Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 HOLY IMAGE is worth a value look as an individual she fits at this level as well as any. While she is coming off the layoff, that is a more neutral factor as so are others and looking at the figures from HOLY IMAGE off the layoff, including her debut win, those numbers fit with this field. Most of her career she has been placed at a higher level and even the two races at this condition last year, she was competitive in both –  a WIDE trip in August and TRAFFIC earning a B- OptixGRADE in September with both events holding a higher OFR/par than today’s race.

#5 SHORT STRAW early speed. She should hold a pace advantage in today’s field and shorter 5f distance, something she requires as she lacks finish and even in prior local starts has come up short with the lone lead, drifting out late and in her maiden win last October finished clear though was all out shortening stride late. The recency edge and weight break upgrades #4 ONACOUNTA. She has some positional speed and finishing ability where she could put herself into the race and if SHORT STRAW starts coming back to the field, ONACOUNTA could be right there. #6 EVIE JEAN is a consistent check earner and kept in the mix here in that role with the benefit of established Hawthorne form; form in line with #7 PRIMITY one that has moved forward with racing (similar for #2 DRAGONFLY KISSES) and one to follow.

#3 SUNDAY SPEIGHT is the wild card in this spot. She could present the most upside as a lightly raced type and all of her races to date recorded as a juvenile to suggest she can move forward with maturity and some of her figures are not far off the older established types. In addition, she has spent most of her career against makes the lone start against fillies was the higher N2 allowance back in October at HS Indy where she was a legit longshot in that group. The connections coming back this season should be looking for where she fits. 

#7 SCHMOOZIN has the recent pattern of layoff lines that is not ideal, though should hold with price compensation and intent. They will return to Hawthorne, a first time in a long time with two starts here back in 2019 during their juvenile season and still in the MSW ranks. Their figures at the time fit today’s par and consistent with the dirt sprint form throughout their career. They will shift back to the dirt picking up Colon, a rider that had some early season success last year and the F. Villa barn as well with limited starters (25) picked up a couple of wins and another handful in the money.

#4 RED HORNET will make his return off the layoff though was not necessarily the plan as he was down in FL and entered a couple of times at GP with some vet scratches unable to make a race and more recently “trainer scratch” from a $5k N3L event on 3/20 at TP to run here instead. The drop today is not a concern and could be taken as even a positive.

That is a potential contrast to #2 COALMINER’S KITTEN takes a massive drop returning from the layoff and there are reservations with that type of move.  In contrast to RED HORNET, COALMINER’S KITTEN has local experience with his races here last season against a much higher level. Running back to those efforts he fits, though must rely on return to those efforts to transfer as those events were also at a much, much longer distance.

The longer distances is also noted for #8 SLAVA UKRAINI as he makes his return here at the sprint distance and could be using this race for fitness going forward – a pattern that was used last year leading into the 4/20 maiden win. The difference this year is they will not race protected and perhaps a bit of a gamble they will get ignored off the recent running lines and finishing positions, though should not a subtle trip and NO_PUSH on 10/14 closing out the 2023 season and unable to show (IMPROVE?)  their best on the day.

#1 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN holds early speed, the rail, a weight break, and local form that fits for this N3 condition. He requires a top effort coming off the bench though at least one can be assured where he is right from the break. I’M YOUR CAPTAIN was collared late by #3 SOVIET STANDARD last June though that race came with a few starts into the season and with the extra furlong, a 6f distance. 

#1 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS has some distance limitations though at the right level and this race just about a mile should be fine. He has the local experience at the route distance, the place finish here last season coming off a longer 236-day layoff getting run down after setting a fast pace near the wire by Cadet Corps, a pretty solid racehorse that won right back and has been holding his own in allowance company since.

#6 ROCKET HOTSHOT has plenty of stamina with this distance not a concern at all. He can often given himself a hurdle from off the pace and while he is unlikely to be on or near the lead he needs to be assertively ridden to not leave too much to do late. He will also give up recency coming off the layoff, though can run off the bench he finish second at the $25k level off the bench last March and a repeat of that effort has him right back in the mix here.

#3 BAKENEKO has turf as his preferred surface though does find a class change to run here on the main to play as an equalizer. They will also run back in for a tag and have been protected since the play finish last June, a finish with O. Hernandez aboard and will take back over today. 

