Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 UPBEAT MELODY sneaks into this race with the conditions posting his two wins in 2023 though the recent win in May just weeks before the eligibility cutoff. He will return to HAW the shorter distance, Baird aboard and with a steady string of works – all around intent for this spot on opening day. #9 LYRICAL POET also has early speed and will look to clear as he makes the surface switch to stay on the dirt. He could deal with others in that role and has never passed a horse. The far outside could be the big hurdle for #14 FEROCITY (AE) if he clears the first big hurdle of drawing in.

#3 ONE LAST HAND also holds a pair of wins from early in 2023 and comes back today fresh for Watkins a barn that had a strong 2023 season and starting off 2024 with a win at TP and OP. The shorter 5f distance could be a test for this one though can project them to show early speed as many for this barn often do and similar for J. Felix. The shorter distance for #8 RUSSIAN TO WIN is the bigger unknown that current form for live connections. He has been training locally and facing tougher last season he fits on those factors. The recency and shorter distance is the advantage for #11 HINK’S PALADIN, though the only advantages as he comes into this race lighter than many others.

#5 BREAKING NEWS has the one win last year, a win under similar $5k conditional claiming company. The majority of his races were contested at a higher class, purse and par though requires a massive turnaround something that could be in play given the freshening, a live rider in A. Centeno and could also look for a front wrap removal with the wraps added in those most recent three starts.

Granted #7 ALPINE GHOST was “second off” when he made his 2023 seasonal debut on 3/16 but that race was a legit effort in the 4^th place result sprinting 5f behind the pacesetters and if the pace is contentious or there is some bunching up he is one that could benefit from that scenario and just land in the right time and place.  

Rivelli FTS starters take a lot of wagering support and for fair enough reason as they often win. There are two in this field where the older and Baird aboard #1 CROWN ROYAL KID is likely to be fancied over #6 SENDEMDOWNTHEROAD though probably not be much.

#8 MY TENNIS SHOES is one of the 4yo and one of the few coming into this race with current and solid form from the FG meet. He turned in a BTL effort on 2/9 and competitive show finish racing on the off-track through TRAFFIC. While he has that going for him, he has not shown much early speed and while he could be a solid anchor to hit the board the run style and shorter distance is something to consider for the top spot.

#5 LATE BLACKSMITH might be worth getting creative with. He is statebred bonus eligible, a 4yo, showed early speed first out, has recent works and some subtle changes in class with the blinkers added. They could present upside over #4 GOD GUNS N GUTS one that finds the right class change with the DROP returning to this circuit. 

#1 ROBUST took a tough beat and did a lot of running staying on as the BOS last month at DeD. The effort was potentially taxing though should have some recovery with the 36-day break since that race off the bench, a quicker turnaround would be more concerning. They have early speed though also have passed horses and do so from an inside post. That could be key here with other E/EP horses in the field including #7 MCVICKER a main threat for Vanden Berg as a lightly raced type that will take on older though first time to run for a tag and looks to be very dangerous.

#5 MINNESOTA MOON will cutback to a sprint something he has only done one other time but might be the right move for this one. The drop in class is another positive as he is who he is and just needs to find the right group. He has the one start this year back on 1/11 chasing WIDE early before losing ground in a race that has held form and could present a further positive here. 

As noted in Race 2, Rivelli runners get a lot of attention in these type of spots and likely to be the case here with the lightly raced second time starting #3 GIANNO though this is a different game. They will make a second start must step forward, take on older and do something new as they stretch out in distance with all of those factors needed to project a competitive outcome here -and something that requires price compensation to make that leap. It is also worth noting they have been entered a couple times since the November debut, both races scheduled for turf and at the $32-30k MCL condition.

#9 REGIMENTAL is likely going to be the alternative and in contrast has established form and recency out of the FG meet and on the one week turnaround. The timing can go one way or another too much too soon or a ready horse that after today will get a break. His main track races have been sneaky good. His highest figure at CD around two turns and has a show finish with a less than ideal trip here last July and a full EX - EXCUSE trip with TROUBLE on 1/7 at FG.

Perez has a pair of older, more seasoned, established maidens that could take to these conditions and the edge in this field: #2 WOLF HUNTER is the most established though has consistent figures on the main and route distance and familiarity with Lezcano; #10 MONEY AGENT is unproven on the dirt and willing to give a pass to the lone dirt start with the time off that followed. He has upside all around and from the “trips” last year, proven around two turns and today’s race par being softer than the events last year moves him up naturally.

