Handicapper Tips & Picks

GAZELLE STAKES (G3):

#2 WHOCOULDASKFORMO comes into this race live and looking to pull off the upset over 35 LIFE TALK, a solid favorite and the horse to beat. WHOCOULDASKFORMO debuted at AQU before turned up at TAM where she could run in the two turn races and a BTL effort on the day in the Suncoast stakes. She kept up her conditioning in the Davona Dale (G2) and flattered with Leslie's Rose coming back with a dominant effort in the Ashland (G1) on the Friday card.  

APPALACHIAN STAKES (G2):

#11 SIMPLY IN FRONT caught the eye in her debut as a quality type and validated those visuals with the confident move and place finish in the Natalma (G1), a race won by the talented, She Feels Pretty, one that would be favored if she were running in this race. SIMPLY IN FRONT held her form closing out the year with the effort in the Mazarine (G3) compromised by the race dynamic/X_FLOW. SIMPLY IN FRONT will make her first start of the year and while she does show just the limited return works, the longer drills suggest she has been working on a farm prior to heading to the track this year. Her work on 3/29 was best in hand over 4yo stablemate, Safeen, the Pucker Up (G3) stakes winner last summer at ELP. 

Tough to ignore the live connections sending out #5 HUNTERS GHOST one that will give up local experience, though has a local work and A. Centeno has been aboard for all three of the J. Arnett wins this season.

Bendezu aboard CRANKSHAFT two weeks ago jumps to #3 TONYS MORNING LINE for another pair of live connections. They will make a belated return here and have some solid sprint form. His local record shows 0/3, though context matters as each of those races were back in 2023 at a higher level including the Lightening Jet stakes and the figures recorded at the time (75-83) fit on par here.

As far as that 3/23 finale, a common race with CRANKSHAFT longshot #1 MAC PANDOWDY turned in a sneaky run (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines) at very long odds coming off the layoff and while improvement is required, he should be longer odds again and one to take a stab with.

The more “logical” #4 CRANKSHAFT one that was upgraded on the day as he had the tendency to fire fresh and while he has the early speed and conditioning on his side, he will be tested to hold form off that effort today and should be shorter odds and mentioned rider change and could have to deal with #9 SAND MOUNTAIN on the front end. The other R. Martinez runner #2 IRISH DECLARATION will return off the layoff and one that does hold one of his stronger figures to date at the 5.5f distance (FAN 4/23) most of his races were contested going longer and he does not show a published work this year.

Going back to the opener on opening day, #7 DYNABLUE put in a huge CLOSE and eye catching late run and earned a follow out of that event and notable rider change with Mojica back aboard. The shorter distance was the concern two weeks ago and while the extra .5f might have assisted last out in the race result, it could still be shorter than his ideal here and takes the class rise as well.

Manny Perez returns with a pair in this race and both taking a different path with a class drop. #6 MONEY AGENT will make his first start in for the MCL tag and should move up naturally with that change and upside with the conditioning for this second start of the season and rider change back to A. Lezcano. That will shift F. Reyes to #1 ICE VORTEX one that has races at the MCL level though a lower level than the events last year and one of his better race was the show finish over this HAW main track last July.

Another live barn with T. Young making it look easy here to start out two-for-two represented by #2 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY. This one finds class relief back on this circuit and their early speed should also be in play with J. Felix aboard and tougher to make the lead or see the 1/25 race in the FOG. Even though he raced at a lower MCL tag at TP than #4 SHARPENYOURFAITH the race par was much higher and collectively higher overall than SHARPENYOURFAITH racing in age restricted company for the juvenile and sophomore starts and takes on older for the first time here – similar factors for #5 BROADWAY RED.

#7 SOLOMAN VANDY also exits the TP meet and while placement for his abilities appears at the right level, he is unproven on the surface returning to the conventional dirt. #3 BUBBY BOY is proven on the dirt and two turn distance. He has had some subtle trips in fill fields in each of the three starts and WIDE trips throughout could present an overall upgrade. 

