Handicapper Tips & Picks

2-UPBEAT MELODY gets the nod. He’s been training forwardly, he’s facing his easiest field in a long time, and he races for a barn that brings them back ready. 8-RUSSIAN TO WIN always met better. He’s been working better than most runners in this race. He hasn’t raced in about nine months and the big drop could be a reason for concern but he has shown the ability to come from off the pace and the abundance of speed in this race just might set things up for a closer. 5-BREAKING NEWS ran well in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but has shown little since. But his last local drill suggests that he could be ready for an improved effort.

1-CROWN ROYAL KID is a first timer with strong connections, the rail, good drills, and a rider likely to get him out of the gate in a hurry. The short sprint distance of this race could work in his favor. 3-MINING CAMP could awaken. He’s been racing in Kentucky through the winter with lackluster results but those races were contested on a synthetic track. He was in far better form when running here prior to those Turfway races. 8-MY TENNIS SHOES improved dramatically since they turned him back in distance. He should be dead fit since he’s been racing in Louisiana. Likely comes flying late though this race could be a bit too short for him. 

1-ROBUST looks tough. He’s making his first start for this barn but his new barn is highly successful. This gelding has been in good form in Louisiana but could be ready to kick it into another gear in his Hawthorne debut. Not sure what to make of 7-MCVICKER. The sharp drop in class after only three starts raises all kinds of flags but he is dropping for a reason. Might fit at this level. 6-INSIDE THE CIRCLE hasn’t raced in about 11 months but he always possessed good speed and he could challenge for the lead, at least early, today.

There doesn’t appear to be much speed in this race but I’m guessing that 4-DEFIANT MALICE will provide much of it. He’s stretching out for the first time while making his first start for this barn as well as making his initial Hawthorne start. Might slip to the lead and never look back. 9-REGIMENTAL could hold the edge in fitness. He’s been racing regularly in Louisiana. Gets the possible advantage of an apprentice rider in the irons. 3-GIANNO showed little in his lone start last year but he’s undoubtedly meeting easier in his first start this year. Recent works have been better. Would expect solid improvement.

1-WHOLE LOTTA LUTE appears prepared to make his career debut. He’s been training well. Those fast drills at Fair Grounds suggest he’s going to be the first one out of the gate. His barn sports a high win percentage with their first time starters. This one figures to add to that percentage. 9-GOOD APPLE didn’t beat a runner in his career debut but he was facing good open company, on the turf, in Louisiana and he’ll be meeting a softer bunch of Illinois breds in this spot. 6-STANCE had some good races against maidens last year and he’s been training well for his 2024 debut. Wouldn’t be surprised if he finished in the mix.

This race appears truly competitive, on paper at least. But have to think that 6-FIRST KITTEN could hold some advantage. She’s been very good in starters, both here and in Indiana, and she has scored in seven of her 15 Hawthorne Races. Limited drills are a cause for concern but at five furlongs, she’s probably fit enough. 2-MADELYN BELLE scored in three of her four local races and missed by only a nose in her other. Her races since haven’t been all that great and her recent drills haven’t impressed but she’s now in the powerhouse Rivelli barn so she deserves a long second look. 8-AWESOME SUNDAY and 9-ICY RIVER both deserve second looks. Awesome Sunday rides a three-race win streak at Mountaineer and Icy River has been popping eye-opening drills downstate.

7-ANNA AFTER MIDNITE hasn’t shown a thing yet but all of her races were at higher levels and were contested at Churchill, Gulfstream, and Indiana. Most certainly faces easier here. 10-MAGGIE E has been showing good speed in her races this year but running out of gas late. The move back to dirt at this short sprint distance just might help. 4-GOLD OAK showed some turf ability last year while meeting maiden specials so it’s a little surprising to see her drop to this low-level maiden claimer on the dirt. But this is likely the easiest field she ever encountered so she deserves consideration.

1-LILY’S WOOFY drops to meet probably the easiest field of her career. She never fired versus starter company in her last at Fair Grounds but she was in good form prior. Could be in full control throughout. 3-PALAGO drops back into claimers. She showed little in her last couple and her recent drills have been lackluster but this appears to be an awfully easy spot and her barn has always been good with fresh horses. 4-PLAY TWENTY figures. She hasn’t been in the best of form but she was claimed back by this barn after they lost her back in June. She always raced well for them in the past. Guessing she’ll wake up big time.

9-BASEBALL POLITICS fits the conditions of the race perfectly. He’s making his first start since August but has had a steady diet of drills in preparation for this race. The drop in class is a tremendous help. Could make short work of this field. 4-LAKE MILLS is another with a solid set of drills, suggesting he’ll be sharp for this race. Like top pick, he’s dropping in class. Don’t like his record of one win in 18 local starts but that record seems likely to change quickly with the class relief. 3-CRANKSHAFT is one of the quicker members of this field. He could build a lead quickly and finish with something left at this distance.