#8 WICKED GUS debuted in a common race with #7 ELECTRIC CHARGE back on 11/4 at FanDuel and was a good debut given the challenges going two turns first out, taking on older and showing run through some adversity with the self-inflicted poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and making a MOVE X_FLOW. 

While it might be worth trying to getting clever with prices in the other maiden events, #1 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE is a use here at the projected shorter number. He will make a belated debut as a four-year-old IL-bred with some upbeat moves coming into this race. Given the delay to career and in MSW company this one looks as race ready as they can be and should come out running. Outside of the Chris Block trained #9 GOOD APPLE making some changes for this second start, the rest of the field have shown who they are and can open the door for a “new” face to jump up.

#4 HAND OVER MY HEART is lightly raced and still can present upside. He will step up to take on older in this sophomore debut with the circuit switch and rider upgrade. He showed run in the starts last year and with a stronger rider on their back for the November race they might have already cleared the maiden condition. 

This is a clever spot for #2 MADELYN BELLE first off the claim and returning to Hawthorne. She was claimed for $25k and as an IL-bred can run for the higher $20.3k tag in this spot and in for a number not far off what she was claimed for and even if claimed with a win on top makes the investment.

#4 DESSERT FIRST comes into this race with current form and local form from last season. She broke her maiden in the first local appearance back in November 2022 and returning here last May put in a BTL effort with the show finish sprinting 6f; a strong run after a messy break behind a very in form Rivelli runner called Wilma Mankiller.

#7 APRIL’S GEM also must race for a tag today though had run for a tan last season. Last season she also pulled off the upset in the first part of the meet (3/16) when she was able to get to the lead (rail draw that day) and took advantage of the cold wins to a front running 17.7-1 upset score. O. Hernandez was aboard that day and for much of the 2023 success and his presence noted elsewhere picking up the mount on #5 SMOOTH JUSTICE. On her best day she can be right there, though will give up recency and remains protected, a good spot off the bench to get some fitness at the least for this IN-bred mare.

Her stablemate #6 FIRST KITTEN last seen at HS Indy make a return to Hawthorne, a track where she is a different race horse. She along with Centeno had a ton of success going back to 2022 and tough to ignore though will be tested to come out running off the layoff, this type of break is one she has not has since the spring of 2022 – she did not miss a beat since the break she returns from today. 

This is a race to get creative and seek value with alternatives to #4 GOLD OAK and #7 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT in this spot looking at horses that might been best suited to today, not necessarily seeking out the “best” horse in the race.

#1 JOCELYN comes in with recency some subtle trips, a sneaky close last month and a class drop shifting to this circuit and class level. Trainer E. Lopez has found success with their runners as of late and had a strong 2023 Hawthorne meet including early on in the season picking up multiple wins in the first few weeks.

#5 ARRINGTON is a longtime maiden and has those reservation and requires some of those longer odds to hold and compensate. On her side, she has local experience and has been able to fire fresh. She showed up on this circuit for her second career start with a competitive place finish and last season another competitive effort sprinting on 8/27 as part of a BLANKET finish under today’s MCL conditions.

#8 BABAS GAL has struggled with the level of competition this year at OP, though those races have kept her fit as she shows up here with form for this race. She is on an every other pattern and while those numbers are not anything with a big edge the timing is on her side all around and at the longer projected odds gets consideration. 

Morning line favorite, #1 LILY’S WOOFY takes the drop here and with eligibility with the limited starts since the layoff. She is looking for that first win since 2022 though has maintained form, has recency and some early speed to factor in this race and from the rail.

Following the Oaklawn season and runners from the Genaro Garcia barn shipping in from Turfway to Hot Springs and finding success with that move something they will look for here with #2 CAN’T BE TOUCHED. She wheels right back for this second start of the cycle and upgraded from the WIDE trip on 3/14, a day/week that favored inside runners and her 5^th place finish was behind the top two that finished together and clear at the wire. While there could be intent in play, trip is noted as she has yet to pass a horse and there are many in here that will look to show early speed and kept honest as #4 PLAY TWENTY and #7 SMILE AT THE STORM will be out there and willing to take this field gate-to-wire.