On age, #2 ELECTRIC CHARGE and #4 ICE AXE sit as the older runners in this field and could have that edge on their side.  ICE AXE returns from the layoff though going back to his races here last season at two turns and MSW company those races sit on par and all competitive and even closed out the 2023 year with a BTL effort at HS Indy. ELECTRIC CHARGE has the benefit of the race coming back for this second start and upside off the trip shown in the OptixNOTES Past 3 Runlines especially with class DROP.

#1 FIRE WIRE is upgraded as he makes his second start of the meet and key STRETCH out in distance. He has upside at the distance based on his physicality and prior “trips” from the TP route races. His local figure earned two weeks ago stands out in the race series, his first start on the dirt; a number that sits in line with #3 EUCLID AVENUE’s last out figure. They will take a slight drop on this circuit and in claiming tag, though find further changes to run against older and around two turns for the first time. The changes to stretch out and take on older also come into play for #5 MYSTIC POWER though more of a lateral change from the higher $50k MCL event back on 12/1, a race that has held form.

#2 MINNESOTA MOON had a look on opening day and perhaps will follow the pattern of next out winners with Robust and Desert Highway winning last weekend. He will return with a slight addition of ground under similar conditions and retain Bendezu. As live as that race has been so far, noted live connections with #3 GRAPHENE CASSOCK one that presents upside off the 2/16 trip when taking KICKBACK- over the off-track and his races contested at the claiming level sit as the more competitive to date.

Those two could find the right trip as the early pace should be kept honest with #1 CROWN ROYAL KID coming off a maiden win at the rail and #4 MCVICKER back after setting an honest pace two weeks ago picking up J. Felix for Vanden Berg. Those two could also be joined by #5 GETTIN PAID one that has some natural early speed, a change in circuit and surface in this second start off the layoff trying to find where he fits and given a look from the Plot, an upgrade from perhaps his “on paper” form.  

#6 GOOD APPLE moved up on everyone’s radar after the smashing (B+) maiden win two eeks ago. He was able to establish the lead on his own (EASY_LEAD) and in hand (NO_PUSH) continued to CLOSE to the wire while clear from the others. The effort should see him transfer here and given the OptixPLOT placement (Quad I/II Square) can dictate his trip, while taking on more established types. 

#1 RUTH OF JUDAH started out her career over this main track last July and GREEN on debut in MSW company has improved off that start with experience and the drop to MCL company. She will return to this circuit and appears well placed to clear the condition finding another drop from the MCL event where she had a rough break (TROUBLES+) last month at the FG. #2 HEAVENLY HASH also makes the circuit switch though first local and conventional dirt start and has some questions on that front though on her best day should she transfer her form, she would be no surprise.

#5 MAGGIE E returns from the place finish two weeks ago and while she stayed on as the BOS was unable to hold off her 93-1 stablemate Echo Dreamer one that was an overlay to say the least. MAGGIE E in losing the lead late (NO_FINISH) was also drifting (NO_LINE) out late and something to consider and play against at a shorter number – and could take pace pressure with #8 HAVALENE making her debut today for Rivelli with Mojica in the saddle. #4 ARRINGTON could be overlooked of the group exiting the 3/23 common race and with a subtle trip that could see her improve and look to turn the tables on some others from that event here – improvement from #6 BABAS GAL could also show today.  

#7 GOT NO MORE TEARS makes a belated second start after a belated debut last summer. This now 5yo mare lightly raced comes in with steady works and will find the class drop that could suggest further intent. Going back to that debut last year, she did make a positive PRERACE+ appearance and had some adversity in the trip behind the top two that finished together and clear at the wire.

#4 ARDENWOOD has the benefit of foundation this year and finds a subtle change on this circuit. His early speed could become more effective and hold in today’s race shape. Jockey I. Hernandez will take over, a rider that has so far bade the most of limited mounts this meet with a pair of wins (Allotrope, Short Straw) and show finish opening day on Lake Mills.

