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Sat April 6th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Tough to ignore the live connections sending out #5 HUNTERS
GHOST one that will give up local experience, though has a local work and A.
Centeno has been aboard for all three of the J. Arnett wins this season.
Bendezu aboard CRANKSHAFT two weeks ago jumps to #3 TONYS
MORNING LINE for another pair of live connections. They will make a belated
return here and have some solid sprint form. His local record shows 0/3, though
context matters as each of those races were back in 2023 at a higher level
including the Lightening Jet stakes and the figures recorded at the time
(75-83) fit on par here.
As far as that 3/23 finale, a common race with CRANKSHAFT longshot
#1 MAC PANDOWDY turned in a sneaky run (see OptixNOTES in the Past 3 Runlines)
at very long odds coming off the layoff and while improvement is required, he
should be longer odds again and one to take a stab with.
The more “logical” #4 CRANKSHAFT one that was upgraded on the
day as he had the tendency to fire fresh and while he has the early speed and
conditioning on his side, he will be tested to hold form off that effort today
and should be shorter odds and mentioned rider change and could have to deal
with #9 SAND MOUNTAIN on the front end. The other R. Martinez runner #2 IRISH
DECLARATION will return off the layoff and one that does hold one of his
stronger figures to date at the 5.5f distance (FAN 4/23) most of his races were
contested going longer and he does not show a published work this year.
Going back to the opener on opening day, #7 DYNABLUE put in
a huge CLOSE and eye catching late run and earned a follow out of that event and
notable rider change with Mojica back aboard. The shorter distance was the
concern two weeks ago and while the extra .5f might have assisted last out in
the race result, it could still be shorter than his ideal here and takes the
class rise as well.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:08 PM CST
Manny Perez returns with a pair in this race and both taking
a different path with a class drop. #6 MONEY AGENT will make his first start in
for the MCL tag and should move up naturally with that change and upside with
the conditioning for this second start of the season and rider change back to
A. Lezcano. That will shift F. Reyes to #1 ICE VORTEX one that has races at the
MCL level though a lower level than the events last year and one of his better
race was the show finish over this HAW main track last July.
Another live barn with T. Young making it look easy here to
start out two-for-two represented by #2 HAWAIIAN HIDE AWAY. This one finds
class relief back on this circuit and their early speed should also be in play
with J. Felix aboard and tougher to make the lead or see the 1/25 race in the
FOG. Even though he raced at a lower MCL tag at TP than #4 SHARPENYOURFAITH the
race par was much higher and collectively higher overall than SHARPENYOURFAITH racing
in age restricted company for the juvenile and sophomore starts and takes on
older for the first time here – similar factors for #5 BROADWAY RED.
#7 SOLOMAN VANDY also exits the TP meet and while placement
for his abilities appears at the right level, he is unproven on the surface
returning to the conventional dirt. #3 BUBBY BOY is proven on the dirt and two
turn distance. He has had some subtle trips in fill fields in each of the three
starts and WIDE trips throughout could present an overall upgrade.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:36 PM CST
On age, #2 ELECTRIC CHARGE and #4 ICE AXE sit as the older
runners in this field and could have that edge on their side. ICE AXE returns from the layoff though going
back to his races here last season at two turns and MSW company those races sit
on par and all competitive and even closed out the 2023 year with a BTL effort
at HS Indy. ELECTRIC CHARGE has the benefit of the race coming back for this
second start and upside off the trip shown in the OptixNOTES Past 3 Runlines especially
with class DROP.
#1 FIRE WIRE is upgraded as he makes his second start of the
meet and key STRETCH out in distance. He has upside at the distance based on
his physicality and prior “trips” from the TP route races. His local figure
earned two weeks ago stands out in the race series, his first start on the dirt;
a number that sits in line with #3 EUCLID AVENUE’s last out figure. They will
take a slight drop on this circuit and in claiming tag, though find further
changes to run against older and around two turns for the first time. The
changes to stretch out and take on older also come into play for #5 MYSTIC POWER
though more of a lateral change from the higher $50k MCL event back on 12/1, a
race that has held form.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:04 PM CST
#2 MINNESOTA MOON had a look on opening day and perhaps will
follow the pattern of next out winners with Robust and Desert Highway winning
last weekend. He will return with a slight addition of ground under similar
conditions and retain Bendezu. As live as that race has been so far, noted live
connections with #3 GRAPHENE CASSOCK one that presents upside off the 2/16 trip
when taking KICKBACK- over the off-track and his races contested at the claiming
level sit as the more competitive to date.
Those two could find the right trip as the early pace should
be kept honest with #1 CROWN ROYAL KID coming off a maiden win at the rail and
#4 MCVICKER back after setting an honest pace two weeks ago picking up J. Felix
for Vanden Berg. Those two could also be joined by #5 GETTIN PAID one that has
some natural early speed, a change in circuit and surface in this second start
off the layoff trying to find where he fits and given a look from the Plot, an
upgrade from perhaps his “on paper” form.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:32 PM CST
#6 GOOD APPLE moved up on everyone’s radar after the smashing
(B+) maiden win two eeks ago. He was able to establish the lead on his own
(EASY_LEAD) and in hand (NO_PUSH) continued to CLOSE to the wire while clear
from the others. The effort should see him transfer here and given the
OptixPLOT placement (Quad I/II Square) can dictate his trip, while taking on
more established types.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
#1 RUTH OF JUDAH started out her career over this
main track last July and GREEN on debut in MSW company has improved off that
start with experience and the drop to MCL company. She will return to this circuit
and appears well placed to clear the condition finding another drop from the
MCL event where she had a rough break (TROUBLES+) last month at the FG. #2
HEAVENLY HASH also makes the circuit switch though first local and
conventional dirt start and has some questions on that front though on her best
day should she transfer her form, she would be no surprise.
