Handicapper Tips & Picks

Trainer F. Villa has a win early in the season and will send out a capable pair in this race that will also race protected. #2 IZZY’S MONSTER has the benefit of local experience and around two turns on this main track. She must improve at this level, a step up from last season and number wise her stablemate #3 SILKY WARRIOR has recorded some of the faster races and consistent figures. That includes races last year over the BTP dirt and current form coming in from the TP races under a similar par to today’s event.

#5 DIALED INNA will also race protected here and brings in upside for the live connections. She recorded competitive efforts under similar conditions last year and fitness coming in second off the layoff. She caught a higher race par returning on 3/20 at TP and might not have had full intent that day giving up recency and the front wraps added, something to look for here.

#8 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN also added the front wraps last out and returns today with the barn change and time off to make her first start of the year. She appears live in this spot with O. Mojica aboard and one that has races that fit on par and consistent figures that fit today’s event and could be overlooked. T

MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN shares the Q4 Square OptixPlot position with the Villa pair, IZZY’S MONSTER and SILKY WARRIOR and those runners from off the pace could be assisted by the “Fire” Contention and higher 40 SpeedRate, factors that could make things tougher than it might appear on paper for #7 BLESSED ANNA at least to consider on the win end if a shorter number with #6 APRIL’S GEM one that should continue to improve with racing (and TURF) and another that can show more early speed here.

#4 HOT DAME finished behind SILKY WARRIOR when they met last June. To HOT DAME’s credit, she has a solid HAW record that she will look to returning from the layoff with the barn and owner change. In terms of class, on her best day she has been able to win at this level, though has had some favorable trips and could find contention with her preferred front running style here. 

#2 BOYCE’S BANDITA returns to make a belated debut and in terms of class a lateral change on this circuit with the shift to open MCL company. Going back to her debut, she was supported heavily as the race favorite, down from the 8-1 ML and after a SLOG made a RUSH into the DUEL between horses and with the eventual and next out allowance winner, Goldicat. There should be intent for this spot with the drop, steady works coming back for this race and given her late start to racing and belated second start as a 4yo she should be all systems go here.

Michele Boyce will also return with a second time starter #7 AKARI. She debuted back on 1/17 at TP on a very, very, very cold night, the races were cancelled after the 5^th. She took some time before returning to the published work tab though her first move after the debut was a strong 47.2 half mile and has kept up with the conditioning in the works since and the board has been sending out live including a win with today’s rider, O. Hernandez.

#3 TRIBEST is one of the more established in this field and fits off her current form, form she will be required to hold on this circuit and off the claim though better suited for the one turf it took them a long time to make that change. #5 WRITTEN CONSENT also brings in established and current form that fit should she transfer. While the two could just catch the right group, they are still going to be tested from their recent starts, races that featured many other longtime maidens and not the strongest fields.  

#1 SHARP STICK is upgraded with the changes to show up in this spot and off their current form this season with races over this course from last year. As far as the current OP cycle, they compromised with the poor break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip on 12/30 and given a flow-upgrade staying on as the BOS through a Very Fast early (and Fast late) pace at the longer than ideal mile distance last month.

#2 DEFIANT MALICE wheels right back from opening day and some change for this second start of the meet. The class and distance change are notable though also finds a rider change following a less than ideal ride making a RUSH into TROUBLE and showed enough in that trip to suggest they can IMPROVE. Overall improvement could be projected from the sophomore foundation in this third start of the year. The two first time starters #3 IRISH COAST and #4 THE RIDGE could jump up as the new faces for capable connections though also have some hurdles here giving up experience and taking on older.

DEFIANT MALICE will require that step forward with #5 SPANISH DOUBLOON and #7 ALIBI IKE in the field, runners that have recorded some of the higher figures in this field in their recent starts and will be tested for that to hold on this circuit and recent barn changes. 

#5 POSITIONDUMONI has the benefit of recency and in prior form cycles has improved second off and could follow that pattern into this race. She would present that edge in this field as otherwise she has not run as fat as some others though many of those others are coming off layoffs and might require a race and would require their top efforts as well.

