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Sat March 30th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
Looking at this race (and start of the Place Pick 8) #6 BALI
DREAMING becomes a use as one that has some recency, early speed, and
consistency. She might not be the “best” in the race but has those other
factors on her side along with Emigh the two finishing 1st and 2nd
together here last season.
#2 KAELY’S SISTER is likely that “best” horse and going out
for a live barn and the first start this meet for Loveberry should have some
intent, though has the long 552-day layoff into this race. Stablemate #1 VIOLA broke
maiden on debut late last season and has remained consistent in terms of
figures, though has not shown much improvement. Her consistency could be enough
here though could be telling where Loveberry lands.
#4 MALLOY as the morning line favorite also is strong in
this group as an individual, though has the pattern of excessive layoff lines. Most
over her races to date were contested at the longer distances whether it be route
or sprint, something that also carries to #7 INIDICIA. MALLOY fits here and
coming back from the 2/14 event last out as part of the BLANKET (B OptixGRADE)
finish at the wire under a similar par.
The pattern of layoff lines is the prime concern for #5 SHEZ
STUCK UP another that has a level of consistency when right and likely the
horse that gets “lost” on the board – #3 KEEPMEINTHE MOMENT has similar layoff
lines as a concern and could be shorter of the two and from her ML given the connections
and coming into this race “second off” with a strong local record.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:20 PM CST
#2 RIBALDRY cuts back in distance though holds some competitive
sprint races even on the dirt keying off a show finish sprinting 5f back going
back to her second career start at Tampa. The live connections ship in where
she will find some class relief with a lower par coming in from Turfway that
could just move her up naturally.
#5 SWEET NELLIE should also move up naturally with the
return to Hawthorne and off some subtle trips at Oaklawn and less than ideal TACTIC-
(uncomfortable behind horses) last month from Gallardo as he looks to improve
on that here. They should show early speed something that could make it tougher
on #4 LUNARCHY.
#3 HALLIE’S RAINBOW also has early speed and could be the
speed of the speed and skip clear if the other two try and rate. She can be
tough on the front end, could be back to top form for Mosier and comes in with
some steady works back to a level where she can compete. She closed out her
year on 11/18 closing day of the FD meet and common race with #6 ZENCHUA SKY
one that came flying late with a huge CLOSE after a poor start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S)
and that strong late kick could have her rally for a share here. #7 NIFF was an
also ran in that race and while she has some form here from prior seasons, she
lost her form after leaving the Vanden Berg barn on 3/23 and that is the
challenge coming back this year and looking to reset for Zawitz.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:50 PM CST
Trainer Dee Poulos has started out the meet live picking up
a win with Baladine on Sunday and a huge late closing run with Dynablue, one
that finished 4th, just off the board, though a massive competitive
run – the barn has two in this race and keying off the pair to take a stand in
this tricky leg. #8 LUCKY SHOT is one they thought highly of early on trying a pair
of stakes races in KY as a juvenile and protected most of his career. He found
this level and the sprint distance last year on the main with consistency and should
find similar here. Many of his competitive races were with Mojica in the saddle
and he jumps to stablemate #6 PINBALLER here, though the barn uses all
different riders. PINBALLER returns from the layoff and the last time he came
off the layoff he won back in 12/22 though did have a slight set up. He has
competitive sprint form and with some wins last summer though also with some
favorable trips.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:20 PM CST
#2 GOLDEN HORNET has the license to rebound as he makes his
second start back off the layoff. Going back to 3/3 at Oaklawn Park he might
have lost his race in the GATE, very fractious and did not get away all that
well before a RUSH to the lead and PRESSED on a Fast early pace. The race was a
strong race as they went Fast early and Very Fast late, the winner a good runner
called Happy is a Choice making a midpack stalking run for the win. They have
run well here and with Loveberry aboard, though the connections are willing to
take as risk to run for the claiming tag today, perhaps a calculated move that
would open up some starter allowance options should their not be any $40k
takers.
From a pace standpoint, GOLDEN HORNET has legit early speed,
though there are others in this field that can keep him honest and might include
#7 FEVER NATION from the outside and #4 TILTED TOWERS, the other in the field
racing for the $40k tag. The post position for #1 COMISKEY PARK given the rail
draw might also have them without too many options from the rail given the 5f
distance and complexion of the field.
COMISKEY PARK is one of two for A. Hernandez/Donato in this
race and one that is capable here and at this level though needs the right trip
from the inside, a change coming back on this circuit. A stalking trip could fall
to stablemate #5 CORTESE one that has some early speed to put himself in the race
though from the outside can allow J. Felix options and look for the right type
of scenario, something along the lines of the 8/30 trip and win.