#5 UNIFIED DREAMS has held his form as of late though does not find much if any change in class from the two most recent starts and while on-the-board and pairing B- OptixGRADE efforts, he would have to find a little more for that win. His form does not hold any edge over #8 PROTONIC POWER preferred of the two trying to separate the pair “on paper” and would consult the board for the final decision that includes #3 REGULAR GUY as well.

#7 GO EMI gives up a lot of recency returning from the 441-day layoff; and in running can give up a lot of ground with his closer (Quad IV) runstyle. Looking at the Plot, his Large Square represents a strong late kick and the “Sun” Contention along with honest 30 SpeedRate should assist picking up horses late.

The lightly race and younger #1 SIVAKO and #6 OCEAN OF STORMS have overall upside, though some concerns in this spot whether it be class or distance, though ones to follow going forward. 

Will look to get a little creative in this race given the timing and some in this field that could be looking for the grass next month. #9 WESLAN will make his return and going back to the allowance races here last season he was consistent and competitive while a tough short on the win end. He did break his maiden first off the layoff and the race par from the allowance routes last year were slightly higher than today and that could be his edge on timing and from the Plot position in this field.

The higher 46 SpeedRate and “Sun” Contention could present a hurdle for #11 ITWASTHISBIG despite the Quad I Square position and the edge over the “Circles” to the left of the y-axis – the higher SpeedRate could also factor for #3 CAMP DADDY and #2 PATH TO SUCCESS above the ParLine. PATH TO SUCCESS could also get attention coming off the win and figure two weeks ago though could be a taxing effort as he was drifting (NO_LINE) in the lane and under a ride to hold and hold off the chalk closing FG day. His stablemate #7 DAPPER DUDE moved up for show behind that pair and could move forward in today’s race shape (Quad IV Square) under A. Gallardo. #8 SIMPLE LOGIC fits as an individual though trip should be considered given the Surface/Distance Plot as a runner that could get attention here for the connections and one those in this field that could be waiting for TURF. 

#5 RUSSIAN TO WIN scratched from a similar conditioned claiming event opening day and this spot looks preferred by the connections with the added ground, positive Plot position and keeping O. Mojica, the rider assigned before the Trainer Scratch. #6 ALPINE GHOST stayed in the race opening day and should benefit from the start (PREP) and subtle trip with the slight addition of ground.

Those two could find a stalking trip behind #2 WINGING WAYS one that will give up some recency though potential intent in this spot. He returned off a similar layoff last season under similar conditions sprinting and stumbling at the start (TROUBLE_S) had to make a RUSH and finished third. Their win last season was gate to wire under L. Colon and his presence is noted here. He will shift from #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE one that could be tougher to get to “on paper” though on the Plot could find the right trip to compete and even a scenario with an edge at longer odds than #9 BREAKING NEWS and in line with #10 FEROCITY one that catches a higher race par than the 3/24 race.  

The “Fire” Contention rating could assist #4 PERFECT WAGER, one that might also be kind of sneaky in here. While many this season prepped for longer going shorter, this one might have prepped for shorter going longer (ONE_TURN) last week and has that fitness and weight break with Y. Navas on their side wheeling back for this race. That might also be the case for #1 HURTS SO BAD wheeling back from opening week and reclaimed by A. Meraz, a trainer that had this one most of his career and including success showing early speed with O. Hernandez in the saddle. 

Competitive bunch starts the day in a spot that doesn't have a ton of pace. Trainer Gerald Butler has gotten off to a fine start this meet as he has 3-TONYS MORNING LINE in here. This one was claimed for $10,000 last fall and runs for the increased claiming tag, making him eligible for the Illinois bonus. He has been working well toward the return and may sneak off at a decent price. 6-MON AMI FUZZIE steps up after being claimed for $5,000 out of a race at Turfway. He has tactical speed and has gotten three works over the track since being claimed. Let's see if he rates closer early and runs on late. 5-HUNTERS GHOST is another that could push the pace as he also steps up off the claim. He posted a solid 2023 campaign and was a winner in his first out this year.