A case can be made for #7 COCKTAIL CUTIE and for solid local connections taking over that can be a positive. She will show up here without much time for the new barn given the race back on 3/10 and does not show a local work and had to handle the ship out of California. Her better races fit on par as a contender though her recent Los Al form requires a turnaround as her best days of racing did not appear at night. 

#1 SHEZ RECKLESS return with some changes from the race last week that could suggest intent here. The one thing that does not change is the draw and going back to that 3/31 event she was climbing (NO_HANDLE) early giving up position and showing some run in spots after getting her legs. They might try and send from the rail here though likely if that is the plan should find company with #8 MY LADY SLEW likely to send from the outside and #3 PLAY TWENTY one that had a rough start and her better, more competitive races to date were when run lone on the lead.

Trip was subtle for #4 GO STORMIN GIRL last week and could be some intent back on shorter rest with C. Emigh back aboard. She was restless in the GATE and showed early speed, a trip that is okay for her though perhaps better when she can rate and come with a late run – the Quad IV Square Surface/Distance Plot would allow for that trip – and the Standard (current form) could allow here the jump on #2 PALAGO and #7 LADY ATLANTIC.

#6 MISS WINDY SLEW returns with the group from the 3/23 common race and race behind open length and next out winner, Lily’s Woofy. MISS WINDY SLEW has some form over this course and with a less than ideal trip two weeks ago could benefit from that race and the second time blinkers coming back for this race with upside and should be overlooked.

#5 WITCHING put in a couple of competitive minor finish efforts here last spring and while she is a reach for the top spot, she could sneak into the exotics at a price. 

#5 CHARTED has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and takes the class drop where he should have no excuses to day. This will be his second start for Martinez and coming back from the 2/10 TP race with the 6^th and 7^th place finishers won in their next start to win under $15k  MCL conditions on that circuit and Mining Camp, the 11^th place finisher from that event showed up back on this circuit with a place finish under $15k MCL conditions on opening day.

#8 LUCKY PAL returns to make a belated second start and tough to take much from the debut given the time off that followed and the ELP track profile at the time that favored horses on the lead and made it tough to pass and make up ground. That makes their return here closer to a debut and given the field on the day and all but a few still maidens could be taken as a class drop.

#4 GUYDON has continued to step forward race to race and one that looks to be racing himself into shape. He moved forward opening Sunday from the first two OP starts and today race sits under similar conditions with a lower par. That could upgrade the group from that race and the added ground perhaps the biggest advantage for #7 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX and those two looking to turn the tables on #6 RAISERICHIESRANSOM on the barn change and show finish after stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the star and tiring late. He was colder on the board for Rivelli at 9.5-1 and less fancied than his 1-5 open length stablemate winner, Purple Octopus. The overall recorded is tougher to trust for #3 CHERRY ORCHARD as he returns here from that common event though in the past has been able to pick up a check and should be the longer odds (along with #1 ARTIE AND JESSIE) here and his OptixPLOT position is in line with some of the others in this field.

The shorter distance is noted for #9 BLACK RUSSIAN one that otherwise fits at this level. He showed a pattern of SLOG last year and if that continues he could be left with a lot to running on late. The shorter distance of today’s race could be tougher for #2 GRAND FESTIVAL one of the older runners in this field especially with the inside draw and his runstyle. 

#7 HEART OF HANISCH could present a pace advantage and upside as she makes her seconds tart back off the layoff. She showed early speed last month, though a hurdle making a return from the 600-day layoff and return late in the FG meet. She will find a class change with the drop and circuit change and picking up a live rider in O. Mojica to suggest further intent.

With HEART OF HANISCH on the front end she has the preference over the other front running types including #1 OPALINE though a scenario where the front runners get picked up late. That upgrades the tracking Squares: #2 ONACOUNTA as she makes her second start this season and could get first run on #4 HOLY IMAGE and the edge returning here over Circle #8 SUNDAY SPIRIT.

#3 GABRIELLA ATTACK is not as “obvious” as ONACOUNTA though can work a trip and finds the class drop and rider change wheeling right back for this race to suggest intent and on her first day she is not too far out of it. Centeno will pick up the call on #6 EVIE JEAN one that is tougher to trust on the win end, though a Q3 Square in a Snowflake Contention is a combination that has pulled off an upset. 

