Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 ALLOTROPE figures the horse to beat and should be the “speed of the speed” in this compact field. With that said, she does not take up a “lone” role as there are others in here to keep her honest up front including her stablemate, #7 RUN BAMBI RUN a lightly raced 4yo that will take the drop in class in terms of par and purse, a subtle class change. #5 SAPPHIRE NIGHTS also has shown early speed and that is where she has been more effective. Perhaps she returns to those ways in this field, though Navas must be more assertive today than in the FG races last month – today’s event is a lower par than those two starts including the 2/12 race against 3yo only..

#4 ALEXANDRA’S SONG has shown early speed though arguably her better races are when stalking to take over late. She has further hurdles as she has the pattern of layoff lines and will take on older today for the first time, though some relief as she makes the circuit switch. #3 MISS TENA MARIE is also showing up to take on older though could present upside. All of her races were last year as a juvenile and could project improvement off those efforts and figures. She drops to the straight claiming level for the first time, a move that is more reasonable as she was doing her best last year and not quite to the level of competition.

#1 SEQUAYA does not hold any edge in this field though one that can pick up a share. The shorter 5f is not her ideal though she is one that tends to run her race regardless of the conditions and just depends if that effort is good enough against her competition on the day. There could be some intent with R. Blanche back aboard, a rider that was up for a place finish last season. 

#1 DESERT HIGHWAY appears well intended with the quick turnaround and stretching out in distance. Most of their races to date have been contested around two turns and even off the strong place finish and figure last out they could hold form and compete here once again.

Number wise DESERT HIGHWAY requires running back to a top effort with #4 ROUNDER in the field. He is not as consistent on the win end and recent layoff lines, though has turned in figures on the regular that fit on par. He shas some upside from the 1/31 race (though preferred a quicker return) given the poor (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) start.

#5 IZEONDEC has the consistency from the FG races and fits at this level. Number wise he does not have the strong edge over the two though can return to a top effort today noting a compromised start (TROUBLES+) and chasing a Vert Slow pace early and late (minimal change in running order) unable to get into the running (near excuse) in the most recent start. 

The connections were probably expecting a claim on #3 LILY’S WOOFY last week and after making an EASY_LEAD and easy work of the field wheel right back here with the class rise. She does have that hurdle with the step up and timing, though has been a consistent type and coming back with the edge on recency could also work in her favor here through is not the layup she was last Saturday.

#5 STACK SHACK probably would prefer a bit more ground though should have some price compensation with the trainer change back to Cook returning to Hawthorne, a course she has run well over in the past. She could present the higher number to #4 JOLIE RULER one that also has a solid local record though also probably would appreciate a little more ground though and does return from the layoff. Colon aboard could be taken as a positive and similar with a front wrap removal. #1 MIDNIGHT’S GIRL might wind up the betting alternative and certainly capable. The biggest knock imp is the rail draw as one that appears to prefer stalking outside horses and has not been as effective in the three rail starts, albeit running against tougher, in the past. 

Looking at the complexion of this field, there are many that prefer to race on or near the lead and those runners stacked to the inside part of the field. That could set up a trip for #5 GO STORMIN GIRL, one that ran big races last year and was probably the most unlucky horse of the meet including a controversial DQ last June. That race in June had Emigh in the saddle and his presence is noted here. In addition, most of her races last year were contested at a higher level on this circuit and the shift back to this circuit with that change could further intent.

#7 AUNT STELLA could be upgraded as she wheels right back for this second start of the meet. Going into the race last Saturday she had a big hurdle with Lily’s Woofy in the field and did not appear much intent from the public at nearly 50-1 and for the connections coming off the layoff with the front wraps added. From the outside post she should be fit coming back making a WIDE RUSH for position and holding in a blanket for minors behind the pacesetting, open length winning Lily’s Woofy. 

It might be tougher to find which horse can’t win this race than which one can as this event is open and a case can be made for many in this field. There could be intent for at least one of the two Ralph Martinez runners in this field. #4 MEDAL OF FACT  brings in a solid local record and races at the shorter sprint distance. He has been entered though scratched out of a few higher-than-today claiming events at TP since the claim last October. They will give up recent though could be a positive with R. Arrieta back aboard, a rider that has familiarity and success with this horse in the pace. #2 BOISE has some back class with a stakes win and placement in his juvenile campaign. He did not quite develop to remain at that level, though has held his form and numbers that fit reasonably with where he has been placed as of late. 

