Handicapper Tips & Picks

Looking at this race (and start of the Place Pick 8) #6 BALI DREAMING becomes a use as one that has some recency, early speed, and consistency. She might not be the “best” in the race but has those other factors on her side along with Emigh the two finishing 1^st and 2^nd together here last season.

#2 KAELY’S SISTER is likely that “best” horse and going out for a live barn and the first start this meet for Loveberry should have some intent, though has the long 552-day layoff into this race. Stablemate #1 VIOLA broke maiden on debut late last season and has remained consistent in terms of figures, though has not shown much improvement. Her consistency could be enough here though could be telling where Loveberry lands.

#4 MALLOY as the morning line favorite also is strong in this group as an individual, though has the pattern of excessive layoff lines. Most over her races to date were contested at the longer distances whether it be route or sprint, something that also carries to #7 INIDICIA. MALLOY fits here and coming back from the 2/14 event last out as part of the BLANKET (B OptixGRADE) finish at the wire under a similar par.

The pattern of layoff lines is the prime concern for #5 SHEZ STUCK UP another that has a level of consistency when right and likely the horse that gets “lost” on the board – #3 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT has similar layoff lines as a concern and could be shorter of the two and from her ML given the connections and coming into this race “second off” with a strong local record.

#2 RIBALDRY cuts back in distance though holds some competitive sprint races even on the dirt keying off a show finish sprinting 5f back going back to her second career start at Tampa. The live connections ship in where she will find some class relief with a lower par coming in from Turfway that could just move her up naturally.

#5 SWEET NELLIE should also move up naturally with the return to Hawthorne and off some subtle trips at Oaklawn and less than ideal TACTIC- (uncomfortable behind horses) last month from Gallardo as he looks to improve on that here. They should show early speed something that could make it tougher on #4 LUNARCHY.  

#3 HALLIE’S RAINBOW also has early speed and could be the speed of the speed and skip clear if the other two try and rate. She can be tough on the front end, could be back to top form for Mosier and comes in with some steady works back to a level where she can compete. She closed out her year on 11/18 closing day of the FD meet and common race with #6 ZENCHUA SKY one that came flying late with a huge CLOSE after a poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and that strong late kick could have her rally for a share here. #7 NIFF was an also ran in that race and while she has some form here from prior seasons, she lost her form after leaving the Vanden Berg barn on 3/23 and that is the challenge coming back this year and looking to reset for Zawitz. 

Trainer Dee Poulos has started out the meet live picking up a win with Baladine on Sunday and a huge late closing run with Dynablue, one that finished 4^th, just off the board, though a massive competitive run – the barn has two in this race and keying off the pair to take a stand in this tricky leg. #8 LUCKY SHOT is one they thought highly of early on trying a pair of stakes races in KY as a juvenile and protected most of his career. He found this level and the sprint distance last year on the main with consistency and should find similar here. Many of his competitive races were with Mojica in the saddle and he jumps to stablemate #6 PINBALLER here, though the barn uses all different riders. PINBALLER returns from the layoff and the last time he came off the layoff he won back in 12/22 though did have a slight set up. He has competitive sprint form and with some wins last summer though also with some favorable trips. 

#2 GOLDEN HORNET has the license to rebound as he makes his second start back off the layoff. Going back to 3/3 at Oaklawn Park he might have lost his race in the GATE, very fractious and did not get away all that well before a RUSH to the lead and PRESSED on a Fast early pace. The race was a strong race as they went Fast early and Very Fast late, the winner a good runner called Happy is a Choice making a midpack stalking run for the win. They have run well here and with Loveberry aboard, though the connections are willing to take as risk to run for the claiming tag today, perhaps a calculated move that would open up some starter allowance options should their not be any $40k takers.

From a pace standpoint, GOLDEN HORNET has legit early speed, though there are others in this field that can keep him honest and might include #7 FEVER NATION from the outside and #4 TILTED TOWERS, the other in the field racing for the $40k tag. The post position for #1 COMISKEY PARK given the rail draw might also have them without too many options from the rail given the 5f distance and complexion of the field.

