Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 10 Dance On The Moon 2 Logan Behold 7 Brigus

P 6 Code Cracker 10 The Greek Freak 1 Stormalong

P 6 WIndsun Diego 2 Don’t Freak Out 3 Tricky McWicky

P 6 Hungry Man 2 Hp Momentum 1 WIchwaytothebeach

P 10 Nazare 4 Respect Our Flag 7 Toronto

P 1 Sporty Bob 10 Nighttime Dancer 8 Better B Sirius

P 2 Holy Jalapeno 3 Hestonator 5 Odds On Kickoff

P 1 Maskedman 5 Brookdale Miki 4 Instantaneous

P 2 Codename Cigar Box 9 Powertrain 5 Livinthebeachlife

P 8 Sun Chip 7 St Lads Beat It 6 Dontpokethedragon

P 9 Kopi Luwak 2 Stone Carver 5 Beachin Lindy

#5 GUCCI BOY recorded the highest last out figure though did so at a time for live connections first off a freshening and though the effort was very honest in a trip was less than ideal he has come up short under similar MCL conditions and must hold his top effort once again to compete here. The barn change today is noted and a reclaim for Diodoro the trainer that started this one off in his career and lost the horse last February coming up short at the $40k MCL level. That pattern could open the door for #6 FASHION KING one that has tactical speed for today’s shorter 5.5f distance with his better two efforts recorded in MCL company. #3 CLOUD WITHOUT REIN is one of the more experienced runners in this field though most of his racing at the MSW level, there he had been overmatched throughout most of those starts. He has just the two MCL races, the most recent two starts both surrounded by layoff lines to give some pass. He has shown legitimate early speed and that tactical speed under J. Court that could present a pace advantage with this shorter sprint distance. 

#2 BEN DREAMING might not have handled the off-track as he broke SLOG gave up position and was in hand/NO_PUSH the rest of the race. DiVito wheels right back in two weeks for this spot and on the drop, a pattern that was used almost identically leading up to his maiden win in April. #1 LEVY projects improvement from the 1/26 return race and showing up under similar conditions. He might have required the race on conditioning and mental preparedness as he was restless in the GATE playing a role in the messy break and lacking early position did show a middle move and continued to run on late. His better efforts lack any edge on the win end and would require some price compensation in that role though can stick around for a share.

Morning line favorite and likely race favorite, #4 DESERT WOLF is tough to knock as he has consistently run the faster races compared to the others in this field and will make his first start for live connections with a subtle change in the second start off the layoff. He has shown legit early speed since the blinker addition a factor that should see him forwardly placed though also could find contention and pressure given the complexion of this field, including #6 LITTLE FRAPPUCINO stretching out today with sprint speed and even #7 HUMOR ME NOW projected to show more early speed keying off his better races and with the rider and post position change in play.

#8 ASSET BASIS might not appear to hold an edge “on paper” though brings into this race buried form and form that should find him competitive with today’s group at a bigger number given the morning line presenting a potential overlay. 

#2 FULLY ENTITLED projects to be a heavy favorite in this race and could be much shorter than the 5-2 ML suggests. She has the classic angles taking a DROP for a second start and exiting a productive, key race back in October at KEE and going out for well-known connections. Those factors make her logical, though this is an angle the barn has come up short in during prior Oaklawn seasons with similar horses as the favorite.

#6 BENT HALO returns to the MCL level where she debuted, and that effort was competitive all things considered. The connections likely felt similar wheeling back for the second start against MSW company. She was not as effective though should return to the right level today and fitness after setting a Fast early pace two weeks ago. #1 RED VOLTA shares the 12/31 common race with a TROUBLE trip and has shown progression race to race, something that is tougher to see just looking at the running lines and finishing positions along. That maiden event has been held form with the horses coming back including Gi Gis Map breaking her maiden last weekend with the 29-1 upset.

Those two exiting a higher MCL event and race par than #3 MISS ESCAPADE stepping up from the 1/1 event where the race shape had minimal change in running order and if looking at a runner from that race going forward, #7 RAETASTIC had a less than ideal trip and showed run in spots to suggest she can IMPROVE.

#8 TAKER BACK could be a live first time starter for capable connections, assertive rider with a solid local work tab. This one has been on the ground progressing since November including a solid gate move back on 12/17 and another half mile breeze on 1/30 to prepare for this debut.

Starting with the group wheeling back from the 1/27 common race two weeks ago; #2 IGNITIS had a look on the day with the class drop despite the less than ideal route distance, something they will return to today. The change in class is more of a lateral move here given the race par, though part of the group given a flow upgrade. #8 DOC HIGGINS raced as one of the pacesetters contesting a Very Fast early pace, a pace that likely assisted the top two from off the pace - the winner, Harleezy won from at least 12 lengths back at the first and second call.  #9 DANCE SOME MO was also part of the early pace that day and the TROUBLE- came late an outcome that was impacted more from the race shape.