Another tougher race with many capable types though will try to get creative with #8 MY CRAZY NEIGHBOR one that remains with trainer J. Berndt after the dispersal and a positive returning here protected for the first start since that change. This horse has run well fresh breaking his maiden first out at GP at the 5.5f distance at the time for trainer I. Wilkes, something the barn is not known for especially. He was DQ’d as the unofficial winner coming off the layoff here on 7/13. A race at the higher $25k claiming level. He might not be the “best” in the race though could be intent and based on the ML should offer value.

 On current form and figures, #7 CASH FEVER is a major player and would not be surprised to see this one favored. He has run consistent figures and in terms of class is coming out of higher level allowance races at the FG than rival #9 TWIRLING ROSES from the claiming events. With that said, CASH FEVER will be tested to hold and transfer his form to this circuit. It should be noted that he was entered and a vet scratch from a $30k N2L claiming event on 3/20 at the FG though does not appear anything significant as he turned in a 4f breeze here on 3/23.

#5 ELI’S PROMISE can run a big race from time to time though his not always consistent with that big effort. He dominated (B+) an higher OC N2X field here last June, a race at a similar purse and even slightly higher race par. He has some upside with the freshening and flow upgrade from the 12/8 OP opening day effort. Tough to see today’s event being the time and place for #1 RIVZONAROLL coming back on this circuit and at the allowance level where he has come up short in the past and would look elsewhere at the ML or anything shorter.

#5 GLOBAL EMPIRE is worth getting creative with as long as he stays in the double digit range. He has some competitive races at the level last year has been able to fit fresh off the layoff and some of his better, more competitive efforts have been paired with E. Giles including a pair of 2023 wins.

#7 ROGUE ELEMENT is another to make a value case for. He has some back class and figures and one that comes into this race with form from the TP meet and the connections racing here for a tag though still a positive change claimed for $8k in January and does not take any suspicious drop with a live rider in Hernandez aboard.

#4 KNIGHT’S CROSS is not the most exciting at the ML though makes sense and for the connections is a clever spot to run this one where he can compete and remain protected at the sale time.  He has some form and recency on his side that fit and main track form as well something that could be an edge over some others that could be using today’s race as conditioning.

#2 SUPER WISE could come down from his ML for connections that often send out live runners and this one brings in current form that fits here and off a strong place finish earlier this month. They are able to race here protected, nothing to lose if they end up making the shift back to turf. #11 DAVIDIC LINE could be the controlling speed, though from the outside he has that hurdle and that being the prime knock at an expected shorter number. The odds are also factored for #9 C F V WICKED RED as he makes his very belated return from the 424-day layoff, though certainly capable of turning in a competitive race if ready to show up with a top effort. 

#5 SUPER CHRISTIE could be a live longshot in here and one to play at the longer odds. While she has plenty of question marks and many factors to knock. She has shown run in spots, often first-off and numbers that fit on par. She is a five-year-old mare that has had the setbacks and appears the type that must come running off the bench and this is that time.

#3 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE could step up on this circuit remaining at the MSW level, a slight change from those FG events and higher purse. She has some upside off the first two starts with the tough group and messy break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) on debut and chasing and bet down from her second start could be given a flow upgrade with the winner from off the pace and place finisher with a tracking trip.

#11 ALDORA also will be tested to take on older though has improved race to race. She will make her second start of the season and exiting a very live race on 1/3, a race that produced four next out winners, fillies that improved their figures in the process.

First time starter #6 DI’S SURPRISE will make her debut and for capable connections. She was stabled over the winter at the FG working steadily and with J. Loveberry aboard. Going back to December she worked with stablemate Foxxy Cleopatra, second best working to stay heads up with that filly one that won her debut last June at PID and came back to improve and win again against AOC company last Month at the FG. Morey will also capable with debuting runners will show up with first time starter #10 BEAUTY OF THE NILE, a 4yo making her belated debut and should have no excuses on fitness with the steady worktab coming in from Tampa. 

Conditioned claimers open the day in a race where there is a bit of early pace. Gave the nod to 2-ALLOTROPE as I feel she has enough tactical speed to win if she makes the top but can also stalk if another outbreaks her. She comes off a good effort at Delta in her last and battled every step while running a 16th further in that spot. Look for her to rate close early and contend the entire way. 4-ALEXANDRA'S SONG comes in from Florida as she races with Lasix for the second start. This post draw looks to be beneficial as she didn't see to take well to the inside when pressed last out. She has speed and may beat Allotrope to the top. 1-SEQUAYA is that odd horse that always seems to have the ability to run late for a piece but never wins. She has just the one career victory from 43 lifetime starts but backs that up with 13 runner-up efforts. I expect she settles back early here and runs on late in the lane.

