAPPE used a similar drop to improve last season winning in her seconds tart of the meet. She will find considerable class relief for this spot though not necessarily that suspicious of a drop given the race par and purse she was racing at and competitive over the summer at TDN. Remaining at the sprint distance is the bigger concern as trip becomes required at this shorter distance. 

Both #1 PENZIG and #2 DIFFERENTLY return from the 1/7 common race, a race that was significantly DELAY’ed due to track conditions and the rest of the card was cancelled after that race. PENZIG had some TROUBLE_S and made the late MOVE (and GALLOP+) for place; while DIFFERENTLY had to make an early X_WIDE RUSH into a DUEL and into a fast (X_FLOW) pace giving her an upgrade into this second start. 

#9 PADDY GAL will find class relief and looks to ship in with intention for Watkins. She will also cut back to a sprint, likely to show her early speed given the connections and assertive rider, H. Hernandez, aboard. She should also present value over #10 SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL one that has had many chances though to be fair one of her better efforts and figures was over this course (fast dirt) last March, the second career start in MSW company.

Recency and trip could be hurdles for #11 MISS ANALYZED from the outside post and first start in 90 days with limited published works though otherwise fits at this level and in with today’s group.

#5 FULL AUTHORITY is logical as the favorite. He comes back from a WIDE trip in December and the connections scratched from a Muddy day on 1/6 when entered back at the $30k level and appears with the timing for this 7yo they can place him where he can compete. He has enough tactical speed to establish position and with the primary pacesetters #11 CREEKMORE and #12 MYSTERY MAN drawn outside in this full field.

#1 BABA’S BOY appeared to have intent for this meet shipping in on opening week and has been waiting in the wings for a race since. The barn will cut back to a sprint and the route-to-sprint move has been used in the past and did move this runner up. The 12/8 race did produce one next out winner with Colosi (5^th) coming back to win at 66-1 on 1/26 and others that improved in their next start.

#9 WYFIRE has races on his best day that make him just as logical returning to those efforts and overall form in line with #6 BABY BOOMER likely higher of the pair. WYFIRE had a TROUBLE trip on 1/6 and upgraded when entered last week (worked the next day) in a higher conditioned starter allowance with the connections deciding to take this spot instead – Vazquez named that day retains the call here.

#11 VIOLENT RIVER should be in the right time and place to clear the maiden condition. His buried form from the MSW races last year and sophomore figures fit on par and at the time looked to require the class drop that was not provided until this year. He caught a tougher group coming off the 280-day layoff on 12/30 and first start for the barn also had the front wraps added. The rail draw paired with a SLOG did them no favors and finds the change today where this one does appear more comfortable racing outside horses. As a logical type he presents value over #12 CHROME CANDY one that finds a lateral change in class drop the races at RP and overall must IMPROVE.

#5 LIGHT HORSE HARRY will find some subtle changes coming back for this third start. He was upgraded with the drop for the second start two weeks ago, though gave up position (TACTIC-) after showing some early speed and unable to hold or improve after. They will show back up with a rider change and the blinkers on expecting Bowen to be more assertive right from the jump. #2 DANCIN ROCKET will also wheel back from that 1/26 common race over a drying out race track. While he does not hold any edge or upside in this field, he is one of the older horses that has some established form and can improve off the recent race and stick around for a share at double digits and could be higher on the board with similar form to #7 MY BROTHER MIKE one that will get more public attention today than two weeks ago.

#13 FASTENED could present some upside with the class change and as a lightly raced type though taking on older and needs both racing luck to draw in and from the outside. 

Both #6 KING PEANUT and #7 WILLOW CREEK ROAD are much better than their return efforts back on 1/6. The two hold upside from their races last season with speed figures and class that makes them contenders. Those two should present value with that running line sitting on top of their PP’s and with #10 LOCHMOOR in the field. LOCHMOOR is a quality, capable type, though has his challenges coming back off a new top in this second start off the layoff and had to work to get the win. While some regression could sit in even with a top effort he must work a trip from the outside in this full field and off the pace runstyle.

#2 ONE TEN STADIUM was in the right spot and timing to compete on 1/6 though the SLOG had him stuck against the track profile and can be upgraded all around this afternoon. His stablemate #4 MAN IN THE CAN has won under similar statebred allowance conditions in prior seasons with class and speed that fits at the level. He has some further hurdles at the shorter distance though primarily giving up recency off the layoff.

#3 NAVY SEAL will join ONE TEN STADIUM from the 1/6 common race and overall there is not much between the pair on their best day. Going back to that 1/6 race, NAVY SEAL also SLOG, something of a habit for this one, though did benefit from saving ground with the profile to finish third. His overall form fits at this level keying off the efforts in statebred conditions from prior seasons and holding his form coming into this race in the third start of the cycle. 

#2 ASYMMETRIC can upgraded as he makes his second start of the meet. He caught poor WEATHER impacted track conditions last month and unable to overcome the outside post with an X_WIDE trip. The connections had considered running last week in a $45k N2 though perhaps given the Muddy track conditions on the day they picked this spot instead Bejarano continued to stick around.

#7 WORK ORDER will follow ASYMMETRIC out of the 1/5 race and from the scratch last week. WORK ORDER has a lot to prove as an individual though had a legit excuse coming off the layoff last November and could be given a pass last month as he was fractious in the GATE and had to RUSH WIDE making his local debut. His early speed could be a factor and pressure to #4 BALSA making a local debut, lateral change in class while giving up recency off a three month layoff.

#3 MAHONEY ROAD is unlikely to offer the same value as last month with the obvious TROUBLE+ trip that likely cost him a better position if not the win. Some questionable TACTIC- from Hernandez playing a role and will look for redemption here. Even though MAHONEY ROAD projects to be shorter than last out he might still go off longer than #1 VALE returning from that 1/6 common race and with a more favorable journey. 