A case can be made for DANCE SOME MO though the morning line suggests he will  be shorter than the other two this afternoon. The lack of value in the role of the favorite is the knock on #3 QUINCY MARKET coming into this race without an edge on class, speed or current for today’s conditions. He would be more interesting at the double digit odds he was in the two most recent starts.

#4 FIGHT’N READY made a positive PRERACE+ appearance though perhaps the timing was less than ideal coming off the maiden win and compromised by the drying out race track, and SLOG from the rail and the race won on the front end with minimal change in running order. He must return to top form to compete though this would be the time to take a chance as he projects to sit at much higher odds today than the two most recent starts. 

#7 IMMORAL has had some subtle trips in this two races this season and comes back from the BTL effort last month racing in the rain with poor visibility. His effort from last season under similar N2 conditioned races fit on par and could be dismissed by the public. One of those claiming events last season IMMORAL finished behind #8 LORD GRANTHAM a logical type making his belated second start this season return fresh off the claim for top connections.

Those two have shown more tactical speed, something that will be key to keep in contact with the likely pacesetters, #5 STUD LOVIN and #12 CONCEPT – and even a runners like #4 PRESSURE and #11 PLATINUM GHOST could mix it up as they have more early speed than it might appear.

#1 LIFE ON THE NILE is coming out of races where he has shown early route speed, though could find that form transfer to today’s event and back to the sprint distance. His sprint races do not show up on the standard 10 line pp’s, though going back to the start of the 2023 Oaklawn season he ran in two sprints holding second with an 81 figure. That number keeps puts him in contention and one to keep in the mix. 

#6 MEAN JAKEY took a tough beat staying on as the BOS to get caught at the wire. They will return here fresh with 42-days since the return race back on 12/30. His Stablemate #1 COMMUNICATION MEMO turned in a game effort against the profile making a WIDE MOVE to finish third and tough to ignore as the connections come right back under similar conditions. The timing along with the shorter projected number today create some reservations coming off a strong effort and wheeling back in just two weeks.

#4 MIDNIGHT MAJESTY must continue to improve off his races this season, though would appear the timing for him to do so. The allowance on 1/1 appeared a prep coming off the layoff protected and returning on 1/27 was stuck with the far outside post and had to use for position caught WIDE before losing ground a contrast to #9 HUSKER BUTCH one that was able to save ground. Landeros was aboard that day and will shift over to #3 HOT TICKET one that was also entered (and with Landeros named) on 1/27 though unable to draw in off the AE. He will give up recency and local experience though does have intent as noted and a longshot case can be made as he has a good late kick 

#3 MARTINI BLU could benefit from #13 WINDCRACKER failing to draw in off the AE taking some of the other early pace out of the race. While his win under similar restricted claiming conditions last August finds this circuit switch a step up, MARTINI was recording some competitive races and figures here back in 2021-22 that on repeat make him a major contender.

#8 LEADER OF MEN finds some changes as he makes his return to Oaklawn and looking for that first win on this circuit. Despite lacking the win, his efforts here have been respectable in context as those prior races were in against a higher level of competition playing a role in the outcome and todays drop being him back to a level where he can compete for that top spot.

#10 GALERIO was a voided claim finishing on the wrong side of a photo finish on opening day. Returning to top connections and with steady works since this one appears logical though likely obvious and shorter to the public. #11 CHARTER OAK was also game in defeat at this level last month. He will return with some changes , the distance being one and also noted a live barn on 1/6 where he was claimed and makes the first start for the new connections.  #1 THAT KHENNY is worth a mention coming back off the place finish last month and back under similar conditions, though did hold a favorable trip saving ground and might have flattered him on the day.

#5 GEORGIA DEPUTY is a legit longshot to win, though has form and minor finishes, some sneaky good efforts last year under similar conditions. He should come back today with fitness where a top effort could be projected as they were asked for early speed last month and were caught WIDE contesting the pace taken out of his natural closer run style. 

#6 PATE could move up from the place finish last month and step forward in this second start off the layoff. Going into the 12/30 race she was giving up recency and did not have a clean trip with TROUBLE early and making a WIDE MOVE behind the open length pacesetting winner, Backyard Money. #5 ALWAYS ANGELS recorded a place finish under similar allowance conditions opening week though caught a softer race par that day and stepping up to a higher par on 12/30 might have been a bit exposed on class (similar for #10 FASHION RAGE) and still must find more to win, though another minor share is not out of the question.