COMISKEY PARK is one of two for A. Hernandez/Donato in this race and one that is capable here and at this level though needs the right trip from the inside, a change coming back on this circuit. A stalking trip could fall to stablemate #5 CORTESE one that has some early speed to put himself in the race though from the outside can allow J. Felix options and look for the right type of scenario, something along the lines of the 8/30 trip and win.

#6 LOOKIN FOR BALA got the better of CORTEST on 7/20 though a different portion of their cycle as they had a few starts and could be necessary coming back today to get that race under their belt though a sapid consistent racehorse that has only off the board in that lone return start last May. #3 SHACKLEFORD STRONG is also a tough race horses and coming back to Hawthorne from Oaklawn where they have kept their form and recent win. They are in top form and makes sense the connections take the class rise, though is still a test to hold their form, though certainly can be enticed to keep on the radar at the suggested double digit odds. 

This race starts with #3 ROBUST coming back from a win and strong figure last week. On repeat he can be tough. The question is can he compete as he has does seem to prefer more time between starts and has had to work hard in those two most recent races. In terms of trip, he does not need the lead and moving off the inside could allow for options though on the lead could find company or give up his edge on the front end something that rival #8 WEST ISLAND could capitalize on.

Playing the scenario the two cancel each other out that opens up the race for some chaos. That being the main opinion tough to make any knocks on the others in the field especially those at prices though will upgrade #6 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN. He will wheel back to make his second start of the meet and a subtle change in class. They raced in the $12.5k level though were actually in the race for the higher $18.8k tag using the statebred rule to run for .5x plus the claiming tag when in against open. They will utilize the same play here racing for the higher $7.5k tag to suggest some intent as they drop, but not quite drop in for $5k. 

#5 RIGHT ON RICHIE could be the speed of the speed (Q1) in this race. He is placed where he can compete and as an IL -bred will race for the higher $7.5k tag in this event. Trainer G. Butler is looking for their first win this meet (at the time of this analysis) though have been knocking on the door sending out live and picking up checks with two place finishes on opening day and the 5^th place finishing Dragonfly Kisses on Sunday, though appeared intent for that one as they did open with a ton of early money as the betting favorite before drifting to 6-1; all three piloted by A. Bendezu.

#4 PERFECT WAGER has some recency as he makes his return to Hawthorne and hold form over this course and two turn distance. He will find a subtle change in class from the more recent MVR races against open company where he has held his form and from a figure stand point. Keying off those route races, he has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race though not enough to run or try to run with RIGHT ON RICHIE whereas some others might including #1 UNIFIED WEEKEND assigned the ML favorite role.

A contentious pace could assist horses from off the pace and tougher to support #8 TONALTALITARIAN coming off the long, long 518-day layoff whereas #7 NOBLE PURSUIT holds the edge on recency and while his current stronger form has been on the turf/synth (similar for #2 SON OF GRACE) he is capable on the dirt at the right level and kept at the preferred route distance. 

The two Boyce runners could hold an edge in this field and the edge over the experiences runners and older runners (that could open a door if any) they will take on for the first time. The two showed up in a common race last November at FD, the Debutante stakes where #2 BEEHIVE was favored and the other, other Boyce runner Rumbrandt picked up the win at 5-1 and one we will see later on in the finale. The race shape BUNCHED early assisted Rumbrandt with a tracking trip with both #2 BEEHIVE and #5 DEVIL on the pace contested between horses. The three Boyce runners finished together at the wire DEVIL showed some GRIT late making her stablemate work for the win.

#3 CHERYL’S APPEAL is the lone FTS and can be dangerous for capable, live connections though also likely to get attention for those connections. She does hold a pair of local works, though not as quick as the barn can often work horses, so we shall see.

In terms of the older runners, #7 TU ROYAL could have the edge of the group and with experience on this circuit and a level of consistency that has not quite been enough for the top spot in the past though could make for a better fit here today.

#7 BROKEN HEARTS BAY has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the cycle. She turned in a competitive effort off the bench in February at DeD and wheels right back for a higher level allowance at FG on 3/3 – that race was won by a front runners that cleared early and there was minimal change in running order with BROKEN HEARTS BAY chasing WIDE and showed some interest despite the runline and outcome. The shorter 5f distance could be a hurdle and something she will require those other factors to overcome.

