Handicapper Tips & Picks

The analysis starts with #6 UNIFIED WEEKEND one that has been consistent this season and while just short on the win end turned in competitive B/B- efforts.  His form and ability to show early speed in today’s race shape should allow for no excuses even if #4 FLYING SAMURAI does provide some pace pressure.

#1 ROCKET HOTSHOT could sit the inside stalking trip though will be required to hold and keep themselves in the race in order to not get left with too much to do late. That similar trip comes into play for common rival #2 CHICKS FOR FREE and #3 TONALTALITARIAN one giving up recency off the 546-day layoff. 

#5 LUCKY SHOT returns with fitness and the key extra furlong of ground to move them up in this second start of the meet and look to turn the tables on #2 STRANGE ARRANGE returning from the 3/30 common race. LUCKY SHOT has more early speed than they were able to show that day and should be able to sit right with and outside of STRANGE ARRANGE to work a trip and first run on the other three in this field. 

Unlike the race shape in the compact field in Race 2, the early pace (40 SpeedRate) and “Sun” Contention could assist runners form off the pace. That should find value as a result with the wagering likely to fall on both #2 BALI DREAMIN and #3 KAELY’S SISTER, runners that fit as the “horse to beat” role and there is a scenario where they run 1-2 around the track, but that is a less exciting scenario to play and should see #1 FIRST KITTEN up in that early mix.

KAELY’S SISTER can be upgraded from first flight group as she makes her second start off the layoff and returning from the 552-day layoff last month was restless in the GATE pushed through did not run off though was reloaded and once in the gate was off a beat slow and had to RUSH into a Fast early pace.

If the contention does present itself, #4 SHEZ STUCK UP could move up and coming into his race with form from a WIDE trip at a higher allowance condition earlier this month at Oaklawn. #5 RACEDAY ATTIRE holds a similar Plot position and strong late kick (Quad IV Square) though lacking the same recency fits off the 181-day break. 

#7 COMEDIC TIMING should present value in this race off the recent running lines though placed where they can compete and improve for the barn. Since the claim back in February at TP they have been protected racing for a higher purse and par than today’s race. They will race for the $25k tag, though given they were claimed for $8k this is still a confident placement for live connections.

#5 CATEGORY TEN might not be the “most likely” in this spot though he is not far off what it takes to compete here. He will take the rise in class returning from the 4/7 race though that was a sneaky good effort making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW following a compromised (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break over a course that was impacted from earlier WEATHER conditions. 

#6 WINGING WAYS looks to hold a tactical advantage and one that sits over rival #7 BREAKING NEWS as they project to find attention again returning from the pair of place finish efforts this season. WINGING WAYS brings in further upside as they make their second start off the layoff and while they did NO_FINISH the lack of conditioning could have played a role.

Conditioning for a second start off the layoff also upgrades #3 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR as they show up here. They had a hurdle not only coming back from the 255-day layoff but also with the outside post in a full field. The challenges continued as they lunged out of the gate (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) showing run in spots and visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE and Mojica taking over today is also notable.

#5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT has held his form this season and should not be an issue cutting back to the 6f distance today with a solid Surface/Distance Plot position/shape. Class wise today’s race is closer to a lateral change. The change in class is a drop for #1 IRISH VALOR returning from the layoff and another that has some select sprint form that fits to compete with today’s group returning to those efforts and working a trip, something that could require some price compensation.

Centeno does stick with BREAKING NEWS in this spot and had been the regular rider with success aboard #2 BAREFOOTBOOTLEGGER and while certainly there are no knocks on J. Felix taking over the intent still could be called into question. 

This is a contentious event with many in this field moving up making class changes. That includes both Rivelli runners: #2 GIANNO is the more established this season and prior to those two local starts the connections had entered and scratched a couple of times from MCL races and giving him the chance at MSW this move is reasonable at this point. #8 THE RIDGE is less established and did race for a tag in the debut earlier this month. From a visual standpoint he looked to need the race running GREEN and from physical standpoint should handle the STRETCH, the added ground.

Perez also comes into this race with a similar pair with #6 ICE AXE holding that established edge and fitness returning under similar conditions from a competitive race at the level, though also one of the longtime maidens brings some reservations with price compensation needed. #1 LAUREATE will race for a tag today and one that had some public support in his debut last summer and should bring fitness wheeling back in two weeks off the layoff and from a WIDE trip racing in hand/NO_PUSH.

As far as #3 SHARP STICK he could be no surprise and eventually will catch the right group with a top effort to get the job done. The class change out of Oaklawn on this circuit moves him up naturally though for today’s route race, he must show more on the stamina front. 