As far as #8 BLAME DAY her early speed and could be an asset in this race and could hold a slight class edge over the two William Martin mares #7 LOFTHOUSE and #9 COLLECTED GLORY with similar running styles. LOFTHOUSE finished off the board in her races at this level last season, though did show some run in spots and those efforts returning here could be enough for a minor share and projects to be much longer odds than #5 ALWAYS ANGELS and #10 FASHION RAGE.  

#3 TAPATIO LEO could turn out to be the speed of the speed and not worth trying to get creative in this spot. Nothing good comes easy and while he could be that horse, he is getting a stiff class test and his higher figures were all earned with a LONE trip, including the 12/10 racing with the LRC track profile and that big figure should be built into today’s odds. That LONE trip does not look to be in the cards given the complexion of this field as there are other to keep him honest especially #9 GOLDEN HORNET.

#8 LIFE IS HARD had a big look on 1/27 and did not appear to handle the track and timing. All is noted here as they wheel right back in two weeks recorded a work on Tuesday and has shown a top effort in the third start of the cycle, a pattern they return to here.

#2 CHIPOFFTHEOLDBLOCK is a bit of a stab given his current form that he must improve on to compete here. There are some positives to suggest today could be his day. His form is moving in the right direction improving into this third start of the cycle. He also has a pair of local works since the December return and most recent “bullet” earlier this month. The connections also are not taking a class drop today and the rider change is notable going back through his form many of his better races and more competitive efforts were recorded with J. Court in the saddle.

#11 KNEEDEEPINSNOW is another that has shown legit early speed and has form over this outside and distance going back to the 2021-22 season. He will give up recency returning from the 246-day layoff though did appear intent for this meet as he was training steadily noting the slight gap in January during the winter storm no fault of their own. 

Similar to last week in the King Cotton stakes, Steve Asmussen sends out a logical pair. #7 VALENTINE CANDY projects to be favored and shorter of the two as he looks to keep the stakes winning streak going. He has had some favorable trips and today’s event could be his toughest test to date and might even land additional public attention with his name this close to the holiday. Stablemate #4 AMERICAN RASCAL caught everyone’s eye and has been working his way back around and through layoffs to his peak form. He showed a ton of class where he should have had an excuse in the Zia Juvenile though found his way to win by open lengths. He had to do a lot of running that day and coming back with just 25-days into the Sugar Bowl stakes was less than ideal timing for a top effort and been given adequate recovery into this race.

#5 TIME FOR TRUTH showed a lot of class breaking his maiden on debut and if he is that horse he can step to take on winners and the connections showing some confidence as they make this second start in stakes company.

#2 MOENCHANTED had a big look opening day making her second start and suggested intent at the time to take on statebred company. She returns with a freshening from opening week and intent could continue with the drop and retaining Arrieta. #11 TWO BELLS can also be upgraded from that 12/8 common race presenting upside from the trip following a SLOG she showed a sneaky good finish/CLOSE and continued to GALLOP+ after the wire. The outside post in the full field could present a hurdle, though does appear to provide value compensation.  

Of the older runners in the field, #8 KOKOMO STARLET does appear to hold the edge of that group. She has shown legit early speed, should be fit in this second start off the layoff and just a second start in MCL company. 

SAM F. DAVIS (G3)

In the past five years there has only been on winning favorite, Classic Causeway in 2020. That is not to knock #9 CHANGE OF COMMAND on that alone as he can still be considered the horse to beat, though could still be an underlay in that role. He is capable, has solid connections, upside though coming into this race he does not hold any overwhelmingly strong edge in this field. 

A lot of the local horses can get dismissed and suggested by the morning line. #4 CRAZY MASON presents value at the projected 10-1 as one of the "Tampa" horses coming into this race. The quotes are used as he has form over multiple race tracks including his dominant maiden win at Saratoga. He has continued to progress, improve with added ground and shown he can overcome adversity. That was the case in the 1/14 allowance getting a shuffled and losing position and first run showing class and an extra gear to get up over #11 FULMINEO and move into a slower pace. FULMINEO was making his return to dirt and given credit for the ground loss, WIDE trip and has some class keying off the Pilgrim (G2) not far off #6 AGATE ROAD, another that could fall into underlay territory. Timing wise that allowance race was less than 30 days ago and CRAZY MASON did have to work hard to get the win, something that should be factored and required into the odds to play. 

#5 NO MORE TIME has a lot to prove though has upside from the subtle trip in the Mucho Macho Man stakes and can present a move forward in this second start of the cycle just as he did last year with the improvement all around breaking his maiden. Mott has had some success with maiden winners into this race and is represented by #12 ELYSIAN MEADOWS. As an individual he has done nothing wrong, though must improve and has the additional hurdles from the outside and first start around two turns.