#3 HAPPY WORLD turned in an eye-catching debut effort and will look to change things up to return to the winners circle on this circuit. Number wise she has held her form since though has been in against tougher allowance sophomores with a higher purse and/or par. That includes the 2/21 event at Turfway a race that has produced two next out winners, one of those Rietta (M. Boyce) winning here last Sunday and the race won by a filly called Trial that has the “foundation” at two turns last seen in the Bourbonette Oaks though one that is a stronger one-turn type. She has a look in here with upside at a price though will be tested making the surface switch and taking on older for the first time.

#4 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW could present as the speed of the speed looking to get back on track on this circuit for live connections. She also exits the TP meet and while she was in the claiming class on 2/7 that race was against older and coming off the layoff did not appear race ready on the day. It is encouraging she has been given some time, works and the connections returning here to race protected.

#8 ANGEL EXPRESS will require a top effort and improvement as she returns as a 4yo. She will make her first start of the year off the 191-day break and going back to last season improved with racing; arguably her best effort off the year was the allowance show finish at HS Indy taking on winners for the first time and in a competitive group on the day. 

A nice allowance field kicks off the Easter weekend of racing. Went to the talented 4-MALLOY on top for Catalano as she comes in from Kentucky for this start. She has tactical speed and comes off a solid sprint effort at Turfway last out. It looks like there's pace to chase which should set it up nicely for her run. 2-KAELY'S SISTER is one with speed as she returns off a lengthy layoff. She spent the winter training in New Orleans before heading to Oaklawn and then Hawthorne. She may need a race but this is a barn that always has them ready off the bench. 7-INDICIA is another that should be fit as she returns from Gulfstream today. She will also benefit from the pace ahead of her as this barn grabbed a winner last week with a runner who closed well late. Let's see if this is enough distance to close into.

Any horse can win this race and any can run last. Hoping pace makes the race as I gave the nod to 3-HALLIE'S RAINBOW. She has three works toward the return and doesn't appear to face any pace pressure early. Look for her to shake loose and never look back. 5-SWEET NELLIE is a tough one to figure out as she had faced much tougher last summer with mixed results and  now drops to a level where she can win. The tough thing to figure is if she's in a spot to win or a spot to get claimed? Or both. 2-RIBALDRY (IRE) comes in from Kentucky as well for a barn that has run some here in the past.  She seems to want to run longer but did finish third in her only start at this distance.

Went back to this race three different times as it was another very difficult race on the card. Ended up with 3-STRANGE ARRANGE based on the combination of connections and running style. Trainer Jim Watkins had an excellent meet here last year and comes in with another string of horses. He spots them well and this one has the style to possibly apply pressure from just off the flank of the likely speed. That speed looks to come from 2-FASTNFURIOUS, as he looks to get back on track after tailing off to close out 2023. He has worked well toward his return and was just in too tough in the final start of 2023 as he looks to get one last start in. Expect him to try to steal this one on the front end. 8-LUCKY SHOT is one of a pair in here from the Poulos barn as their runners got off to a good start last weekend. She has three works leading toward her return and all of her career success has come over this surface.

There are some very talented sprinters in this spot as the pace upfront looks to swift and likely contested. I'm not sure if he's to the level of these, but 1-COMISKEY PARK has seeming figured things out after a long string of runner-up efforts over this track. He won a fair of races at Fairmount last summer before heading to Keenland for an upset score. He made one start in New Orleans over the winter but a wide trip behind a very fast pace left him with too much to do. He draws inside today and should be able to save ground behind the contested pace the entire way. 2-GOLDEN HORNET has speed to burn and is talented as well. He ran a big race at this level last April before 11 months away from the races. Surely he needed his last at Oaklawn as he figures to run much better today. 4 -TILTED TOWERS ran a big race here last spring as he has speed but I expect others in here are faster early. That may be beneficial though as much like Comiskey Park, a stalking trip could be a winning trip.