#7 GETTIN PAID moves up as they make their second start of the meet and subtle changes from the 4/13 race. They were entered at this level back on 4/6 though their runstyle did not fit the race shape that day and found a softer group for the higher $12.5k N2L condition two weeks ago. Today’s par is similar though they draw better today outside horses after taking KICKBACK in that recent event and their early speed should have them in contention early and on Standard (current form) Quad I Square could sit right off #1 OVERDUE HONOR and the quick #4 MAD DRAGON with first run.

MAD DRAGON will be kept in the number with their early speed and Surface/Distance Plot upgrade with separation on the closing runners, #2, UNCLE DICK, #3 GRAPHENE CASSOCK and #5 STOLICH. 

#7 DESSERT FIRST looked to need a start to regain form over this course and a little more ground than the opening day 5f sprint allowance. They return here and in claiming company with a softer race par than the two races since the February win. Today’s par is similar on this circuit to race here last May when in for the $25k tag and turned in a BTL effort that day in the show finish at the 6f distance.

DESSERT FIRST should be able to work out a trip as well as any in this field shown on OptixPLOT as one of the Larger Squares (finishing ability) in the group. While there is a “Snowflake” Contention (light Quad I) and average 22 SpeedRate, many in this field have had their success on or near the lead and could be more assertive in this race and a tougher pace scenario for #8 SHORT STRAW on the step up from the LONE trips this season and lack of finishing ability (Large Circle) in today’s group.    

Don't get too creative here as the opener could be a free spot in the win column. That being said, it is worth using 6-UNIFIED WEEKEND as a single in the multi-race wagers to see if you can catch a price down the line. He's consistent and looks to get the trip in a race with no pace. 1-ROCKET HOTSHOT is at his best over this Hawthorne strip and could be best poised of any to upset as he gets class relief in here. This barn had a big day last Sunday and he could move up if the track is off due to rain. 2-CHICKS FOR FREE is another dropping from the same races as Rocket Hotshot. He was also left to chase Gita's Lad in those spots, running a good second in each. If he gets back to his race two starts back you can expect him to be in the mix for the gimmicks as well.

Trainer Jim Watkins has done a fine job with splitting his stable between Hawthorne and Fairmount Park, running very competitively at both locations. His horses are spotted well as he grabbed a couple of victories here last weekend. 2-STRANGE ARRANGE comes back off a fine win at this level last out. In that spot he stalked the leaders into the lane before responding well in the final 16th. he goes an eighth of a mile further today and could find himself alone on the lead with this bunch. 3-AUTOPILOT makes his first start of the meet as he has a could of works over the track leading into this spot. He ran well against Starter company in Louisiana in his last but may need Strange Arrange and Lucky Shot to hook up on the lead for his best chance to win. 5-LUCKY SHOT chased from the outside in his last and ran on well for second in that spot. He comes back at the same level today and gets to the best distance for him. Don't be surprised if he rates close early and contends late while at a price.

This could be the spot to potential catch a bit of an upset on the first half of the card. 4-SHEZ STUCK UP was entered here earlier in the meet but scratched on the morning of the race, opting for a tough allowance at Oaklawn instead. She held her own in that spot, closing up some ground late. She comes back today to a track she has won over as she could get a good tracking trip behind the two favorites if they battle on the front end. 2-BALI DREAMING is fast from the gate and ran a good second at this level in her last. I expect she is fastest to the front as six furlongs looks to be her preferred distance. 3-KAELY'S SISTER chased in her last and ran on late. That may have been a better than looks on paper effort, considering she was coming off an 18 month layoff into that start. Don't be surprised if she is able to improve off that performance in here.

With the potential for Coni's Coup to possibly be pressed by Action Seeker, things may set up for 2-ITWASTHISBIG as he comes out of a tough allowance in his last. That race was won by Camp Daddy, who dominated on the front end as Itwasthisbig chased from the outside the entire way. With the improved post and second start of the meet he could get a good stalking trip and run down the leaders in the lane. 4-PATH TO SUCCESS should get that pace to chase as he comes out of the same race at Itwasthisbig in his last. He rated back in that spot and was further behind than normal with Camp Daddy scampering away but at the wire he was only a half-length off Itwasthisbig and closing quickly. Don't be surprised if he is able to run by them all in this spot for a barn that is off to a fine start. 6-MCMONEY returns from Gulfstream as he raced well against similar in his last. He rated mid-pack in that spot before rallying in the lane. With the move to the Hawthorne dirt he should be able to save ground early and benefit from the long stretch run.