If they go quick, that scenario assists #3 PALAGO one that has also had success first off the bench, though would want a little more than the 5-1 ML given her trip from off the pace at 5f. #6 TIMELESS GLORY one that has had most of her success at longer distances though a lot of that success here and a couple of in-the-money finishes sprinting and some trouble with the trip sprinting and less than ideal race-to-race timing last August.

The Bahena runner (BABAS GIRL) is worth a follow in Race 8 with a similar pattern for #5 MISS WINDY SLEW exiting the Oaklawn meet and outclassed on that circuit though keeping her fitness and conditioning by racing. She has a further interest as an IL-bred racing for the $7500 tag a change from the one race here closing week (9/3) in against a higher class and a tough set of mares in Samarita, First Kitten and Long Tall Woman all next out winners. 

#9 BASEBALL POLITICS makes sense as the favorite; he is one of the few in this field that fits the condition with 5wins and the most recent back in May. He has some published works over the winter at FD and was also entered and a vet scratch from a conditional $10k claiming event earlier this month (3/7) at Oaklawn. While logical there are others in the field also capable and might present better value.

#3 CRANKSHAFT with his record of 8 wins to compete here. He comes back from the 112-day layoff though throughout his career has not finished worse than 3^rd off similar breaks. One of those, one year to the date finishing third after making an EASY_LEAD and lacking finish at the 5.5f distance and will be a touch shorter at the 5f here. The tactical speed and inside post could be the edge over his main rivals drawn outside.

#11 BERNIE LOMAX is one of those “logicals” and could battle BASEBALL POLITICS for the role of the favorite. He will also come off the layoff and has some tactical speed which will be necessary to compete to avoid getting caught wide. A similar trip and necessary assertive tactics will be required for #12 JRUE BREEZE one that has the edge on recency coming out of the FG meet. He was claimed back on 2/13 has been given the proper rest and recovery in his form cycle something that was required after running a top, a peak effort (B+) with the win back on 12/21.

#4 LAKE MILLS takes the drop as he returns from the 206-day layoff. The drop is less of a concern after the series of minor finishes and lack of that win in 2023. He fits at this level off the consistency from last season, and certainly capable here; however he will come off the bench and perhaps even more questionable the shorter distance which could have him off the pace. The off the pace trip is also factored for #1 MAQAMAT. 

Curious to see how things unfold as we open the meet. Took a shot with 5-BREAKING NEWS as the horse is fit from races in New Orleans and has the tactical speed to be well positioned early. A return to the Nov 18 race puts him in the mix. 2-UPBEAT MELODY is expected to head for the top as E.T. returns to Hawthorne. He has consistent works since the end of last season and will benefit from the inside draw. 9-LYRICAL POET is the second Rodriguez entrant in here. He also has speed to chase and has the fitness edge as well. He's worth consideration.

We've seen improved efforts in the last couple from 8-MY TENNIS SHOES. He returns from New Orleans and has run well since shortening up and adding blinkers. Looks like he finds enough pace to chase as well. 1-CROWN ROYAL KID debuts for Rivelli with the better works of the Rivelli pair. He gets Lasix first out and is expected to get hustled away from the rail. 3-MINING CAMP is overdue for the maiden score and may welcome the main track return. He regressed with the move to the poly but has been able to remain fit.

Trainer Jon Arnett comes in with a large string of horses this meet. He has 1-ROBUST in here who appears to be a standout based off figures. He is consistently close and although he only shows the one career victory, he was also DQ'd from a race where he crossed the wire first two back. 6-INSIDE THE CIRCLE has just the one win but has finished in the money in over 60% of his races. He has speed and has three drills toward the return. I expect he contends the entire way in here. 7-MCVICKER is lightly raced and takes the class plunge into the spot. It could be in search of a confidence boost as he may take better to the dirt.

Tough to determine who will be ready to handle two turns early in the meet but figure the fitness edge lies with 4-DEFIANT MALICE. Breeding suggests the distance will be no issue as I expect we see more speed from him early as well. His race a 7 1/2 furlongs two back was his best and a stalking trip could be a winning trip today. Expect we see speed from 3-GIANNO in here as he's given another chase at this level after a disappointing debut. He comes in with a pair of good breezes over the track with his most recent from the gate. 5-RUNWITHHEART could improve as he steps up off the claim while adding Lasix. He's another that is bred to run all day and comes in with a bullet drill in preparation for this race.