The race dynamic is tricky here with the higher 67 SpeedRate paired with the Snowflake contention. That is in part to many in here with the distance change stretching out and should keep the early pace honest. That includes #9 RED HORNET wheeling back from a legit EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago.

#6 CATEGORY TEN could get the right trip and end intent as one of two for trainer A. Merez. They are upgraded on Surface/Distance and those races last year on the dirt fit on par including the 5^th from the MRV allowance back in November.  His stablemate #8 BOURBON LIFE brings in some overall upside as a lightly raced sophomore, though one that is N2 eligible and today is the first dirt start.

The race shape (Plot) gives the edge here to #4 ATKINS over #3 ACTION SEEKER as the two show up here from the 3/7 common FG race. Similar Plot shape/position falls to #1 ARROW STRIKE going out for a live team in Butler and Bendezu as they have paired up for success this meet and with this horse. This team has had success together going back to last year with the recent races at FAN but also on this circuit, the 4/13 return from the 219-day layoff at a $25k N2L condition and today’s distance turned a place finish with the rail draw. 

#6 MISCHIEF MY WAY earned a follow off her debut two weeks ago, a tough spot (and trip) to debut late in the season during closing week of the long FG meet. She should benefit from the experience and appears intent with the timing here on quick return as well. She lunged (SLOG) out of the gate and took contact (TROUBLE_S) after with Rosario taking hold and back to chase inside where she showed run (TRAFFIC, MOVE) and visuals to suggest she has and wants to show more early speed and could be a threat with that trip in this group.

#9 BOLTORO has recorded some of the higher figures in this field and the horse to beat on that front. That includes her limited dirt races, both in early 2023 at the FG in off-the-turf events both with place finish results and figures in line with her current turf/synth form.

#8 STARINA has the current form from the FG and slight class relief though perhaps not quite enough for the top spot as the DROP was projected for her (and #5 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE) off the visuals this year on that circuit and the class change being more of a lateral move for #4 ELODIE though some upside from the trips all things considered. The MSW class is still a test here for both #1 REALISTIC GOAL and #2 PACIFIC VIEW runners that have some local form and intent behind them for the connections. They are required to step up, especially with those “newer” faces.

Route runners kick off the day as some of these may be back in the starter series later this summer. Looking to 7-BLESSED ANNA on top as she has enough tactical speed to remain in contention early and should be running on late. The barn is off to a great start and she picks up top jock Centeno. 5-DIALED INNA should be just off the early pace as she looks for her first Hawthorne win. She has found the board in 4 of 5 starts here and put together some races last summer that would be good enough to win here. 3-SILKY WARRIOR (IRE) will require pace to chase as she figures to settle back early and make one run in the lane. With the long stretch, let's see if she can save ground and close at a price.

An interesting race in here as there's a few that have speed. 2-BOYCE'S BANDITA makes her first tart off the layoff as she switches to the Vanden Berg barn. The rider change and venue change both help as she has a nice workout pattern leading into this spot. 5-WRITTEN CONSENT is going to take a good amount of action as she makes her third start off the claim. She will be hoping for a contested pace upfront as she figures to close from the second flight. The concern with her is the 0 for 13 in the win column. 6-SISTER SWEDE debuts at 4 for Tracy as she has a nice pattern of drills coming into here as well. She gets Lasix for the first start but is likely to sneak away at a bit of a price.

This is a sneaky tough race with three in here that are very similar for talent as well as a couple unknown firsters. Going to look to 3-IRISH COAST as he debuts for Tanner Tracy with Lasix. He was worked consistently toward this start. and is well bred. He isn't being asked for too much first time out but may sneak off at a price due to some of the others entered in here. 1-SHARK STICK looks to be the horse to beat as he has been facing much tougher throughout his young career. He shortens back up today and should run on late but with this many tries to break through without a win, it makes it tough to endorse at the short price. 7-ALIBI IKE has improved in a pair of starts since being claimed for $7,500 back in February. He steps up again but his figures match him well with others in here. He has enough speed to rate close early and should get the jump on a horse like Sharp Stick at the top of the lane.

