Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 7 Settn A Precedent 6 Shes Got it All 5 Style For A Mile

P 1 Stormalong 8 Ikes Dream 4 Larceny

P 7 Tricky McWicky 2 Logan Behold 4 Windsun Diego

P 10 Reactor Now 8 Code Cracker 2 Brookdale Miki

P 4 Come On Artie 8 Nightime Dancer 7 Odds On Kickoff

P 1 Stone Carver 4 Ilikemebettor 5 Lets Tie One On

P 2 Hes Swift 1 Mr. Ibiza 9 B Stoney

P 7 American Classic 6 St Lads Beat It 5 Order One To Go

P 6 Codename Cigar Box 7 Soaring Now 8 Powertrain

P 9 All Bets On Tex 8 Mikron 6 Holy Jalapeno

P 10 The Greek Freak 7 Kopi Luwak 6 Twin B Powerball

#8 KENTUCKY GHOST returns with intent and preferred timing in this second start off the claim. He appeared with less intent last month wheeling back off the claim and with a WIDE trip was not asked (NO_PUSH) for his best that afternoon. 

#7 CAUSEWAY BENNY had a look leading up to his debut showing some run in the morning and that transferred to the afternoon. He had a tough task first out with the outside post, though raced competitively while WIDE and should hold his form coming back for this second start. The 1/20 race had some quality with many returning here as well as a pair of next out winners.

#11 WISH CAREFULLY is a logical type, the "most likely" winner. He moved up with the shift to statebred company and coming into this race recorded the highest figures in the field back in December. He was competitive in both, though still without excuse lacked a win or winning effort and must show more on that front, something separate from the numbers. 

#5 LIUZZA caught the eye training last summer and projected to move up off the debut and did just that breaking her maiden in a strong B+ OptixGRADE effort over today's course and distance. That Grade suggests she can take the step up in class and even continue to improve as a lightly raced type. 

Tough to knock #5 SPIRIT AND GLORY as she fits and logical in the role of the favorite. Many others return from the Krantz Memorial last month and out of that event #7 FANCY MARTINI is upgraded with an EX - EXCUSE on the day. #13 JOIN THE DANCE has her work cut out from the outside though her tactical speed should assist establishing position and has moved forward in this current cycle. 

#7 CIBOLO takes a drop in this second start off the layoff and on this circuit. The placement looks to place him here he can compete and should hold fitness coming back from the 1/6 race, drawn wide and catching a drying out race track. Tough to split the Diodoro pair as #1 RIFEY has consistently run the faster figures, though lacks early speed and price compensation is required on this type of closing runner; #3 RAYMOND is softer number wise though has the benefit of recency and fitness as he makes his second start off the layoff. He could present some value today, something that was not present on 1/6 as the default favorite and different race shape that benefit #8 DRIFTER to pull off the upset. #2 RARE STRIPE could also step up from that common race last month, he has some tactical speed and figures that fit on his best day and could present value in this group and over #5 STAND FOR FREEDOM one with similar form and runstyle.

#5 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN is one of the few older runners and has established form and figures coming into this race. She is tougher to trust given her record and what should be a shorter number than she has been this season, though should catch the right group. #6 CHOCTAW BLESSINGS is also one of the older runners and brings some upside in this second start and quick return she could also go off higher than her sophomore rivals draw inside for the connections, #1 LATIFAH and #2 LAST CHANCE SALOON.

Trainer Timothy Martin will send out of a pair: #8 RITA’S REVENGE will make a belated debut; she was scheduled to debut last July at PRM in MSW company and again on 12/16 here in a MCL event back in December both times a vet scratch and with Zimmerman named. That could suggest intent as she can be tougher to get race ready and might have to come out running; #9 WILD CHEROKEE caught a tougher group in her debut three weeks ago. She was just one of a few FTS and 3yo in the field and given no favorite with the far outside post WIDE trip and WEATHER impacted poor track conditions.

#7 STOIC LUNA just fits this condition as she has one race in her career a $12.5k claiming event back in the July 2022 that makes her eligible. That presents a major class edge coming into this race and her current form  also fits tis season and should move up naturally in today’s group.

#1 UNDECODED was effective with a similar second off pattern last season and change to Torres the rider returning here. She has more tactical speed if necessary with today’s rider able to navigate and adjust to that type of trip something that could be key in today’s race shape with a murky pace scenario.  #4 HISSY MISSY also holds some form over this course and distance from last season that fits on par. Class wise is more of a lateral move from her recent races and a similar progressive form cycle that had her effective in prior seasons.