ML favorite #4 CATALINA CRUSH is logical though unexciting. He fits as his figures have remained consistent since the debut though has come up short on the win end or of a winning effort making the class change a reasonable move for this individual.

#3 NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO has the benefit of a local start and flow upgrade setting a Fast early pace on 12/30. The intent could be in play with the slight class change, picking up Lasix and a significant weight break with Bealmear taking over.

#8 ASK WILLIE also returns as a massive flow upgrade from the 1/13  race where he made a RUSH into a DUEL and Very Fast early pace for the mile distance. He also finds a further upgrade with the necessary change in class as he had been severely overmatched in MSW company and that has played a role in the outcome of his races to date. It is tough to compare horse-to-horse though a common rival called Just Ask Watts found the class drop to MCL company the right move scoring by open lengths to break his maiden at 16-1on 1/27, a race #1 PHENOMENAL DREAM wheels right back from. 

This might be the most competitive race on the card as a case can be made for every horse in this field and from a value standpoint alone will look outside #4 PERFECT FLIGHT and #5 DECISION MAKER on the win end.

#2 ROMAN CENTURIAN and #3 CAMP DAVID return from the 1/6 common race, a race that has produced two next out (and place) winners. The pair had subtle trips to present upside as CAMP DAVID found himself inside, a trip he has faltered with in the past and prefers to race outside horses where ROMAN CENTURIAN lost contact with the field over the off-track and unable to get into the running chasing behind a SLOW early and late pace. He also has shown an “every other” pattern in the past and cycling back to a top effort today fits as a contender.

Asmussen will return with the pair of #9 ETHICAL JUDGEMENT and #10 ALEJANDRO from the common race two weeks ago. ETHIICAL JUDGEMENT turned in better visuals on the day though did find the inside late and has shown a solid off track record/figures. The SLOG took him off the pace and in the past he has shown more tactical speed in the past. ALEJANDRO projected to show a little more on keying off his prior Oaklawn form. Perhaps he required the start giving up some recency off the two month break and can improve with the conditioning, first time in straight claiming company and should present value again. 

#2 STRAVA comes back for his second start of the meet and a flow upgrade from the event last month. He set the pace though is not a need the lead type and has been effective from off the pace. The distance change is a positive shortening up though not as short as the too short November return.

#1 COMMANDPERFORMANCE can also be upgraded from the 1/12 common race as found himself against the track profile/X_BIAS and returns under similar conditions. He has often shown a tendency to break SLOG, something to factor as far as value with the rail draw and shortening up to a mile.

#7 SANTOS DUMONT also caught WIDE against the profile that day can be upgraded though could get caught in what is projected to be a faster early pace given #9 B DAWK and #10 PAT’S PROPERTY on the outside along with the stretch out sprinters that includes the quick #3 MAJOR BLUE and #8 OSBOURNE curiously taking this spot rather than the King Cotton Stakes last weekend.

That contentious pace should play to the strength and style of #6 HAYES STRIKE with his late run. He will give up recency as he returns to take on older horses and that creates some reservations. C. Torres was also aboard for his TX Derby win and show finish in the Ohio Derby (G3) and lands on #5 MASQUEPARADE another giving up recency making his first start of the year. He is lacking much value given the morning line on a horse that has underperformed throughout his career and come up short without trip excuse last year. Prior to that he has some class as the 2021 Ohio Derby (G3) winner and some of the higher figures and competitive races in allowance company that fit here. 

#14 EMPYREAL SHADOW is given an upgrade should he draw into the race. Not only is he one of the few older horses, he has upside in the second start off the layoff and with the class change keying off the lone MCL effort from last season.

#11 GREAT BARRIER is also one of the older runners and takes a class change to run against statebred company for the first time. He fits in line with this group though does give up some recency despite this being the second start off the layoff as he does not show a published work since the 12/30 race. The recency edge and even value sides with #5 SECRET HONOR of the pair and also making his first start in statebred company.

#8 YAQUI VALLEY was exposed on class coming up short and off the 1/12 visuals. The class drop makes sense though one has to question if there is upside for this one at this point and his best being good enough to win. #1 SUNDAY SPIRIT is one of the sophomores in the field, though makes some other positive changes for this second start. He debuted opening week at a time when Moquett was on the COLD side and in against MSW company compromised by a poor start. That could present some upside over the other 3yo’s that have come up short at the MCL level they return to here – including #10 CHEZ WHIZ one that could join the others moving up in the selections with EMPYREAL SHADOW forced to wait for another day.  

#5 OUR GIRL FLINT takes the class drop and seems the right move as she has not shown much progression. #2 NURSE CAROLYN ran a competitive race a the level last out and returns for live connections. 

#4 TICKET TO FLY must improve in the presence of the other two though carries upside off her current form and subtle change in class. She recorded a BTL effort back on 12/16 and made a sneaky CLOSE despite the running line and 9th place finish noting an open length pacesetting winner, High Fashion Kate. 

#9 UNBRIDLED CHAOS did not have much of a chance to show what they have in the 1/6 debut. He broke SLOG and the race was dominated by a pacesetting winner and the race shape offered minimal change in running order. The race did produce two next out winners with the 5th and 8th place finishers coming back to break their maiden. 

#2 LAVER fits as a contender in this spot and might wind up as the third choice in the betting. He figures as a juvenile suggest upside in this current cycle and third off the layoff. In terms of the current cycle, he raced WIDE against the profile returning from the layoff in November and upgraded staying on in a BLANKET as the BOS X_FLOW in the show finish back on 12/29.