Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 SEARCH has form right in line with the logical types #3 MRS. SPEAKER and #5 REQUESTFORPROPOSAL two that could catch the right group, though have come up short at this level on the win end. 

#6 SALLY'S SURPRISE might not be the "most likely" in the race, though can get into the mix at the projected double digit odds. She was upgraded with the class drop three weeks ago and turned in a competitive effort despite the 4th place result. She should hold her form back under similar conditions and the race shape suits her runstyle as she finds pace to close into. 

#4 D’ORO STREET was entered here back on 1/27 under similar $50k N2 conditions before showing up at TP just over a week ago. She should return here to this circuit and dirt with fitness and intent with the placement here given her early speed and the shorter 5.5f distance. She has enough tactical speed to make the lead or press #2 HOUSE OF MAGIC drawn to her inside. #3 OUR KEEPSAKE has the benefit of recency and fitness finding class relief in this third start off the layoff. She has had gate uses in the races this season, though has still remained competitive and improving figures into this event. #1 CHANISA going out for a live Asmussen barn returns for a second start off the layoff and from the 1/27 common race. The WEATHER played a role in the poor track conditions and where the inside was favorable upgrading CHANISA as she chased outside from the outside post making  WIDE MOVE to finish third behind the race winner Code for Success and today’s rival #5 KEY TO SUCCESS (and #7 PIONEER PARADE)  both with ground SAVED trips. 

#3 SAMMIES SAMURAI had a look under similar conditions when entered and scratched from a N2 event back on 1/12. Her local form fits at this level keeping in mind she was running against a higher class last season. Her runstyle where she can show tactical speed in today’s group and while she is giving up recency, she has shown she can fire fresh.

#1 ALWAYS SMILING broke out before getting RUSH’d WIDE to the lead playing a role in the outcome and faltering as the favorite. She was also showing up for first start on the circuit and comes back with local experience, a 35-day freshening for the new connections and some intent with the blinker addition. Following the trend from last week #8 SUMMER OF MISCHIEF could move up in her second start this meet. She will find a subtle change in class and has legit early speed. Her finishing ability has come into question and part of the reason she has had success at the shorter distances.

#4 WREAKING HAVOC will come in fresh though also has shown she can fire fresh keying off her debut here last January. She has held her form and figures under similar N2 conditions at PID. Her better races have been run over this course and distance with pace to stalk-and-pounce and could find that scenario here. 

#4 SPEITFUL SAM had a look coming back from the layoff last month and might have required the race. In addition to the conditioning coming back for the second start off the bench he is a flow-upgrade from the race and a slightly softer race par under different claiming conditions.

#2 TWISTED DIXIE finds a subtle change in class exiting the protected statebred conditions to race here for the tag against open. He appears well intended for the connections second off and returning to Torres, the rider that was aboard for a competitive place finish last season. #11 COMMUNICATION MEMO comes back logical from the competitive effort against a higher claiming N3 level three weeks ago. The barn scratched from a $20k N3L event on Saturday a race where they also sent out the off the board favorite, Mean Jakey.

Looking at the group from the 1/26 common race: #5 CHELSEA DAGGER returns under similar conditions from the event three weeks ago upgraded from the TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip and overall effort, much more competitive that it may appear on paper and finishing position. He finished behind rival #8 INVARIABLY as the place finisher and the effort a hard fought battle settling for place. He was “better” on the day, though also appeared to be in the right place for that effort in his second start of the cycle, a second off pattern that CHELSEA DAGGER has in play here. #9 ROMAN GIANT also had a TROUBLE in that event and can step forward here also finding a rider change after poor handling (TACTIC-) on the day. 

#1 WELLMAN was one of the horses that had to scratch a couple times during the weather cancellations prior to the 1/28 start and also could have had a disruption in training with the gap in works leading up to that event. He returns with fitness and regular form cycle with the potential to improve given the rough (RUSH, TROUBLE_S) start and TRAFFIC trip. The lack of works was noted on the day as a concern for WELLMAN and that carries here to #9 SLAM DUNK SERMON with his most recent published work over a month ago on 12/21 an otherwise logical type.

