Handicapper Tips & Picks

Tough to ignore the live connections sending out #5 HUNTERS GHOST one that will give up local experience, though has a local work and A. Centeno has been aboard for all three of the J. Arnett wins this season.

Bendezu aboard CRANKSHAFT two weeks ago jumps to #3 TONYS MORNING LINE for another pair of live connections. They will make a belated return here and have some solid sprint form. His local record shows 0/3, though context matters as each of those races were back in 2023 at a higher level including the Lightening Jet stakes and the figures recorded at the time (75-83) fit on par here.

As far as that 3/23 finale, a common race with CRANKSHAFT longshot #1 MAC PANDOWDY turned in a sneaky run (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines) at very long odds coming off the layoff and while improvement is required, he should be longer odds again and one to take a stab with.

The more “logical” #4 CRANKSHAFT one that was upgraded on the day as he had the tendency to fire fresh and while he has the early speed and conditioning on his side, he will be tested to hold form off that effort today and should be shorter odds and mentioned rider change and could have to deal with #9 SAND MOUNTAIN on the front end. The other R. Martinez runner #2 IRISH DECLARATION will return off the layoff and one that does hold one of his stronger figures to date at the 5.5f distance (FAN 4/23) most of his races were contested going longer and he does not show a published work this year.

Going back to the opener on opening day, #7 DYNABLUE put in a huge CLOSE and eye catching late run and earned a follow out of that event and notable rider change with Mojica back aboard. The shorter distance was the concern two weeks ago and while the extra .5f might have assisted last out in the race result, it could still be shorter than his ideal here and takes the class rise as well.

Manny Perez returns with a pair in this race and both taking a different path with a class drop. #6 MONEY AGENT will make his first start in for the MCL tag and should move up naturally with that change and upside with the conditioning for this second start of the season and rider change back to A. Lezcano. That will shift F. Reyes to #1 ICE VORTEX one that has races at the MCL level though a lower level than the events last year and one of his better race was the show finish over this HAW main track last July.

Another live barn with T. Young making it look easy here to start out two-for-two represented by #2 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY. This one finds class relief back on this circuit and their early speed should also be in play with J. Felix aboard and tougher to make the lead or see the 1/25 race in the FOG. Even though he raced at a lower MCL tag at TP than #4 SHARPENYOURFAITH the race par was much higher and collectively higher overall than SHARPENYOURFAITH racing in age restricted company for the juvenile and sophomore starts and takes on older for the first time here – similar factors for #5 BROADWAY RED.

#7 SOLOMAN VANDY also exits the TP meet and while placement for his abilities appears at the right level, he is unproven on the surface returning to the conventional dirt. #3 BUBBY BOY is proven on the dirt and two turn distance. He has had some subtle trips in fill fields in each of the three starts and WIDE trips throughout could present an overall upgrade. 

On age, #2 ELECTRIC CHARGE and #4 ICE AXE sit as the older runners in this field and could have that edge on their side.  ICE AXE returns from the layoff though going back to his races here last season at two turns and MSW company those races sit on par and all competitive and even closed out the 2023 year with a BTL effort at HS Indy. ELECTRIC CHARGE has the benefit of the race coming back for this second start and upside off the trip shown in the OptixNOTES Past 3 Runlines especially with class DROP.

#1 FIRE WIRE is upgraded as he makes his second start of the meet and key STRETCH out in distance. He has upside at the distance based on his physicality and prior “trips” from the TP route races. His local figure earned two weeks ago stands out in the race series, his first start on the dirt; a number that sits in line with #3 EUCLID AVENUE’s last out figure. They will take a slight drop on this circuit and in claiming tag, though find further changes to run against older and around two turns for the first time. The changes to stretch out and take on older also come into play for #5 MYSTIC POWER though more of a lateral change from the higher $50k MCL event back on 12/1, a race that has held form.

#2 MINNESOTA MOON had a look on opening day and perhaps will follow the pattern of next out winners with Robust and Desert Highway winning last weekend. He will return with a slight addition of ground under similar conditions and retain Bendezu. As live as that race has been so far, noted live connections with #3 GRAPHENE CASSOCK one that presents upside off the 2/16 trip when taking KICKBACK- over the off-track and his races contested at the claiming level sit as the more competitive to date.

Those two could find the right trip as the early pace should be kept honest with #1 CROWN ROYAL KID coming off a maiden win at the rail and #4 MCVICKER back after setting an honest pace two weeks ago picking up J. Felix for Vanden Berg. Those two could also be joined by #5 GETTIN PAID one that has some natural early speed, a change in circuit and surface in this second start off the layoff trying to find where he fits and given a look from the Plot, an upgrade from perhaps his “on paper” form.  

#6 GOOD APPLE moved up on everyone’s radar after the smashing (B+) maiden win two eeks ago. He was able to establish the lead on his own (EASY_LEAD) and in hand (NO_PUSH) continued to CLOSE to the wire while clear from the others. The effort should see him transfer here and given the OptixPLOT placement (Quad I/II Square) can dictate his trip, while taking on more established types. 

