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Fri April 12th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Keeneland Race 8
Post Time 3:44 PM CST
#6 LAVER could be overlooked off the recent running line and 8th place finish; an outcome compromised by the conditions and can IMPROVE off the near "excuse" that day. Working back from the November allowance he was upgraded X_BIAS and the show finish on 12/29 was an overcorrection staying on as the BOS through X_FLOW to hold in a BLANKET at the wire.
Oaklawn Race 1
Post Time 12:35 PM CST
#8 SUPER CONSTITUTION moved up on the drop and in the current
cycle that could land him in the right spot for that belated win. He shifts to
an outside post in this race and with some tactical speed can put himself in the
race, something he was unable to do last out getting SHUFFLE early and late on
the scene with a strong CLOSE.
#3 RAM makes his second start off the claim and returning to
the claiming N3 level where he was competitive earlier this season. The class
change also comes with the distance change a further positive for this horse
and for today’s race shape give his tracking runstyle; a style similar to #5
PRESSURE one that has held his form though will be tested to do that once again
(and likely shorter odds) coming back on the 19-day rest.
#2 LEAGUE OF LEGENDS has struggled to pick up a check and
top three spot this year though has continued to hold his form and record
numbers that fit on par and with this field. Trip is key once again with his
off the pace style though getting late in the season for the connections
looking for their first win, this could be their time.
#1 KENTUCKY BOURBON appeared claimed for Oaklawn though has
had setbacks including a scratch on 1/1 from a similar claiming tag though at
the N2 level they are eligible for and are racing above condition here.
Oaklawn Race 2
Post Time 1:10 PM CST
#4 FROSTY VI takes the big drop for this third start and not
the big sign of confidence for this filly that was picked up for $250k one year
ago. Overall she has not shown much on the track to give her a big push in this
spot, though the drop should move her up naturally here.
In terms of the older mares, there is not much between #5
ZONGS IRISH FROST and #7 DANCE MY WAY coming into this race and could allow the
board to provide the decision on race day. Both have competitive races at the
level and similar figures, DANCE MY WAY coming out of the slightly higher par
events of the two.
The entry could fit in this spot and complement each other:
#1 MITOLEMYBELLE will make a belated second start and class drop returning with
C. Torres. She has been entered a couple times since the February debut and brings
in a series of steady works here. #1A MISS TERRE finds a lateral change in
class as she makes her third start though has the recency, foundation and with the
pattern of SLOG has shown a late kick and with some in this field that have
shown early speed and a lack of finish, she could come running to pick up
horses late.
Oaklawn Race 3
Post Time 1:44 PM CST
#7 CHUN MONEY could be flying under the radar and in the
right spot to compete in this second start of the cycle. He raced for the
higher tag last month coming off a two month break though a higher race par in
against older and faces straight sophomores in this field. He comes back as a
gelding with three works since, second time Lasix, the two turn experience and
would also look for the front wrap removal.
#4 ALWAYS BE SMART has shown more and presents upside off
their races to date and finishing positions. Bejarano looked to have some options
in this field and sicks here as they comes back for this spot and third start
this season. Their debut projected upside (IMPROVE) and similar off a BTL
effort after missing (VSLOG) the break in the local February debut.
With Bejarano sticking with ALWAYS BE SMART, that will find
a rider change for #8 PENROD one that comes back today as a first time gelding
and looking to rebound after the TROUBLE trip in January and a case to be made
they have not had the chance to show their best. #3 NULLIFY will reunite with
K. Asmussen and with Lukas runners firing this one can be upgraded and off their
current form should they hold here in for the higher tag; though the race par
created a lateral move.
The class relief should benefit #6 TELL ‘EM I’M COMING one
that has form and route foundation this season, though the lack of early speed
and cold rider create other hurdles. #1 MELT WITH YOU has the foundation this
season should move up on the required DROP as they have not show much figure
progression this season. That could carry to #2 MAJOR MACK one that has a
change in post, though has had favorable trips and going back to the debut was
not on the level of CHUN MONEY on opening day.