Conditioned claimers we look to possibly get our first two time winner of the meet. 3-ROBUST ran a big race last week as he was pushed every step of the way and emerged clear late. There are a couple of others with speed in here but he doesn't need the lead to win. Expect this barn to have a huge meet. 4-MODAZZLE likely needed his last as he drops to a spot where he can win. If he can get a contested pace ahead of him it will benefit his chances to run by late. Let's see what kind of pressure is ahead of him today. 8-WEST ISLAND makes his first start over the track as he was able to get a work over the track after his Turfway start in January. He's another with speed but may not be as quick early as Robust.

It has been good to see some two turn races early in the meet as we have seen some larger payouts as well. There isn't much pace in this race which should benefit the chances of 5-RIGHT ON RICHIE. He posted a pair of wins last August and September in front running style before tailing off a bit to close the season. He comes back with a couple of works and gets a positive change in the saddle. 1-UNIFIED WEEKEND spent the winter in Florida as he was claimed two starts back for $10,000. After making one start, where he posted a solid figure, he drops in for the $5,000 tag in here. A win and a claim makes it worthwhile. 8-TONALTALITARIAN comes back off a lengthy layoff with just the one work toward the return. He's likely to need a race but there's potential that he picks off some horses late.

State-bred maidens as the Boyce runners could easily run 1-2 in this spot. Both 2-BEEHIVE and 5-DEVIL gets Lasix for the first time as they shift to their three-year-old seasons. Beehive gets the nod off consistency as she has tactical speed and this race doesn't have a ton of pace. She has a couple of works toward the return as she figures to take a good amount of action. 5-DEVIL has a similar running style as she gets back to the conventional dirt surface. Her two starts at Hawthorne were solid and I expect she could benefit more that Beehive with the Lasix addition. 3-CHERYL'S APPEAL makes her debut as she gets Lasix for this spot. The works have been mixed but this barn often has them ready at first asking.

4-MALLOY could hold the edge. She was competing in Grade 1 events last year. She was an easy winner the last time she ran here, a race originally scheduled for turf. Had a nice tune up at Turfway last month. Should be able to take care of these. 2-KAELY'S SISTER makes her first start for this barn while making her first start since 2022. Her works give away little but have to figure that Rivelli will have her ready. 7-INDICIA usually runs well here. She's had four local races and finished second in three of them. 

5-SWEET NELLIE will be tough to beat. She always met far better. Can easily excuse her recent efforts at Oaklawn since she was simply facing far better rivals. Could go off at a short price but does seem worth it, especially if using in horizontal wagers. 2-RIBALDRY turns back in distance. She’s been racing in routes, and only one of her 22 previous races has been at this distance, but she did manage to finish third in that effort. She generally races near the lead but, with the turn back, her speed could be tempered a bit but she could finish with a ton of run. 3-HALLIE’S RAINBOW could be the best of the speed, at least early. She has been tiring late at six furlongs but just might be able to carry her speed all the way at five.

Going to take a flyer on 7-MALIGATOR. He could be the best closer in a race dominated by early speed types. He has some recency and a history of success on this track. Might prefer more distance but could fly by if the tiring speed comes back to him. 3-STRANGE ARRANGE is hard to gauge. Only two of his 21 races were contested on dirt and he ran poorly in both of them. But, he has been racing recently which could give him a fitness edge and he does look like he could be the best of the speed. Hard call. The pair trained by Dee Poulos, 6-PINBALLER and 8-LUCKY SHOT both own good speed and both have done well here but they could also be a part of a crowded front end speed duel which would compromise the chances of both.

2-GOLDEN HORNET gets the nod but not a strong one. He does race for Rivelli and gets Loveberry as the pilot but his dull effort at Oaklawn in last could be a cause for concern. On the other hand, he was making his first start in 11 months and the company at Oaklawn is always very tough. 1-COMISKY PARK has had a bit of a case of seconditis here but he usually runs well. Didn’t like his one-paced race at Fair Grounds last time out and not crazy about his recent drills but think he deserves the benefit of the doubt.  4-TILTED TOWERS has been training well for his first start of the year. Didn’t finish 2023 in the best of form but had been good for most of the year prior. His versatility makes him an obvious threat. But if you want to use Oaklawn as a measure, take another look at 3-SHACKLEFORD STRONG. Not only did he win a starter in last at Oaklawn but he’s been incredible at Hawthorne, winning six of his nine local race while finishing second in two more. He is meeting better here but think he has a great chance at a great price.