#1 RUTH OF JUDAH started out her career over this main track last July and GREEN on debut in MSW company has improved off that start with experience and the drop to MCL company. She will return to this circuit and appears well placed to clear the condition finding another drop from the MCL event where she had a rough break (TROUBLES+) last month at the FG. #2 HEAVENLY HASH also makes the circuit switch though first local and conventional dirt start and has some questions on that front though on her best day should she transfer her form, she would be no surprise.

#5 MAGGIE E returns from the place finish two weeks ago and while she stayed on as the BOS was unable to hold off her 93-1 stablemate Echo Dreamer one that was an overlay to say the least. MAGGIE E in losing the lead late (NO_FINISH) was also drifting (NO_LINE) out late and something to consider and play against at a shorter number – and could take pace pressure with #8 HAVALENE making her debut today for Rivelli with Mojica in the saddle. #4 ARRINGTON could be overlooked of the group exiting the 3/23 common race and with a subtle trip that could see her improve and look to turn the tables on some others from that event here – improvement from #6 BABAS GAL could also show today.  

#7 GOT NO MORE TEARS makes a belated second start after a belated debut last summer. This now 5yo mare lightly raced comes in with steady works and will find the class drop that could suggest further intent. Going back to that debut last year, she did make a positive PRERACE+ appearance and had some adversity in the trip behind the top two that finished together and clear at the wire.

#4 ARDENWOOD has the benefit of foundation this year and finds a subtle change on this circuit. His early speed could become more effective and hold in today’s race shape. Jockey I. Hernandez will take over, a rider that has so far bade the most of limited mounts this meet with a pair of wins (Allotrope, Short Straw) and show finish opening day on Lake Mills.

#5 UNIFIED DREAMS has held his form as of late though does not find much if any change in class from the two most recent starts and while on-the-board and pairing B- OptixGRADE efforts, he would have to find a little more for that win. His form does not hold any edge over #8 PROTONIC POWER preferred of the two trying to separate the pair “on paper” and would consult the board for the final decision that includes #3 REGULAR GUY as well.

#7 GO EMI gives up a lot of recency returning from the 441-day layoff; and in running can give up a lot of ground with his closer (Quad IV) runstyle. Looking at the Plot, his Large Square represents a strong late kick and the “Sun” Contention along with honest 30 SpeedRate should assist picking up horses late.

The lightly race and younger #1 SIVAKO and #6 OCEAN OF STORMS have overall upside, though some concerns in this spot whether it be class or distance, though ones to follow going forward. 

Will look to get a little creative in this race given the timing and some in this field that could be looking for the grass next month. #9 WESLAN will make his return and going back to the allowance races here last season he was consistent and competitive while a tough short on the win end. He did break his maiden first off the layoff and the race par from the allowance routes last year were slightly higher than today and that could be his edge on timing and from the Plot position in this field.

The higher 46 SpeedRate and “Sun” Contention could present a hurdle for #11 ITWASTHISBIG despite the Quad I Square position and the edge over the “Circles” to the left of the y-axis – the higher SpeedRate could also factor for #3 CAMP DADDY and #2 PATH TO SUCCESS above the ParLine. PATH TO SUCCESS could also get attention coming off the win and figure two weeks ago though could be a taxing effort as he was drifting (NO_LINE) in the lane and under a ride to hold and hold off the chalk closing FG day. His stablemate #7 DAPPER DUDE moved up for show behind that pair and could move forward in today’s race shape (Quad IV Square) under A. Gallardo. #8 SIMPLE LOGIC fits as an individual though trip should be considered given the Surface/Distance Plot as a runner that could get attention here for the connections and one those in this field that could be waiting for TURF. 

#5 RUSSIAN TO WIN scratched from a similar conditioned claiming event opening day and this spot looks preferred by the connections with the added ground, positive Plot position and keeping O. Mojica, the rider assigned before the Trainer Scratch. #6 ALPINE GHOST stayed in the race opening day and should benefit from the start (PREP) and subtle trip with the slight addition of ground.

Those two could find a stalking trip behind #2 WINGING WAYS one that will give up some recency though potential intent in this spot. He returned off a similar layoff last season under similar conditions sprinting and stumbling at the start (TROUBLE_S) had to make a RUSH and finished third. Their win last season was gate to wire under L. Colon and his presence is noted here. He will shift from #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE one that could be tougher to get to “on paper” though on the Plot could find the right trip to compete and even a scenario with an edge at longer odds than #9 BREAKING NEWS and in line with #10 FEROCITY one that catches a higher race par than the 3/24 race.  

The “Fire” Contention rating could assist #4 PERFECT WAGER, one that might also be kind of sneaky in here. While many this season prepped for longer going shorter, this one might have prepped for shorter going longer (ONE_TURN) last week and has that fitness and weight break with Y. Navas on their side wheeling back for this race. That might also be the case for #1 HURTS SO BAD wheeling back from opening week and reclaimed by A. Meraz, a trainer that had this one most of his career and including success showing early speed with O. Hernandez in the saddle.