Route runners in a race lacking much along the lines of pace. 5-IZEONDEC looks to be the one who could coast to the lead and set soft fractions. The concern here is he has just the one win from 24 lifetime starts but that came at this distance and was a 23 length win in December of 2022. 1-DESERT HIGHWAY has run well in his last couple and closed at a distance that wasn't his best last out. I expect he rates a bit closer early as well and is worth a look if near the 6-1 morning line. 4-ROUNDER comes in from Kentucky for this start as he gets back on the conventional dirt surface. He has tactical speed but much like Izeondec he rarely wins. The 12 2nd and 3rd place efforts over his career put him in the mix but we will see if he can get over the hump.

Despite the quick return, the spotting for 3-LILY'S WOOFY looks to be perfect as she comes off a solid score here last week. In that spot she was never really asked as she coasted under the wire for her victory. She may be pushed a bit more but I expect she's ready as the connections again run for the higher claim price, making her eligible for the Illinois bonus. 1-MIDNIGHT'S GIRL has speed as she will likely try to steal a race from the rail. I think she can beat Lily's Woofy to the top and the 5 furlong distance benefits her. Let's see if she is ready off the single work coming into here. 5-STACK SHACK has had success over this track and at numerous distances. She was a game third in her last out in New Orleans and comes into here with three workouts off that start. I expect she stalks the pace here early and contends late.

The return to dirt is the difference here for 1-HELEN MAE'S SONG as her last two on the polytrack were disappointing. She is better on conventional dirt as has the ability to rate and run on in the lane. With Cookin Roses likely to carve out the early fractions, I expect the stalking trip is a winning trip. 3-LOONA LUV is another that will come from a bit off the pace as she was running well in Indiana to close out the year last year. Her last in Kentucky was decent as she may be a step behind Helen Mae's Song and chasing her through the lane. 2-TAP N TWINE will be closing from further back but merits a look at a price. Blanche has been riding well to open the meet and I expect if he can save ground with her here that she could pick off numerous horses late.

Good, competitive race here with numerous in with a shot. Like the price potential with 5-KINGSWOOD as he draws better off a tough trip where he was very wide in his last. His starts two and three back were solid as this morning is off to a good start as well. 4-MEDAL OF FACT was claimed last October and has been working consistently toward his return. He gets his best surface here today and should rate just off the early pace. 6-TIME HEIST won here last April and was claimed but that claim was voided. He came back to win a couple of starts following that claim and has three drills since the New Year. He should contend the entire way.

Only a couple in here with early speed and those are the morning line and second choice in the race. They very easily could run 1-2 around the track the entire way but I worry that they hook up and burn one another out. If that occurs, it could set things up for 9-C F V WICKED RED to rate back early and rally in the lane. He ran a pair of solid races here late in 2022 before making a start early in 2023. He has time away from the track but has worked consistently toward the return for a barn that tends to have them ready off the bench. 4-KNIGHT'S CROSS is the inside of the speed as he is the second Van Berg runner entered on the card. He was masterful at 1 1/4 miles at Mountaineer in the fall and just missed at this distance in New Orleans two back. Loveberry rode that day and is back in the saddle once again. 11-DAVIDIC LINE is another with speed who has been in solid form over his last five starts. He may have to work a bit from the outside for early position but without much speed to his inside, there's potential he crosses over quickly and finds position into the first turn.

An insanely tough maiden races closes the Easter Sunday card as this is a very evenly matched bunch. Looking for a price with 3-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE as she makes her third career start off an improved effort last out. She looks to have enough early speed to get into contention from the gate but also appears to not need the lead. She has a pair of solid drills since her last start and draws favorably in here. 6-DI'S SURPRISE debuts for Rivelli as she has a nice pattern of drills coming into here. She posted a bullet work on March 7 and gets Lasix. Expect to see blinkers on her as speed from the gate is very likely. 7-BERNAR MOSA comes in from Kentucky for Mike Maker as she shortens back up to a sprint today. He race two back was better than looks on paper and finding a slightly easier spot should help her chances.