Oaklawn Race 4
Post Time 2:18 PM CST
The two Asmussen runners #4 FASTENED and #7 AMERICAN ICON are
capable though the pair are likely to be short given the connections and recent
finishing positions and lack an edge at the projected shorter odds in this field
to look for value; #1 RED LINE OVERDRIVE catches the rail once again and with a
slight 34-day freshening going first off the Moquett claim will look to return
to top form. His race off the bench in February fits on par and following that
event was not at the right level and even timing might have played against him
in the two races that followed wheeling back on shorter rest and slightly higher
par than today.
#2 UNCLE BERLEY makes a belated return though a return to
Oaklawn where he had run in the past and some intent as they return here. He
will require a top effort though could produce that race with the steady works
coming into this event, an assertive rider in R. Vasquez and today’s race shape
with their early speed. That could give them the edge and jump on #10 CRAVENSWORTH
one that has held his form and competitive races at the N2 level, though their
lack of early speed can leave them a lot to do late and number wise must step
forward as well.
The former Dan Ward runner, #3 ASYMMETRIC must also improve
though has had some subtle trips this season with the outside draw and WIDE
trip that followed on 3/2 and less than ideal timing both wheeling back in two
weeks and from the ride on 3/15 and has a slight freshening returning here first
out for K. Jansen.
The trips and ground loss impacted #5 SIR one that must turn
things around though with those slight excuses that could be the reason for the
appearance of “off form” something that could follow sophomore #9 SUPER RENZO
one that takes on older though a slight drop in terms of tag and par with their
early speed that could impact the race shape and try to hold for a share.
Oaklawn Race 5
Post Time 2:50 PM CST
#4 SEVEN FLAT gets another look at this level and wheeling
back from a subtle BTL effort given the trip last month under similar conditions.
This will be the third start off the layoff and has shown progression and
intent race to race and lands back in the right level to compete. #5 LIL SWEET
THANG returns from the same 3/9 common race though despite longer odds than
SEVEN FLAT on the day that should shift here returning from the place finish.
The two outside runners, #8 DANCE SOME MO and #9 CABALLO
FELIZ should keep the pace honest especially with #2 SOUTHERN SUNSET in this
field and on their inside coming off a from running win last out to clear the
N2 condition, something of a slight step up in class here. That scenario could
create enough pace for #7 LONG CROW to target. He brings in form from the races
this season at the N3 level and might benefit from the slight 53-day freshening
they come back from in here.
A solid pace has assisted #1 HARLEEZY in the past and since their
dominant win back in January the connections have kept this one protected and
not as effective in the allowance conditions. They could cycle back to a top
given the time to reset and that timing paired with the class drop back to
claiming company.
Oaklawn Race 6
Post Time 3:22 PM CST
#3 THE REDS drops into straight claiming company and the
connections have done their best to place him where he can compete without
having to make this clear class change throughout his career. His one race back
in claiming company was competitive place finish at KEE with a similar par and
purse last October. The connections were holding to catch the surface switch entered
MTO last month at the FG unable to get that to go and rerouted for this spot.
#6 ROMAN CENTURIAN returns with a slight class and key rider
change (TACTIC- last out) looking to get back on track and to competitive ways.
He has shown run in spots this season in contentious events and while this spot
is no layup, his form should be buried enough to create price compensation here.
#1 PERFECT FLIGHT could land in the right spot to rebound
and with some subtle changes and a confident move to take this spot a slight
step up in class first off the claim. While this one must return to his top
form to compete, he has held his form this season and upgraded from that 3/17 race
when chasing in the pocket on a race day with the course favoring off-the-pace
runners. The rider change to Vazquez, could also signal intent; he was aboard
for a win and their place finish in the La Jolla (G3) going back to the CA
racing days.
Oaklawn Race 7
Post Time 3:54 PM CST
The class drop for #1 YOU VEE CEE was logical looking to
place them where they can compete at the statebred level in the 3/17 common
race. They ran a solid race chasing inside up close to the pace on a day where the
course assisted horses from off the pace and Holding Pattern, the winner from
well off the pace and even #3 STOMPING HOTROD was in TRAFFIC before making
their first run to hold for place. #4 HERTIAGE PARK set the pace on that day,
given the upgrade here though one that must show up and run back to his top
efforts to compete though could be the time and value off the recent running lines
that bring upside. His front end trip could be assisted with #14 MACCO ROCCO on
the AE and one that would bring early speed should that one fail to draw in.
