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Sun April 7th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Trainer F. Villa has a win early in the season and will send
out a capable pair in this race that will also race protected. #2 IZZY’S
MONSTER has the benefit of local experience and around two turns on this main
track. She must improve at this level, a step up from last season and number
wise her stablemate #3 SILKY WARRIOR has recorded some of the faster races and
consistent figures. That includes races last year over the BTP dirt and current
form coming in from the TP races under a similar par to today’s event.
#5 DIALED INNA will also race protected here and brings in
upside for the live connections. She recorded competitive efforts under similar
conditions last year and fitness coming in second off the layoff. She caught a
higher race par returning on 3/20 at TP and might not have had full intent that
day giving up recency and the front wraps added, something to look for here.
#8 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN also added the front wraps last out
and returns today with the barn change and time off to make her first start of
the year. She appears live in this spot with O. Mojica aboard and one that has
races that fit on par and consistent figures that fit today’s event and could
be overlooked. T
MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN shares the Q4 Square OptixPlot position with
the Villa pair, IZZY’S MONSTER and SILKY WARRIOR and those runners from off the
pace could be assisted by the “Fire” Contention and higher 40 SpeedRate, factors
that could make things tougher than it might appear on paper for #7 BLESSED
ANNA at least to consider on the win end if a shorter number with #6 APRIL’S
GEM one that should continue to improve with racing (and TURF) and another that
can show more early speed here.
#4 HOT DAME finished behind SILKY WARRIOR when they met last
June. To HOT DAME’s credit, she has a solid HAW record that she will look to
returning from the layoff with the barn and owner change. In terms of class, on
her best day she has been able to win at this level, though has had some
favorable trips and could find contention with her preferred front running
style here.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:08 PM CST
#2 BOYCE’S BANDITA returns to make a belated debut and in terms
of class a lateral change on this circuit with the shift to open MCL company.
Going back to her debut, she was supported heavily as the race favorite, down
from the 8-1 ML and after a SLOG made a RUSH into the DUEL between horses and
with the eventual and next out allowance winner, Goldicat. There should be
intent for this spot with the drop, steady works coming back for this race and
given her late start to racing and belated second start as a 4yo she should be
all systems go here.
Michele Boyce will also return with a second time starter #7
AKARI. She debuted back on 1/17 at TP on a very, very, very cold night, the
races were cancelled after the 5th. She took some time before
returning to the published work tab though her first move after the debut was a
strong 47.2 half mile and has kept up with the conditioning in the works since and
the board has been sending out live including a win with today’s rider, O.
Hernandez.
#3 TRIBEST is one of the more established in this field and
fits off her current form, form she will be required to hold on this circuit
and off the claim though better suited for the one turf it took them a long time
to make that change. #5 WRITTEN CONSENT also brings in established and current form
that fit should she transfer. While the two could just catch the right group,
they are still going to be tested from their recent starts, races that featured
many other longtime maidens and not the strongest fields.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:36 PM CST
#1 SHARP STICK is upgraded with the changes to show up in
this spot and off their current form this season with races over this course
from last year. As far as the current OP cycle, they compromised with the poor
break (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip on 12/30 and given a flow-upgrade staying
on as the BOS through a Very Fast early (and Fast late) pace at the longer than
ideal mile distance last month.
#2 DEFIANT MALICE wheels right back from opening day and
some change for this second start of the meet. The class and distance change
are notable though also finds a rider change following a less than ideal ride
making a RUSH into TROUBLE and showed enough in that trip to suggest they can
IMPROVE. Overall improvement could be projected from the sophomore foundation
in this third start of the year. The two first time starters #3 IRISH COAST and
#4 THE RIDGE could jump up as the new faces for capable connections though also
have some hurdles here giving up experience and taking on older.
DEFIANT MALICE will require that step forward with #5
SPANISH DOUBLOON and #7 ALIBI IKE in the field, runners that have recorded some
of the higher figures in this field in their recent starts and will be tested
for that to hold on this circuit and recent barn changes.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 4:04 PM CST
#5 POSITIONDUMONI has the benefit of recency and in prior
form cycles has improved second off and could follow that pattern into this race.
She would present that edge in this field as otherwise she has not run as fat
as some others though many of those others are coming off layoffs and might
require a race and would require their top efforts as well.
A case can be made for #7 COCKTAIL CUTIE and for solid local
connections taking over that can be a positive. She will show up here without much
time for the new barn given the race back on 3/10 and does not show a local work
and had to handle the ship out of California. Her better races fit on par as a
contender though her recent Los Al form requires a turnaround as her best days
of racing did not appear at night.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:32 PM CST
#1 SHEZ RECKLESS return with some changes from the race last
week that could suggest intent here. The one thing that does not change is the
draw and going back to that 3/31 event she was climbing (NO_HANDLE) early giving
up position and showing some run in spots after getting her legs. They might
try and send from the rail here though likely if that is the plan should find
company with #8 MY LADY SLEW likely to send from the outside and #3 PLAY TWENTY
one that had a rough start and her better, more competitive races to date were
when run lone on the lead.
Trip was subtle for #4 GO STORMIN GIRL last week and could
be some intent back on shorter rest with C. Emigh back aboard. She was restless
in the GATE and showed early speed, a trip that is okay for her though perhaps
better when she can rate and come with a late run – the Quad IV Square Surface/Distance
Plot would allow for that trip – and the Standard (current form) could allow here
the jump on #2 PALAGO and #7 LADY ATLANTIC.