With the Rivelli debut runner on the rail, I took a shot to try to beat that one in here. 9-GOOD APPLE has a race under his belt as he returns from New Orleans. He switches surface and gets some class relief as he will have to find position from the outside. With no early speed to either side of him, I expect he gets away in good order and contends the entire way. Trainer Eddie Essenpreis has a pair in here with chances as 3-TEMPLE FOOL has runs figures that would contend. He has been working forwardly toward his return but with better efforts coming around two turns, I wonder if he will need a start to post his best effort. 4-HAND OVER MY HEART gets Lasix for the first time as he has also worked nicely toward his 2024 debut. I expect we see speed from him early in here but worry that he may find some company upfront as well.

We find a pair of horses that love this Hawthorne strip in here with 6-FIRST KITTEN and 8-AWESOME SUNDAY. First Kitten is 13-15 ITM over the track with seven wins and has the tactical speed to contend throughout. She has a pair of works toward the return and runs for a barn that is expected to have a big meet. Awesome Sunday has won half of her eight Hawthorne starts and rides a three race win streak into this spot. She needs some pace to chase as she picks up bug rider Navas in here, who could be poised for a big meet. 4-DESSERT FIRST ran well in a pair of starts in New Orleans and has also had Hawthorne success. She is likely to rate in the second flight early and should be in the mix late while at a decent price.

A wildly difficult race as bottom level maidens compete. Coming from a solid barn and with a fitness edge is 7-ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT as she returns from a winter in Florida. She ran a better race in her last, which was her first start with Lasix and second since adding blinkers. With the further drop, I expect we see speed from her and it may be enough to hold on late. 4-GOLD OAK ran some of the better figures of this field but many of those races came on the grass. She also drops in class today as she comes in off a pair of Fairmount works. 1-JOCELYN broke well in her last couple before backing out early. I expect we will need to see that speed early again and let's see if she can run on longer in the lane.

It's a significant class drop but the fact that she runs for a higher tag is a plus in my mind for 1-LILY'S WOOFY. She is fit off races in New Orleans and runs for a barn that will have a big meet. He record over the track is excellent and she typically gets away well from the gate. 7-SMILE AT THE STORM is the other with speed as she comes in off three Fairmount drills. I expect she makes the top early but may need to clear the field as she tends to back out of it when headed. 10-LADY ATLANTIC is the longshot with a shot as she has three of her four lifetime scores at Hawthorne. She gets the benefit of the bug in the saddle and could be positioned right off the pace as she occasionally runs on late.

4-LAKE MILLS trainer Frank Kirby has had this one ready for his return as he has been able to get four consistent works over the track. Hs won't be too far off the pace at any time and should sneak away at a decent price. 9-BASEBALL POLITICS should show speed as he has been working consistently at Fairmount toward the return. He has back class and the drop should be a confidence boost. 6-TAPIT SAM was in good form to close out 2023 and is another with a consistent work pattern. With some others in here likely to take action, he's the one who could sneak away at a price.

2-UPBEAT MELODY gets the nod. He’s been training forwardly, he’s facing his easiest field in a long time, and he races for a barn that brings them back ready. 8-RUSSIAN TO WIN always met better. He’s been working better than most runners in this race. He hasn’t raced in about nine months and the big drop could be a reason for concern but he has shown the ability to come from off the pace and the abundance of speed in this race just might set things up for a closer. 5-BREAKING NEWS ran well in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but has shown little since. But his last local drill suggests that he could be ready for an improved effort.

1-CROWN ROYAL KID is a first timer with strong connections, the rail, good drills, and a rider likely to get him out of the gate in a hurry. The short sprint distance of this race could work in his favor. 3-MINING CAMP could awaken. He’s been racing in Kentucky through the winter with lackluster results but those races were contested on a synthetic track. He was in far better form when running here prior to those Turfway races. 8-MY TENNIS SHOES improved dramatically since they turned him back in distance. He should be dead fit since he’s been racing in Louisiana. Likely comes flying late though this race could be a bit too short for him. 

1-ROBUST looks tough. He’s making his first start for this barn but his new barn is highly successful. This gelding has been in good form in Louisiana but could be ready to kick it into another gear in his Hawthorne debut. Not sure what to make of 7-MCVICKER. The sharp drop in class after only three starts raises all kinds of flags but he is dropping for a reason. Might fit at this level. 6-INSIDE THE CIRCLE hasn’t raced in about 11 months but he always possessed good speed and he could challenge for the lead, at least early, today.