Torres might have had some options in this race and sticks jumps back aboard #1 PARTYINTHESTREETS. Class wise this could be seen as a step up from the $20k N2 events this season, though in terms of race par, is a lateral move and coming back from a BTL place finish last out suggests they can compete right back. #2 PEPPERONI KID has that same lateral class change returning from the 1/28 common race. He should benefit form that start and conditioning off the layoff and will reunite with Arrieta, the maiden win rider from last season keeping him closer to the pace and a similar trip should be projected here. Also returning is #6 CHUPAPI MUNYAYO one that recorded higher figures of that group and can step up in this second start off the layoff. Value is required and the knock last out with his closing runstyle, though should give credit to the effort one more competitive than the run line and finishing position suggests.

In terms of class and figures #5 CHOCTAW ZIP will make his first start for the claiming tag. He has held his form this season, though has not shown much improvement since his juvenile year and the drop appears logical to place him where he fits at this point. The change in class and even picking up Harry Hernandez could see them show more tactical speed here.

The Broberg pair fit at this level and placed where they can compete. #7 BERTIE’S CAUSE races protected today as she makes her second start of the season, off the long layoff and against winners. She might have been short leading up to the race two weeks ago and would require that to be the case to step up and project improvement to compete.  #6 GREEK HEIRESS has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and over this course. She was claimed at this level back on 12/30 and improved second off and in a higher N2 claiming condition first off the claim from the outside post and should fit with today’s group on current form. #2 LAURA BRANIGAN has yet to race over the dirt though brings in form and class to this circuit with a lateral move making the change and showing up here at the N2 claiming level.

#6 ROYAL ACT might be the most likely winner as he was on 1/1 and likely to be bet similarly off the claim and off that win. He did what needed to be done though will require a step up here and to his better races in order to fulfil that role as the favorite given the competitive nature of this field.

#7 LEADER OF MEN is looking for his first Oaklawn win though should be in the right group to improve that local record. To be fair one of his place finishes was a photo for the win back in 2022 under a similar conditioned claiming event as today. Claimed out of that race he has primarily raced protected and in the case of his races on this circuit, pairing those efforts here make him contender today.

#3 MAKE NOISE is tough to make a strong contender case for, though on his best day fits here and with this group. His effort opening week being one of those at a higher race par and could benefit from the rider change and moving off the rail. In addition, his runstyle could work a trip in a projected contentious early pace.

Some intent could be in play with the #2 WYFIRE connections wheeling right back in a week under similar conditions. Going back to the first start this season he had legit early TROUBLE taking him out of his race and contention. The placement was reasonable last week, though did have to deal with a WIDE trip behind the pacesetting class dropping chalk winner Full Authority and place finisher Awesome Family that chased him around the track. The added ground is a bit of an unknown, he does have three route races all on the turn as a juvenile at a higher level including the G3 La Jolla, though those figures make him competitive should he transfer that form.

#5 VICKI ROSE has some buried form that fits with today’s group. She also has some recency and could be a positive for this filly given her layoff history. She will also return from a solid effort on 1/4, a race with the winner coming back to score in a N1 OC at Turfway earlier this month and the 5^th place finisher, Chelsea Pier showing up on this circuit and improving to run a competitive show finish last week in MSW company.

Medina has sent out many live runners this season and will be represented here with #2 ALICIT INTENTION making her debut. She comes int this race with a steady series of works with the recent series here at Oaklawn. She also picks up a live rider in Vazquez, an assertive rider that should be key from an inside post and sprint distance.   

#6 BOLD APPEAL will take on older for her second start though is coming out of a stronger race back on 12/31. She lacked finish though did set a fast early pace showing natural early speed and projects to show a similar style right back in this group though could find more contention especially with #7 LADY MOSCATO draw to her outside. 

The early pace should be honest while perhaps not overly contentious #1 MOZINGO should be on the lead right from the jump with her early speed and rail draw. #8 BENNYKAYANDSUZYTOO also has legit early speed and current form this season as well. She had to RUSH up WIDE into the DUEL X_FLOW last out and some intent should be in play reuniting with Bowen and the connections scratching from a $20k N3 claiming event on 2/11 to run here instead.

#5 PATTERN BET fits this N3 condition and fits in her form cycle projecting to improve in this seconds start back off the layoff. She should benefit from the race last month, where she was in against open company and compromised by a TROUBLE_S racing further off the pace over a drying out muddy race track.