The Arnett pair come into this race with some early speed and #6 FEROCITY the edge of sprint speed over #1 ALYANAABI one that has not been as effective in the three sprint starts to date. #2 MR. CHARMING also has been more effective at the route distance and while he has some honest sprint efforts, the 5f is shorter than his ideal.

#5 D’ YANK makes his run from off the pace though comes into this event with recency in the second start off the layoff and a good prep and fitness shipping in from the open $5k class at TP. D’ YANK throughout his career has improved in a “second off”  pattern including when picking up his first 2023 win.  

#1 PURPLE OCTOPUS was reclaimed after losing him off the claim back in December and finds the class drop with the return to this circuit. His one race here was on the turf last August coming up short in MSW company, though on the day was not at his best and noted with the layoff that followed. His current form and figures have him sitting as a horse to beat and as the expected favorite once again he will look to finally fulfil his duty in that role. The edge on recency and slight class edge over former stablemate #3 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX coming out of the slightly higher MCL events at the FG.

His stablemate #7 RAISERICHIESRANSOM presents some overall upside from the juvenile season and second start as a sophomore though still must improve and does not hold any edge as it currently sits over his older, more established rivals and likely to be the second choice without value in that role.  #4 EIGHT MAY comes in off the layoff though has recorded consistent figures and takes the class drop to move up naturally. He is a 5yo gelding and does not present much upside though running back to what he has previously done, he could catch the right group. 

#5 MOONLIGHT ROAD will make his second start for the connections and a switch back to the main track. He turned in a competitive race at CD in his second start making a late CLOSE behind pacesetting winner, Carbone and place finisher Goldbrick, a good horse with those two winning this year at Oaklawn. He has not show much early speed though there are runners in this field likely to set the pace with #4 SKYPASS and #6 GIMME THE CANDY – and would not be surprised to see the two T. Tracy IA-bred FTS #1 I AM LOWKEY and #3 SKALKAHO show early speed with the two showing the quick half-mile gate move on 3/10.

#8 YOUNG MISCHIEF will also debut here and just one of two four-year-old runners in the field. The barn was a perfect one-for-one with debuting runners here at Hawthorne last year with first time starting juvenile Jack Sprat at 7-2 and in 2022 did not debut a runner at Hawthorne though sent out four FTS in MSW company at Fan Duel with 2 wins and a show. Jockey Bailon was aboard for one of those wins at 14-1 and the show at 11.9-1. 

As far as #6 GIMME THE CANDY he was GREEN on debut and still very “studdish” in the paddock and on the track PRERACE- when he was scheduled to make his second start on August 13^th though acted up at the GATE and was a late scratch going to post as the heavy 1-2 favorite. 

Trainer Michele Boyce will send out a pair of fillies that appear well-intended for this meet and fit second off the layoff. #4 R KATIEBUG has the foundation and maturity edge over #2 RIETTA splitting the pair, though number wise there is not much between them, and their form and class presents and edge over many in this group.

#8 MISS RIVER RAT is looking for another opportunity to get to the grass and should have that this meet. While she will switch back to the main track, she is capable on this surface. She broke her maiden in statebred company winning the Debutante stakes dominantly from off-the-pace in 2022. She held her form on the main at FG though lacked racing luck with the two “trips” an EX – EXCUSE (and BTL) with TROUBLE in December and in a tougher (higher OFR) in January was given no favors with a rough break (TROUBLE_S) and WIDE run.

#6 BAR MONEY presents upside all around and worth a follow as this might not be the time and place as she makes her seasonal debut off the 138-day layoff and takes on older for the first time. 

#10 CHRISTMAS PRESENT is competitive here on his best day and had a better season than the winless record gives credit. Going back to last year, trainer Brian Cook started out strong with three wins in the first few weeks of the season and the presence of O. Mojica is definitely interesting and could suggest intent.

#8 MILLARD’S SMILE comes into this race and return to Hawthorne with current form and at the lowest level possibly in his career. Even though he was in for the $5k tag last month at the FG that race was a higher par than today’s race. Today’s par is lighter than his races here last season, where class played a role in the outcome and found the class drop effective at FD and even those three starts held a higher par than today. Rival #9 IMPULSIVENESS also brings in recency and decent local record still looking for that win. His races here last season around two turns were competitive though a slightly different, perhaps softer N2 condition.