An intriguing race here with some class droppers and potentially not a ton of early pace. Hoping that 8-THE RIDGE could be poised to steal this race as he stretches out off his debut effort. He faced a bit better in that spot but had trouble from the start as the rider wrapped up in the lane. With clear sailing early in here he could potentially run comfortably on the lead and hang around late. 3-SHARP STICK is going to take some action as he takes the class drop into today's race. He ran a decent race around two turns at Oaklawn two starts back and held his own from the inside in his last. With the class drop and stretch in distance he's the other to potentially show speed as he appears to be the horse to beat. 6-ICE AXE comes back off an improved effort in his last. That was the first start back in six months as he settled at the back early before running on late. If the top two choices hook up on the front end in here, he may be the one running them down in the lane.

The potential for a contested early pace along with the class drop was enough for me to go to 7-GETTIN PAID today. He was entered at this level earlier in the meet before scratching to take on tougher. he raced ok that day behind a strong winner. With the drop in class and added distance he should be able to close in the lane. 1-OVERDUE HONOR broke his maiden on the front end on the grass last October. He is spotted well for his return as he has been working consistently. He will take his share of action in here as we will see if he can shake loose early on the front end. 4-MAD DRAGON is the other with speed who comes out of the same race as Gettin Paid in his last. He was sent hard early in that spot but gave way in the lane. With the class drop today, and not as much pace to contend upfront, he should be forwardly placed once again but won't have to work as hard to get there.

Looking to turn his form around, this appears to be a confidence boosting spot for 4-FRANKEL BABY. After back to back scores at Fairmount to close 2022 and open 2023, he took on much tougher and the results showed. With some time off and a strong workout pattern on the class drop, He should be able to rate close early and run on late. 2-PALACE MAGIC is a horse I have always liked as she tends to put forth a good effort more times than not. She has run in the top two in 9 of 15 Hawthorne starts and has enough tactical speed to rate close to  the pace. This is her best distance and a wet track will move her up as well. 7-DESSERT FIRST has faced tougher in her last couple, running a good race despite a troubled trip two back. She drops back down today as she looks to get back into form but can't be dismissed for a barn that is starting to wake up.

6-UNIFIED WEEKND has had two local starts and finished second in both. He was claimed from both races, though it was the trainer that brought him here that claimed him back. This will be only his third race on dirt. Can easily improve enough to take this. 1-ROCKET HOTSHOT drops. His barn has been winning at a 28% clip so far this meet and 29% for the year. There’s little legitimate speed in this race so this runner should be prominent throughout. 2-CHICKS FOR FREE has been better sprinting but he ran well at this distance in his first start of the meet and finished a couple lengths ahead of Rocket Hotshot.

2-STRANGE ARRANGE was favored in his local debut and lived up to his popularity. This speedy gelding tracked closely early but was able to draw off in the stretch. He could hold a considerable speed advantage over his rivals. Guessing he’ll take this from flag fall to finish. 3-AUTOPILOT races here for the first time. He’s racing for a red-hot barn with a hot rider in the irons. But he does like to come off the pace and he could be at a small disadvantage in a race with little speed. 5-LUCKY SHOT ran very well in his first start of the year. He came from off the pace to finish second to top choice. However, he often displayed good speed in the past. Might be sent to take on top pick head to head for the lead.

3-KAELY’S SISTER deserves another chance. She ran well enough in her local debut but sparse drills going into that race might have left her a bit short, especially coming off a year and a half layoff. But they worked her a bullet four furlongs on Sunday. Think she’ll be far better prepared for the top barn. 2-BALI DREAMIN led much of the way in her first local race of the year, holding top pick safe throughout and finishing ahead of that mare by a length and a half. But she did have the advantage of three prior races this year. That advantage might have disappeared though she still looms as the one to catch. 1-FIRST KITTEN doesn’t seem to be a match for either of the top pair, at least on paper, but she has seven wins and another six money finishes from 16 local starts.

Tough race. But think 2-ITWASTHISBIG could hold a slight edge. He finished second in his first start of the meet. But, he was well behind the winner of the race and he narrowly edged out the third-place finisher. On the other hand, he owns good speed and he started from the 11 hole in that race but drew far better from the inside for this. 4-PATH TO SUCCESS finished right behind top pick in last. However, he was the recipient of a contested early pace which helped to set up for his good late move. Not certain he'll get the same kind of pace scenario today. 3-ACTION SEEKER tired fighting for the lead in his first start of the meet and moves up in class for this race. However, he was claimed by red hot connections form last, the same barn as top choice, and he did beat that runner in his previous start in Louisiana. 