#7 IM THE MACHINE wheels right back for the second start
this meet and could be the right timing and placement for this one. Going back
to the layoff return last month, he had a look off his prior form and runstyle
though on race day was COLD on the board, a sign this one could need the race
and ran to it on the track. The timing coming back in two weeks with the class DROP
and fitness from the WIDE trip could have him sitting on an improved effort and
overlooked in this group.
#12 CHOCTAW ZIP takes what looks like the drop in class however
today’s par is higher than his recent events. His runstyle fits today’s race and
overall has been consistent though could be a shorter number in this field off
the recent finishing positions and if that is the case would look for others
for the top spot, though can be left in the mix.
Oaklawn Race 8
Post Time 4:26 PM CST
#3 FLASHY LASS has improved with each race this season and
while she requires another step forward this could be the time for her. She had
the excuse back on 2/11 and caught the outside post last month and poor WEATHER
conditions all season. #6 PARIS STYLE has held her form and shown progression
at the level and more obvious of the pair with the place finish, the photo with
race winner, Insensitive. #4 WILDWOOD BYE takes a different N1 allowance path
into this race and while she is tough to known off her efforts this season she does
not have much time between starts requires another top effort and today
distance is slightly longer than her ideal and the price could be as well.
#1 ROSE PARADE and #8 MY GOOD FORTUNE book end the field on
post as well as runstyle. ROSE PARADE will take on winners though the
connections patient to wait for this route event rather than run in a similar
N1 allowance last week at the 6f distance. She is not a need the lead type, however
with the complexion of this field she projects to be forward early on and could
take the lead if required. #8 MY GOOD FORTUNE has the pattern of SLOG and
making the late CLOSE something she showed in the 3/7 common race. She comes
into this race with form though a deeper closer and does appear pace/trip
dependent.
Oaklawn Race 9
Post Time 4:58 PM CST
Santa Anita is on break this week and could be part of the
reason Baffert and Juan Hernandez make the trip and lone appearance on the card
with #1 GRAZIA. This filly gives up recency as she returns from the layoff to
make her season al debut, though off her works appears race ready. For this
filly the rail draw is not the most ideal though could make it work in this group
and show early speed something to her debut though on that day she was not
inside.
Looking at some of the “less obvious” fillies in this group
ones that could be overlooked off recent running lines and for their
connections: #5 DIVINE GAL returns to a sprint distance and seems some further
intent with that change and timing back on two week. She had some subtle trips
in those route events and not the distance alone something that could give her
another look going longer at the same time improve off those efforts.
#3 FLOATING BEAUTY had a big test to close out 2023 in the Years
End stakes as she was coming off a dominant maiden win giving up local experience
and a distance/class change for a second start. The timing also was not ideal
for her as ran a huge race first out, the type of effort that could require
recovery to get back to another peak performance and does not have to face Tarifa,
a rival from the 1/20 FG event, one that could be one of the KY Oaks favorites.
FLOATING BEAUTY has that time since to regroup and reset also noting the
connections passing the Sunland Park Oaks as they look to get back on track
here.
Oaklawn Race 10
Post Time 5:28 PM CST
#1 COLT FICTION could be well intended off the claim for the
live connections and a rebound is not out of the question. He was claimed last
month as the favorite and failed in that role though was compromised with the
SLOG and from the inside unable to recover. They have a couple of bullet works
for the new connections and live rider in Torres.
#5 LAMUTANAATTY remains at the claiming level, a change that
looked positive and resulted in the part of the BLANKET finish last month. They
takes a subtle change from that open claiming event first off the Rarick claim
and given a little more time between starts with the 36-days and with a live rider
with Arrieta aboard. #6 CRÈME DE LA CHROME also finds that subtle class change
from open company into this conditional claiming event. They have held their
form this season and in terms of runstyle that fits today’s race shape. His runstyle
is similar to #12 CIBOLO one that must return to his top form on this circuit
and a lateral change in class for the new connections claimed from live connections
back in February.