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Fri April 5th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Oaklawn Race 1
Post Time 12:35 PM CST
#5 J J’s JOY is upgraded in this spot with the change in
class, a lower par than the first two starts this season. From a pace
standpoint, she could be a further threat with her early speed. She is given a
flow up ground from the first two starts, especially the debut and returning to
the right MCL level for her abilities and Hernandez in the saddle.
#4 READY FOR WINE can also be given a flow upgrade though
from the opposite end as the slow start in her debut two weeks ago had her
compromised in running though to her credit showed run making a WIDE MOVE and
today’s race par being softer and the conditioning could step forward in this
second career start.
#6 KANTIRUN finds a lateral change in class though fits on
current form. She has been consistent all season long and that projects to hold
here. She has some early speed and finishing ability that suits today’s race
shape. She is coming out of solid early paced races and should have that edge
over others in this field. #1 PETIT JEAN as she wheels right back for this
event she was upgraded off her debut and as projected took a step forward two
weeks ago showing early speed and seems to be doing fine enough that they come
right back for this event.
Oaklawn Race 2
Post Time 1:10 PM CST
#1 MANFREDI is likely to get a lot of attention here with
the significant class drop and for the connections. The change should move them
up naturally though one that still must show up with a top effort and while the
class change is the right move, the shorter distance has not been as projected
for them and finds the cutback here. The distance change is also in play for #5
SITKA taking the class drop and has not shown much progression though to be fair
their debut could give them a subtle flow upgrade.
#2 TWIRLING TROILLET is upgraded in this spot with the key
change in class. He has shown run this season though overmatched in MSW company
back on opening week, a competitive race under similar MCL conditions and just
a bit overmatched two weeks ago.
#4 INTERRUPTER could present upside as he makes his
sophomore debut and picking up Lasix and a barn change on return. He has a
steady series of works and a live rider where if he is to run to the public expectation
of the first two starts as the favorite, perhaps this is the time.
Oaklawn Race 3
Post Time 1:44 PM CST
#3 RISK IT has struggled to validate his debut effort last
summer at SAR a front end effort aided by the track profile. The added ground could
have been an excuse and those races in stakes company with some subtle trips.
This should be the time if ever to get back on track as he remains sprinting
has the local experience and steady works as he returns under allowance
conditions.
His stablemate #4 CRAFTED also must step up as he lands on this
circuit and second start against winners and unlike RISK IT will race for the
$100k tag. Their early speed on debut was a long trip and unlikely to find that
scenario here with #5 EXCITABLE BOY and #6 THIS IS USCAR to his outside. EXCITABLE
BOY is preferred of the recent maiden winners given his foundation, timing and
the 2/24 race had some quality to it.
#1 HENRO will wheel back from the 3/1 common race with RISK
IT and looking to improve in his second start against winner. Like RISK IT that
day HENRO was caught WIDE and that could have played against the pair. As they
return today a rider change will be made as Hernandez takes over, they will
also race for the tag.
#2 MARKET STREET must continue to improve in order to
compete here though perhaps this is the time for him as he returns off the two
month freshening with the distance and class changes. His numbers improved slightly
at the first part of the meet and perhaps required the change in class, distance
and even some time off to recover. Lukas sent out some live runners last weekend
and the 3/25 “bullet” could be a further positive.
Oaklawn Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
#4 ROYAL MEGHAN is likely to be favored and the horse to
beat off her current form and bringing in some of the consistently higher
figures in this field. She has been protected since the claim and her win back
on opening week and held her form though short on the win end and with this
meet now in the final weeks the drop makes sense looking for that win.
Esquivel will take over today on #1 MIA BABY and couple be a
positive sign as the two paired up for a place finish last summer. MIA BABY has
held her form this season, turned in a game effort back on 1/26 and moves back
inside, a subtle change in post for
today’s race. A rider change is also in play for #5 IZEONPOINT with Quinonez
taking back over. The two paired up for the win back in December and could be
intent returning here. They will move off the rail for today’s race and perhaps
a positive for her as she was SLOG in her two most recent starts though to her
credit put in a strong CLOSE in the 5th place result last month.
Oaklawn Race 5
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
#6 HARD TO COME BY could catch the right group and trip in this
field. He is one that requires those
factors in his favor along with a top effort, though to his credit he has
improved with each start this season and the added ground – the effort last
month was competitive (B-) given the poor WEATHER conditions and WIDE trip.
The race shape could assist HARD TO COME BY with his trip
given the complexion of this field and many runners with early speed. That includes
#7 LIFE ON THE NILE coming back under similar conditions and a game effort as
he stayed on as the BOST through a solid early and late pace (Fast/Very Fast) and
WIDE throughout.
The winning trip is tough to figure out for #8 VINCENZINO
though he is interesting in here as he makes the class change and the two most
recent starts where he was racing above condition at the N3 level and perhaps
they were looking for a softer group in for the lower tag though both of those
events held a higher par than today.
The entrymate shipping in from the FG season could have
intent here, fit on their best day and worth following where Esquivel lands as
he is named on both. #1 SERGEANT RECKLESS has upside from his races prior to
the layoff and adding the blinkers for this race. #1A LIL BRO COOP comes into
this race with current form and for that fits at this level with a top effort
along with local experience keying off his races here at this higher MCL level
and maiden win over this course and two turn distance last March.