#4 ONE WAY HOME gets in on class eligibility and takes the step up in class shifting back to this circuit. He could have just found his form and the route distance right up his alley and that improving form closing out 2023 fits on par as they return here. 

#5 BALADINE has the one race at this level last July and running back to that effort here he is a contender. That race is not a one off for him as he has run consistently and even higher figures in the past. He is also relatively lightly raced making his 5yo debut here and with some early speed could get the connections on the board opening week.

#9 CLYDE’S GREEN GO has yet to run a bad race, and another lightly raced for his age that has been consistent throughout his career. That will be required to hold again off a layoff and facing winners for the first time. 

Tough race to start the day as there is very little form among these. Went to 7-PRIMITY on top as she has worked consistently toward her return and gets some class relief. Her only career score came at this distance and she ran a solid third against better going 5/8ths last spring. 4-ONACOUNTA has raced through the winter in Ohio and comes in off a better performance last out. She picks up bug Navas in the saddle and should get enough pace to chase. 5-SHORT STRAW is fast early, but stamina is always an issue. She was able to break through for a victory in her last and comes back with three works leading into today's race. Expect her to make the lead, but let's see if she can hold onto it.

Curious as to how this race shapes up as there are a few that may be looking to go longer in their next start. One that should like the distance is 4-RED HORNET as he has sprinted on the turf with success. He only has one main track start, which came in an off the turf race at Belterra last May but he clearly held his own in that spot as well. 5-EMPTY HOLSTER was more of a route horse early in his career but has recently seen some success while sprinting. He has just the one work coming into here so we will see if he needs a race. 2-COALMINER'S KITTEN has three works this year as he comes back to the track where he won last summer. He may be destined for two turns later on this meet but can't be tossed out for a barn that figures to win their share of races.

We go two turns in this spot as a horse for the course looks to be tough. With little pace, I expect 4-GITA'S LAD to scamper away early and look to wire this field. He doesn't show much when racing away from Hawthorne, but when over this track he has won 10 of 28 starts and half of his 12 starts at the distance. What scares me is just the one workout leading toward his return. 6-ROCKET HOTSHOT is another that has raced well at Hawthorne and has a pair of works toward the return. He takes the drop in class and figures in this short field. 1-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS was claimed for $12,500 two starts back and followed with an even effort at Gulfstream in his next. He does have some tactical speed and should be in a good stalking spot.

A short sprint with the leftover group who didn't get into the Saturday opener. Trainer Jon Arnett has two with a chance as 6-FEROCITY draws the outside. He has raced well through the winter at Delta and comes in with a good work over the track. Expect a strong effort from a stalking spot today. 5-D'YANK has run well at Hawthorne, hitting this board in 10 of 25 starts over the track. He tends to rate back a bit early and run on late but have been a good fit for Arrieta as he returns in the saddle. 1-ALYANAABI is the second Arnett in here as he has speed to possibly steal this race. He shipped over to Fair Grounds for his last start and held his own as he chased in there and didn't give way until late. Look for him to try to steal this one on the front end.

A pair of Rivelli runners in here but I'll look to try to beat them as I gave the nod to 4-EIGHT MAY from the barn of Jim Watkins. He takes a big class plunge off the layoff but has worked consistently toward the return. The race looks to have enough pace to chase as I expect he runs on late. 1-PURPLE OCTOPUS is one likely to show some speed from the inside. He drops after being claimed, then claimed back for $15,000. With E.T. aboard I fully expect he is gunning for the front. 7-RAISERICHIESRANSOM is the second Rivelli runner as he comes in with just one work. With the outside draw I expect he stalks the pace and should be closing some ground in the lane.

Solid field of maidens to start the late Pick 4 as 6-GIMME THE CANDY makes his third career start for trainer Larry Rivelli. He has shows some early foot in each of his first two races and took action in both. He comes in with a nice pattern of drills in New Orleans that transitioned to a bullet work at Hawthorne leading into this spot. Expect him to clear and possibly never look back. 5-MOONLIGHT ROAD has raced competitively against some quality bunches to open his career and split the field over a wet turf course in his last. He's likely to rate early but should run on in the lane. 3-SKALKAHO figures to be a factor as he debuts with Lasix. The Iowa bred has gotten four works over the track coming into this race, including a very sharp gate drill on March 10. Don't be surprised if he shows speed in here.