It’s unlikely that 2-ALLOTROPE will be the only speed in the race but, on paper, she does look like the best. He finished second in his only two races against claimers. Has a legitimate chance to lead all the way in this spot. 4-ALEXANDRA’S SONG has been plagued by frequent layoffs in her brief career, including a two-month vacation after getting claimed by this barn. She didn’t beat a rival in her first start for them. However, she has been training well locally since that last start and she’ll be taking on a much easier group in her local debut. 3-MISS TENA MARIE was totally outclassed when shipped to Churchill for last and ran like it, but she did have start trouble which probably contributed to her poor performance. She had been running well, against the boys, in her first four career starts. Now she drops to a far more reasonable level and will be racing with Lasix for the first time. Would expect considerable improvement.

1-DESERT HIGHWAY came flying late in last, his first start at Hawthorne, in a race that was obviously too short for him. He has been a router for the majority of his career. Should benefit from the trip over the track and the stretch in distance. 4-ROUNDER was trounced in his most recent start but that race did come after a lengthy layoff and the race took place at Turfway where he had a similarly poor effort in his previous start at that track, back in 2022. He’s had three modest drills since that race, again all on synthetic surfaces. His dirt form has been much better. However, he is only one for 26. Certainly not a lock.2-IZEONDEC comes off a dull effort but he had been in pretty good form prior to that race. He did finish second the last time he ran here on dirt. 

The swift 3-LILY’S WOOFY simply dominated in her first start of the meet. She grabbed the lead quickly and was never seriously challenged for the lead, ultimately drawing off by eight. She meets a better group of runners here but she again appears to be the best of the speed. Could repeat on the lead. 1-MIDNIGHT’S GIRL raced well at Delta for much of the winter. Although she owns good speed and did draw the rail, she doesn’t seem quite as quick as top choice. However, she does have the ability to finish well. Might run them down. 5-STACK SHACK is back with the Cook barn after wintering with Rivelli in Louisiana. This mare raced over her head for most of last year and her record reflects that. She’s been far more successful on turf but has shown that she can be competitive on dirt at this level.

5-GO STORMIN GIRL is back at her best racetrack and back with the trainer who had been successful here with her in the past. Six of her eight wins were scored here along with another 11 in-the-money finishes. This race is shorter that she would prefer but she has had some success. Should be a square price. Figures to come on late. 1-HELEN MAE’S SONG and 4-COOKIN ROSES both love the front end. If one of them doesn’t break alertly the other could be long gone but if they get caught up in a front-end speed duel, it could set the table for top pick’s late run.

6-TIME HEIST could get the trip. There should be more than enough pace to set things up for his good closing move. He’s been good when meeting claimers for a long time. Has different connections but can still keep his string of strong local races. Could edge by late.  4-MEDAL OF FACT races for the first time since October and for the first time for this barn after getting claimed from last. His recent works have been rather slow but he does have a history of running well here. Seems as good as any. 7-RISKY BOY was victorious in his first start of the meet. This field didn’t really come up any tougher. Could repeat.

Wide open race. 5-ELI’S PROMISE could be the sleeper. This speedy runner has been working well for his first start of 2024. It’s unlikely that he’ll be left alone on the lead but he has been in against some tough rivals in the past and he made they work for it. Sharp trainer sends them ready. 9-TWIRLING ROSES was almost unbeatable here a couple years ago. Didn’t have the same kind of local success in 2023 but usually raced competitively. He would be much better at six furlongs but he will be coming on late and could get into the picture. 1-RIVZONAROLL, with speed and the rail, certainly figures, despite racing for $5000 in December. With Rivelli as his conditioner and Loveberry in the irons, he’s going to be competitive every step of the way at this short sprint distance.

4-KNIGHTS CROSS ran well enough on the synthetic track in last but he obviously prefers a real dirt track. He possesses a good turn of early foot but doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. Makes his local debut. It could be a winning one. 11-DAVIDOC LINE might be the best of the speed but might have to work too hard to get to the lead from this far outside post. But, the runners from this barn have been live so far in this young meet. Wouldn’t really surprise if this one crossed the finish line first. 2-SUPER WISE flies late. Not entirely sure the pace will be favorable for a runner that comes from so far back so he might have to do it all on his own.

6-DI’S SURPRISE, purchased for $160,000, figures to be a major player. She’s had a long series of workouts in preparation for this race. Her barn wins with around 22% of their first timers. This one could be a square price in what appears to be a wide-open field. 2-CALL ME PENNY might be the quickest from the gate. She’s had 15 races and faded late in all of them, often at this distance, but might hang on longer in her local debut. 3-ABSOLUTE MIRACLE showed considerable improvement in her second career start. She had two good workouts since that race and should be dead fit for her initial Hawthorne contest.