Two turn maidens as there's no standout. Will try to beat the likely favorite in Sharpenyourfaith with 2-HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY. Trainer Terry Young won a tough MSW race on Easter as the barn looks to get off to a good start. This one looks to be improving as the added distance in his last seemed to help. Let's see if he can rate close early and run on late. 5-BROADWAY RED comes in from Kentucky as he may be a bit overlooked in here. His last two were much improved as the return of blinkers and addition of Lasix seems to have helped greatly. 7-SOLOMON VANDY was claimed from his last as he chased from the outside in that spot. His race at this distance in New Orleans three starts back was solid as he gets the benefit of a work over the track as well.

I'm curious as to how much pace there will be in this spot as some sprinters stretch out to go two turns. The one work scares me but I'm going to give 4-ICE AXE a shot as the running style suits and he has run well around two turns throughout his career. Lezcano returns to ride as he has gotten along nicely with this runner. 2-ELECTRIC CHARGE is well overdue for the maiden breaker with nine top three finishes without a victory. He is going to close from further back in here and likely needed his last start. Expect to see some improvement as he drops in class for a barn that is off to a good start on the meet. 3-EUCLID AVENUE comes in from Florida as he is working well toward the return. He's one that I'm curious to see how he handles the stretch in distance. There's potential on the drop that he tries to clear and never look back but I'm afraid he may find some company today.

One of the more impressive wins early in this meet has come from 6-GOOD APPLE. In his start on opening day he broke sharply and quickly cleared. He was never asked in the lane and cruised to an easy score while appearing to have a ton left in the tank. There is a bit of early pace in here but I think he's good enough to clear again if that's the plan. 1-CLYDE'S GREEN GO rallied late in his race opening weekend to finish a solid second. That was just his second start in 2 1/2 years and now he comes back quickly which is a good sign. The inside draw could benefit his chances as well as he was hung quite wide last out. 8-WILDWOOD RUBEN is one with speed as he picks up Santiago today. He's been away since last summer but is working consistently toward his return. I expect he gets a stalking trip today and runs on late.

The class drop may be all that is needed for 1-RUTH OF JUDAH as she comes off an improved effort in New Orleans last out. She has some ability, as shown from her turf sprint last summer against better and comes in with a very fast work into this spot. Don't be surprised if she tries to make the top and never looks back. 7-GOT NO MORE TEARS makes her second career start as she comes off a layoff into here. She has worked consistently toward the return and I expect we see some early foot from her. She's worth a look at a price. 5-MAGGIE E has tactical speed as she gets an improved post off her last start. Centeno returning in the saddle is a plus as I like that she remains at the same level today.

A really solid route field as I'm hopeful there's enough pace to chase. Looked to 8-PROTONIC POWER as he has been solid at Hawthorne for a barn that is going to have a very good meet. After a pair of stakes tries he dropped to a similar level in his last and ran a solid race. He will likely race from the second flight but figures to rally in the long Hawthorne stretch. 3-REGULAR GUY has enough speed to rate close early and contend throughout. He chased while facing better in his last and didn't give way until late. That was just the second start off a long layoff as he races back into form. 4-ARDANWOOD is the one with speed as he may look to clear in here. He put together a solid string of races last summer at Delaware and held his own in his last two starts in New Orleans. If he can shake loose from You're In Corey and Readthecliffnotes he may be able to steal this race.

The two turns is the only reason why I tried to beat 3-CAMP DADDY in here as he looks to be the clear choice on figures alone. Although he's typically turf, 8-SIMPLE LOGIC has a main track start at Hawthorne last summer that would make him a threat. The biggest concern with him is that he struggles to run by that final horse last but there is very little pace in here which could lead to him being the one that is chased in the lane. With the race on dirt, there's the potential he's a decent price as well. 11-ITWASTHISBIG draws outside for Arnett but I wouldn't be surprised if he looks to clear off some horses early from the outside draw. He had improved in his last three starts and although he may be a notch below some of these in class, he can't be dismissed for the barn that's off to a hot start. 3-CAMP DADDY was a good claim for $20 last fall as he stepped up off that race with a win and pair of runner-up performances. The question here is the distance but if he handles the two turns he should be very tough.