A nice allowance field coming into this race as Michele Boyce runs a pair. While the question mark surrounds how she will handle the dirt, 2-RIETTA has been good in her field two starts and has posted a couple of works over the track. I expect she shows speed in here as she makes her second start since adding Lasix. 6-BAR MONEY gets Lasix for the first time today as well as getting a key rider change to Centeno.. She improved with each start last fall and has worked consistently toward her return. Expect to see her running on late. 4-R KATIEBUG ran a pair of nice races here last summer as she has tactical speed and gets Felix back in the saddle. She backed out in the lane in her last but was also pushing the pace in that spot from and outside draw.

There is a bit of early pace in here but fitness will be the key as many horses return after being laid off for a bit and will be asked to go two turns. 6-HURTS SO BAD is one that has been racing consistently and has had success over this track and at the distance. He tends to run his best while on the lead or close and is one that has shown the ability to dig in when challenged. 8-MILLARD'S SMILE needs to pace to chase as he will rate and run on late. He's another who is fit off races in New Orleans and gets the benefit of bug Navas in the saddle. 1-BLURT is a longshot threat who could be used two ways. Being the second Rodriguez runner in the race, he could push the pace to set things up for Millard's Smile. But he did also string together three consecutive wins here last summer and could be overlooked at the windows off of recent poor form.

Tough to figure out what to do with a horse like 9-CLYDE'S GREEN GO. After debuting in 2020 and racing three times in 2021 he was away for over two years. He popped back up in a state-bred maiden race last November and won easily at 4-5. He has worked well toward the return and I take it as a positive sign that the connections are choosing to run him for the $37,500 compared to the $25,000 claiming tag. Let's see if he can stalk and pounce. 5-BALADINE has three works toward the return, including a snappy 3/8 breeze on March 17. He has tactical speed and could be pushed along with Baird in the saddle. 2-SPANISH KISS is another with three drills coming back as he could also get a nice pace setup ahead of him. Don't be surprised if he contends while at a price.

Not in love with any in here but 5-SHORT STRAW does seem most likely. She graduated in her last start downstate. Her works have been ok. They’ll have to catch her. 3-SUNDAY SPEIGHT hasn’t shown a thing in her three starts since breaking her maiden but the drop in class should be able to get her headed in the right direction. 7-PRIMITY hasn’t been able to beat state breds but she’s another that has been working fairly well and this field did come up awfully easy.

I’m going to make a case against the most logical runners in here and make a case for one that seems overmatched. 3-SOVIET STANDARD is likely to be overlooked in the wagering but he’s a pure dirt sprinter and just popped a blistering gate workout. The track yesterday seemed to be favoring inside early speed types and he fits that description admirably. 2-COALMINER’S KITTEN drops in class to make his first start for this barn. However, he hasn’t raced since August and he’s been primarily a route runner. Somewhat pedestrian drills suggest he won’t be showing any unusual early speed. Like Coalminer’s Kitten, 4-RED HORNET drops in class and races for a new barn, though he was claimed, However, although he has experience sprinting, all 24 of his races have been on turf. 

1-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS has had two good races since dropping to this level and both came on tougher circuits. He finished fourth at Gulfstream in last, his first start after getting claimed by this barn. Drew the rail. Stretches out. Could be right there throughout. 4-GITA’S LAD is hard to gauge. He stopped badly in his last couple but those races were contested on a synthetic track. Although his form since getting claimed by this barn leaves a lot to be desired, he has won 10 of his 28 local starts while finishing in the money another 10 times. 3-BAKENEKO raced on turf in eight of his last nine starts but he’s probably been better on dirt for most of his career. He’s had a couple decent drills since his last race in Louisiana. Might fit with these.