The implementation of the option to race for an increased tag as an Illinois-bred could be a factor here as my top three all have chosen to do so. 5-POSITIONDUMONI will be a decent price as the connections run this one for $37,500 while the other Pompell Illinois-bred, Heavenly Scent remains in for the $25,000. Positiondumoni held her own last out against some quality allowance runners as she chased well into the lane before giving way late. She may have needed that start off the layoff and has every right to improve with the class drop today. 4-JERSEY JET will be favored for Becker as she has speed. She makes her first start as a 3yo and has worked consistently toward her return. Let's see if she can clear and handle the distance in her return. 6-COWGIRL FRANKIE will be running on late as she has to hope for a contested pace upfront. So often she gets away from the gate slowly as that has been her major issue. With a clean break, and subsequent closer contention early, she could be an upset factor.

The 5 1/2 furlongs could be the difference maker in here as there's some pace to chase. I looked to 4-GO STORMIN GIRL as she ran a solid race in her first start of the meet and picks Emigh back up in the saddle. I expect she settles in the second flight early and runs on in the lane. 3-PLAY TWENTY is one with speed who should get away much better in here. This has been one of the better distances for her as she has shown the ability to win on the front end or to rate a bit at 5 1/2. 2-PALAGO looked to have needed her last as she came into the spot off just the one work. On top of that, she faced a very tough winner in there. Despite the 7th place effort, she was on two lengths off the second place finisher as she's another that will benefit from the added 16th.

Sometimes the favorite just looks to be the best and that appears to be the case in here. Looking to 5-CHARTED as he makes his second start off the claim. He looks to be better on a conventional dirt surface and has enough speed to clear. There won't be much value in here but this is the winning spot. 8-LUCKY PAL showed little in his debut last summer and was eased under the wire. You tend to wonder what the issue was, if any, or if the additional of Lasix turns this one around. With Loveberry up, he scares me more than any other to beat the favorite. 9-BLACK RUSSIAN comes off the layoff into today's race. He has a couple of drills toward the return as he was able to hold his own at this level last summer.

An intriguing maiden route closes the card with runners coming in from different venues for this spot. 8-STARINA gets the nod for me as she is bred to run all day and has improved in recent races. She faced some tough company in New Orleans before shipping here and will just need some pace to chase. 9-BOLTORO is the one to beat as she is overdue for her maiden breaker. She just missed in a race that came off the grass in her last but that was a 1 1/2 miles. Tend to wonder if the 1 mile 70 yards will be enough real estate for her. 6-MISCHIEF MY WAY showed little in her debut in New Orleans but also dealt with a poor start in that spot. She picks up Loveberry today and may be a sleeper at a price.

There are no sure things in racing but I would think that if you are playing the Place Pick 8, you could be pretty confident that 7-BLESSED ANNA could be a single. She’s been in great form and meeting a field of runners who are not. Going back a year, she failed to finish in the money only one time in her dirt races. Her new barn has sent out nothing but live runners and her rider, tied for the lead, was the leading rider last meet. 5-DIALED INNA might be the only one capable of offering a legitimate challenge. She didn’t run well on synthetic track in last but she was making her first start since September and her first start for this barn. Finished in the money in all four of her local dirt starts. We’ll see if she can bounce back from her dull effort. 4-HOT DAME didn’t like the company she faced or the company she kept in her last two at Fair Grounds. In her first start there she didn’t beat a horse. In her second, her last, she refused to race. But she has done very well here in the past. Changed barns after that last disaster. Would imagine that she’ll be sent right to the lead. Has a chance to wire them at a huge price.

Competitive race for a low-level maiden claimer. 3-TRIBEST might be the quickest of these. We know she’s fit because she was racing all winter. She has been tiring late but the cutback in distance could work in her favor. 5-WRITTEN CONSENT has managed to finish second in five of her 13 races. She’s one of the few in here that seems capable of making a late move. All the speed could come back to her. 2-BOYCE’S BANDITA finished second in her lone race. That happened downstate last June. She has changed barns since. Has been working well for her comeback. Could vie for the lead.