Oaklawn Race 6
Post Time 3:22 PM CST
#1 POLTERER has been on a run this season and again the
connections have found a spot where he fits. With that said, he does not stand
out as strongly in this field and could find things change slightly with the
rail draw and with pressure to his outside, a difference in trip from the two
recent starts and wins. #6 EFFICIENCY could present value with solid local and
current form. On class he comes back under similar conditions from a traffic
trip last month and all season has run competitively holding his form and
figures.
#5 NEPAL UP has upside in the second start of the season and
back under similar conditions. He turned in a competitive race behind his
stablemate winner on 2/17 and his prior efforts here and under starter
allowance conditions fit. They did run him in the Trail’s End stakes last year
and this could be a set up for that marathon.
Intention for the Trails’ End could carry to the two
uncoupled Shirer runners in #2 RACKATAPTAP and #3 ZAP MOTION should keep the
pace honest and capable in their own right. RACKATAPTAP showed a ton of run in
the two starts before the win last month and in form should hold here today and
first off the claim to run protected. ZAP MOTION was on the right part of the
track last month and will be tested off that effort though at the longer odds
tough to knock too much.
#4 HUGE BIGLY has held his form this season and competitive
on numbers. However, he benefit from the trip and race flow in his two starts
coming into this race and will return on much Shorter rest for this spot,
something to consider on value and should also be considered for #7 W W CRAZY
coming off their recent win.
Oaklawn Race 7
Post Time 3:54 PM CST
This is a competitive event and full field that should create
an honest early pace. #2 CANADIAN PHAROAH returns with Juarez the rider back on
3/8 under similar conditions and would look for a similar trip; his effort on
the day was in line with #4 LEADER OF MEN and could land the higher of the two on
the board in this race. That pair could look for first run on #1 HEIR TO GREATNESS
one that has benefit from a contentious early pace in the past including his win
last month. The rider change is less of a concern with first call Torres riding
elsewhere today and with a very live mount in a stakes event.
#5 SEASIDE BOY could land a similar trip and on with back
numbers and figures that fit at this level. He must improve though this could
be the time and place as he makes his third start of the season. The allowance off
the bench in January appeared a prep and kept protected in February was at a
higher level and longer distance, though compromised on rider TACTIC- unable to
get into the race kept wide and off the pace (a common race with Nepal Up in
Race 6) and there was intent to run at this level and claiming tag a trainer
scratch last month.
#9 MAN ON THE MOON should be in the right spot to compete
and upside returning from the TROUBLE trip and less than ideal handling
receiving a rider change for this event. He is very logical as an individual
though in this race shape requires the right trip especially at this distance
one that is a touch further than his ideal.
Oaklawn Race 8
Post Time 4:26 PM CST
#8 SHE CALLED turned in a strong effort on debut staying on
as the BOS on a rare Oaklawn day that favored runners from off the pace. She
has a big look off that effort with the prime concern coming back on shorter
rest though to her recent she appears to have come out of the race well breezing
a half mile a week ago.
#2 QUEEN’S LEGACY has the benefit of experience and will
show up on this circuit from a productive debut event back in December at TP.
She has worked steadily as of late and over this course picking up a live rider
for this second start and for a live Van Berg barn this season.
#7 ALMOSTGONE ROCKET will give up recency as she makes a
late season debut. That has not been the plan as she was entered to debut last
September at CD unable to draw in off the AE and a stewards scratch from that 3/17
SHE CALLED MSW event. #10 ANDREA DIANE will also make her debut here and has a
steady string of works coming into this race.
Oaklawn Race 9
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
#7 ECHO AGAIN could find himself in the right time and place
as he makes his second start this season and off the long layoff. He moves off the
rail and something this one has had in just limited starts and moving outside
of horses should assist especially remaining at this sprint distance.
#6 LARK’S MISCHIEF caught a competitive group in his return
last month. He should benefit from that start and coming back on less than
30-days in spot where they can remain protected and still race at a higher
level and purse. His early speed should be on display and could be effective
moving off the inside and looking for that jump on #9 EASY ACTION. One that returns
under similar conditions and has held his form this season, though come up short
on the win end without excuse to look at others in here for that top spot. #8
SPEND BENJAMINS also has come up short at this level, though at the double
digit projected odds can be left in the underneath mix.
Oaklawn Race 10
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
#12 NGALA moved up on the drop and dominated the maiden field
last month. A repeat effort has her a major player though did have a PERFECT
trip and some REGRESS could be projected. To her credit, she has been given the
33-days to recoup, though at the shorter number if she fails to fire, the
finale becomes wide open.
#1 KITARA makes her third start back this season and looking
for the improved effort here. She returned in open company back on 2/16 with a
TRAFFIC trip a TRAFFIC and TROUBLE trip that followed her last month and
overall visuals can IMPROVE off the race and outcome.
#11 SMARTY’S ANGEL was compromised with the poor start last
out and put in a late run after. She has held her form this season and better
when she can show early speed, something they could be looking for here with E.
Esquivel aboard. They were aboard #8 LITTLE BURRITO last out as she made her
belated return to the races from the lengthy 707-day layoff. Her maiden win in
December 2021 was second off and with a change to an apprentice rider, those angles
in play here. LITTLE BURRITO shares a runstyle and trip to the two AE runners #13
GOLD STRATEGY and #14 COURAGEOUS CAPPEN should be left on the radar should they
draw in and could follow a pattern this season of live AE runners finding eligibility
on race day.
#6 BE MY HUCKLEBERRY returns from open company two weeks ago
and back under statebred conditions. She has had some subtle trips this season
and if there is a time for her to move up this would be it and with the rider
change as well.