Wide open race closes the card with what looks to be a decent amount of early pace that is bunched on the inside. With the in mind, I'll look to the closer, 5-RUSSIAN TO WIN as he takes the class plunge in here. The Tracy barn if off to a fine start on the meet and despite the layoff this one has worked very well toward the return. The class drop and layoff leave some questions as well as the poor performances before the layoff, but the consistent, solid work pattern cannot be overlooked. 2-WINGING WAYS will be one to show speed as he has raced with mixed results. He always seems to take money at the windows though as he comes into here off a pair of works. 4-PERFECT WAGER could be a sleeper if the pace does battle upfront. He is winless at the distance but has found the board in 5 of 7 starts going 5 1/2 as he should pick up the pieces late.

3-TONY'S MORNING LINE was claimed from his last start of 2023. Like the way he's been working. It's interesting to note that his rider rode a different member of this field in last and finished second at a similar level. 5-HUNTER'S GHOST is one of several in here claimed from his last start. This runner won his last start at Delta. His new connections are off to a hot start. Figures at a square price. 2-IRISH DECLARATION flies late. He's been primarily a router but does have a win at this distance. 

Not in love with 4-SHARPENYOURFAITH but he's dropping to the right level, he does have some speed, and he does race for hot connections. 2-HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY has a great chance to improve. He split the field in last at Turfway, his first race around two turns. Could improve with experience. 6-MONEY AGENT might be worth a look. He's another dropping to a better level. His first race of the meet wasn't bad despite a lack of many drills going into his first race of the year. Could be better prepared to get the distance today. 

3-EUCLID AVENUE makes his local debut and his first start for this barn while stretching out for the first time. He’s had two good local drills since his last start in Florida. Hasn’t shown a lot of zip in his sprint races but there is little speed in this race and he could be the quickest of the bunch. Class drop can’t hurt. Might leave them behind. 5-MYSTIC POWER was never competitive in his lone race at Turfway but he has continued to train well, he’s racing with Lasix for the first time, and he’s racing for the top barn. Improvement should be expected. 7-ALVIN does have proven route speed. He’s moving back up in class in his first start since getting claimed by this barn but this field does appear pretty easy. 4-ICE AXE might need the start but he has finished in the money in six of his 10 starts at the distance and in all four of his local starts.

4-MCVICKER could be the best of these. He might hold a slight speed edge. He finished third here at this level on opening day in what appeared to be a “key” race. He dueled for the lead in that spot. It could be the tightener he needed. 1-CROWN ROYAL KID wired the field in his career debut. Drew the rail again. Comes right back at a level that could make him the prohibitive favorite. Would certainly not surprise if he won right back. 3-GRAPHENE CASSOCK is back with trainer Arnett. This duo had some success together racing in Iowa and Florida. He hasn’t been in the best of form in Louisiana but could start to come around now that he’s back in this barn.

6-GOOD APPLE simply dominated on opening day. It’s true he was meeting Illinois-bred maidens but he didn’t even break a sweat after leading every step of the way. He’s likely to face stiffer competition in this spot, again against Illinois breds, along with far more pressure on the front end but guessing he’ll be up to the challenge. The race for second place is tougher to figure but think it might fall to 7-RHODIUMS PRIDE. He’s been off since November but has five legitimate drills coming into this race. He won his first two starts, including an allowance race in Indiana against open company, but just never fired in the Futurity at Fanduel in his last, despite going off as the low-priced favorite. However, his recent works suggest that he’s ready to bounce back. 1-CLYDE’S GREEN GO has been well regarded since his initial start and he’s had a number of good races against open company. He won the only time he faced state breds. He often displays good late kick which could come in handy against all the speed types in this race. 8-WILDWOOD RUBEN had three races and ran well in all of them. He hasn’t raced since June but sports many drills coming into this spot. His barn brings them ready to run.