He does tend to tire but 6-WINGING WAYS appears to be the only real speed in the race. He finished third in a shorter race in his first start of the meet but had only a pair of slow drills going into that event. His barn sports a 26% win average with runners making their second start after a layoff. he might be able to just coast on the lead. 7-BREAKING NEWS, the likely favorite, could live up to his odds. He finished second in both races this meet and went off as the favorite in last. He's the only one likely to challenge top pick for the lead, if they choose to send him. 1-IRISH VALOR certainly figures. He's dropping in class to make his first local start of the year. However, he is primarily a router and he hasn't effectively sprinted since early in his career, back in 2017. 

This is one of those races when you can make a case for just about any of the runners, as well as a case against the same group. 3-SHARP STICK is steadily dropping down the claiming ladder. This will be the easiest field he has yet to meet. He finished third versus better here a couple weeks ago. Might get it done at this level. The race by 2-GIANNO two starts back would almost be a guaranteed winner today but he ran back and lost ground throughout in his next start. But, he is dropping into maiden claimers for the first time. Hard to overlook for the top barn. 9-PERFORMANCE PLUS had three races at this level in Louisiana and finished in the money in all of them. He was overmatched in his first start here but the drop back to the right level could get him headed back in the right direction. 8-THE RIDGE, stablemate of Gianno, finished far back in his only start but he's dropping and stretching out and could wind up with the early lead.

Not really comfortable with any selection in this race but going to go with 3-GRAPHENE CASSACK. He's one of many speed runners in here but he has been able to lay off the pace in the past and run at them late. 1-OVERDUE HONOR, the morning-line favorite, graduated in his last start, leading every step of the way, racing against maiden specials, on the turf, and the race took place in October. Now he's dropping into a bottom level non winners of two on dirt. Plus, he's one of many in here with speed. Wouldn't be surprised if he wired this field but wouldn't be surprised if he didn't. The heated pace of this race would seem to set up perfectly for 6-JUST BECAUSE. He was competitive sprinting in Louisiana before shipping here and losing by 36 lengths when they stretched him out. Now he's turning back in distance but that last race took place only a week ago. Not sure he'll be ready.

4-FRANKEL BABY drops sharply in her first start of the year and her first for this barn. She has had some outstanding works since getting here. Her previous speed figures suggest she's slower that many of her rivals in here but think she's about to wake up in a big way. 7-DESSERT FIRST was overmatched in last two and might still be in too deep at this level but she did run well in limited starts here last year and she will be facing easier than she has so far in 2024. 1-MUSED might be headed to the lawn but she deserves a chance in this spot. This will not only be her first race here, but it will be her first on dirt. Adding blinkers could help her focus.8-SHORT STRAW has been racing "slower" than some of her rivals in here but she wired the last two fields she faced. Might be dangerous on the lead.

Pick4: 1,2,5,6,7 / 2 / 1,3,6,7 / 5,7,8,9 - $40

Race 5: 1 - 6 - 7

The favorite here is on the outside in the #7 Breaking News for Hugo Rodriguez, who has distance concerns in my view as does the #6 Winging Ways who I have 3rd and 2nd respectively. I am going to look to the inside with the #1 Irish Valor (7-2) for John Arnett. He’s coming off a layoff, but won last year at Hawthorne and is now 2/2 ITM over the strip. Dropping to the lowest competition in years for Irish Valor will be the key in the race where I think others have some question marks.

Race 6: 2 - 3 - 6

There are many different ways you can go in this race run around 2 turns. With speed signed on, I think the best horse to go with in this race will be the #2 Gianno (3-1). For those that are familiar with Midwest/Chicago racing in recent times, you know the name Larry Rivelli sticks out and for good reason. Winning almost 40% of races so far this meet in 28 starts, his horses are always worth a look, especially when there is a decent price involved. This fact, coupled with the prospective trip and Rivelli placing his horses where they can win, makes this horse extremely interesting and my top pick in this contest.

Race 7: 1 - 6 - 7

In the penultimate race at Hawthorne on Saturday, there are many different ways you can go although there is a decently heavy favorite. #1 Overdue Honor (8-5) for Louie Roussel and Julio Felix is my top choice. A turf horse who has run good races on the dirt previously, he has figs that make a lot of sense. In these cheaper claimers, I always tend to side with speed especially when there is a lack of pace in the field due to a lot of runners not willing to pass others. This bodes well for Overdue Honor, who looks to take them all the way with a perfect post. It also does not hurt that Felix has been hot to start the meet, coming off last weekend’s Illinois Derby Victory.