#6 MISS WINDY SLEW returns with the group from the 3/23
common race and race behind open length and next out winner, Lily’s Woofy. MISS
WINDY SLEW has some form over this course and with a less than ideal trip two
weeks ago could benefit from that race and the second time blinkers coming back
for this race with upside and should be overlooked.
#5 WITCHING put in a couple of competitive minor finish
efforts here last spring and while she is a reach for the top spot, she could sneak
into the exotics at a price.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 5:00 PM CST
#5 CHARTED has recorded some of the higher figures in this
field and takes the class drop where he should have no excuses to day. This will
be his second start for Martinez and coming back from the 2/10 TP race with the
6th and 7th place finishers won in their next start to
win under $15k MCL conditions on that
circuit and Mining Camp, the 11th place finisher from that event showed
up back on this circuit with a place finish under $15k MCL conditions on
opening day.
#8 LUCKY PAL returns to make a belated second start and
tough to take much from the debut given the time off that followed and the ELP
track profile at the time that favored horses on the lead and made it tough to
pass and make up ground. That makes their return here closer to a debut and
given the field on the day and all but a few still maidens could be taken as a
class drop.
#4 GUYDON has continued to step forward race to race and one
that looks to be racing himself into shape. He moved forward opening Sunday
from the first two OP starts and today race sits under similar conditions with
a lower par. That could upgrade the group from that race and the added ground
perhaps the biggest advantage for #7 LARRY’S LUNCHBOX and those two looking to
turn the tables on #6 RAISERICHIESRANSOM on the barn change and show finish
after stumbling (TROUBLE_S) at the star and tiring late. He was colder on the board
for Rivelli at 9.5-1 and less fancied than his 1-5 open length stablemate winner,
Purple Octopus. The overall recorded is tougher to trust for #3 CHERRY ORCHARD as
he returns here from that common event though in the past has been able to pick
up a check and should be the longer odds (along with #1 ARTIE AND JESSIE) here
and his OptixPLOT position is in line with some of the others in this field.
The shorter distance is noted for #9 BLACK RUSSIAN one that
otherwise fits at this level. He showed a pattern of SLOG last year and if that
continues he could be left with a lot to running on late. The shorter distance of
today’s race could be tougher for #2 GRAND FESTIVAL one of the older runners in
this field especially with the inside draw and his runstyle.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
#7 HEART OF HANISCH could present a pace advantage and
upside as she makes her seconds tart back off the layoff. She showed early
speed last month, though a hurdle making a return from the 600-day layoff and
return late in the FG meet. She will find a class change with the drop and
circuit change and picking up a live rider in O. Mojica to suggest further
intent.
With HEART OF HANISCH on the front end she has the preference
over the other front running types including #1 OPALINE though a scenario where
the front runners get picked up late. That upgrades the tracking Squares: #2
ONACOUNTA as she makes her second start this season and could get first run on #4
HOLY IMAGE and the edge returning here over Circle #8 SUNDAY SPIRIT.
#3 GABRIELLA ATTACK is not as “obvious” as ONACOUNTA though
can work a trip and finds the class drop and rider change wheeling right back
for this race to suggest intent and on her first day she is not too far out of it.
Centeno will pick up the call on #6 EVIE JEAN one that is tougher to trust on the
win end, though a Q3 Square in a Snowflake Contention is a combination that has
pulled off an upset.
Hawthorne Race 8
Post Time 5:56 PM CST
The race dynamic is tricky here with the higher 67 SpeedRate
paired with the Snowflake contention. That is in part to many in here with the
distance change stretching out and should keep the early pace honest. That
includes #9 RED HORNET wheeling back from a legit EX – EXCUSE two weeks ago.
#6 CATEGORY TEN could get the right trip and end intent as
one of two for trainer A. Merez. They are upgraded on Surface/Distance and
those races last year on the dirt fit on par including the 5th from
the MRV allowance back in November. His
stablemate #8 BOURBON LIFE brings in some overall upside as a lightly raced
sophomore, though one that is N2 eligible and today is the first dirt start.
The race shape (Plot) gives the edge here to #4 ATKINS over
#3 ACTION SEEKER as the two show up here from the 3/7 common FG race. Similar Plot
shape/position falls to #1 ARROW STRIKE going out for a live team in Butler and
Bendezu as they have paired up for success this meet and with this horse. This
team has had success together going back to last year with the recent races at
FAN but also on this circuit, the 4/13 return from the 219-day layoff at a $25k
N2L condition and today’s distance turned a place finish with the rail draw.
Hawthorne Race 9
Post Time 6:24 PM CST
#6 MISCHIEF MY WAY earned a follow off her debut two weeks
ago, a tough spot (and trip) to debut late in the season during closing week of
the long FG meet. She should benefit from the experience and appears intent
with the timing here on quick return as well. She lunged (SLOG) out of the gate
and took contact (TROUBLE_S) after with Rosario taking hold and back to chase
inside where she showed run (TRAFFIC, MOVE) and visuals to suggest she has and
wants to show more early speed and could be a threat with that trip in this
group.
#9 BOLTORO has recorded some of the higher figures in this
field and the horse to beat on that front. That includes her limited dirt
races, both in early 2023 at the FG in off-the-turf events both with place
finish results and figures in line with her current turf/synth form.
#8 STARINA has the current form from the FG and slight class
relief though perhaps not quite enough for the top spot as the DROP was
projected for her (and #5 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE) off the visuals this year on that
circuit and the class change being more of a lateral move for #4 ELODIE though
some upside from the trips all things considered. The MSW class is still a test
here for both #1 REALISTIC GOAL and #2 PACIFIC VIEW runners that have some
local form and intent behind them for the connections. They are required to step
up, especially with those “newer” faces.