There doesn’t appear to be much speed in this race but I’m guessing that 4-DEFIANT MALICE will provide much of it. He’s stretching out for the first time while making his first start for this barn as well as making his initial Hawthorne start. Might slip to the lead and never look back. 9-REGIMENTAL could hold the edge in fitness. He’s been racing regularly in Louisiana. Gets the possible advantage of an apprentice rider in the irons. 3-GIANNO showed little in his lone start last year but he’s undoubtedly meeting easier in his first start this year. Recent works have been better. Would expect solid improvement.

1-WHOLE LOTTA LUTE appears prepared to make his career debut. He’s been training well. Those fast drills at Fair Grounds suggest he’s going to be the first one out of the gate. His barn sports a high win percentage with their first time starters. This one figures to add to that percentage. 9-GOOD APPLE didn’t beat a runner in his career debut but he was facing good open company, on the turf, in Louisiana and he’ll be meeting a softer bunch of Illinois breds in this spot. 6-STANCE had some good races against maidens last year and he’s been training well for his 2024 debut. Wouldn’t be surprised if he finished in the mix.

This race appears truly competitive, on paper at least. But have to think that 6-FIRST KITTEN could hold some advantage. She’s been very good in starters, both here and in Indiana, and she has scored in seven of her 15 Hawthorne Races. Limited drills are a cause for concern but at five furlongs, she’s probably fit enough. 2-MADELYN BELLE scored in three of her four local races and missed by only a nose in her other. Her races since haven’t been all that great and her recent drills haven’t impressed but she’s now in the powerhouse Rivelli barn so she deserves a long second look. 8-AWESOME SUNDAY and 9-ICY RIVER both deserve second looks. Awesome Sunday rides a three-race win streak at Mountaineer and Icy River has been popping eye-opening drills downstate.

7-ANNA AFTER MIDNITE hasn’t shown a thing yet but all of her races were at higher levels and were contested at Churchill, Gulfstream, and Indiana. Most certainly faces easier here. 10-MAGGIE E has been showing good speed in her races this year but running out of gas late. The move back to dirt at this short sprint distance just might help. 4-GOLD OAK showed some turf ability last year while meeting maiden specials so it’s a little surprising to see her drop to this low-level maiden claimer on the dirt. But this is likely the easiest field she ever encountered so she deserves consideration.

1-LILY’S WOOFY drops to meet probably the easiest field of her career. She never fired versus starter company in her last at Fair Grounds but she was in good form prior. Could be in full control throughout. 3-PALAGO drops back into claimers. She showed little in her last couple and her recent drills have been lackluster but this appears to be an awfully easy spot and her barn has always been good with fresh horses. 4-PLAY TWENTY figures. She hasn’t been in the best of form but she was claimed back by this barn after they lost her back in June. She always raced well for them in the past. Guessing she’ll wake up big time.

9-BASEBALL POLITICS fits the conditions of the race perfectly. He’s making his first start since August but has had a steady diet of drills in preparation for this race. The drop in class is a tremendous help. Could make short work of this field. 4-LAKE MILLS is another with a solid set of drills, suggesting he’ll be sharp for this race. Like top pick, he’s dropping in class. Don’t like his record of one win in 18 local starts but that record seems likely to change quickly with the class relief. 3-CRANKSHAFT is one of the quicker members of this field. He could build a lead quickly and finish with something left at this distance.

P 10 D A Lunchbox 4 Artsalive 5 Don’t Freak Out

P 8 St Lads Beat It 7 Instantaneous 6 Sweet Deisel

P 5 Taurasi 6 Soaring Now 2 Points North

P 1 Geronimo Creek 4 Manhawk 10 Sailors Shadow

P 10 Hp Momentum 3 Whichwaytothebeach 2 Poseidon Seelster

P 3 Stormalong 5 Nightime Dancer 4 Larceny

P 2 Pipewrench Charlie 1 Toronto 3 Kinkaid Seelster

P 7 High Voltage Deo 4 Odds On Kickoff 1 Kaptain Karlos

P 6 Hungry Man 5 Stone Carver 4 Codename Cigar Box

P 7 Lets Tie One On 1 Ilikemebettor 3 Wheels On Fire

P 3 Capitano Italiano 5 Bolt Power 7 Legion Seelster