#3 GOOD HEART returns with fitness in this second start off the layoff and coming back for live connections. The 1/5 race was run in the rain over poor WEATHER impacted track conditions where the race winner Drifter win from off the pace. That presents an upgrade, though still must prove best with a front end trip as #2 UNDER THE GUN, #7 COST BASIS and #10 POPULIST project to show a similar forward runstyle.

That contentious pace should assist #5 ALPINE THUNDER based on his run style and similar for #11 PRESS SNOOZE one that was downgraded with the profile last month, though upgraded in form cycle and with today’s race shape. #8 BLACK STORM is another that can find the contentious pace favorable though still requires the right handling to get a trip and not leave himself too much to do or give the jump to the others. 

#5 BEAUTIFUL AND BOLD makes her second start of the season and changes for this race. Going back to 12/30 she was in a tougher, higher level $30k claiming event where she took KICKBACK before moving WIDE. She was claimed out of that race, takes the drop today and aggressive move that can be noted for higher percentage connections pointing to win races by any means necessary.

Some positive intent could be in play for #9 KITIARA as she makes her belated return and return to Oaklawn. She has form and upside from her races here last season as a sophomore. As far as intent, the connections land in this spot against open company, though the right condition as she was entered on Sunday in a statebred N3, where she would have been racing above condition.

#4 MY CAJUN LADY figures the “safer” option in this group with consistency and current form this season back under similar conditions. She took a tough beat at the mile in December and made a WIDE MOVE over a drying out track for place last month. #10 COURAGEOUS CAPPEN finds a class change to move up naturally in this spot. She is still on the lighter side though given price compensation can be included. 

#9 EL FRANCO turned in a BTL effort coming back from the 1/28 common race. He showed a ton of run after a SLOG making a WIDE MOVE against the profile and can IMPROVE all around. #5 DEEP STATE also returns from that common race and another that had a SLOG while giving up recency on the day. He should benefit from the start and could be overlooked off the recent running line. #6 LONG CROW should not be overlooked looked of the group off the place finish, an effort that is tough to knock though perhaps taxing as he did have to overcome the profile, SLOG, and put in that big effort off the layoff on a quicker 19-day turnaround.

Live Asmussen barn returns with #8 PHANTOM RIDE could find the right race shape for his runstyle in today’s dynamic. He has tactical speed, though is not a need the lead type and more of a grinder can work in his favor. Trip is the factor for #3 SUPER CONSISTUTION one that was given a longshot look this season and has more tactical speed, speed they could project to show here with the rider change to Hernandez. The concern is not get caught up in a pace that looks fast and contentious with the two inside runners, #1 GUIDED ARROW and #2 ARMAGNAC likely forward from the jump and kept honest with #4 TRIGGER HAPPY and #7 CITY OF CLOUDS stretching out here. 

#4 RONALDINHO makes a belated debut here and a rare MSW first time starter on this circuit from the sample they usually bring in. He worked 10 flat back in March still growing, green with a late lead change, though showed something.

#5 TOP GUN ROCKET presented as a SPRINTER on debut and returns to the distance for the first time since. Number wise he is a touch softer than #8 ORANGE DIABLO also cutting back for this sophomore debut. He has been consistent though perhaps to a fault coming up short as the favorite in his recent starts. The excuses being distance for TOP GUN.

Both #7 HENRO and #2 STRASSE return for a belated second start exiting productive debut races, respectively. HENRO turned in a better figure and likely shorter today of the two where STRASSE was caught against the ELP profile back in August and following the race did not return to work until late December and has been on track working here since and one perhaps we have yet to see run.