1-RUTH OF JUDAH drops once more. She finished second, at double this claiming price, in her last start in Louisiana. Although the barn specializes in turf runners, this filly did show she could run on dirt, at least at lower claiming levels. 8-HAVALENE sports slow drills but she does race for the top barn and they win with 21% of their first timers. 5-MAGGIE E has had many starts but she’s coming off a good second in her first start for this barn and she has finished in the money in seven of her nine races at this distance.

Have to give 8-PROTONIC POWER the edge in this one. He’s been steadily racing all winter and even tackled stakes rivals a couple times. Many of his previous local starts were on turf but think his local dirt races were better. He finished second in both of those. There appears to be more than enough early pace to set things up for him. Should be able to take them late. Not sure if 5-UNIFIED DREAMS can beat top choice, he finished behind that rival the two times they met, but think he’s capable of displaying sustained speed, which many of the other quick horses are unable to do. Like that he usually finishes in the money. Could hold on to share. Local favorite 10-READTHECLIFFNOTES returns as a 9-year-old. He always loved this track. Ten of his 13 victories were scored here. However, he is nine and his last couple of years haven’t been that productive. Not sure he can still be highly competitive at this level.

There seems to be one “obvious” top choice in this race and maybe a couple under-the-radar contenders. 3-CAMP DADDY kind of stands out on paper. He’s been in competitive form while meeting better on a stronger circuit. He appears to have the versatility to handle any kind of pace. His barn is off to a strong start. Would expect him to be a rather short-priced favorite and he could live up to it. The Block-trained 8-SIMPLE LOGIC is primarily a turf runner. However, he did finish second the last time he raced on dirt here and went off as the odds-on favorite. But, there are a couple longshots here that I would consider in vertical wagers. First of all, 9-WESLAN. Ignore those last couple races at Churchill. The company was just too tough. But he has run well on this track on more than one occasion. The one that interests me however is 5-MOVE IN SILENCE. Previously trained by Rivelli, he’s making his first start for Butler and this barn sports a lofty 31% win percentage with runners starting for them for the first time and 27% with runners coming off similar layoffs. This barn had six start at the meet and four of them finished in the money. In a race with little speed, this one could be sent right from the gate and dare the others to catch him.

5-RUSSIAN TO WIN returns from a lengthy layoff and drops a few levels to make his first start for this barn and his first start on this track. He’s had five better-than average workouts in preparation for his return to racing. Obviously has some issues necessitating the long layoff but like that he’s coming back at a level where he can win. 3-ALYANAABI went off as the even-money favorite in his local debut but was narrowly defeated, losing by a neck after leading from the start. Can improve with a race over the track but it has to be noted that he’s been running out of gas late in recent races. The extra distance of this race could compromise his chances. 1-HURTS SO BAD completes the sprint-route-sprint cycle, although racing for a different barn since he got claimed from last. Like that he’s turning back in distance. He stopped badly in that route race in last but could have plenty left for the finish with the return to sprinting.

P 8 Shes Got It All 5 Angostura Hanover 4 Settn A Precedent

P 5 Taurasi 4 Jabberwocky 6 Whichwaytothebeach

P 8 The Longest Yard 7 Flyingevenbettor 1 Lets Tie One On

P 3 Rjs Superfreak 1 Odds On Kickoff 2 Kaptain Karlos

P 2 Nazare 1 Speaker Of Peace 8 Write Me A Rose

P 1 Logan Harold 4 Geronimo Creek 2 Tricky McWicky

P 5 Livinthebeachlife 6 Ilikemebettor 1 Ron

P 7 Rock And Twist 8 Sweet Deisel 9 Order One To Go

P 7 Moonwalker 4 Warraweeforlaura 5 Vis A Vis Bluechip

P 1 Codename Cigar Box 4 Wheels On Fire 6 Capitano Italiano

P 3 Southwind Sambucca 1 Toronto 10 Backstreet Gambler