#5 MAGGIE E returns from the place finish two weeks ago and
while she stayed on as the BOS was unable to hold off her 93-1 stablemate Echo
Dreamer one that was an overlay to say the least. MAGGIE E in losing the lead
late (NO_FINISH) was also drifting (NO_LINE) out late and something to consider
and play against at a shorter number – and could take pace pressure with #8
HAVALENE making her debut today for Rivelli with Mojica in the saddle. #4
ARRINGTON could be overlooked of the group exiting the 3/23 common race and
with a subtle trip that could see her improve and look to turn the tables on
some others from that event here – improvement from #6 BABAS GAL could also
show today.
#7 GOT NO MORE TEARS makes a belated second start
after a belated debut last summer. This now 5yo mare lightly raced comes in
with steady works and will find the class drop that could suggest further
intent. Going back to that debut last year, she did make a positive PRERACE+
appearance and had some adversity in the trip behind the top two that finished
together and clear at the wire.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
#4 ARDENWOOD has the benefit of foundation this year and
finds a subtle change on this circuit. His early speed could become more
effective and hold in today’s race shape. Jockey I. Hernandez will take over, a
rider that has so far bade the most of limited mounts this meet with a pair of
wins (Allotrope, Short Straw) and show finish opening day on Lake Mills.
#5 UNIFIED DREAMS has held his form as of late though does
not find much if any change in class from the two most recent starts and while
on-the-board and pairing B- OptixGRADE efforts, he would have to find a little
more for that win. His form does not hold any edge over #8 PROTONIC POWER
preferred of the two trying to separate the pair “on paper” and would consult
the board for the final decision that includes #3 REGULAR GUY as well.
#7 GO EMI gives up a lot of recency returning from the
441-day layoff; and in running can give up a lot of ground with his closer
(Quad IV) runstyle. Looking at the Plot, his Large Square represents a strong
late kick and the “Sun” Contention along with honest 30 SpeedRate should assist
picking up horses late.
The lightly race and younger #1 SIVAKO and #6 OCEAN OF
STORMS have overall upside, though some concerns in this spot whether it be
class or distance, though ones to follow going forward.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:56 PM CST
Will look to get a little creative in this race given the
timing and some in this field that could be looking for the grass next month. #9
WESLAN will make his return and going back to the allowance races here last
season he was consistent and competitive while a tough short on the win end. He
did break his maiden first off the layoff and the race par from the allowance
routes last year were slightly higher than today and that could be his edge on
timing and from the Plot position in this field.
The higher 46 SpeedRate and “Sun” Contention could present a
hurdle for #11 ITWASTHISBIG despite the Quad I Square position and the edge
over the “Circles” to the left of the y-axis – the higher SpeedRate could also
factor for #3 CAMP DADDY and #2 PATH TO SUCCESS above the ParLine. PATH TO
SUCCESS could also get attention coming off the win and figure two weeks ago
though could be a taxing effort as he was drifting (NO_LINE) in the lane and under
a ride to hold and hold off the chalk closing FG day. His stablemate #7 DAPPER
DUDE moved up for show behind that pair and could move forward in today’s race
shape (Quad IV Square) under A. Gallardo. #8 SIMPLE LOGIC fits as an individual
though trip should be considered given the Surface/Distance Plot as a runner
that could get attention here for the connections and one those in this field
that could be waiting for TURF.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 6:24 PM CST
#5 RUSSIAN TO WIN scratched from a similar conditioned claiming
event opening day and this spot looks preferred by the connections with the
added ground, positive Plot position and keeping O. Mojica, the rider assigned
before the Trainer Scratch. #6 ALPINE GHOST stayed in the race opening day and
should benefit from the start (PREP) and subtle trip with the slight addition
of ground.
Those two could find a stalking trip behind #2 WINGING WAYS
one that will give up some recency though potential intent in this spot. He returned
off a similar layoff last season under similar conditions sprinting and
stumbling at the start (TROUBLE_S) had to make a RUSH and finished third. Their
win last season was gate to wire under L. Colon and his presence is noted here.
He will shift from #7 UNCAPTURED PULSE one that could be tougher to get to “on
paper” though on the Plot could find the right trip to compete and even a
scenario with an edge at longer odds than #9 BREAKING NEWS and in line with #10
FEROCITY one that catches a higher race par than the 3/24 race.
The “Fire” Contention rating could assist #4 PERFECT WAGER,
one that might also be kind of sneaky in here. While many this season prepped
for longer going shorter, this one might have prepped for shorter going longer
(ONE_TURN) last week and has that fitness and weight break with Y. Navas on
their side wheeling back for this race. That might also be the case for #1
HURTS SO BAD wheeling back from opening week and reclaimed by A. Meraz, a
trainer that had this one most of his career and including success showing early
speed with O. Hernandez in the saddle.