Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 JOLIE RULER was the second choice behind dominant 1-9 Lily’s Woofy back on 3/31 coming back off the layoff and should benefit from the start and move up in this spot second off class change. The race shape should set up her runstyle with positional speed with a strong late kick – Large Q1 Square.

The Plot position (Q2 Circle) is a downgrade today for  #3 SWEET NELLIE one that returns off a win two weeks ago, this is a slight step up in class and given the connections could be a strong second choice or even favored here. She is drawn inside other “speeds” with #4 HELEN MAE’S SONG upgraded moving off the rail and #5 COOKIN ROSES one that should be on lead at the first call according to Q1 Plot position. #6 THINK BLUE fits at this level on her best day, though might require a race as she returns off the layoff as one that has raced herself into shape in the past and this will be her first local start and just one published move since the layoff to create some reservations as the potential second wagering choice.

#2 MISS WINDY SLEW has back races that fit for this level and could be the time and place for her to turn things around. Her for at Oaklawn was against tougher and making the shift back to Hawthorne she took kick back in both starts and some progression with each start could her run on for a share.  

#2 RAVIN’S TOWN recorded the highest figure in this field when he made his debut last Summer as a juvenile and off that race should be competitive here. He will give up recency to #1 MOONLIGHT ROAD, one that turned in a game effort opening weekend second best to Rivelli runner, Gimme The Candy the even money pacesetting winner, though keying off the pair from last year, Ravin’s Town had the edge over Gimme the Candy at the time of their juvenile season.

Rivelli will also be represented by #5 GAVEL one that makes a return to Hawthorne where he debuted late in the 2023 meet. He has yet to take that big step forward with the races that followed and will look to get on track here and could be the timing with the strong half mile move on 3/16, though still must translate that on the track. Going back to that 9/3 debut race, #7 MIDTERM made his debut that had a showed a ton of run making a WIDE RUSH X_FLOW and one that has a steady strong of works coming back this year and should be the higher of the two returning here. MIDTERM has the one start this season back on 2/16 at Turfway the races cancelled due to very cold temperatures after his race that event produced one next out MSW winner and others came back to improve on numbers. 

While #3 CAT ATTACK appears to hold a pace advantage solo in Quad I and the most likely winner, will take a stab with #4 BABY GUNDIN to attempt the upset. She is not one that holds the same tactical speed though can stalk (Quad I/II Square) she comes into this race with form out of higher level N1 allowance races this year at TP both in par and purse and her dirt figures stack up as a contender to suggest intent making that surface switch and showing up on this circuit. 

The return visuals for #3 NIFF on 3/30 suggest she could be showing a form cycle reversal as she comes off the layoff and this season. Going back to her better days she has form and figures on par for this race and stack up with the others in this field. Today’s race shape could suit her runstyle given “Fire” Contention with four of the five others sharing the EP runstyle and a “bunched” scenario from Surface/Distance to set up the stalking run for  NIFF, the lone P runner in this field. 

With many in this field returning from the 3/24 race; a race where #6 R KATIEBUG was compromised given an EX – EXCUSE on the day losing her race at the GATE (very fractious) and stumbled (TROUBLE_S) -- with some consolation as stablemate Rietta wired the field. R KATIEBUG unable to get into the running showed most of her interest after the wire with a solid GALLOP+ out and wheeling back for this spot should return to front running ways and keep #4 WILDWOOD TRIPLE honest up front. #3 MISS RIVER RAT turned in a BTL effort after breaking SLOG put in a strong CLOSE and will look to be more alert today with the blinkers added and the slight addition of ground works in her favor.

Boyce will also return with #5 RUMBRANDT an better spot for her in this second start of the season (PREP) as she was overmatched against open company on 3/30 though finds a tough test here for the top spot though can find a way into the mix for a minor share. 

This is a tricky race as looking at Surface/Distance Plot, #3 RACETOTHEFINISH has a “lone speed” scenario though folding in Standard (current form) there should be a contentious (above ParLine) duel with #6 RIETTA. Those two could have enough separation for a “best of the speed” outcome though could start up for a stalking trip for #1 WHITE LIES (upgraded both Standard and Surface/Distance) to stalk from the inside and look for first run.

The Surface/Distance positional trip for WHITE LIES sits not far off rivals #5 COMMISSIONER GULCH and #7 CANTOO and those two should present value over #4 RAINY MOUNTAIN one that does not have an edge in this race shape and at the ML would give preference to #2 CHROME ATTACK of that pair. 

#8 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS had a strong look going back to opening weekend when entered at this $8.5k condition and less so on 3/31 in a tougher spot; a tougher spot that was only made worse when encountering legit TROUBLE+ and given a full EX – EXCUSE on the day. They fit back at this level as an individual though in today’s race shape they will be tested from the outside draw, required to clear (avoid early ground loss again) and stamina (Circle) could be a concern late with the Fire Contention and honest 40 SpeedRate as #6 FLYING SAMURAI moves into that group. Those factors could further compromise and present vulnerabilities to #1 GITA’S LAD and #4 DANVILLE on the win end and at their projected shorter odds.

Part of that contention includes #2 DOUBLE THUNDER as a Quad I Square upgrading them of that group and a contender returning with a top effort. The time off after the 2/17 win could be required and the right move as they were clear late but tail flashing aggressively to the wire and they were heavily backed on the day from the assigned 8-1 ML. DOUBLE THUNDER has some back class going back to their juvenile season winning the Bashford Manor (G3) and Sapling Stakes as a juvenile.

#5 ROGUE ELEMENT was not as effective in his graded stakes appearances in his sophomore season, though has has found the right level for his current abilities. He should be overlooked in this race coming back from the 3/31 race with the running line and finishing position. While his excuse was not as obvious as KHOZAN’S SUCCESS, the TACTIC- did not give him his best chance on the day and might have just needed the race and noted rider change today that should keep the number in that double digit territory required to make the longshot case.

There is the scenario where the Fire and SpeedRate catches up to that first flight and upgrades runners from off the pace. #3 ROCKET HOTSHOT and #7 CHICKS FOR FREE return after chasing the lone GITA’S LAD though a Very Slow early and late pace and giving that Quad IV Square pair an upgrade (and downgrade to the last out winner) in this race shape.  

In terms of the early pace, #7 ONE WAY HOME returns to make his second start off the layoff and a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) on 3/24 setting an honest pace where the winner, Impulsiveness sitting a dozen lengths off the early pace at the first call. While they present upside and an upgrade here the pace should still be contentious and #9 UNIFIED WEEKEND could secure the right tracking (Q1 Square) trip, a logical runner in this spot.

#10 NOT VERY GENTLE fits at this level and had sun well off a similar layoff in a similar spot going back to last season. He finish second int eh 3/26 return, though had a different dynamic in the four horse field and lone winner that day. Giles was aboard that day and for the win closing out their 2023 season.

#6 MISTER CHARMING should move up in this second start off the layoff, a PREP going much shorter opening week off  183-day layoff. He will return today back at the route distance where he was effective last season despite coming up short on the win end, though going back to December 2022 he secured that win with R. Blanche, the rider aboard today.