4-MODAZZLE might get the trip. He’s not a big closer but there appears to be more than enough speed in this race to set things up for his late run, though he has also shown speed in the past. 3-ROBUST was an impressive winner in his local debut. He didn’t win by much but he led throughout and was pressured almost every inch of the way. He’s been showing speed in every start since getting claimed by this barn but, in his past life, he appeared to be a pretty good closer. No matter which tactic they decide to use, he has a good chance of a repeat trip to the winner’s circle. You can never overlook anything Rivelli sends out and he has 8-WEST ISLAND in this spot. The horse tends to run out of gas fairly quickly but there’s always a chance that he’ll fly right to the lead and stay there, especially at this distance.

Hard to really like a horse that never raced on dirt but this race did come up incredibly easy. Vanden Berg claimed 1-UNIFIED WEEKEND two races back at Gulfstream in December. He didn’t show a thing in his first race for the barn but now he’s dropping to try local dirt. His drills have been ok. Guess we’ll see. 5-RIGHT ON RICHIE looks like the best, possibly only, speed in the race. Could grab the lead quickly and never look back. 4-PERFECT WAGER can close a bit. Not sure what kind of pace will develop in this race but would expect this runner to be moving well late.

2-BEEHIVE seems likely to graduate. She’s had four races and ran well in all of them. With little speed in the race she should be prominent from the start. Might surge to the lead quickly and never look back. 3-CHERYL’S APPEAL’s local drills haven’t been anything special but her earlier works were much better. She’s a well-bred first timer racing for a barn that has a high percentage with runners making their debut. 5-DEVIL, stablemate of top pick, shouldn’t be ignored. She finished behind her stablemate the first two times they met but missed by a neck in last year’s Debutante, beating her partner soundly. 

9-WILD ABOUT HILARY might be an interesting runner. She wired the field in her debut at Prairie Meadows then finished up the track in her next two starts. However, she was meeting far tougher. Now she’s making her first start of the year with sharp workouts and first-time Lasix. Noteworthy is the fact that Loveberry is riding. Could be poised to surprise. 4-SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW appears to be the speediest member of the field. Most of her races took place in California. She has tended to run out of gas late but the five-furlong distance works in her favor. 5-RAINY MOUNTAIN hasn’t been working especially fast but she has been working steadily. And steady also describes her races. She’s had nine races, eight here, and she finished in the money in eight of them. However she seemed to improve greatly in last, her first start with blinkers. Wouldn’t overlook.

T 9 Cadillac 6 Spicy Red Head 5 Er Norma

P 8 Always A Catch 7 Right Match 6 Whole Lotta Luck

T 1 Epic Dreamer 5 Master Grand 7 Hey Ralphie

P 7 Ladyterra 2 Jks Rollin Baby 5 Splash Of Pink

P 6 So Much More 3 Shes Got It All 7 Mystifying

P 7 The Greek Freak 1 Hp Momentum 4 Jilliby Dynamite

P 8 Rock And Twist 5 St Lads Beat It 1 Hapuna Beach

P 1 Gimme A Corona 4 Butterfly Kisses 5 Fated Fire

T 7 Handsome Sebastian 4 Locatelli 2 Pemberton

P 9 Speaker Of Peace 8 Nazare 7 Larceny

P 7 Ballykeel Painter 8 Logan Behold 9 Ugottalovebluechip

P 10 High Voltage Deo 2 Bettorholdontight 6 Odds On Kickoff

P 9 Stone Carver 8 Reactor Now 1 Livinthebeachlife

P 2 Codename Cigar Box 8 Points North 7 Jabberwocky

P 2 Wheels On Fire 10 Control Heaven 3 Order One To Go