#6 LOOKIN FOR BALA got the better of CORTEST on 7/20 though
a different portion of their cycle as they had a few starts and could be
necessary coming back today to get that race under their belt though a sapid consistent
racehorse that has only off the board in that lone return start last May. #3
SHACKLEFORD STRONG is also a tough race horses and coming back to Hawthorne
from Oaklawn where they have kept their form and recent win. They are in top
form and makes sense the connections take the class rise, though is still a
test to hold their form, though certainly can be enticed to keep on the radar
at the suggested double digit odds.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:50 PM CST
This race starts with #3 ROBUST coming back from a win and
strong figure last week. On repeat he can be tough. The question is can he
compete as he has does seem to prefer more time between starts and has had to
work hard in those two most recent races. In terms of trip, he does not need
the lead and moving off the inside could allow for options though on the lead
could find company or give up his edge on the front end something that rival #8
WEST ISLAND could capitalize on.
Playing the scenario the two cancel each other out that
opens up the race for some chaos. That being the main opinion tough to make any
knocks on the others in the field especially those at prices though will
upgrade #6 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN. He will wheel back to make his second start of the
meet and a subtle change in class. They raced in the $12.5k level though were
actually in the race for the higher $18.8k tag using the statebred rule to run
for .5x plus the claiming tag when in against open. They will utilize the same play
here racing for the higher $7.5k tag to suggest some intent as they drop, but
not quite drop in for $5k.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:20 PM CST
#5 RIGHT ON RICHIE could be the speed of the speed (Q1) in
this race. He is placed where he can compete and as an IL -bred will race for
the higher $7.5k tag in this event. Trainer G. Butler is looking for their
first win this meet (at the time of this analysis) though have been knocking on
the door sending out live and picking up checks with two place finishes on
opening day and the 5th place finishing Dragonfly Kisses on Sunday,
though appeared intent for that one as they did open with a ton of early money
as the betting favorite before drifting to 6-1; all three piloted by A. Bendezu.
#4 PERFECT WAGER has some recency as he makes his return to Hawthorne
and hold form over this course and two turn distance. He will find a subtle
change in class from the more recent MVR races against open company where he
has held his form and from a figure stand point. Keying off those route races,
he has enough tactical speed to put himself in the race though not enough to
run or try to run with RIGHT ON RICHIE whereas some others might including #1
UNIFIED WEEKEND assigned the ML favorite role.
A contentious pace could assist horses from off the pace and
tougher to support #8 TONALTALITARIAN coming off the long, long 518-day layoff whereas
#7 NOBLE PURSUIT holds the edge on recency and while his current stronger form
has been on the turf/synth (similar for #2 SON OF GRACE) he is capable on the dirt
at the right level and kept at the preferred route distance.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:50 PM CST
The two Boyce runners could hold an edge in this field and
the edge over the experiences runners and older runners (that could open a door
if any) they will take on for the first time. The two showed up in a common
race last November at FD, the Debutante stakes where #2 BEEHIVE was favored and
the other, other Boyce runner Rumbrandt picked up the win at 5-1 and one we will
see later on in the finale. The race shape BUNCHED early assisted Rumbrandt
with a tracking trip with both #2 BEEHIVE and #5 DEVIL on the pace contested
between horses. The three Boyce runners finished together at the wire DEVIL
showed some GRIT late making her stablemate work for the win.
#3 CHERYL’S APPEAL is the lone FTS and can be dangerous for capable,
live connections though also likely to get attention for those connections. She
does hold a pair of local works, though not as quick as the barn can often work
horses, so we shall see.
In terms of the older runners, #7 TU ROYAL could have the
edge of the group and with experience on this circuit and a level of
consistency that has not quite been enough for the top spot in the past though
could make for a better fit here today.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 6:20 PM CST
#7 BROKEN HEARTS BAY has recorded some of the higher figures
in this field and should be sitting on a peak effort in this third start of the
cycle. She turned in a competitive effort off the bench in February at DeD and
wheels right back for a higher level allowance at FG on 3/3 – that race was won
by a front runners that cleared early and there was minimal change in running
order with BROKEN HEARTS BAY chasing WIDE and showed some interest despite the
runline and outcome. The shorter 5f distance could be a hurdle and something
she will require those other factors to overcome.
#3 HAPPY WORLD turned in an eye-catching debut effort and
will look to change things up to return to the winners circle on this circuit.
Number wise she has held her form since though has been in against tougher allowance
sophomores with a higher purse and/or par. That includes the 2/21 event at Turfway
a race that has produced two next out winners, one of those Rietta (M. Boyce)
winning here last Sunday and the race won by a filly called Trial that has the “foundation”
at two turns last seen in the Bourbonette Oaks though one that is a stronger
one-turn type. She has a look in here with upside at a price though will be
tested making the surface switch and taking on older for the first time.
#4 SHE’S INTHEARMYNOW could present as the speed of the
speed looking to get back on track on this circuit for live connections. She
also exits the TP meet and while she was in the claiming class on 2/7 that race
was against older and coming off the layoff did not appear race ready on the
day. It is encouraging she has been given some time, works and the connections
returning here to race protected.
#8 ANGEL EXPRESS will require a top effort and improvement
as she returns as a 4yo. She will make her first start of the year off the
191-day break and going back to last season improved with racing; arguably her
best effort off the year was the allowance show finish at HS Indy taking on
winners for the first time and in a competitive group on the day.