Wide open race. Can make a case for, and against, every member of this field. Taking a flyer with first timer 3-IRISH COAST. Love the steady workout pattern. His rider and trainer teamed up for a longshot victory last weekend. Might be able to do it again. 1-SHARP STICK ships in from the tough Oaklawn meet. Turns back in distance for his first local start of the year. He had some success here last year while meeting maiden specials. Might earn his diploma in this easier company. 4-THE RIDGE is a Rivelli trained first timer with Loveberry in the irons. That duo has teamed up for a lot of wins in the past. This one hasn’t been working especially well but wouldn’t count him out.

5-POSITIONDUMANI displayed good speed in her first start of the meet but she had been off for 10 months and that layoff took its toll. She’s moving from state breds top open company today but also going from allowance to claiming. She should have benefitted from that recent trip. Could be more effective late in this one. 2-PINK LADY LU SHA is fresh off a maiden score in New Orleans. That was her first race for this trainer. Like that she comes from off the pace in a race filled with speed. It should be noted, however, that her best two races came on off tracks and it will be dry and sunny this weekend. Don’t really know what to do with 4-JERSEY JET. She ran well in both starts but both were four furlongs and the last was in August. She hasn’t been working fast but you have to believe she’ll be ready for her talented connections.

There was little chance that 3-PLAY TWENTY was going to beat Lily’s Woofy on opening day but she did beat the rest of the field. “Woofy” came right back to win again. This mare has only one to beat to the lead. Guessing she’ll be a close second early but take over by the time they turn for home. 4-GO STORMIN GIRL, like most, needed last. She wheels back quickly. Has six wins and 10 other in-the-money finishes on this track. Think she’ll make a run at them late. 1-SHEZ RECKLESS certainly needed last after eight months off. She ran for a waivered claim in that last race so they could get a race into her but now drops to a level where she’ll be more competitive and could be poised to surprise.

5-CHARTED almost looks like standout status. This gelding ran well every time he took on company at the right level. Ignore his last dull effort at Turfway. He’s dropping to the right level and returning to the right surface. 7-LARRY’S LUNCHBOX and 6-RAISERICHIESRANSOM both chased Purple Octopus to no avail in last but they did manage to finish second and third in that race with less than a length separating them. Both are eligible to improve without that “monster” in the field.

7-HEART OF HANISCH tired after displaying brief speed in last in Louisiana. However, she was running for the first time in 20 months and probably returning at a level too high. Drops to meet easier in her local debut. Races without blinkers for the first time which could allow her to relax a bit more and save something for the stretch run. 1-OPALINE returns from a nine-month layoff. She drops a notch. Races for the top barn. Figures prominently. 5-SEQUAYA beat only one in her last start but think she was only racing to tune her up. Drops to meet easier company. She had some competitive races against runners like these her last summer. Could awaken at a square price.

3-ACTION SEEKER has been in great form for a long time. He finished out of the money only once time in his last 12 starts. Speedy runner just missed in his last at FG, racing at this level and distance. He’s going to have plenty of company trying for the lead in this one but think he’s fit enough to outlast them. Guessing 4-ATKINS will be the main competition. He finished well behind top pick in last in Louisiana but he was claimed from that race by a barn that sports a lofty 32% win average with their first-time claims. He has been more of a sprinter through his career but gets the right rider to get him to relax enough so he has plenty left for the stretch run. 9-RED HORNET is hard to figure. He has the “figs” that suggest he could be the fastest in the field but those numbers were earned on turf. He ran on dirt only twice, including his last start. He was favored in that race, his local debut, but lost all chance when he stumbled so we really have nothing to measure his dirt ability. Guess we’ll see.

9-BOLTORO looks like the one to beat. She ran primarily on turf and synthetic tracks but she did race in two dirt routes last year in Louisiana and finished second in both. She’s fresh off a narrow loss in a mile and a half race in Florida so the distance of this race should not be an obstacle. 6-MISCHIEF MY WAY has the pedigree to be a good one. She beat only one rival in her lone start, a maiden turf race at Fair Grounds, but she had a ton of trouble at the start and simply never recovered. Think she’ll have an entirely different outcome today. 8-STARINA hasn’t done better than split any field but she’s probably taking on a bit easier group of maidens in her local debut. 10-TWAS LOLA drew a tough post for her debut but she does race for the top barn and she gets a sharp rider in the irons.

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