6-FEROCITY was probably a bit overmatched in last at Delta but he was in far better form when racing near this level in his prior starts. Makes his first start for this barn while making his local debut. Figures to go right to the lead. Might never look back. 5-D’YANK didn’t handle the synthetic track in last but he was in great form at the end of 2023, finishing second in his last four starts. 2-MISTER CHARMING has his moments. He won only three of 59 starts in his career but he was racing competitively at the end of last year and he could pick up right where he left off.

1-PURPLE OCTOPUS seems most likely. He’s been stopping pretty badly in Louisiana but he’s meeting probably his easiest field yet. Has speed and the rail. It could be enough. 4-EIGHT MAY drops sharply. He’s probably better going long but he’s been training well toward his first start of the year and he’ll be meeting much easier here. 7-RAISERICHIESRANSOM, the other Rivelli-trained runner, doesn’t seem to have as much upside as top pick but he is Rivelli trained and he gets a sharp rider as pilot.

5-MOONLIGHT ROAD hasn’t been really competitive yet but he’s been meeting some very tough maidens. He split the field in a turf sprint in last at the Fair Grounds but think he might be better on the main track despite his pedigree. 6-GIMME THE CANDY was heavily favored in both of his starts. He finished second in a dirt sprint here to start his career but then had an uninspired turf sprint in Louisiana last time out. But we know he owns good speed. Might break on the lead and never look back. 1-I AM LOWKEY, an Iowa bred, has been training well for his career debut. Could easily have an impact in this field.

Trainer Michele Boyce entered a pair of talented fillies in this spot and not sure which of the two will turn out better, or even be better in this spot. But I’m thinking that 2-RIETTA might hold the advantage, even though she never ran on dirt. She’s had two races, both against open company, and she won one of them and was narrowly defeated in the other, losing by only a nose. 4-R KATIEBUG beat only one in her last start but she was coming off a long layoff and racing on a synthetic track for the first time. She did run well on the dirt here last summer. She could easily improve. 8-MISS RIVER RAT hasn’t been showing a lot recently but she has been facing food open company in Louisiana. She won the Debutante when she last raced here in December. She could easily wake up with the return to Illinois-bred company. 

6-HURTS SO BAD could hold the edge. He’s dropping in class in his first start for this barn. Like that he’s been racing so he could hold a fitness edge over many of his rivals. He ran well here in the past so we know he can handle the track. 4-ONE WAY HOLD seems logical. He won his last three starts. Unfortunately, he hasn’t raced in four months and seems to have had only one short work in preparation for this race. 9-IMPULSIVENESS has been racing over his head since getting claimed by this barn last May. He’s still eligible for a non-winners of three but has had a couple of recent races against far tougher company in Florida and he just might be able to surprise this group.

1-SILVER CHILLER has speed and the rail. Good early speed won most of the races yesterday, including a win by this barn in the first start of the meet. Maybe they can do it again. 5-BALADINE is the likely favorite. He has basically met better rivals and he did finish third the only time he raced at this level. He’s been training well toward this start. Might get it done. 8-EL MUCHO had two races here last year and ran well in both of them. He’s had a couple good works recently and they should have him fit enough to stay competitive at this distance.

P 3 Hazel Sparks 6 Seasidelady 1 Art Of Sport

T 7 Warrawee Yang 6 Emerald’s Legacy 2 Shamrock

P 2 Number One Hit 3 Aplin Hanover 1 Michael

P 4 Arroya’s Dance 9 Miss Mary Mach 2 Tally Two

P 7 Catch Me Conrad 6 Contact Zone 2 Shadows Terror

T 7 Busy Making Moni 6 Winning Shadow 5 Archery Seelster

P 3 One Last Stand 6 Hes A Sweetheart 2 Fly Charley Fly

P 6 Sp Dancinwithstarz 8 Blueberry Brandi 2 Honeymoon Trail

P 7 Birthday 6 The Real Way 5 Martins Millions

P 6 Cruiser Cancelled 1 Sis 3 Really Sam

P 5 Incredible Man 1 Coop A Loop 8 American Fling

P 4 Roan Color 9 Mohawk Seelster 8 Bronx Seelster

P 2 Lloyd’s All In 5 Pound Sign 4 Wehadababyyetzaboy

P 1 The Bus 5 Marsea Beaucoup 4 Blue Spanx

T 6 Double Account 3 Rattling Pine 2 Best Time Hanover