#6 SASSY LASS has some concern as she will be racing slightly above condition at the N3 level though should be overlooked by the public off the recent running lines, races that were much more competitive than what appears on paper to offer price compensation.  In addition, she will return today with a rider change to Hernandez as well as picking up blinkers and that combination could assist her showing more tactical speed and alert break.

 #3 SHARP TUNE came up short as the Mockingbird Stakes favorite last month, though fitness should be on her side returning here in the second start off the layoff and with the local experience. She could be given a further upgrade as she set a Fast early pace to set up the winner, Midshipman’s Dance, and today’s rival #7 TANYA SHOWERS the place finisher.

Recent maiden winner #5 GHALIA PRINCESS is projected to gather a lot of public support for the connections. She turned in a solid effort though had a favorable trip with insignificant trouble and more crucial here is the massive step up in class from the maiden group last month. #6 BLUE SQUALL is preferred of the recent maiden winners as she has local form and has been consistent in each start, something that is tough to knock and could carry here. She also carries common races with TANYA SHOWERS going back to 10/29 with BLUE SQUALL finishing second and at a much shorter number of the board than TANYA SHOWERS that day.

#2 XTREME SMOKE SHOW could also be upgraded from the Mockingbird stakes as she make her second start off the layoff. She had a subtle trip that could present a move forward and progress off her top figure from the KEE allowance win. Stablemate #8 XTREME DIVA has recorded the higher figures of the two; she improved in her second start of the season, the win two weeks ago and will be tested on the quick turnaround. The two also share a common race, the Myrtlewood Stakes last year at KEE with SMOKE SHOW showing a little more of the pair.

Van Berg scratched both #1 INDIAN GULCH and #2 NEPAL UP when they were entered under similar conditions and 9f distance on 1/27 with the WEATHER impacted Sloppy race track. #2 NEPAL UP is coming back from a longer layoff though has a steady series of work and Vazquez is picking up the mount as Bejarano is at the Fair Grounds with just one mount on the card, Honor Marie in the G2 Risen Star.

#8 NAMESAKE also scratched from that common race and had buried form and form over this course that fits on par as well as his runstyle that could land the right trip in this field. He shares a similar runstyle and better draw and likely higher number on the board than #10 T BONES TRICK.

#4 GUN RUSH has ben in top form since entering the Watkins barn and adding the blinkers. He has been a tough horse even in defeat where the winner really had to work to get the win and past him. He will be stepping up in class and tested for the 9f distance, though his early speed and determination is respected and if others in here take back (not a guarantee with #9 BANDERA AZTECA stretching out) he could be tough to catch.

RISEN STAR (G2): 

I understand the pubic attention that will fall to #11 TRACK PHANTOM in this race. The key to the game is being contrarian when given an edge, that is the potential edge to play against here as the favorite. TRACK PHANTOM is undeniably coming back off three straight wins with solid front end efforts and even in my opinion (and data Q1 Square) he has the edge over the other pacesetters in this field. His effort in the Gun Runner was strong effort as he took pace pressure (BOS, X_FLOW) through a solid pace before kicking away (MOVE) from his rivals. That type of effort could be taxing and as he returned in the Lecomte (G3) 28-days later, he did take a step back number wise. The effort was also earned with a LONE trip, something he is not as likely to find in the complexion of this field. Not only did the number slightly decline, visually he appeared to show the effects to the Gun Runner.  To win this race as it is drawn, he must be required to show up with a top effort and there are some concerns on that front based on his form cycle. 

#3 HONOR MARIE fits as a solid contender. He will give up recency and his runstyle must work, though he less of a concern given his class paired with speed figures, consistently fit on par. He has been training forwardly into this race  (with a workmate called Drip debuting earlier on the card) and off the visuals should be race ready. Bejarano comes in town to ride; this is his only mount on the card and exchanging for some potentially live mounts today at Oaklawn. 

#8 CATCHING FREEDOM must step up in the speed figure department though could take that step forward and one that has yet to run a bad race - including the November allowance earning a B OptixGRADE, despite the fourth place result. He will make his graded stakes debut but that is taking nothing away from a $300k Smarty Jones win, a race where the 5th place finisher, Mystik Dan came back to win the Southwest (G3) earlier this month. 

Value is the main knock with the deep closing #4 SIERRA LEONE as the likely second choice coming back from the Remsen (G2) a common race with #5 MOONLIGHT one that requires improvement to compete and should project to show more tactical speed today. 

#12 BEE DANCER has a tough task coming off a strong B+ debut win stretching out in distance, showing up in graded stakes company and with the outside post. With all of that said, this horse has some ability and one to follow and would not be at least surprised for him to show up with a competitive effort.