Handicapper Tips & Picks

Not in love with any in here but 5-SHORT STRAW does seem most likely. She graduated in her last start downstate. Her works have been ok. They’ll have to catch her. 3-SUNDAY SPEIGHT hasn’t shown a thing in her three starts since breaking her maiden but the drop in class should be able to get her headed in the right direction. 7-PRIMITY hasn’t been able to beat state breds but she’s another that has been working fairly well and this field did come up awfully easy.

I’m going to make a case against the most logical runners in here and make a case for one that seems overmatched. 3-SOVIET STANDARD is likely to be overlooked in the wagering but he’s a pure dirt sprinter and just popped a blistering gate workout. The track yesterday seemed to be favoring inside early speed types and he fits that description admirably. 2-COALMINER’S KITTEN drops in class to make his first start for this barn. However, he hasn’t raced since August and he’s been primarily a route runner. Somewhat pedestrian drills suggest he won’t be showing any unusual early speed. Like Coalminer’s Kitten, 4-RED HORNET drops in class and races for a new barn, though he was claimed, However, although he has experience sprinting, all 24 of his races have been on turf. 

1-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS has had two good races since dropping to this level and both came on tougher circuits. He finished fourth at Gulfstream in last, his first start after getting claimed by this barn. Drew the rail. Stretches out. Could be right there throughout. 4-GITA’S LAD is hard to gauge. He stopped badly in his last couple but those races were contested on a synthetic track. Although his form since getting claimed by this barn leaves a lot to be desired, he has won 10 of his 28 local starts while finishing in the money another 10 times. 3-BAKENEKO raced on turf in eight of his last nine starts but he’s probably been better on dirt for most of his career. He’s had a couple decent drills since his last race in Louisiana. Might fit with these.

6-FEROCITY was probably a bit overmatched in last at Delta but he was in far better form when racing near this level in his prior starts. Makes his first start for this barn while making his local debut. Figures to go right to the lead. Might never look back. 5-D’YANK didn’t handle the synthetic track in last but he was in great form at the end of 2023, finishing second in his last four starts. 2-MISTER CHARMING has his moments. He won only three of 59 starts in his career but he was racing competitively at the end of last year and he could pick up right where he left off.

1-PURPLE OCTOPUS seems most likely. He’s been stopping pretty badly in Louisiana but he’s meeting probably his easiest field yet. Has speed and the rail. It could be enough. 4-EIGHT MAY drops sharply. He’s probably better going long but he’s been training well toward his first start of the year and he’ll be meeting much easier here. 7-RAISERICHIESRANSOM, the other Rivelli-trained runner, doesn’t seem to have as much upside as top pick but he is Rivelli trained and he gets a sharp rider as pilot.

5-MOONLIGHT ROAD hasn’t been really competitive yet but he’s been meeting some very tough maidens. He split the field in a turf sprint in last at the Fair Grounds but think he might be better on the main track despite his pedigree. 6-GIMME THE CANDY was heavily favored in both of his starts. He finished second in a dirt sprint here to start his career but then had an uninspired turf sprint in Louisiana last time out. But we know he owns good speed. Might break on the lead and never look back. 1-I AM LOWKEY, an Iowa bred, has been training well for his career debut. Could easily have an impact in this field.

Trainer Michele Boyce entered a pair of talented fillies in this spot and not sure which of the two will turn out better, or even be better in this spot. But I’m thinking that 2-RIETTA might hold the advantage, even though she never ran on dirt. She’s had two races, both against open company, and she won one of them and was narrowly defeated in the other, losing by only a nose. 4-R KATIEBUG beat only one in her last start but she was coming off a long layoff and racing on a synthetic track for the first time. She did run well on the dirt here last summer. She could easily improve. 8-MISS RIVER RAT hasn’t been showing a lot recently but she has been facing food open company in Louisiana. She won the Debutante when she last raced here in December. She could easily wake up with the return to Illinois-bred company. 

6-HURTS SO BAD could hold the edge. He’s dropping in class in his first start for this barn. Like that he’s been racing so he could hold a fitness edge over many of his rivals. He ran well here in the past so we know he can handle the track. 4-ONE WAY HOLD seems logical. He won his last three starts. Unfortunately, he hasn’t raced in four months and seems to have had only one short work in preparation for this race. 9-IMPULSIVENESS has been racing over his head since getting claimed by this barn last May. He’s still eligible for a non-winners of three but has had a couple of recent races against far tougher company in Florida and he just might be able to surprise this group.

1-SILVER CHILLER has speed and the rail. Good early speed won most of the races yesterday, including a win by this barn in the first start of the meet. Maybe they can do it again. 5-BALADINE is the likely favorite. He has basically met better rivals and he did finish third the only time he raced at this level. He’s been training well toward this start. Might get it done. 8-EL MUCHO had two races here last year and ran well in both of them. He’s had a couple good works recently and they should have him fit enough to stay competitive at this distance.