#3 BRAVEN could be the preferred of the Asmussen pair making his debut off a steady local series of works paired with Santana as #1 RIDE FOR SUL has lacked excuse or much improvement from his two starts. 

As noted with #4 JUNIOR BUG in prior analysis that holds true again today; he is the type of horse that is logical, in form, has the right run style, though can find ways to still come up short on the win end. The early pace should be honest for him to stalk and could play against #7 BORN FLAWLESS one that could wind up favored and pressured early by others in this field. #1 CHAPEL BARN being one of those, the race shape does him no favors, though is back at the preferred shorter distance and carries upside from the races this season.

#8 SHACKLEFORD STRONG does not have to be pushed to the lead and that tactic might not be effective here given the race shape filled with pacesetting types. The DiVito runner makes a belated second start this season and positive that he remains protected and can be given a upgrade chasing WIDE against the profile back in December. That event was won by #9 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE one that was downgraded on the quick turnaround off the win in January though has been given recovery time here to cycle back to another top required to compete. Place finisher #11 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL also returns here and has held his form this. Trip and pace is still something to consider and requires price compensation from the outside post and off the pace runstyle. 

#5 KING RUSSELL showed progression with racing last year and could see that carry as he makes his second start this season. He was upgraded given the layoff and from the WIDE trip place finish. #4 B MINOR can be upgraded for this second start of the season and key change in distance STRETCH-ing back out around two turns. He has form over this course from last March and current excuses since joining Diodoro including the stakes closing out 2023.

#3 HARLOCAP projected to show more tactical speed back on 1/6 and as they return here that change in tactics could apply. Some of his better efforts stack up strongly on figures though those races were also flattered with SLOW early race shapes. HARLOCAP could hold a slight edge over the McPeek pair of #6 LORD VICENTE and #7 SOUTHERN SUNSET. Figure wise SOUTHERN SUNSET ran a new top last out though could have benefit from the scenario and projects to be much shorter today and even shorter than rival #1 GAME KEEPER, still a maiden though went off shorter in that common event three weeks ago and could get into the mix. 

#4 WHAT’S HER NUMBER turned in BTL effort on debut though faltered with the return and added ground last month. She will find the right changes to improve with the SHORTER distance and even the subtle class DROP into this restricted MSW condition.

#9 LEAD WITH SPEED did just that when she debuted 16-days ago at TP and would be no surprise where though might not have caught the strongest group on the day, dismissed for the barn off the 9-2 ML and given the connections and show finish could be favored here. #3 FOXY ZORRA also showed early speed should be longer of the two making the subtle change in class for this second start and out of a stronger 12/31 MSW event along with local experience.

#8 PAM PAM also finds the class change here from some competitive MSW events last year in KY. Number wise she was steadily moving forward and could see that continue as she returns fresh as a sophomore here. She should also present value over #2 WHEN I LOOK AT YOU one that will step up as she lands here from the October higher MCL event last October at KEE. She was scratched from the race here on 1/26, the race #8 WISE MISS returns from and needs to show more to get the win though no reason to suggest she cannot or at the least hold form.

P 8 Glenboro 3 Splash Of Pink 2 Ethel

P 2 Sailors Shadow 8 Dance On The Moon 4 Purely Wicked

P 1 Need To Breathe 5 My Hungry Girl 8 Kele Kele

P 1 Honey Love 6 Stay Classy 3 Beth

T 8 Phoenix 2 Ezra 6 Majordancemoves

P 5 Margosgotthecargo 2 Angostura Hanover 9 Monsoon

T 7 Stella Alpha 4 Memo 6 Grateful

P 2 Easy Cheesy 8 Brigus 1 Watch Your Tone

P 4 Red Dirt Hot Shot 2 Feel Itinyourhands 7 Playa Duharas

7 Southwind Caeser 6 Talismano 5 Magnificent Seven

P 7 Raptors Won 6 Jm Betonsix 5 Chiefs Dream Girl