Race 8: 7 - 8 - 5

The final race on Saturday consists of nine runners in a $12,500 beaten claimer going six furlongs, and there is one horse who seems to have a decent pace advantage in this race. That is the #8 Short Straw. However, he will be facing a little tougher today, as he is facing winners of multiple races for the first time. I do believe he is live given the pace scenario and the ML odds of 10-1, but my eyes went elsewhere to the #7 Dessert First (7-2) for Elias Lopez. Elias tried her twice at the optional claiming level at Fair Grounds and Hawthorne, and it just did not work out in her favor, so she returns to where I think she can be very competitive, especially on numbers. Sitting a nice trip behind the lone speed might be exactly what she needs to get back in the winner’s circle over a track she has relished in the past, running in the money 3 of 4 attempts.

T 8 Lexus Angel 7 Billie Jean Queen 6 Kinnder Hotblood

P 9 Do Better 8 Saulsbrook Ian 7 T H McMurry

T 3 Convoy Hall 6 Captain Wanis 5 The Canam Banker

P 6 Ricardoshillyshally 1 Wikipedia 7 Best Night Ever

P 10 Nazare 1 Stop The Shootin 6 Southwind Sambucca

P 7 Le Bec Fin 4 Think Ahead 3 Lightning Lizzie

P 1 Max Patrick 2 Four By Four 6 Jmr Speak Away

P 1 Write Me A Rose 6 Wry 5 Sauble Ace

P 3 Capitano Italiano 2 Lets Tie One On 1 Major Hill

P 3 Poseidon Seelster 4 Stone Carver 5 Emmetts Buddy

P 1 Code Cracker 7 Bayfield Beach 5 Toronto

P 11 Uncle Shank 7 Reactor Now 4 Cold Creek Queso

BACHELOR STAKES: 

To follow the pattern of sprint stakes this season Steve Asmussen comes into the race with multiple runners and contenders with the pair here. #6 VALENTINE CANDY is the more established not just of the stablemates but in this field. He has run competitively here this season in the stakes sprints and should continue to hold back on this circuit and one turn reuniting with Santana the rider that has been aboard for the debut MSW win at SAR, the Ozark as well as the pair of minor finishes last October at KEE.

#5 CATS BY FIVE has improved with each and every start and off their form upgraded into this stakes event. There was no catching #2 FROST FREE when the two met on 3/1 as FROST FREE ran a huge race that day setting a solid pace on the lead, though was LONE on the lead and could find contention up front with the complexion of this field as others are just as quick early and should be kept honest with #7 DREWMANIA one of those just as quick and drawn to the outside will likely have to send.

#4 TIME FOR TRUTH has legit sprint speed and some class to him as they reroute and cut back from the AR Derby (G1) last month. Number wise he ran a huge race, live on debut, that race recording the highest figure in the field. The effort from #1 BERGEN was close from the Jimmy Winkfield win over an off track at AQU though might have been on the better part of the track. He will be out to show he can duplicate that effort as what is likely needed to win here and should get a lot of attention for the connections.

#3 MARKET STREET being one of those runners and like CATS BY FIVE he has improved this year and one that might have been telling the connections he was a sprinter all along. He broke his maiden on debut sprinting at ELP and was quickly rushed into the two graded stakes races last summer at SAR before the distance change. Prior to the sprint allowance win three weeks ago he turned in a sneaky good effort in the Advent stakes on just 13-days rest. 

DIG A DIAMOND STAKES: 

#3 HOOSIER PHILLY will stretch back out to a route and might have required the conditioning more than the added ground last month in the Matron returning from the layoff and first start over this course. She should have no excuses on that front wheeling right back under 30-days and off a WIDE trip and three strong published works since. The presence of Bejarano aboard is also notable as had been aboard #7 STELLAR LILY this season and Santana the rider that started out with her takes back over today.

#6 OLIVIA TWIST follows a similar second off pattern and some confidence coming into this race off the win last month at SUN. She has form over this course and competitive races and figures last year in the stakes events and those races make her a major contender in this spot.

#8 CRYPTO MO could come in with the same plan as she makes her second start of the year and decent place finish three weeks ago and return to Oaklawn. She has a start over this course last season that race was first off the layoff, contested at 6f and 6^th place result though visually suggested she could improve and did just that in her sophomore season closing out the year winning the Iowa Oaks (G3) on the front end. She projects to take up that role here though should find company up front and will be tested.

With some options in this field, Arrieta shifting to #2 I’M THE BOSS OF ME over #1 WILDWOOD BYE is notable for this race and looking for that belated win and along with he distance change stretching out for the first time in a long time and third time overall. WILDWOOD BYE wheels right back once again and one that finished as part of the BLANKET at the wire on 3/30 along with 35 ABSINTHE returning here and could be intent for her and this stakes race second off the layoff though must improve overall and in with this more established group.